2018 Price: $467,600
2017 Average: 85
2017 Games: 19
Past Averages (2016 – 2012): 89, 83, 67, 68, 53
2017 IN SHORT
Many coaches have forgotten that before the 2017 season, Tom Lynch was widely believed to be ready to usurp the mantle of the pre-eminent tall forward in the league from Buddy and Josh Kennedy. It is understandable that many of us forgot about those claims because he simply didn’t take the next step and caused his Supercoaches, and ex- head coach, great pain.
While he managed to average the same number of possessions across the season as 2016, he took less contested marks and kicked 22 less goals than in 2016. Where in 2016 he kicked 4 or more goals on 10 occasions, he only managed this feat on 2 occasions in 2017. This seemed to be due to poor supply from a struggling side and niggling injuries which he attempted to play though.
Finally Lynch succumbed to a posterior cruciate ligament injurthy in Round 20 against Fremantle and he missed the final three matches of the season.
- Lynch is priced 10 points per match below his 2016 price.
- In a year where there are limited forward options, Lynch would be the fifth best forward if he had maintained his 2016 average.
- Due to his ability to take a contested mark he is not absolutely reliant on goals to score SC points, with 3 of his 7 tonnes coming from just 2 goal (twice) and 3 goal efforts.
- Maybe a new coach can fix the ugly ball movement at the Suns and help out the forward line. Perhaps Stewie Dew may even bring the Sydney practice of pushing forwards further up the ground to the Gold Coast. Here’s hoping!
- Lynch will be motivated to perform to maximize that juicy free agency contract at the end of 2018.
- If it looks like a tall forward and quacks like a tall forward, it is probably going to score like a tall forward. Ie: inconsistently. Last season his high was 161 but his low was 29 points (in China) and he also threw in a 37, 39 and a 43 just to prove his potato shape.
- In the past, contract talks have ruined the years of better men than Tom Lynch. Will it motivate him or will he lie in the corner in the foetal position?
- More importantly, does he even give a shit? Rumour has stated that Lynch has one foot out the door and in black and white or brown and gold already.
- Even if Dew can turn around the decline of the Suns, they are still going to be cellar dwellers which does not make life easy for any forwards, let alone tall ones.
THE LOGICAL CONCLUSION
With a full preseason, Lynch is sure to improve on his 2017 effort but it is impossible to know whether he can attain the required 95 point average to be a top 6 forward. If we had plenty of choice, I would not go near a tall forward but it is difficult to confidently select any Supercoach forwards in 2018.
Logic states that if he looks fit and he’s firing in the preseason, you could do a lot worse than Lynch. Just don’t forget his Round 10 bye after he visits China.
As I mentioned above, players can respond one of two ways to media speculation about their contract status. How Lynch responds will have a lot to do with how Gold Coast performs overall. My gut tells me that Stewie Dew will do to Gold Coast what Bolton is doing to the Blues; create a clear structure and game plan that will give players hope (or the illusion of hope) of better days.
While the Suns will still wallow towards the bottom of the ladder, I see a healthy 95 point average on the cards for Tommy.
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