2019 JLT Game Chat – Geelong v Essendon

Written by Huttabito on March 7 2019

Geelong v Essendon at GMHBA Stadium, Thursday, March 7, 7.10pm AEDT

GEELONG
B: J.Clark 6, M.Blicavs 46, M.O’Connor 42
HB: J.Henry 38, H.Taylor 7, T.Stewart 44
C: G.Miers 32, P.Dangerfield 35, M.Duncan 22
HF: Q.Narkle 19, G.Rohan 23, T.Atkins 30
F: G.Ablett 4, E.Ratugolea 17, L.Dahlhaus 40
FOLL: R.Stanley 1, J.Selwood 14, T.Kelly 11
I/C: L.Henderson 25, B.Parfitt 3, C.Constable 18, C.Guthrie 29, S.Menegola 27, D.Fort 28, Z.Guthrie 39, T.Hawkins 26  

Emerg: J.Cunico 31, W.Buzza 12, J.Parsons 34, J.Jones 41

ESSENDON
B: P.Ambrose 29, M.Brown 28, A.Saad 42
HB: A.Francis 10, M.Hurley 18, A.McGrath 1
C: D.Heppell 21, J.Stringer 25, M.Guelfi 35
HF: D.Smith 5, D.Myers 23, D.Zaharakis 11
F: M.Baguley 12, J.Daniher 6, A.McDonald-Tipungwuti 43
FOLL: T.Bellchambers 2, D.Shiel 9, J.Ridley 14
I/C: C.McKenna 45, D.Parish 3, B.Ham 33, S.Draper 38, K.Langford 4, D.Clarke 37, Z.Merrett 7, O.Fantasia 13  

Emerg: J.Stewart 17, J.Laverde 15, S.McKernan 44, J.Long 34

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38 thoughts on “2019 JLT Game Chat – Geelong v Essendon”

      1. Clearly yeah but with the cats list and the amount they rotate new boys, both mids, I’d think one will get the game time over the other.

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  1. Ridley in everything early just such an awkward price unfortunately.
    Need TKelly to do something tonight or i’m looking for a new F3.

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  2. Finally getting to watch a bit of footy!
    Danger looking ominous with 18 touches already…..
    Francis looks very composed. Not sure about his SC relevance but he’s a very good defender in the making……

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  3. I think I have to go Kelly over Smith at F3… however this leaves Bye structure at 1-6-6, reckon that’s ok?

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        1. AllSaints has argued (quite convincingly) that you ideally don’t want more than two premium forwards and defenders, and three midfielders from each bye round before said bye, because otherwise you’ll be forced to field a non-playing player, thus making the best-18 scoring out of 21 players rather than 22.

          However, dual-position players can be considered from the perspective of more than one line, and so change the equation a bit.

          Furthermore, although I think that this is a good structure to aim for, there are a couple of exceptions to this:
          • If a player offers too much value to pass up, then don’t pass them up simply because you’re trying to stick to some ideal bye-structure – you’ll end up regretting it.
          • Don’t put off worthwhile upgrades just to maintain this structure. You’re far better off heading into a bye with 19 players of which 18 are premiums, than you are going in with 22 of which only 15 are premiums.

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  4. Oh F__- S — !!! Didn’t realise the match was on!! Dammit! – Oh, howdy all!!

    So, based on stats on FF – looks like risk of starting Smith, Menegola and Dahlhaus (just saw his interview saying he’s playing up front) and looks like Geelong rooks – Clark and Constable are must haves?? – that about it?

    Also, Merrett is questionable?

    Anyway anyone got some good thoughts / obs?

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    1. How are they going to break into the 22 is the question, as remember there were 26 tonight with 1 or 2 still out. Who has to make way and who is more needed. Constable looks good but how do you fit him into a best 22 at Geelong? I doubt they will give the rookies a run for the sake of it.

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      1. yeah, I know – we need some though … otherwise finding the cash is an issue and playing mid pricers makes me go yuk!!

        Oh, Fort also not an answer at R3 – what is everyone thinking there now? Play a loophole ruck from hawks or or dockers (best early run of late games) or find another option??

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        1. I might have a R3 that is a chance for a game just not round 1 so he may start making cash after 5-6 rounds if i’m lucky. If not it might just be a 102k ruck loophole

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      2. That being said, i think the commentators were saying this about Atkins, so hopefully a rookie gets a start for Geelong, but if it is Clark be mindful of Tuohy as he may force him out round 2

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    2. I didn’t see the match, but going by the numbers, I’d say you’re probably safe locking in Clark and Constable (pending round 1 selection, of course). Atkins could also be a not-entirely-terrible option, depending on the number of other prospects available.

      Merrett will be fine. Kade Simpson was scoring 60s this time last year. Standard-issue established-premium JLT performance.

      The forwards you mentioned are interesting. I’ve been worried all pre-season that Smith might have his midfield minutes reduced due to Shiel’s arrival. I’m not sure we can definitively say anything one way or the other yet, but personally I’ll probably avoid starting him, and wait and see how he goes once the real thing starts. Menegola should be fine as long as his role doesn’t substantially change, at least in theory. I can see why people would be tempted by Dahlhaus – he consistently averaged 90+ before last year, and is relatively inexpensive given that history. Still, tonight’s numbers aside, he has been slated to mostly play forward, so I’m not convinced. Like Smith, I’ll wait and see how he goes once the season starts.

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  5. Looks like I won’t have a single Bomber in my starting team … and I’m doubting that they will make the eight.
    Seriously considering Selwood… excellent JLT series and solid pre-season..

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    1. Don’t forget that Hawthorn lost to Carlton in JLT2 last year. Now, as a Blues fan I’d be thrilled if Essendon missed the eight after all the pre-season hype, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

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      1. Surely Essendon get it together this year? They put together some nice form in the latter half of the 2018 season, knocking off some solid teams- including my premiership Eagles.

        You’d think the addition of Shiel and the time to consolidate their game and get fit would go a long way. Bear in mind, if they’d not lost to the Bulldogs, Carlton and Freo last year they would have finished just outside the top four.

        Puzzling JLT performances from the Bombers indeed.

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  6. GEELONG

    153 – Joel Selwood
    128 – Patrick Dangerfield
    118 – Luke Dahlhaus
    110 – Tim Kelly
    109 – Rhys Stanley
    107 – Harry Taylor
    91 – Jack Henry
    80 – Gary Rohan
    80 – Tom Atkins
    79 – Mitch Duncan
    79 – Tom Hawkins
    74 – Mark Blicavs
    74 – Gary Ablett
    72 – Cam Guthrie
    72 – Esava Ratugolea
    67 – Jordan Clark
    61 – Charlie Constable
    59 – Brandan Parfitt
    59 – Sam Menegola
    37 – Lachie Henderson
    35 – Mark O’Connor
    31 – Tom Stewart
    31 – Gryan Miers
    20 – Quinton Narkle
    17 – Zach Guthrie
    13 – Darcy Fort

    ESSENDON

    98 – Dyson Heppell
    94 – Jordan Ridley
    88 – Adam Saad
    81 – Dylan Shiel
    79 – Tom Bellchambers
    76 – Michael Hurley
    71 – Andy McGrath
    71 – Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
    63 – Zach Merrett
    61 – Aaron Francis
    61 – Mitch Brown
    54 – Darcy Parish
    53 – Matt Guelfi
    52 – Jake Stringer
    51 – Kyle Langford
    51 – Connor McKenna
    48 – David Zaharakis
    48 – Orazio Fantasia
    48 – David Myers
    47 – Mark Baguley
    45 – Devon Smith
    40 – Joe Daniher
    38 – Patrick Ambrose
    12 – Sam Draper
    7 – Brayden Ham
    6 – Dylan Clarke

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    1. TOG %:

      Joel Selwood: 79
      Luke Dahlhaus: 67
      Tim Kelly: 77
      Patrick Dangerfield: 68
      Jack Henry: 88
      Harry Taylor: 77
      Mitch Duncan: 86
      Tom Hawkins: 82
      Sam Menegola: 80
      Rhys Stanley: 76
      Cameron Guthrie: 69
      Gary Rohan: 73
      Jordan Clark: 75
      Mark O’Connor: 95
      Charlie Constable: 50
      Tom Stewart: 41
      Gryan Miers: 45
      Gary Ablett: 69
      Mark Blicavs: 82
      Esava Ratugolea: 82
      Tom Atkins: 68
      Lachie Henderson: 90
      Brandan Parfitt: 69
      Quinton Narkle: 39
      Darcy Fort: 29
      Zach Guthrie: 45
      :
      Dyson Heppell: 65
      Dylan Shiel: 79
      Adam Saad: 85
      David Zaharakis: 90
      Zach Merrett: 59
      Michael Hurley: 92
      Jordan Ridley: 81
      Kyle Langford: 54
      Tom Bellchambers: 90
      Andrew McGrath: 76
      Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti: 85
      Mitch Brown: 92
      Jake Stringer: 81
      Devon Smith: 71
      Matt Guelfi: 87
      Aaron Francis: 82
      Conor McKenna: 72
      David Myers: 61
      Orazio Fantasia: 61
      Darcy Parish: 46
      Mark Baguley: 87
      Joe Daniher: 73
      Patrick Ambrose: 96
      Sam Draper: 13
      Dylan Clarke: 9
      Brayden Ham: 12

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    2. How are y’all procuring SC scores? My favorite thing to do during games not involving my team is to monitor SC scores and get excited when one of my players racks up points, but my usual site isn’t showing them.

      Anyone know another way?

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  7. Ridley looks good. What odds of getting a decent run, given the defensive injuries at Essendon?

    Not much else Essendon looking interesting.

    Anyone thinking Shiel, Smith or Merrett must seriously be reconsidering…

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    1. Merrett’s TOG for both games has been 36% and 59%
      Smith 48% and 71%

      During the real stuff, they won’t be under 80%. JLT form for premiums can often be misleading, so best not to read into it.

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      1. SC aside, neither performed well.. and based on ppm their SC scores were sub 90.
        Should we discount Danger, Selwood and Kelly cos the Bonbers were just cruising.. or does the same claim apply and we should view their scores as unders ?

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  8. Personally see Clark and Atkins lining up round 1 for Geelong but constable just missing out.

    Clark has looked amazing and is prepared to take the game on and can also take a good mark. And for supercoach his kick to handball ratio is great (11 touches all kicks last night)

    Atkins is a tackling and pressure machine. Just what a geelong forward line has been lacking. Knows the club well after being in the VFL for years and is exactly the type of small forward we need.

    Constable hasn’t done much wrong but theres just a few too many names ahead of him at this stage. I want him to play (especially ahead of Cam Guthrie who i simply won’t get into because his just no good, but Scott won’t drop him anyway. Just like when Motlop continued to get games) but with Dangerfield, Selwood, Duncan, Kelly, Menegola, Dahlhaus, Parfitt not sure he fits. Constable is also a pure midfielder. Not sure he can go forward or back.

    Merret has given me concern (espicially when he was starting half forward) but his been in my team all pre season and i picked him for a reason. If given the game time he goes 105 absolute minimum. Only reason he leaves the team is if i need funds and have to select a Steele or Taranto instead.

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