2019 SuperCoach AFL – Rookie Bible

Written by Schwarzwalder on December 4 2018

(Originally appeared in the Herald Sun on 3/12/18 & written by Al Paton)

 

Everyone loves a bargain at the AFL draft — and in SuperCoach.

And this year there is a long list of potential fairytale stories, with eight players recruited from the VFL and other second-tier comps in the national draft, plus another 10 mature-age lifelines in the rookie draft — not counting players redrafted by their own clubs.

All of those players are ready to play from Round 1, giving them a headstart on juniors recruited straight out of the under-18 competition.

They were also late draft picks, which means they won’t cost us much in SuperCoach.

We’ve heard a lot about the top-end picks, although the hype doesn’t always translate to on-field performance in year one.

Sam Walsh could be the exception to the rule after averaging 158 in the TAC Cup and 141 in the under-18 championships. But we’ll have to fork out more than $200,000 to add him to our squads.

 

The players listed below are all a lot cheaper, and bring immeasurable feel-good factor. Here’s who we’ll be keeping a close eye on over the next four months in the countdown to Round 1.

CASH COW ALERT

BEN CAVARRA (WESTERN BULLDOGS, PICK 45)

Recruited from: Williamstown VFL

Estimated 2019 SuperCoach starting price: $117,300

2018 SuperCoach average: 97

Cavarra was overlooked in multiple drafts due to his size (175cm). He kicked 34 goals for Williamstown this year playing as a pressure forward, but has enough strings to his bow to average a very healthy 97 SuperCoach points a game. Don’t forget he won the 2013 Morrish Medal and two Frankston Dolphins best-and-fairests as a midfielder. Likely to start on the bench in a lot of SuperCoach teams.

Ben Cavarra tries to break a tackle in the VFL. Picture: Yuri Kouzmin

 

MATTHEW PARKER (ST KILDA, PICK 47)

Recruited from: South Fremantle, WAFL

Estimated 2019 SuperCoach starting price: $117,300

2018 SuperCoach average: 76

The explosive forward — who you can’t miss with his neck tattoos — could be our best bet for an early price spike as he hits the AFL physically ready and mentally determined to make an impact. Inspired by Geelong star and SuperCoach sensation Tim Kelly, Parker kicked 27 goals — and laid 84 tackles — in the WAFL this year, and Saints coach Alan Richardson believes his speed and power will suit Marvel Stadium. “(I was) just sitting there watching the draft and the Saints pick came around … they said my name and I didn’t believe it,” Parker told the West Australian. I burst into tears … to think that me of all people gets this opportunity. My job is now to go after it, 110 per cent.”

 

DARCY FORT (GEELONG, PICK 65)

Recruited from: Central District, SANFL

Estimated 2019 SuperCoach starting price: $117,300

2018 SuperCoach average: 123

Mark him down as a sneaky bench option — and he could be a lot more. The Cats need a ruckman and the 205cm 25-year-old could be the man. He has to overtake the inconsistent Zac Smith, injury-prone Rhys Stanley and fellow mature-ager Ryan Abbott, but his numbers stack up. The former Geelong junior averaged 16 disposals and 42 hitouts (including a crazy 72 in one game) in the SANFL. According to his player profile, his nickname is Plow and his favourite hobby outside footy is “fighting corruption”. Should be fun to watch.

Is Darcy Fort the answer to Geelong’s ruck issues? Picture: Roger Wyman
Get used to seeing Nick Hind explode off half-back. Picture: Michael Klein

NICK HIND (ST KILDA, PICK 54)

Recruited from: Essendon VFL

Estimated 2019 SuperCoach starting price: $117,300

2018 SuperCoach average: 87

St Kilda needs some dash out of the backline and that’s exactly what Hind brings. The 24-year-old is ready to slot straight into the best 22 after averaging 22 disposals and four marks a game for Essendon’s VFL team in 2018. Ranked fourth in the VFL this year for score assists.

 

 

BRETT BEWLEY (FREMANTLE, PICK 59)

Recruited from: Williamstown VFL

Estimated 2019 SuperCoach starting price: $117,300

2018 SuperCoach average: 103

When his VFL club likens him to Tom Scully, we take notice. Bewley ranked No.1 in the VFL for effective long kicks last season and averaged 25 disposals a game. “He’s ready-made to go as far as we would be concerned and I dare say obviously Fremantle think the same if they’ve looked at him through the national draft,” Williamstown footy manager Stephen Soulsby told the West Australian. “I would imagine they would like to see him play as an outside mid initially and then potentially throw him inside over time.”

Brett Bewley (right) joins Dockers training this week.

CALLUM WILKIE (ST KILDA ROOKIE)

Recruited from: North Adelaide SANFL (age 22)

Estimated 2019 SuperCoach starting price: $126,400

2018 SuperCoach average: 99

SuperCoach players love a ball-winning backman and Wilkie ticks all the right boxes after starring as an intercept and playmaking defender for North Adelaide in its stunning SANFL premiership triumph. A big ball-winner as a junior, he now has four years of senior footy under his belt culminating in a best-and-fairest this year after an outstanding season in which he averaged 26 disposals and nine marks.

North Adelaide premiership defender Callum Wilkie is now a Saints rookie. Picture: Naomi Jellicoe

PUT ON YOUR WATCH LIST

MARTY HORE (MELBOURNE, PICK 56)

Recruited from: Collingwood VFL

Estimated 2019 SuperCoach starting price: $117,300

2018 SuperCoach average: 102

Key defenders are usually a no-go zone in SuperCoach but Hore is worth a look. He ranked first for effective kicks in the VFL this year and second for total marks and intercept possessions (Sam Collins, now at Gold Coast, was No.1 in both categories). The Demons weren’t able to settle on a defensive six in 2017, with Sam Frost and Joel Smith given opportunities and Bayley Fritsch spending time there. Hore will be part of the mix next year, along with star recruit Steven May and returning knee injury victim Jake Lever.

Marty Hore demonstrates his intercept marking ability. Picture: Michael Klein
The Cats know what Tom Atkins can do. Picture: Mark Dadswell

TOM ATKINS (GEELONG ROOKIE)

Recruited from: Geelong VFL (age 23)

Estimated 2019 SuperCoach starting price: $114,400

2018 SuperCoach average: 107

It won’t be easy getting a gig in a star-studded midfield but we know the Cats love a mature-age recruit (think Tim Kelly, Sam Menegola and Co). Atkins averaged 22 disposals and nine tackles for Geelong’s VFL team this year.

WILL HAYES (WESTERN BULLDOGS, PICK 78)

Recruited from: Footscray VFL

Estimated 2019 SuperCoach starting price: $117,300

2018 SuperCoach average: 97

Hayes led Footscray for disposals (26 per game) and contested possessions (10 per game) on the way to winning the best-and-fairest. The 23-year-old son of horse trainer David Hayes is noted for his endurance, finishing third in the comp for inside-50s and second for uncontested possessions.

Will Hayes has been rewarded for a great year at Footscray. Picture: Mark Dadswell

TOM WILKINSON (NORTH MELBOURNE ROOKIE)

Recruited from: Southport (age 22)

Estimated 2019 SuperCoach starting price: $102,400

2018 SuperCoach average: 93

The small forward was passed over in four drafts before being snagged by the Kangaroos with pick 41 in this year’s rookie draft. He won a best-and-fairest with Sandringham in the VFL, took a year off, returned with Williamstown then jetted to Queensland to play for Southport Sharks in the VFL in 2018, kicking 35 goals. North’s Round 1 team is hard to pick but there could be a spot in the forward pocket, with Wilkinson competing with the likes of Kayne Turner, Jy Simpkin and Tarryn Thomas.

LACHLAN SCHULTZ (FREMANTLE, PICK 57)

Recruited from: Williamstown VFL

Estimated 2019 SuperCoach starting price: $117,300

2018 SuperCoach average: 79

Schultz was on a plumbing job when his boss called to tell him he had been drafted. He is a small (177cm) forward who can push into the midfield, potentially inheriting the role of veteran Hayden Ballantyne. The Dockers hope he can repeat the success of mature-agers Lyke Ryan and Bailey Banfield.

HARRISON WIGG (GOLD COAST ROOKIE)

Recruited from: Gold Coast (age 22)

Estimated 2019 SuperCoach starting price: $123,900

2018 SuperCoach average

We excluded players redrafted by their own clubs from this list, but Wigg is the exception (unlike most others he comes in at basement price). The former Crow had no luck with injuries in his first season as a sun, breaking his ankle at one of his first training sessions which eventually ruled him out for the season. One to watch if he gets through this pre-season unscathed. Averaged 25 disposals a game in the SANFL in 2017.

BUYER BEWARE

HUGH GODDARD (CARLTON ROOKIE)

Recruited from: St Kilda (age 22)

Estimated 2019 SuperCoach starting price: $123,900

2018 SuperCoach averageprimary comp: 61

Is Goddard the Cam O’Shea of 2019? Could get a game in the Blues backline but has never shown much SuperCoach potential with just two scores above 70 in his 10 AFL appearances over the past four years.

ROBBIE YOUNG (ST KILDA, PICK 67)

Recruited from: North Adelaide, SANFL

Estimated 2019 SuperCoach starting price: $117,300

2018 SuperCoach averageprimary comp: 71

According to the Saints website the 23-year-old can play as an inside midfielder or small forward but he spent most of the SANFL season as the latter, booting 19 goals and averaging just 11 disposals a game, with a 19-disposal, six-goal game against Norwood a clear highlight. He can tackle, laying seven or more four times.

Robbie Young knows where the goals are. Picture: Dylan Coker
Josh Smith has been given another chance at West Coast. Picture: Michael Klein

KIERAN STRACHAN (ADELAIDE ROOKIE)

Recruited from: Port Melbourne VFL (age 23)

Estimated 2019 SuperCoach starting price: $120,400

2018 SuperCoach average: 32

A former dual best-and-fairest winner at South Bendigo, the ruckman started 2018 on Essendon’s VFL list but shifted mid-season to Port Melbourne in search of opportunity — then broke his ankle. Seems a fair way down the pecking order behind Sam Jacobs.

JOSH SMITH (WEST COAST ROOKIE)

Recruited from: Collingwood (age 24)

Estimated 2019 SuperCoach starting price: $222,750

2018 SuperCoach average: 74

Delisted Pie gets another chance at the premier. Smith played 18 games in his first season at Collingwood but just one last year. Likely to cop an elevated price tag which rules him out of SuperCoach plans.

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34 thoughts on “2019 SuperCoach AFL – Rookie Bible”

  1. *BREAKING NEWS*
    Dangerfield gets DPP
    Some other changes listed below (sourced from SC Facebook page)

    2019 DPP PICKS

    DEFENDER-MIDFIELDER
    Andrew McGrath (Essendon)
    Lachie Weller (Gold Coast)
    Corey Ellis (Gold Coast)

    DEFENDER-FORWARD
    Darcy Moore (Collingwood)
    Jack Silvagni (Carlton)
    Ben Silvagni (Carlton)

    RUCK-FORWARD
    Justin Westhoff (Port Adelaide)
    Rory Lobb (Fremantle)
    Jordan Roughead (Collingwood)
    Jonathon Patton (GWS Giants)
    Jon Ceglar (Hawthorn)

    MIDFIELDER-FORWARD
    Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong)
    Tim Kelly (Geelong)
    Isaac Heeney (Sydney)
    Robbie Gray (Port Adelaide)
    Devon Smith (Essendon)
    Toby McLean (W.Bulldogs)
    Sam Menegola (Geelong)
    Michael Walters (Fremantle)
    Will Setterfield (Carlton)
    Jack Martin (Gold Coast)
    Chad Wingard (Hawthorn)
    Jack Newnes (St Kilda)
    Caleb Daniel (W.Bulldogs)

    KEY PLAYER WHO HAVE LOST DPP
    Paul Seedsman (Adelaide): Def-Mid to Mid only
    Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane): Mid-Fwd to Mid only
    Jordan De Goey (Collingwood): Mid-Fwd to Fwd only
    Aaron Francis (Essendon): Def-Fwd to Fwd only
    Pearce Hanley (Gold Coast): Def-Mid to Def only
    Tim Taranto (GWS Giants): Mid-Fwd to Mid only
    James Sicily (Hawthorn): Def-Fwd to Def only
    Angus Brayshaw (Melbourne): Def-Mid to Mid only
    Luke McDonald (Nth Melb): Def-Mid to Def only
    Travis Boak (Port Adel): Mid-Fwd to Fwd only
    Jack Higgins (Richmond): Mid-Fwd to Fwd only
    Josh Caddy (Richmond): Mid-Fwd to Fwd only
    Kane Lambert (Richmond) Mid-Fwd to Fwd only

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  2. This is an excellent guide, but I must say that the omission of Will Setterfield (Carlton, MID/FWD) is a bit of an oversight on Al Paton’s part. Barring injury, he’ll play round 1, and will play midfield.

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    1. yep. they also didn’t mention that J DUNKLEY has retained his DPP status. Win?!

      Apparently Aaron FRANCIS was a typo and will in fact be DEF only and NOT FWD as previously cited.

      WHITFIELD also DEF only has to be considered?!

      What status will E YEO get?! Again not mentioned, but am presuming MID only after last season?!

      Shaping up to be a humdinger of a year, where I think overall is going to be won in starting R1 and R2 selections and our starting MIDs …

      No one since Cox has truly managed to back it up properly. Preuss to MEL more of a concern for me than Roughead to COL. Think Roughy #2 has been picked up to swing key DEF (COL seriously impacted by injuries here last year) to key FWD.

      Could we see 100% ownership of DOCHERTY and DANGERFIELD at start?! There are probably six-seven MIDs we can see as being top 8 for the season, but again which 5 you start with and who you decide to WATCH will likely impact overall scores more than other lines.

      Whatever, can’t bloody wait 😉

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      1. | No one since Cox has truly managed to back it up properly.

        Which is why I won’t be starting Gawn or Grundy. I’m just going to go with the cheapest viable option and then look to get the best two in once we actually know who they are. I have no way of predicting that, and will more than likely get it wrong if I try, so I figure that if I’m more than likely going to need to use a couple of trades there anyway, I might as well save some money upfront. Plus, I’ll be getting more points per dollar to start with (and since total points = points per dollar x dollars spent, that’s a very good thing!).

        | Could we see 100% ownership of DOCHERTY and DANGERFIELD at start?!

        It should be pretty close to that.

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        1. Big call but totally get it.
          I will likely start GRUNDY, as frightening as it is to say it, I reckon he might even improve on 2018?! Can’t see him retaining his price with the 5-10% loading at season’s start, but the points are gold … and so are trades!!
          GAWN on the other hand is older, has had injuries in the past and given his impact up forward late last year, see PREUSS’s arrival as a greater threat. Perhaps he and Preuss will be sharing duties between RUC, pinch-hitting up FWD and filling the hole that Hogan leaves. Maybe Maxy’s set-shot for goal is that woeful that he is a safe bet, but I won’t be risking it with that many unknowns.
          Like you say, there are some pretty good, cheap options that will certainly cash-generate to pick up your R1/R2 (fallen) later, once they’ve clearly emerged from the pack.

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          1. Grundy is a must, he will continue his massive scoring dominance, Gawn is watched listed in hope Pruess doesn’t effect him

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            1. | Grundy is a must, he will continue his massive scoring

              Didn’t they say the same thing about Goldstein heading into 2016?

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              1. It’s a good point and while I’m gonna start Grundy, I do so with trepidation. The keys for me are that:
                i. he’s still only 24
                ii. He scores big SC pts as a rover, not just as a traditional RUC, and
                iii. he’ll be playing with arguably the best midfield in the comp (perhaps stronger than last year)

                Rules are there to be broken. I’ve done some year on year analysis, which I’ll share at a more appropriate time, but FWDs and DEFs don’t back it up either (in terms of top 6), especially FWDs, only 1.6 per year. Even if Grundy drops 10%, he’ll likely be a top 5 point scorer in 2019, across ALL positions. To me, unless he breaks his leg in Rd1, yes you’ll be forgoing a sh1tload of cash and therefore other premiums, but likely also a bucketload of points!
                Personally, I’m not willing to take the risk. But as I said at the outset, I do so with some trepidation.

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                1. But will more midfield punch due to lack of injuries and Beams return sap him of possessions.

                  Will the old Pendles/Beams 1/2 make Pendles relevant again?

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    2. Hey Salamander, for me there are a few others that he (Al Paton) has missed (picks 21+, who won’t be premium-priced rookies). Still doing some analysis, but just can’t wait. Have studied them ALL to some extent … saddo that I am

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  3. Shortly after the fixture came out, I went through it at made some notes on which teams might be the best from which to pick a floating doughnut (aka permanent loophole) player. I’ll probably write it up properly when the site gets back into full-swing in the new year, but here is what I have found so far.

    Having gone through each team’s schedule, I have narrowed the field to six teams. Note that we don’t know when anybody is playing in round 23 yet. The counts exclude the bye rounds, since we won’t have any shortage of loophole options then. Also note that in this context, ‘pre-bye’ and ‘post-bye’ refer to the *whole* bye period, not just that club’s bye round.

    Carlton: Thursday/Friday 1, Saturday 7 (6 afternoon, 1 twilight), Sunday 11 (7 pre-bye, 4 post-bye)

    Fremantle: Thursday/Friday 0, Saturday 10 (3 afternoon, 1 twilight, 6 night), Sunday 9 (6 pre-bye, 3 post-bye)

    Gold Coast: Thursday/Friday 0, Saturday 10 (4 afternoon, 3 twilight, 3 night), Sunday 9 (6 pre-bye, 3 post-bye)

    GWS: Thursday/Friday 2, Saturday 10 (5 afternoon, 2 twilight, 3 night), Sunday 7 (4 pre-bye, 3 post-bye)

    St. Kilda: Thursday/Friday 0, Saturday 10 (3 afternoon, 3 twilight, 4 night), Sunday 9 (5 pre-bye, 4 post-bye)

    Western Bulldogs: Thursday/Friday 1, Saturday 9 (2 afternoon, 1 twilight, 6 night), Sunday 9 (4 pre-bye, 5 post-bye)

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    1. Nice one. Did a similar analysis and it’s definitely a season of two halves. I hear the Doggies is the best for ENTIRE season, but think I will be starting with a FRE loophole. May require a change later. Will be looking for a MID this year rather than a RUC tho 😉

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      1. The only problem with the Bulldogs is that in the last four years they’ve used 38, 37, 39, and 40 players. Barring someone doing an ACL or similar, It might be difficult to find one that is 100 % guaranteed not to play.

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    2. Jack/Salamander,
      These comments of yours are very handy. Perhaps add some analytical summary in there and send it to me. I’ll post them up for you …. Thanks mate!

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      1. I was going to do that in the new year when the site is back in full-swing, but if you want to post them now I’m happy to bring it forward.

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  4. While we’re all doing fixture analyses, here’s another one I did for key forwards, entitled ‘When does he play Gold Coast?’.

    With Gold Coast in 2019 likely to be one of the worst sides in history (sorry, Lone Gold Coast Fan!), there will be some big goal tallies (and thus monster SC scores) on offer. With the MID/FWD stocks being as good as they are next year, this is not as relevant as it might have been in the last couple of years, but it could still be helpful for those of us who play Draft. And hey, I’ve already made the list, so I might as well post it.

    Note that clubs/players are in order of when they first play Gold Coast.

    St. Kilda (Bruce, McCartin): Round 1, Round 13
    Fremantle (Hogan, Lobb, McCarthy): Round 2
    Western Bulldogs (Schache, Boyd)
    Carlton (C. Curnow, McKay, McGovern): Round 4, Round 18
    Adelaide (Tex, Jenkins, Lynch, Fogarty): Round 5, Round 17
    Brisbane (Hipwood & friends): Round 6, Round 21
    West Coast (JJK, Darling): Round 7
    Melbourne (T. McDonald, Weideman): Round 8
    Port Adelaide (Westhoff, Dixon): Round 9
    Geelong (Hawkins, Ratugolea)
    GWS (Cameron, Patton): Round 11, Round 23
    North Melbourne (Brown): Round 12
    Sydney (Franklin): Round 15
    Richmond (Riewoldt, Lynch): Round 16
    Essendon (Daniher): Round 19
    Collingwood (Cox? Not really sure if they have a proper key forward): Round 20
    Hawthorn (Roughead, Gunston)

    Although I didn’t include them in my list, you could extend this to any small or medium forwards who are known for the odd big bag (e.g. Breust for Hawthorn, Ronke for Sydney, Stephenson for Collingwood, Betts for Adelaide, etc.)

    As I said at the start, this is probably only going to be useful for Draft now that we have all these midfielders we can pretend are forwards.

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  5. If your number 1 player picked in each position isn’t Doc, Titch, Grundy and Danger you might as well give up now.

    Gods but it’s great to be talking footy again.

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  6. Hey guys….so glad to see this and some familiar names. Great comments as usual. Having nearly made top 1k in 2018, I’m like a dry sponge in the quest for info heading into 2018. Finished with 2705 in R23 so feel like I’m on a roll heading into 2019.

    The rucks are the key as already has been identified. I’m finding it difficult to justify starting Gawn/Grundy at their prices. There appears to be lots of fallen prems across the board and I cant look past Ryder and Goldie, maybe even Sauce.

    Have already picked a team which includes 9 unknown rookies. Fallen prems and hopeful break outs are Doch /Williams/B Smith/Hanley in def, Libba/Hanneberry in mids, and Bennell/Daniher forward.

    That only leaves 13 prems, but they are all uber prems. Will change of course, but I’m just loving having some things to start getting my teeth into.

    Any chance of someone running a $100 league next season ?

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