(Written & Created By Ben)
DEFENDERS
Lock and Load:
After a break-out season cut short via a huge hit from Jeremy Cameron, Harris Andrews ($480,100) looks primed and ready to take on 2019. With an average of 97 before the aforementioned hit, including 6 tons, and a high ceiling with a top score of 152, Andrews looks like a no-brainer to be selected in your side.
However, was that form just a purple patch or a true breakout performance? I believe it was a true breakout as even after such a horrible injury, he finished off the year with three 90’s in a row.
There is also concern about him being a KPP, therefore having a rollercoaster of scores, however I believe this won’t be an issue. His lowest score after the breakout and before the injury was an 80, which is not too bad compared to other KPP’s like Lynch or JJK that more often that not throw you the odd 40.
Brisbane also recruited Marcus Adams in the offseason, meaning he’ll most likely play the lockdown role and leave Andrews to play a more loose, attacking role.
All in all, Andrews will be a fantastic option for your backline if you believe he had a breakout last year, instead of a purple patch.
Feeling Lucky:
A little bit of a burn-man for some last season, Alex Witherden ($455,000) is now entering his third season and is looking likely to be a breakout performer for 2019.
He showed his scoring potential last year by scoring 6 tons, however he was a rollercoaster of a player, as he also had 12 scores under 90. This was also the case in his first season, as through 9 games he had 3 tons and 5 under 90.
So it’s clear consistency is an issue for Witherden, however if you go back and look at someone like Jake Lloyd, he also had consistency issues throughout his first two “breakout” seasons (2017 and 2018), and it’s something he overcame in his third (15 under 90 first breakout season, 9 under 90 second breakout season, 5 under 90 third breakout season).
So although it’s not a given Witherden will follow this trend, it is a promising sign that he can shake his inconsistency and finally get to that 90-95 average.
MIDFIELDERS
Lock and Load: In my eyes probably the best acquisition of the trade period, Lachie Neale ($607,300) will have a new home up in Brisbane and will be out of the shadow of Fyfe, ready to lead from the front in his own midfield. With an average of 111.9 last year (good enough for 11th in the comp) Neale will look to push that average even higher in 2019 as he will be given more responsibility in the Brisbane midfield compared to Freo’s midfield, where as mentioned before he played second fiddle to Fyfe.
Neale played just as well, if not better, when Fyfe was out over the years, so there should be no concern over being able to shoulder the extra load at Brisbane. There have also been concerns about him copping a tag now he’s the no. 1 midfielder, however I believe teams will still tag Zorko first, as a tag hasn’t ever really slowed Lachie much, and it became evident last year that a tag pretty much takes Zorko out of the game.
All in all, Neale seems to be a safe choice to start in your midfield, and can only increase his average in 2019.
Feeling Lucky:
With one of the more promising young midfields in the comp, Brisbane have a ridiculous number of potential breakouts coming into 2019. I’ve highlighted a few I’ll be keeping an eye on in preseason, and I think you should too.
Hugh McCluggage ($416,800) is the most likely breakout candidate as he will be entering his third season and is shaping up to be the best player of Brisbane’s young core.
He has shown his capacity for scoring, with 2 130+ scores last year, and with a third preseason under his belt, a bigger tank could remove his lower scores and inconsistency this year. Could push his average to the 90-95 range this year, maybe even getting close to 100.
Jarrod Berry ($434,300) is another of Brisbane’s young core, and could also have a breakout season this year. He had a higher average than McCluggage last year, and scored more tons, but appears to have a lower ceiling, has his highest score last year was 118.
Again, with 3 preseasons under his belt, he could remove his inconsistent scores and push his average to 90-95. Another good choice for your team, however he broke my mate’s collarbone in an U/14’s grand final so I’m going nowhere near him out of spite.
Finally, he’s not really a breakout candidate, but Jarrod Lyons ($502,000) could be a sneaky POD for your team. He averaged 99.6 over 9 rounds before being surprisingly dropped by Gold Coast for a few games.
He has shown he has a big ceiling, with 6 tons last year, including a 152, so with a better team around him, I can see him averaging anywhere from 95-105 this year. One to watch during JLT.
Money Maker:
Ely Smith ($117,300) was a player who impressed during his draft year, averaging 26 touches and 5 tackles in his TAC Cup campaign.
The big bodied midfielder is one of those rare players whose body is developed enough at such a young age that he’s able to make an impact in the engine room on debut.
If he has a good enough pre-season, he’s a chance for a round 1 debut, so watch his progress in JLT.
RUCKS
Feeling Lucky:
An absolute stalwart of the club, Stefan Martin ($573,700) had a return to form last year with an average of 105.7, including 5 scores over 130. With some questions surrounding Grundy and especially Gawn, Stef seems like a good option to replace one of them and still carry out the set and forget strategy.
With a rapidly improving Brisbane side, I can see Stef either keeping his high average or even improving it next year. However, a few times last year Brisbane had McInerney pinch hitting, which impacted Stef’s scores, so watch closely in preseason to see if this is something Brisbane continue to do.
FORWARDS
Feeling Lucky: One of my favourite players when he was at Carlton, Mitch Robinson ($496,600) got back to his career best last year, with an average of 91.5 over 19 games. He also showed off his huge ceiling, with a whopping score of 172 against the Swans in Round 10.
With an improved supporting cast, I can see him either maintaining this average, or pushing it even higher to the 95 range.
There are a few concerns however, obviously the injury risk is there, with him only playing 19 games last season and 7 the year before, and with the young core looking to breakout this year, he may be pushed out of the midfield this year. One to watch.
So there we go, my review of Brisbane is done! Thanks for reading! If I missed anyone make sure to let me know Brisbane fans!
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Nice one Ben, as ever.
All are on my Watchlist until after the JLT with Neale the only one I may start.
Just have too many questions around structure/roles. With Gardiner out with an MTI (medium-term injury) will that force Andrews into more of a lockdown role? and how is Marcus Adams travelling?
With the 6-6-6 rule, I heard BRL were looking for some genuine pace off half-back and were looking at Cedric Cox to play that role with Mayes gone to PTA. I haven’t heard or read anything since. Does anyone know any more than that?
With Rayner having a better comparative first season (SC pts-wise) than all the young guns and with more mid-time mooted, might he not also be a breakout contender? I know it’s only his second season so less likely, but raises questions for me. Any which way, I see Taranto ahead of McCluggage for a breakout in 2019.
Stef has the same bye as Grundy and Gawn so don’t see any advantage in starting him, unless you are locking him in for the year then that is a sound strategy.
Like I say, will be watching them all through JLT but Neale the only one I’ll consider starting. Just too many questions surrounding the others when there are better set & forget options on those lines.
Thanks again Ben. Excellent write-up. Again!
(Brisbane supporter)
Marcus Adams should be a walk-up round one starter, especially with Gardiner having a dodgy pre-season. I don’t believe Harris has ever played as a floating defender, he is just one of those elite players who reads the play so well he gives off the illusion of playing loose. He is always on the opponents’ #1 forward, and he gets the bulk of his points from contested intercept marks, one-percentages and spoils to the advantage of teammates.
I can’t see Rayner being a reliable scorer for at least 2-3 seasons. He was never ridiculously prolific in juniors as far as pure numbers went, but the talent is what clearly is there. He will spend at least 60-70% this year as a half-forward, and will likely get some tagging jobs like Jarrod Berry did last year to fast-track his progress.
I think Zorko is being extremely under-represented. He has always been dominant whenever Brisbane can keep a game close and I see them winning more games this year than any in Zork’s career. He’s also only 14 months older than Patty Dangerfield, and after he figured out the tag last year he went 13 games without dropping below 90SC (six above 118)
Thanks Brett for the heads up. Does that mean Jarrod Berry will be freed up a little? And do you think that necessarily leads to more SC points?!?
You look at those players from last year who played a run-with role in the back half of last year and their scoring was compelling.
Am talking about Dunkley, Steele and Harmes in particular … all smashed 110+ on the way home and Berry did pretty good in that role too, albeit younger and less experienced than the others.
If Berry plays that role again with another full pre-season into him, might he just be the one to breakout ahead of say McCluggage?!
Yes if I had to pick a breakout this year it is Berry. From round 15 he averaged 93sc on only 20 touches in a negating role due to averaging close to five marks and five tackles a game. Very well rounded and he has an extremely high floor, 44% of his possessions are contested (Tom Mitchell’s is 45% for reference). Also kicked 12 goals in 21 games out of midfield for a five-win team (Cripps and Fyfe both kicked 11). If he can get up to even 22.5 touches per game I think he will be flirting with a 95-100 average and that is well in the scope of natural progression.
I’m also very high on McCluggage, but not ahead of Berry.
Brilliant. Thanks mate.
Have been hot on Witherden all pre season but the problem at Brisbane is they have two other brilliant ball users off half back. He might see a few point increase by the kick in rule but if Hodge & Rich are both in the side he might be playing 3rd fiddle off half back.
I don’t think this will be a problem. Rich and Hodgey were both there last year and Witherden still took the third most kickouts in the comp, with his % going up as the season progressed. The new rules favour his style too now that he can steal an extra 10-15m to make up for Rich having the bigger leg.
The one I’m keen to know about is zorko. Is he going to get back to premium status? after starting last year with some putrid scores he still went 120+ 5 times and ended with a 95 avg.
Very underpriced if he does return to 110 form
I sadly think it’s a similar case to someone like Rory Sloane or even JJ where once teams saw how effective a tag was, they’re not going to stop anytime soon. All of his big scores last year were when teams for whatever reason opted not to tag. So I think his average depends on the other teams strategies as opposed to Zorko himself.
If rich stays on the field he will. I’m starting him to out score everyone’s cheap 5th mid, miles, hall, hannebry etc. If he spuds it up, go up to Neale after full premo.
Check out his first 5 games last year if you can bring yourself to. Rich wasn’t playing. Rich came back and BOOM. Obviously he can’t handle a tag and will get them, but opponents usually tag rich. I so want to start Neale because of this too but due to byes zorkos value is too hard to pass up.
I’ll be starting Zorko. Neale will take the tag most weeks
Thanks Ben.
Another detailed and informative review.
I will be starting Neale and watching Witherden and Andrews closely over the JLT.
I do believe Brisbane will win a fair few more games this year. This usually means they will start to throw up a few more SC relevant players.
I really like Mc Cluggage as a breakout, if he was available as a M/F, I would be very close to taking the gamble.
As a mid only, I, (like a few others) have taken the cheaper and slightly safer option of starting Miles at M6.
Once again, thanks for a great Review.
Another great review. Neale is a top8 mid in my opinion, players more often than not improve their averages when changing clubs. Only question is start with or upgrade? Without stats to back me up I think he is a better 2nd half of the season type of player, which might suggest upgrade.
Witherden & Andrew are interesting. I feel there is 5 best defenders this year. Lloyd, Laird, Sicily, Simpson & Whitfield. Let’s call them the 100+ club.
After this there’s a ton of.players that will/can average 90-95. Witherden & Andrew are part of this group. Only problem is, I believe Williams is also part of this group and he is 100k cheaper.
Very well written article, great job.
Staying clear of Robinson. The 172 would have affected his average by as much as 6 points (if my quick calculation is correct), so probably better options for an average of 86.
Andrews being trialled in the forward line, he may be a swing man this year. Jarrod Berry has a mild case of glandular fever.