2019 Team Preview – Collingwood

Written by Schwarzwalder on January 22 2019

(Written & Created By I’ve Just Crashed KB)                                                                

2018 was so close for the Pies and they have loaded up for the now with the acquisition of Beams from the Lions to try a sneak a flag. The Pies played a very Supercoach friendly game in terms of team scores in 2018, with a number of relevant players across a number of positions. For 2019 there are again a number of players that will be in contention for people’s teams, however it is likely a number of these players will come under consideration during the season rather than in their starting squads as the inevitable search for value and the next big thing continues and we determine who will be taking the greater share of the Pies midfield points.

Backs

Lock N Load?

Jack Crisp ($519,900) (DEF)

The steak knives in the Beams to Brisbane deal has become a consistent AFL player, initially as a defensively minded midfielder before shifting down back. His average over the last 5 years reads 86, 89, 86, 83 before stepping up to a 96 average last season. His 22 games included 10 over 100 and 5 under 80, with a ceiling of 128 and a low of 64. It’s hard to envision a major change in his role next year so you can safely lock in a player who will be around the mark of a top 10 defender, although there will likely be options out there with higher ceilings or who represent better value. But for those looking at aggregate scoring it is worth noting Jack has not missed a game in the last 4 seasons!

Feeling Lucky

Jeremy Howe ($497,200) (DEF)

Jeremy has turned into a relatively consistent defender from an average perspective, averaging 92, 94 and 92 over the past 3 seasons. Although Jeremy missed 5 games last year, in the 4 seasons before that he missed 4 in total, so is a relatively resilient performer unless you consider his recent niggles a sign of things to come at 28, whilst he is also be nursed back in his return from his shoulder injury early in the preseason. Jeremy’s 2018 average is impacted by his season ending injury effected 17 in round 19, whilst he also managed to throw in scores of 48 and 59 during the season, meaning if you like him, it’s probably best to go via the upgrade route. Ownership can be a frustration at times, although he is certainly one of the better players to watch if he’s getting his hands on it!

Money Maker

Isaac Quaynor ($153,300) (DEF)

Very highly rated small/medium defender with pace, who concentrates on beating his opponent before trying to break the game open. Appears at this early stage to be some chance to debut early on in 2019 and offer something slightly different to the rest of the Pies defensive setup. Definitely one for the watch list despite the slightly inflated price given his position in Defence after impressing the Pies in the pre-Christmas sessions and time trials. Averaged 17 disposals a game in the National Championships.

Midfielders

Lock N Load?

Adam Treloar ($594,200) (MID)

Treloar is a bit of a Supercoach tease. He has averaged 108, 107, 111, 101 and 110 over the last 5 years and will be 26 at the start of next season and theoretically in his prime. Those scores are very good, but (excluding 2017) these scores are probably just a tad below the base acceptable levels we are after from a starting premium mid. Treloar is unlikely to be a particularly popular pick in 2019 especially after missing the back half of the home and away season last year but he may benefit slightly from the new starting positional rules as his ability to burst away from a stoppage should be increased multiple times each quarter. For those brave enough to roll the dice in 2019 he will certainly offer frustration at times through some poor disposals (particularly by foot), and ability to go missing for periods of a game, but he definitely has the ability to go big, however there are more obvious and reliable options out there.

Feeling Lucky

Dayne Beams ($557,600) (MID)

Beams promises to be a big inclusion for the Pies, adding to their midfield depth to make it one of the strongest in the competition, if it wasn’t already. Beams is an interesting one, he has had on uber premium year of a 123 average back in 2012, but since then has had two seasons in the mid 110’s (113 and 116), three in the low 100’s (101, 102, 103) and an injured impacted 80 from two games. In his whole career he has never managed a full compliment of games, and has missed chunks in quite a number of years. 2017 and 2018 saw some improvement playing 19 and 21 games for an average of just 101 and 103 but this is hardly premium output for a midfielder. Added to this, Beams will likely spend more time out of the midfield due to the high level of mid rotation required at the Pies, meaning he will likely have rests up forward. Given you know he will miss some games and have some injured effected scores, if you like him I’d suggest waiting until he returns from an injury impacted score a few games later and ride him home as he is capable of some very large scores when properly up and running (4 x 140’s in 2018, averaging 117 in his last 10 games in 2018).

Money Maker

Rupert Wills ($166,100) (MID)

A contested midfielder who has had his share of injuries and struggled for opportunities when fit. Likely has been overtaken by Sier in the pecking order however he showed his ability over his 5 games late in 2016, averaging 83 (with a minimum of 16 disposals in each game). Played one game in 2017 for 15 disposals and 51 SC points, and has laid 48 tackles over his 6 games. Managed 12 games in the VFL last year and is regularly in the best players. With the increased midfield depth at the Pies is probably one to avoid even if selected early in the season as job security levels will not be strong.

Rucks

Lock N Load

Brodie Grundy ($708,200) (RUC)

Grundy was the number 1 ruck last year for a reason. High possession count, high contested possession levels and his high on-ball minutes combined to make Grundy a key for those who had successful Supercoach seasons. There is no real reason not to pick Grundy in 2019, Roughhead may take a few minutes a game from his ruck role however he should be more of a ruck insurance policy/key back for the Pies while Cox’s role should not change significantly. The new ruck rules should probably benefit Grundy as he loves taking the ball out of the ruck, while the starting positions may also give his scores a slight boost from his contested work with fewer numbers around the ball. So that just leave the Cox Curse which is now very well documented, surely 2019 is the year the curse is broken?

Money Maker

Max Lynch ($123,900) (RUC)

Impressive time trialler for a big man, however the inclusion of Roughhead during the offseason will have pushed Lynch further down the pecking order with the big man likely to be given further time to develop in the VFL. Too expensive for a loophole and there are teams out there with better loophole fixtures.

Forwards

Lock N Load?

Jordan De Goey ($476,400) (FWD)

Jordan improved significantly in 2018, lifting his average from 79 to 88 over 17 games. Jordan is an absolute beast who looks like his might have the competition at his mercy if he puts his mind to it and stays out of trouble, regularly kicking key goals and brushing opponents aside. He has proven his worth as a deep forward but to become truly Supercoach relevant that 88 needs to become a 95 which can likely only be achieved via a shift to the midfield. The acquisition of Beams may stymie this somewhat, although Buckley may decide to shift one of his mids to half-back (Pendlebury?) which could mean things are status quo in terms of opportunity. Watch closely over the preseason and word coming out of the club for indications of increased mid time, if Jordan stays as a forward only then he is definitely not a starter after throwing up scores such as a 47, 63, 65 and 51 and a host of other scores you’d prefer not to take in 2018. Even with increased mid time the more sensible option would be to wait as inevitably at some point Jordan will play deep forward and pop in a poor score, which would then open up the upgrade opportunity.

Feeling Lucky

Darcy Moore ($239,400) (DEF/FWD)

Injured riddled key position player who is yet to find his best position or average over 62 for a season. Scored a 91 and 83 last year in two of the games he definitely was not injured, but threw in a 33, a 34, a 12, and a 22 in some of the others before missing games on end. He played 21 games in 2017 for two scores over 100, but a series of league defining scores such as 15, 23, 36, 35 and 29. Are his 2016 or 2015 stats any better you ask, the short answer is no. Yes, he has potential and could be a future gun, but to pick Darcy in your Supercoach team for 2019 regardless of his price is an extremely brave move.

Money Maker

Atu Bosenavulagi ($117,300) (FWD/MID)

A quick pressure small forward is something the Pies have been crying out for up until 2018, when the small forward line changed things from a “bomb it in to the tall blokes” game plan to a more structured F50 entry system, with Cox the obvious get out option. Will likely require some conditioning and development before being given an opportunity (although Joffa may give Bucks some friendly advice) and unlikely to be an overly Supercoach friendly scorer after averaging a touch under 15 disposals and a goal a game in the TAC Cup in 2018 (did average 4.5 tackles however) with the likelihood he will be positioned largely deep in attack.

Others

Premiums

Scott Pendlebury ($562,000) (MID)

Due to his consistency over the years, Pendlebury has been nicknamed Dependlebury from a Supercoach perspective, knocking out a 104 average last year, which was his lowest since 2008! Pendles will be 32 next year and a swing to longer stints at half-back surely awaits. He will again be a good draft pick, but his averages are trending down, going from 127 124 116 119 106 then 104. Typically plays almost all games, even injured which tends to lower his averages in recent times, but might achieve relevance again in 2020 if he does find himself as a suitable % backman now Beams is on board and the game catches up to him.

 

Steele Sidebottom ($551 700, MID)

Sidebottom is unlikely to find himself in many starting teams in 2019, but has shown himself to be a durable performer having not missed a game in the last two seasons. A 113 average in 2014 is his career high, and since then he has knocked out a 104, 106, 96! and 102. These scores aren’t the type we are looking for from our premium mids, and with him scoring under 100 in 10 games last season, he is not providing the consistency either. This is largely due to his style of game, either seagulling out on a wing or providing assistance out of defence with players with high workrates not always rewarded from a supercoach perspective. One for your draft side.

Taylor Adams ($523 100, MID)

Taylor found himself super fantasy relevant a few years back as he gained DEF status, averaged 108 and played every game rewarding those who backed him in. He returned to type average wise last year, going back to a 96 average which was in line with his 2015 and 2016 seasons. He had a reputation as being injury prone which he now appears to have shaken, but his ability to produce fantasy relevant output now his is a pure MID is severely doubtful. Adams suffers from some shocking clangers at times, but can be relied upon to get the hardball and you could do worse from a draft perspective, but he is likely facing a slight reduction in midfield time in 2019.

Mid Pricers

 

Jamie Elliot ($280 300 FWD)

Another injury riddled Magpie and another Pie who has quite the highlight reel! Jamie missed the entirety of the 2016 and 2018 seasons, while he played 17 games in 2017 at an average of 74 with only one score over 100. His career best season average is 83. At 26 and having never played a full season of footy and without a particularly consistent scoring record, Elliott should be passed upon given whispers of further injury setbacks during the preseason.

Rookies

Tyler Brown ($123,900) (DEF)

Played 18 games in the VFL last season, only made the best players twice. Further development needed. Pass

Will Kelly ($117,300) (DEF)

Key position back making his way back from injury. Given his delayed start to preseason it would be hard to imagine Will knocking out one of the established players at the start of the year but was the highest rated specialist key defender in last year’s draft and does fill a specific hole in the Magpies list.

Mark Keane ($102,400) (DEF) / Anton Tohill ($102,400) (DEF/FWD)

Both of the Irish acquisitions during the offseason are highly rated by the club, however it would be hard to imagine either lining up for the Pies in round 1 given the strength of the line-up. Given their respective price tags they would make tasty downgrade targets if either of them develops quickly and post half-decent scores post debut.

OTHERS

Philips ($489,100) (MID) is a long-shot potential break out candidate after lifting his average from 76 to 90 last year, playing every game. An extremely hard worker and runner the risk is too high given his MID only status, although as a permanent wingman he may slightly benefit from the starting positional changes. I would not expect his position to be under threat from the Pies other midfield changes. Certainly worthy of a late pick in draft at 22 but his scores varied too much week-to-week in 2018 to seriously consider.

Scharenberg ($437,200) (DEF) is coming back from a knee so won’t be in contention for round 1.

Wells ($302,900) (FWD) did average 101 in 2016 from 18 games but other than 2016 he has only played 23 games over the last 5 years at a season average best of 75 in 2014. He will be 34 by the time the season rolls around. A smooth mover and fine player when fit but he hasn’t been fit very often in recent times. It would be a huge gamble to put him in your side.

Murphy ($167,200) (DEF) showed nothing of Supercoach relevance in his two 2018 games which were largely achieved due to the Pies shocking injury run during the year. A firm no.

 

** Very comprehensive indeed……..Thanks KB!! – Schwarzwalder **

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26 thoughts on “2019 Team Preview – Collingwood”

  1. Brilliant write-up KB, but now I’ve got to get a wriggle in for work 😉
    Also heard that Beams (FWD) and Dependlebury (DEF) will afford the DeGoey and Sier types more MID-time in their crucial development. There are too many to mention, but they’re all on a watchlist bar Reg, who obviously starts for me.
    Thanks again KB. Both thorough and excellent!

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  2. Great write up KB, seems to me from those figures that Darcy Moore is just too big a risk and a trade waiting to happen. I was bullish on De Goey last year , should step it up another notch this year but dang that midfield is a bottomless pit for depth, who knows what gonna happen there, they can’t all average tons. Wonder which team has recorded/average the most SC tons in the past.Anyone?

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    1. Geelong back in the day had a few. ABC combination (Ablett, Bartel, Corey) would smash them out and you also had Kelly, Chapman & Stevie J

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    2. Since 2010, including finals with a minimum of 5 games, a maximum of 5 players have averaged over 100 for a team in the season. This has occurred 8 times:
      Geelong (2018) – Danger, Ablett, Selwood, Duncan and Hawkins
      Carlton (2016) – Docherty, Cripps, Simpson, Curnow and Murphey
      GWS (2015) – Shaw, Treloar, Ward, Mumford and Shiel
      Sydney (2014) – JPK, Parker, Jack, Malceski and Franklin
      Richmond (2012) – Deledio, Cotchin, Tuck, Maric and Foley
      West Coast (2012) – NicNat, Cox, Priddis, Shuey and S.Selwood
      Fremantle (2011) – Sandilands, Fyfe, Mundy, Pavlich and Griffin
      St Kilda (2010) – Goddard, Montagna, Hayes, Riewoldt and Dal Santo

      4 players from a team have averaged over 100 on 23 occasions over the same time.

      On average, we should only expect 3.4 teams a season have 4 or 5 players averaging over 100.

      Collingwood may well be one of those teams, but history would suggest that at least one of Grundy, Adams, Pendles, Beams, Treloar and Sidebottom will miss, let alone adding De Goey but as a FWD, he doesn’t need to average that much.

      Since the inception of SuperCoach, the most ever 100+ averages for a season is 6 which has occurred 3 times. Geelong (2007/2009) and Brisbane (2007).

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      1. Thank god I’m not a Pies fan, I’d be loading up!
        Incredible stats. Very impressed you can pull that out of the drawer.

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      2. On another point, I’m only up to Rd13 last year, but the only sides to have lost games (some not close) and yet have managed to out-score their opponents at the SuperCoach table multiple times (ie more than once) are COL and WBD. Will put something together on this soon enough, but I think it’s interesting. If StK didn’t lose by 9-10 goals, they’d also be on the list. The three of them and to a lesser extent GWS, appear to play v SC-friendly games.

        My plan is to run the win-loss %ages against the SC-scoring %ages. Set the result of the actual game as baseline, to gain a +/- vs index of SC scoring potential.

        I don’t think they’ll be any surprises, but it may provide reassurance.

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        1. Do you have any stats on the average supercoach score of the winning team vs the losing team? Would very interesting seeing the percentage increase between the two to see if there’s any extra value in selecting players like Merrett & M. Crouch as you’d expect Essendon & Adelaide improve on their 2018 campaigns.

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  3. Fantastic job KB.
    I will be starting 2 Pies, both locks – Grundy and Crisp.
    I like the look of Brayden Sier as a breakout – but being a MID only and his price @ $435k (79pts) is very awkward especially with Miles thereabouts.

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    1. Hey Lazza,
      I thought I had covered just about everyone! but Sier can play. Whether he can step it up to the required SC mid level of output I doubt at this point in his career but I do like the look of him. Grundy and Crisp would be my two picks from the Pies, not sure if I will start with Crisp but will likely look to bring him in at some point.

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  4. Great insight KB. Way too much uncertainty of role/point sharing among Collingwood mids to start any in your team I reckon. Will be watching very closely around the byes of who looks primed for a big back end to the year.

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    1. Totally agree. Too many great mids sharing the points which is why no ubers. Treloar was the highest priced at season end last year at $540k, with Grundy rucking. No starting pies for me.

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  5. Jordan Roughead just stood on Brodie Grundy’s toe in training. Grundy is expected to miss two weeks of the preseason… Does this affect our coaches selection of him???

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  6. Thanks KB, great write up.

    Adams scored 124, 90, 130 and 132 during the finals. Pretty SC relevant I think. He had a slow start to the season, not sure why.
    Moore is risky, bu5 his scores as a key defender are much more consistent than as a key forward. If his body holds together he should average in the high 80’s. Maybe worth a risky punt for the first half of the season and then upgrade.
    Grundy is a lock.
    With the new rules, outside runners like Sidney and Philips could do really well but have to wait and see.

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  7. Just looking at rookies (and Quaynor specifically) which raises a question. How long is Murray suspended for? I just wonder if Quaynor does start, that Murray’s return may threaten his JS?! Particularly important when starting with a high-priced rookie as it will take him a little longer to truly fatten up!

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    1. Not sure exactly. He will likely be suspended for a year or more likely two, it occurred during round 19 last season and we should know more well before then.

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    1. 52, 39, 80 and 53. That was as a key back. He is training as a forward this summer. At $257,400 you should be able to grab a rookie who will average higher than his season best since 2008 of 68.5, and your worst rookie should hopefully make more cash than him. He is a pure role player so although he should get a game each week I would definitely explore some other options first.

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  8. Regarding Crisp…

    I’ve posted this elsewhere, but I’ll re-post in case anybody missed it.

    ——————————————————-

    I love Crisp as a SuperCoach player, but do yourself a favour and look at him as a cheap upgrade target rather than a starter.

    Why? He’s long been a slow starter, and a strong finisher:

    2015 average rounds 1-8: 86; round 9 onwards: 91 (a small jump, but a jump nonetheless)
    2016 average rounds 1-7: 74; round 8 onwards: 92 (jump of 18 points, or 24 %)
    2017 average rounds 1-8: 70; round 9 onwards: 90 (20 points, or 29 %)
    2018 average average rounds 1-7: 86; round 8 onwards: 100 (14 points, or 16 %)

    P.S. Sometimes a chart is worth a thousand words: https://i.imgur.com/RdQL8jn.png

    P.P.S. The chart may be ever so slightly off because it pretends for the sake of convenience that Collingwood has had the same bye every year during those four years, but it’s still a good reflection of how Crisp’s scoring tends to change throughout the year.

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    1. Brilliant write up Salamander, was looking at starting him but will now re-evaluate, get him in after his bye maybe?
      The little bits of info that is provided by all the readers on this site is really amazing, the willingness of people to help others in the tricky world of SC is second to none, thanks again mate.

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