(Written & Created By Matteo)
Before I start my 2019 Preview, I’d like to share a link to my 2018 Preview to see how I pictured things to go last year.
2018 REVIEWED: were Redden (95 avg inc 10 tons & 2x 150+), Ryan (13 games), Venables (12 games) & Waterman (16 games). Few negatives were Brander (1 game), Watson (0 games) and I missed Cole & Rioli, even though I rated Rioli highly.
While we are looking into 2018 let’s have a quick look into the top performing SC players at the reigning Premiers:
1: Andrew Gaff, 19 games, 108.21
2: Elliot Yeo, 25, 107.12
3: Jack Redden, 98.36
4: Nic Naitanui, 15, 96.6
5: Shannon Hurn, 25, 95.6
6 Luke Shuey, 20, 94.5
7: Jeremy McGovern, 24, 88.96
8: Jack Darling, 21, 88
9: Jamie Cripps, 25, 82.32
10: Dom Sheed, 18, 80
*inc Finals
……………………
Potential Round 1 Team:
B: Hurn – Barrass – Sheppard
HB: Duggan – McGovern – Cole
C: Masten – Redden – Gaff*/Sheed
HF: Cripps– Darling – Waterman
F: Rioli – Kennedy – O Allen
R: Vardy – Shuey – Yeo
Int: – Hutchings – Venables – Jetta – Hickey
*Gaff suspended until R3.
On the fringes: Ainsworth, Brander, Pettruccelle, Schofield.
The West Coast Eagles 2019 Preview: The Reigning Premiers Edition
Fresh from arguably West Coasts greatest ever Premiership triumph, most players were reportedly back on the training track early. Luke Shuey was a surprise from day 1, with the 1st to 4th year players. From all reports the reigning Premiers are just as hungry as last year.
Using Brad Sheppard, Nic Naitanui & Andrew Gaff as extra motivation to push themselves to reach the same heights they did last year. There’s also the fact that no Eagles team has ever gone back to back, something the players have spoken about and want to achieve. Shepperd just did an interview stating 15/16 players ran personal bests in the prechristmas time trials and for the first time in a decade, Chris Masten didn’t win the trial. He lost to new Eagle and former Collingwood player Josh Smith, who is working as hard as anyone for a shot to break into the team.
Defence:
Pass:
At over $520k you are paying nearly top dollar for Hurn, at his age (31) and coming of his best seasons to date, better value will be found, Hurn has never averaged over 100 for a season, and only averaged over 90 on 3 occasions.
McGovern has established himself as one of if not the best defender in the league. However his best (132) and worst (61) are so far apart, it’s just not worth starting with him, at $480k. I feel as though you could pick him up at closer to $420k sometime in the year.
Watchlist: Highly rated teenager Oscar Allen has an eye on a spot for Round 1. Drafted as a forward, debuted as a defender and touted as the next Fyfe, this kid has talent. My prediction is he takes LeCras spot in the forward line. At $236k he is top dollar for a rookie without a guarantee of getting a game. However if named for R1, my tip is pick him. You won’t be disappointed.
Midfield:
POD:
One of the must have defenders of 2018, Elliot Yeo had his best season to date. However having lost his DPP status why should we pick him as a pure mid? Here’s why: his last 3 season averages read 75, 102 & 107, is this the year he goes 110+? At just 25 he is about to hit his prime and last season he had more midfield minutes than ever before. And if we take out his R3 score of 27, not injured just a really really bad game his average jumps to 111 plus in 15 out of 22 games he to topped 100, a further 4 he topped 90. Plus he can also go large! 7 scores over 120, including 142, 144 & 150.
PASS:
Jack Redden started his season very slowly, but then fired up and had his best season as an Eagle averaged 95 in the Home and Away season, however he averaged 106 from R6 onwards. He had 4 scores over 130 last season (134, 154, 154 & 137.) Watch his pre-season, if you think he can keep improving he could be a great POD. However I feel the difference between his best and worst is too far apart to be considered for a midfield spot.
PASS:
Dom Sheed at $394K seems like a bargain after his final performances. But 15 games in the home and away season for the home and away season for a average of 72, and just the one score over 100 was a poor return for those those who started with him last year. However scores of 130, 105 & 116 in the finals proved he can play. I’d definitely pass on Sheed though. While he has got the talent, at nearly $400K he just isn’t guaranteed game time once Gaff returns in R3.
ROOKIES:
Nothing to see here. Matt Allen has improved but won’t play, Luke Foley our 2nd pick will struggle to break into the team early on.
RUCKS:
Nic Naitanui will miss most of the season as he recovers from his knee injury and Scott Lycett has left the Premiers via FA to join Port Adelaide meaning a fight is on for #1 Ruck.
New recruit Tom Hickey ($485K) was the early front-runner to start at R1 but Nathan Vardy (R/F $306K) has put his hand up to take it. Reported to have bulked up in a bid to stop being out muscled around the stoppages. Of the 2 Vardy is on my watchlist for R2 with the idea to swing him forward. However BUYER BEWARE he played 20 games in 2017, but has never played more than 9 since 2011.
FORWARDS:
WATCHLIST:
2018 was Jack Darlings ($471K) best season to date. By R10 he was almost a must have, averaging 111 over the first 9 rounds including a monster 181. However injuries ruined his season. Peaking at $583k he is undervalued. Definitely watch his preseason.
PASS:
Josh Kennedy ($397K) has had post season surgery and is already running and doing ball drills. However at his age and his injury history definitely forget about him in your Supercoach team.
POD:
At $318K Willie Rioli is a high risk. But one that is worth considering. Returned from Christmas 6kg lighter and in terrific shape. Trained along side cousin Daniel (Richmond) back home with daily runs around the many Waterholes at the Tiwi Islands. Has publicly stated he wants more midfield minutes plus the biggest tick for me was the final stages of the 2018 Grand Final. Dom Sheed had just kicked the winner and Coach Simpson elected to start Rioli in the center square. What a vote of confidence. Averaged 58 in 21 games but more midfield minutes could see that average shoot up. WATCH THIS SPACE.
ROOKIES:
After so many bargains in 2018 I’d pass on all our youngsters this season.
EXTRA INFORMATION:
LeCras’ retirement opens up one spot into the team, we also have Liam Ryan extremely unfit, running last in the time trial post Christmas. So that’s potentially 2 spots opening up. Most Eagle supporters believe it to be a fight between Waterman and O Allen, however dont be surprised to see speedster Jack Petruccelle ($123k) to squeeze into the forward line/Wing. However after scores of 12, 33 & 18 he actually lost money on his starting price of $117k last season.
PASS:
Before I finish my preview I’m sure most will notice one name was absent from my list. Before I review him I want to make it clear, only pick him if your going for a LEAGUE win, not overall, or if you believe you have a high enough scoring rookie to cover your 1st two round scores and use him as a loophole bench option. We call this the Motts Manoeuvre. A sneaky little tactic to pick a premium player that will miss a game/s early meaning he will be a POD for your team.
SNEAKY POD:
Andrew Gaff ($587k) had his best season to date, averaging 108 over 21 games. Why pick him. In the past 7 years he has missed 1 game through injury playing 22 games in 5/7, 21 games in another and 19 last season due to suspension. Durability. TICK. His last 4 season averages are 103, 90, 93 &108. TICK. 14 tons in 21 games plus his best and worst aren’t too far apart. TICK. 26 years old, about to enter his peak. TICK. And finally, the most important, he’s hungry for a Premiership. TICK. Pick Gaff if you need a little something extra in your team.
Best of luck to all in 2019.
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Great write-up thanks.
Yeo may start for me depending on decent rookie availability and I like his bye in the MIDs. I think he’ll average 110+ quite comfortably and is therefore underpriced.
Rioli has been up there on my watchlist for some time, but I don’t like his bye in my FWD line sadly. Am hoping he doesn’t go boom from the start.
Is Foley definitely a non-starter? I guess even if he does, the imminent return of Gaff may threaten any JS for fringe players. Gaff himself could be a decent early upgrade target as his late start gives us time to watch and act.
Thanks again. Excellent detail.
Really like the Yeo pick. A very nice POD. I’ll most likely start Gaffand dont want both. I like Foley but just can’t see a spot for him R1. Has barely been sighted at training. Over been trying to find out if he’s injured but its extremely hard getting info from WC.
OMG CAN EVERYONE STOP TALKING ABOUT YEO
he’s my POD, get your own
Harry Himmelberg is mine. Ssshhh! 🙂
and now that you have posted this, he is no longer a POD!! Hahaha … howdy Chillo!
Haha after picking danger first, yeo was 2nd in my side.
Great write up Matteo, Vardy is on my watchlist, seem to really stand up in the finals and now looks to be gunning as top dog, did I read somewhere about Keegan Brooksby being picked up, is he in the mix?
Vardy is a great price. His injury history is the only reason I haven’t locked him in. Only reason I’d consider him is up forward as cover for the rucks. Brooksby is a strange pick for us, we now have about 6/7 players that can play ruck. If your looking for a cheap ruck for R3 William’s may get a debut this year. Can play Ruck, Forward and as a defender.
Liam Ryan a bit stiff?
Not at all. Won us a flag. Picking him up was a win all round for us. However a few off field issues mixed with fitness issues means he most likely won’t start R1
So you are saying his fitness is behind where he was this time last year? Off field dramas are nothing new for Ryan, even though most appear to be more of a media beat up it seems to me…
I’d love Ryan to line up R1. Has a ton of potential and would excel in with Lecca gone. However I haven’t heard 1 positive thing this off season about him.
Just a few quotes from AFL.com.au regarding our forward line early on.
“Jamie Cripps won’t play the JLT series, he’ll be pushing (it) for round one,” Simpson said.
“Young (Jack) Petruccelle has been having a bit of a breakout pre-season, so we’re hoping he keeps developing.
“(Jake) Waterman is the same, he just looks like a stronger, bigger, fitter player already.
Great write-up.
I’ve been somewhat tempted to put Shuey on my team ever since his Norm Smith medal winning performance that got us a flag, thought he would’ve been a touch more under-priced though.
I’ve never been a fan of Shuey in SC. I rate him as elite but his game doesn’t translate into Elite SC scores.
Thanks Matteo.
Very interesting read.
I have had my eye in Yeo for a while. Remember when Macrea went from M/F to Mid only and everyone ignored him. He then went on to produce his best season yet. I’m thinking Yeo could do the same. I currently have M Crouch at M4 but if I can find the extra $35k after rookie selection I will turn him into Yeo. I’m not sure they will score too much differently, I just feel Yeo is way more durable.
Thanks again for a great review.
He he. Sorry folks.
I have had my eye “ON” Yeo.
Thanks mate. I’m very tempted to go Yeo over Gaff. Just feel Gaff will have a massive season.
Liking the new avatar Matteo 😉
Thanks Allsaints. Was time for an upgrade.
Yeah I’m hearing you.
I personally feel having almost $600k of your budget on the pine for the first few weeks. Will almost certainly halt any slim chance you might have of winning overall.
How would you feel if you ended up second and missed out on $50K by the difference of having a rookie score over Gaffs.
If you want Gaff. I would look at starting Fyfe. He usually finds himself injured pre byes. Should be an easy straight swap for Gaff. 😉
That is a very good point. I do have the benefit of seeing a couple rookie scores before the eagles play. However I’m very tempted to switch Gaff to Yeo. Thanks for your feedback.
The concern for me here with Yeo is how much preseason has he done?
The toe injury means likely a low level of running and still not in full training with the main group I believe.
I would love some data to work out how much pre-season with the main group one needs to have a good season and is Yeo’s 8ish weeks (approx) enough?
Clayton Oliver probably in the same sort of boat however shoulders mean he might be in a slightly better position than Yeo.
Great write-up Matteo! I’m strongly leaning towards Yeo at the moment, I’ll just copy and paste what I wrote from the rate my team thread detailing why I’m picking him at this stage.
As for Yeo, he’ll be a super POD (sorry Chillo!) Who I believe will be close to a top 10 mid this year. As pointed out in the Eagles review by Matteo, without that horrific game where he scored 27, his average would have been 111, good enough for 12th overall and 9th among mids. I believe Yeo can carry on the tradition of premiums who prove they can hang with the big boys in the middle once losing DPP status, along with Merrett, Taylor Adams, Macrae, etc. etc.
Thanks for your feedback Ben, and the mention in RMT. The more I see Yeo mentioned, the more I think I have to pick him.
Well done Matteo – great to see you back again!!
Thanks for the great article.
I’m wondering about Gaff’s state of mind.
He looked completely shattered after the “incident”.
Is that a factor, do you think?
I read that he and the Brayshaw’s had got together, flowers for mum, game of golf etc. That’s all to the good, but Gaff seems like the sensitive type, is his mind back in the game?
Missing a Grand Final win has to be hard to take.
I feel watching his team mates celebrate last year, would have provided plenty of motivation to get his head” back in the game” for this year.
I can see him being cherry ripe and ready to go when he gets his chance. As discussed the 6/6/6 rule should advantage elite endurance outside runners.
Andrew Gaff is certainly one of those.
I think he could end up averaging 110+ easily.
Took Gaff a while to get his mind right. I hear all is good now and he’s ready to go. Very hungry for a flag.
Great work Matteo.
No Coasters for me. Great team but not convinced by any individuals. Gaff is consistent but lacks a ceiling and Yeo… is Yeo.
Thanks Thommo. Gaff for me keeps improving and you can bank 100 every day of the week.
Another brilliant post thanks.
Am I crazy to be considering starting Vardy and Darling?
Also, I think Gaff will go to another level in 2019 he’s a top bloke and is embarrassed and ashamed of what he did to Brayshaw so I think his commitment to make up for that in the eyes of all football fans will drive him even more than than the prospect of winning a flag
Working on my team on a Friday afternoon and Gaff struck me as a perfect candidate for the Motts Maneuver. Check on here and of course SCT was already all over it, bringing us the most minuet elements and nuances of SC. Love it Matteo. Think Gaff will be a great POD this season with a huge point to prove and a huge thirst to have a cracking year. If he was available R1 i’d very likely snap him up so i’ll likely to try and set up a possible Motts Maneuver.
Surely a better sideway option for an early premium injury (it will happen)?
Covering Rd1 can be easy if a decent rookie scores well enough but chances of 2 weeks in a row given Gaff is out til Rd3 and getting it right is pretty low and you would have been better of just grabbing a 110 average player from Rd1 for total points.
Motts did it with the 2ng highest averaging forward for the year who was nicely price, but lots of options in the midfield for $600k this year.
I thought Gaff only had one more week to go? 2 is it? That changes things.
If you’re playing purely for leagues RB, I’d say go for it. Otherwise, start YEO!! 😉