2019 Team Reveal – Thommo

Written by Thommo on March 13 2019

THE PHILOSOPHY

Every season I have a theory behind my selections. Last season it was to select durable players, or those with too much upside to ignore, and save trades to win my Supercoach Leagues.

It was boring but eventually rewarding. However I did cop some pain  because I didn’t have players with high ceilings. When Lloyd, Macrae and Kelly scored 180+ points, I missed out and hated it.

So this season I am starting with players with high ceilings. When they go large, I want to be a part of the fun!

Behold!


Hutta was here making the picture larger so everyone can see!

D-FENCE

Premiums: Most teams are looking to cheap-out a little bit in defence in 2019 and, while I agree with that philosophy to some extent, I am playing it safe with Laird and Lloyd manning D1 and D2. I wanted to start Whitfield as well but I was becoming too heavy in the R14 bye.

Mid-pricers: I rate Zac Williams a high chance to break-out and if he doesn’t I will share the pain with most coaches anyway. Brodie Smith is a bit riskier but he will increase in price enough that he won’t be a complete loss even if he under-performs. I like Roberton but we’ll have to wait and see if he’s healthy with such a serious health scare. If required, hopefully a decent rookie option appears to replace him.

Rookies: It appears there will be fewer defensive rookies than first expected so I am only looking to start Sam Collins on field for now.

MIDFIELD

Premiums: I am not going to lie to you; I find high scoring midfield premiums very attractive. Some people believe Macrae’s 2018 was a once off, but I just want those sweet, sweet 150 point scores. The same goes for Patrick Cripps who looks like a high school kid playing Auskick.

Until recently I had Oliver and Neale in M3 and M4 but it is appearing increasingly likely that we will need extra cash in the forward line. So I downgraded them to Matt Crouch and an extra midfield rookie. It’s not ideal but it seems we are more likely to find rookies in the midfield than anywhere else in 2019.

If you need me to explain the Jack Steele decision to you, you haven’t been reading my articles so you are probably not reading this one either.

Mid-pricers: Do we start Tom Liberatore or not? I am still torn and may drop him for a rookie before Round 1.

Rookies: I am buying the hype for now; Walsh starts. I am also bullish that there will be a few second or third year rookies averaging 70ppg (with Constable heading that list) so I may bring another rookie on-field for Libba.

RUCK ME

After his toe mishap, Grundy may start with a 90 point game or two but he will then score like a beast. So he starts. With Preuss out, Gawn also has to start. I expect Gawn to be the number 1 ruckman early in 2019.

FORWARDS

Premiums: Only injury will move Dangerfield or Heeney from my team. From F3 things get interesting…

Mid-pricers: F3 is my revolving door position. Dunkley, Hogan, Darling, Mundy and Menegola have all featured here but I hate every one of those selections. Currently Billings is freeloading there but who knows how long he will stay there?

Rookies: F3 – F6 could be the positions that separate the top 1000 teams from the rest. Setterfield will hopefully remain fit and play enough matches to fill F4 but which players will fill the final two positions on field? Right now Drew and Petrucelli seem likely to play but may not score much while Hanrahan may not even play in Round 1. Let’s hope some mature age rookies put their hand up for a Round 1 berth come team selections!

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43 thoughts on “2019 Team Reveal – Thommo”

  1. Nice team, Thommo. Accounts for the lack of decent rookies really well. Noticing a lot of people are grabbing POD or under the radar F3s. I’ve got Darling as my F3 currently, thoughts?

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      1. Yeah. That’s my rationale as well, bAps. Note that when Darling put together that string of big scores Kennedy was also playing, so we don’t have to worry about that.

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  2. What’s everyone’s thoughts on Billings? I started him last year (big big mistake there), but I’m tempted by him yet again this year. He played on a wing for most of the JLT games, which is where he belongs, and where he scores well. I think I read somewhere that Parker joining their forward line is what allows Billings to play higher up the field. So as long as Parker keeps his pressure role, Billings should be a decent pick?
    But then again, if he doesn’t score the 95-100+ to become a top 6-10 forward, its pretty much a wasted spot.

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    1. don’t. go. there.
      IF Hanners and Steven do make it back (I know it’s a huge IF), you can expect his time up the ground to diminish. Too big a risk for me.

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        1. Good point. I reckon Newnes will get pushed out there when they return, Dunstan may be dropped (stiff as he had a half decent JLT) and thought Phillips impressed in his cameo against the Dogs. There’ll be looking to get more games into him in 2019, especially if our season’s over early!
          It’s just risky that’s all. Think Darling is a much better/safer pick.

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    2. He scores well when the Saints win. I dont expect the Saints to be winning that much personally so I dont think he’ll be a top fwd this year. If you think the Saints are going to improve though, i can see the justification.

      Just keep this in mind as they have a very easy early season fixture from memory.

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    3. I have done an article on Billings. With him playing a more defensive wing position, I see a return to low 90s.

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  3. I should say that I will downgrade Roberton and Laird to Ridley and possibly Darcy Moore if there is a rookie shortage. Libba will become Oliver and a forward rookie will become Elliot or another $200-$250k forward.

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  4. I like it Tommo.

    I’m running a very similar structure with The big two rucks and Libba possibly at M5.

    I’ve got Whitfield, Oliver, and Mundy rather than
    your Laird, Macrea,and Billings.

    I also dumped Roberton when he had his latest heart scare.
    Now I have Collins and Clark at F5/6. ( Bench.Burgess, Duursma)

    This also frees up cash to put Moore at F4.
    Moore at $$239k only really needs to average 75 to make $100K+, and help pay for an upgrade. Can’t see any other Forward rookies capable of this, other than Setters. Drew might for the first few weeks,( but maybe not when Wines etc return)

    The Moore / Burgess swing option could be a life saver with the lack of D/F rookie JS.

    I still have $98k at this stage. I’m feeling this may come in handy with inevitable scramble to get the best playing rookies come R1.

    I also plan to hold a bit more cash in the bank this year.
    It seems that rookie corrections and the ability to jump on the best midpriced bolters’ could be the make or break this year.

    Any thoughts on whether the defensive Premos may actually drop a little in average this year with the 6/6/6 rule.
    It looks like all defenders are going to have to actually defend 1 on 1 a lot more, without the ability to put extra numbers behind the ball.
    Many of the best scoring defenders seem to play as an extra in defence. Will they still get a chance to do this as often?

    The kick out rule might even things out to some degree with certain guys. I still feel many of the Intercept defenders may not get as many chances without the extra numbers in defence.

    Be interested how others view this.

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    1. I reckon we are over-stating the affects of rule changes. I have read comments about Laird and Lloyd having to be accountable or the kick-in going over their heads. These are gun players and ball magnets – a rule change won’t make them forget how to play football.

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      1. But competition for the football in the form of Brodie Smith will have an impact.

        No Brodie Smith I pick Laird and rely on picking up Lloyd after a slump.

        With Brodie Smith, I take Lloyd.

        It’s always about risk/reward and the likelihood of either outcome. There are always enough premos that you cannot start all of them, so you take a risk averse approach to premos to compensate for the high risk strategy on rookies/midpricers

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    2. From what I’ve seen so far, 6-6-6 hasn’t stopped teams from playing extra numbers behind the ball. Obviously they can’t do it at centre bounces anymore, but after that, it goes back to normal.

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      1. Maybe I’m just over thinking things.

        Thinking of over thinking things..

        I may go JOM over Steele 😉

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      2. Treloar said the accumulators accumulate more easily now, rekons titch will push the 700 barrier in one game.

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      3. Hasn’t had much effect on defenders but if you analyse the JLT stats its caused a 10-15% reduction in ruck scores, thus making them more realistic as far as game influence is concerned. The top rucks will still be the top rucks but they wont score as much as last year

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        1. That 10-15% reduction was on last years JLT ruck scores, if you compare to last years season scores the reduction is about 28%.
          This is when comparing comparable CD statistics

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        2. Hey BobDown
          This concerns me. Any chance you can expand, significantly and with stats, on these points?!
          I am sure EVERYONE at SCT would be keen to hear/learn more about this.
          Many thanks in advance.

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    3. Sounding quite a bit similar to the post Roberton and Rookie Drought moves I pulled.

      Rookies are looking very ordinary this year, so I have a string of 240-180k players that I’d never normally show much interest in.

      Despite the form of a few young players I cannot see more than Butters getting to Round 4 at PA. There is still just too much depth there to load up on Port rookies.

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  5. Oh hai Thommo

    It’s good to be back!

    If memory serves me correct, didn’t you personally visit Billings at the end of last season and pay him out? And now you’ve seemingly gone and give him another contract….how?? Have you forgotten or are you willing to put your season on the line before it has even begun based on your theory?

    I’m not a fan of the Roberton and Steele picks (maybe it’s a St Kilda thing and yes also first day back at training so haven’t read any other articles) but other than that pretty solid team IMO.

    Good luck!

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    1. Billings is too scared to screw up now!!! He knos that I know where he lives.

      To be serious, F3 will change once or twice in the next week.

      Regarding Steele, his style of play is made for Supercoach but there is risk when selecting breakout contenders.

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  6. Your a Hawks man and you’ve selected Hanrahan but not Scrimshaw hmmmmm. Is there something we don’t know? Nice team!

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