2020 Team Preview – Melbourne

Written by Chillo on February 3 2020

2018 was, by and large, a fantastic year for the Melbourne footy club. Their first trip to the finals in 12 years was highlighted by back-to-back wins over Geelong and Hawthorn, sending them to Perth for a prelim final. Unfortunately it all came crashing down for the Dees, trailing by ten goals at halftime – a debacle which they arguably are still yet to recover from. Not much went right in 2019, with high profile defenders Lever, May and Kolodjashnij all spending extended periods in the recovery ward and a number of previously reliable players way down on form for much of the season.
From a Supercoach perspective though there was obvious gold to be had here in the form of Max Gawn, the third highest overall scorer of the year, and Clayton Oliver, who topped the 2400 point mark for the third year running. Those two stars will form the nucleus of many Supercoach squads this year but there’s also some value picks to be had here. All you need is a bit of vision (and maybe a little luck!).

Defenders 

Feeling Lucky: With a laser-accurate left boot and sound decision-making, Christian Salem ($491,200) has become Melbourne’s primary rebounder off the halfback line. Salem is still trying to find consistency in his game – three scores of 130+ were offset by nine scores below 80 last year – but the steady improvement in his scoring throughout his career is extremely promising. Huge POD value here if you’re brave enough!
By contrast, Michael Hibberd ($349,300) has probably moved beyond the point in his career where he is Supercoach relevant. But I have to emphasise the word “probably”. Stuck in a key defensive post last year, Hibberd’s scoring was essentially putrid, hence his irritating mid-range price tag to start 2020. But with the expected returns of Jake Lever and Steven May from long term injuries, Pig should be freed up a lot to play his natural running game. Will his scoring improve enough to make him a viable target? Questions!

Money Maker: Trent Rivers ($117,300) was, in my humble opinion, a massive draft slider when the Dees took him at pick 32. Rivers has an AFL-ready physique and maturity that belies his 18 years of age. He’s capable of playing as an inside or outside midfielder, and has also spent time in defence for East Freo. It’s difficult to see him breaking into the starting 22 for round 1, but if the Demons don’t show immediate improvement from last year’s form, expect Rivers to find himself in the frame for a debut.

Midfielders

Lock and Load: It’s hard to believe that Clayton Oliver ($593,900) is only in his fifth season of senior footy. After a solid rookie season, Oliver exploded in 2017 to defy the second-year blues with a sparkling season average of 111, bettering that in his third year with a 115 mark. He only averaged 109 last year, after having surgery on both shoulders prior to the season proper. To get a beast like this for south of $600K is possibly the bargain of the pre-season. Don’t waste this opportunity. 

Feeling Lucky: Melbourne’s woes in 2019 were partly blamed on a dearth of speed in attack, a facet that off-season recruit Ed Langdon ($466,300) is sure to help correct. The younger Langdon had a so-so year right up until the final month, where he banged out four centuries on the trot and probably added a few extra bucks to his upcoming new contract. He will be inconsistent as wingmen not named Gaff tend to be, but he’s definitely a target for draft players and worth considering if the new-look Dees can catch fire early in the year.
A strong finish to 2018 and a even stronger 2019 pre-season saw Angus Brayshaw ($452,400) as one of the favoured candidates for a breakout last year. Sad to say Gus was a bust, only reaching triple figures in five games and spending a lot of time shivering out on a wing. Hopefully Goody has realised during the summer that his team plays better when Brayshaw is getting his mitts on the pill. The acquisitions of Langdon and Adam Tomlinson will logically push Angus into the contest a bit more often too. Definitely a smokey if you’re looking for a budget midfielder with upside to start the 2020 season.

Money Maker: There’s a long bow to be drawn here, because more than enough has already been said about Kade Kolodjashnij ($207,700) and his constant battles with debilitating concussion. No-one who has seen Kade at his best can doubt the talent of the halfback, taken at pick 5 in the 2013 draft. But only 21 games in the past three seasons is clearly a red flag, and the main reason for KK’s ultra-budget price tag. It would be great to see Kolodjashnij get back on the field and score us some Supercoach points – but it would be even better to see him get back on the field and play consistently. Here’s hoping that all those worries are behind him now.

Rucks 

Lock and Load: Here’s Chillo putting on his absurd looking Super Critical Hat: Max Gawn ($697,100) missed a game last year after rolling an ankle. He also torn his hamstring three years ago and missed half the season. Brayden Preuss surely has to get game time at some stage. The Dees just took Luke Jackson at pick 3. Ummm Cox curse, something about ruckmen declining after their 28th birthday, possible resting throughout the year…

Seriously though, SuperMax has averaged 128 throughout the past two seasons and missed that one solitary game. He scored 18 tons in 2019, including 212 in the SC grand final. He’s a captaincy option every single week. Stop kidding yourself and get him in there (EDIT **pending fitness!**).

Feeling Lucky: This is more of a public service announcement than an actual suggestion. If the unthinkable happens and for some reason Gawn becomes ‘gone’, then jump on Braydon Preuss ($329,500) lickety split. He averaged 67 last year, I hear you say, that’s midpricer madness! And you’d be right – but look closer and see that in the one game where big Preussy was the lone ruck, he duly saluted with 140 points against the Blues. If Brayden gets a run at the starting ruck role (and let us all hope he doesn’t, but it happens), he’s a ready-made stepping stone to an uber-premium.

Money Maker: Great kid with almost limitless potential. Apparently runs like a midfielder, and is equally adept in the forward line or thrown into the ruck. But Luke Jackson ($198,300) is a “break-glass” rookie – he won’t play a game this year unless something goes seriously wrong for the Dees. Pick him up at R3 next year with a $75K discount, now you’re talking!

Forwards

Money Maker: As you might expect for the team that had the second-worst attack in the league last year, there is very little to enthuse about when it comes to the Demons’ forward line. Tom McDonald ($387,000) is worth a thought if he can get his body right and the Dees midfield can increase their supply to him. But club recruiters have attempted to address the forward line woes by springing one of the major surprises of the draft, taking livewire small Kysaiah Kropinyeri-Pickett ($157,800) at pick 13. The nephew of former premiership player and Norm Smith medallist Byron Pickett, “Kossie” is still raw but has all the tools to be a dynamic addition to the Melbourne side in the forward pocket.

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25 thoughts on “2020 Team Preview – Melbourne”

  1. 100% agree on Rivers, physically ready, has been a leader through all youth levels, uses the ball extremely well & can play multiple roles BIG watch in the pre-season as there could be a HB spot for him.

    Oliver has De Boar & Hutchings in the first 2 rounds otherwise I’d be very keen.

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    1. Rivers is looking good for mine. Had glandular fever in the preseason for his under 18 year, so still played well of limited preseason.

      Hoping for big things

      Demon’s coach last year gave new players two games to prove themselves. Don’t think he ever did the one and done.

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    2. The problem with Oliver having De Boar and Hutchings first up is even if he has bad games he will only have those games in his price cycle for a max of two weeks. If he bottoms out at Rd 4 it’s unlikely the cows have fattened enough to bring in a $550k mid into your team. I’d be much more concerned if he had the taggers in rds 3 & 4.
      Chances are if you don’t start him you’ll be chasing for the rest of the season to get him in.

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      1. Especially when you consider his record against his opponents in rounds 3-5…

        Freo – avg 127
        Saints – avg 105
        Suns – avg 132

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  2. Great Write Up Chillo!

    I think another factor that needs to be taken into account when considering starting Oliver is whether Gawn gets up over his knee injury to the start the season.

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    1. I sometimes wonder if we overthink these things TDA. I reckon having a full preseason automatically means Oliver will match last year’s output at worst, Gawn or no Gawn. He can shark hits from opponent rucks and the Dees may play two rucks early if Gawn is struggling.

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  3. Great write-up Chillo. Am hoping Rivers is a starter in Rd1. My love for Oliver is unwavering. First picked for me in the MIDs, with or without Gawn.
    Picked Salem in my DeadTeam last year and he went huge early. Definitely one to watch in 2020. TMac is interesting. Has he had a full pre-season and over his niggles?! Anyone know!
    Finally Gus’s elbow, unfortunately for him, affords us the opportunity to watch & act.

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  4. The other thing to consider with Dees players is that after an abysmal 2019, I have them ranked with the easiest fixture of ALL sides. It does make a difference from an SC perspective if they show improvement. But, they’re the one team I have no idea on how they’ll go in 2020. What do people think/expect?

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    1. One factor from last year was they didn’t adjust to the 6/6/6 rules well.

      In 2018 they were starting 2 guys behind the ball and running them into the square and the crash and bash guys in the guts would hand ball it out to them.

      In terms of winning football games the new 6/6/6 rules seemed to favor guys that can run and carrier the ball a bit, even 3-5 metres and draw a man, rather than just get under the pack and get it out. People start with a direct opponent so you need to draw another player’s man to create a spare at the centre bounces.

      For mine, they need to play Petracca in the centre square a bit more to just draw tacklers.

      Their backline should be better and win a few more games. maybe finish 12th

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    2. Think they are a pretty poor lot and based on Supercoach average player ratings for best 22 and 30 players they are 14th and 15th respectively back at the tail with GCS, Freo and Adelaide. Cannot see them making finals this year again.

      Apart from Gawn and Oliver I doubt that there is any other regular that is worth investing in.

      On a side note Richmond are 11th and 12th but they are one well drilled unit.

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      1. Agree completely and reckon 2018 was the aberration, not 2019. Gawn and Oliver aside, who are the other stars in the side ?

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  5. I have to admit seeing Oliver in only 14% on teams makes me very happy. One of the first picked and at under 600k should provide decent value!

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  6. Latest on Max GAWN from Josh Mahoney, GM of Footy Ops at the Dees:

    “He’ll be back running around on Monday (today) and possibly ready to play a game in three to four weeks’ time.”

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    1. … and on Angus BRAYSHAW

      “he’ll be out of main training for 3-4weeks, [but] he’ll be around the mark for the 2nd practice match.”

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        1. Goldy’s run home last year and durability is having me considering…
          Have Whitfield, Kelly and fyfe. Need someone with no injury concerns.

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  7. As a dees man myself I’ve always loved Joel Smith, 23 y/o talented 3rd tall option up fwd and in def (only DEF in SC). Had him locked in my side until JLT 2019 where they decided to field him in JLT2 with a groin niggle which resulted in him missing the entire 2019. Would have supported TMAC well.

    Presents this season at 209k(DEF). Fully fit has athleticism and class to support a Melbourne team needing it missing Frost (and still) Hogan. Haven’t read his name anywhere. Worth a look over pre-season to see if he finally gets his role + can score.

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