Rd14 BYE
I might start where I went much earlier this pre-season and that’s with the appointment of Rhyce Shaw as the Kangaroos head coach back in Rd 11, 2019. The Kangaroos went 7-5 with an 112.85%age after he took the reins and could be a finals contender in 2020 if that form continues. NTH also improved their SC scoring average by 30pts/game over the same period but, as with any new head coach appointment, there are always winners and losers.
Defenders
Feeling Lucky:
There are conflicting reports across social media that Paul Ahern, DEF/MID ($337,900) is liked/disliked by the new coach. He’s definitely one to watch in the Marsh Series, since he averaged 93.3 after a purported role change to more of a supporting role behind play (think Caleb Daniel) rather than just his outside/wing role of earlier in the season. He is priced at just a 62.2 average (which includes an injury-effected 22 and a 10% discount) in 2020. If he looks to be part of Shaw’s plans in pre-season, has retained that SC-friendly role and his scoring looks good, I wouldn’t dismiss him. The other to consider is Majak Daw ($339,600) who sadly missed all of 2019 and although he’ll be coming off a compromised pre-season, could be considered with a strong Marsh Series showing; watch for his role. He ave’d 78.2 in 2018 and receives a 20% discount in 2020.
Money Maker:
It’s hard to see any DEF rookies starting in 2020 for NTH.
Midfielders
Feeling Lucky
Ben Cunnington ($544,100) started 2019 like a house on fire, but finished it like a handball happy spud, averaging just 82.8 in his last 5 games, including a 46 in Rd23 under the close attention of Jack Viney. It’d take a brave man to start the 28-yr-old in 2020. We won’t mention the other $500k+ MID, but we will talk about the concussion-man Ben Jacobs ($348,500). The tag machine is back in training and although NTH are rightly proceeding with significant caution, he may be ready for Rd1 to terrorise us SC coaches whenever he faces one of our top premo MIDs. Ben ave’d 90.7 in his last 7 games (incl. an injury-effected 67) before head issues finally forced him out. That’s a significant discount for a player who could average 90+ if he’s fit and ready to go. NTH will take no risks with him, so if he’s up and about in the pre-season (while there is always risk), he might just be worth a punt. Finally, could Dom Tyson ($287,600) be back on the scene in 2020 after yet another injury-riddled year? He’s never really lived up to the hype since being drafted alongside Josh Kelly at the Giants. Regardless, at his price if he is fit & firing he can’t be ignored as a potential big money-maker (averaging 90+ on two occasions in non-interrupted seasons). Would love to know from any NTH fans where he is at right now in the Kangaroos plans? Last I heard he is training well, but on a wing rather than inside?
Money Maker
Again, I don’t see any money-makers in NTH’s midfield this year, unless the unlucky Kyron Hayden ($134,700) finally makes his debut in 2020 after an injury-effected non-career to date.
Rucks
Feeling Lucky
With Gawn’s fitness for Rd1 now in question, is the #3 RUC from 2019 now in your plans? Todd Goldstein ($609,400) turned back the clock last season, for his second-best return in six years and coming home on a wet sail, averaging 128.1 after his bye. He has returned slim and ‘feeling better than ever’. He said the same last year! While he is turning 32 during the 2020 campaign, he has to be considered the best pts-for-pts replacement should SuperMax not make it.
Forwards
Feeling Lucky
While we don’t seem to have come across many SC-relevant ‘Roos to this point in the Preview, I reckon there are potentially quite a few to consider here. Jack Ziebell ($493,400) ave’d 97.7 post-Shaw appointment, simply because he got a heap more midfield minutes. Will that continue into 2020? With emerging rookie Thomas, young gun Simpkin and new recruit Bonar all having the ability to go FWD and kick goals, I’m inclined to think Ziebell’s mid- minutes won’t diminish much, if at all, in 2020. If it looks like it in pre-season, I’ll be tempted. I also think we need to consider all three of the others and more in this Preview.
Aiden Bonar, MID/FWD ($202,800) left a stacked GWS for the opportunity to gain more MID-time. By the sounds of things, he has impressed already in his short time at Arden St, with both Ziebell and Cunnington heaping praise on him, suggesting a midfield role is there for the big-bodied Bonar. He did have two knee recos back in 2017 and is prone to soft tissues (hammies) so approach with caution, but he is now back home and living with bestie LDU; he’s a happy camper. Do not dismiss.
Talking of who, the awkwardly priced former #4 draft pick Luke Davies-Uniacke, MID/FWD ($342,100) is looking much bigger in 2020 and another pre-season might just be what LDU needs to take it to the next level. We saw patches of his ability in 2019 when he registered his first ton, but he would need to take a huge step in 2020 for the pick to pay off. No more than a watch for me.
NTH’s older high draft pick, now approaching his fourth year at AFL level is Jy Simpkin, MID/FWD ($383,000). Yes, he is at a horrible price, but does score well (five 100+s) when given increased minutes up the ground. Surely these numbers will rise in 2020 with his excellent skills, but his floor is just too low when he plays predominantly forward, that he’s another who sits on the watchlist until significantly more MID minutes come his way, and on a more consistent basis.
Finally in this bracket, last year’s #8 draft pick Tarryn Thomas, MID/FWD ($339,900) is turning heads at pre-season training. Averaging 62.6 over 20 games in his first year of AFL (including two 100+s) are very positive stats for the supremely talented Tasmanian. With more MID minutes mooted in 2020, he and Bonar are the ones highest on my radar.
Money Maker
We may finally have a rookie to consider in NTH’s FWD line. Jack Mahony ($117,300) has been impressing at half-forward in match sim and apparently last year’s mid-season draftee Lachie Hosie ($123,900) may not be far behind.
After thoughts
A bit like St Kilda, North are a very good SC-scoring side but they also share the points pretty evenly across the 22 … after Goldy. They have been impressive under Shaw to date and we might expect to see more of that in 2020.
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Nice write up Allsaints, but uh where the hell is Higgins???? It’s not a North article without the Prince!
I cut the section out to keep him a POD.
Maybe 😛
Missy HIGGINS ave’d 103.3, over the last six games of 2019. The 31-yr-old only missed 5 games too. Lock in the burnman at your peril. But he is underpriced for those who have a proclivity for risk!
I think Ziebell is too valuable to not play in the guts, especially when he is the captain.
I forgot Ziebell existed, he might be a decent scoring forward POD. Thanks AllSaints!
He’s currently my F2 but will need further evidence to cement his spot.
Oh, and Jack STEELE is my M6 😉
I discovered kryptonite in the off-season, the Man of Steele is gone!
Kryon Hayden has my eye, scored 31 pts in a qtr and then did his achilles, hopefully a starter for rnd 1.Looks as though he knows how to get the pill.
Thanks All Saints
Thought about Ziebell but think there are more reliable options
Thanks for all your write ups’ AS
I’m a Roo supporter so bias announced, Ziebell is one of those players who you love in your team – committed, hard at it, team player etc.
As for supercoach – as a forward, more than capable of avg 95 a year and would love to think Rhys will play him more mid this year – could be the Boak of 2020? Did he avg low 100s a couple of years back?
Thanks for all your write ups
You’ve over inflated our skipper’s SC scoring abilities.
2009 – 60.4
2010 – 62.2
2011 – 79
2012 – 80.8
2013 – 95.2
2014 – 83.6
2015 – 86.3
2016 – 94.4
2017 – 89.7
2018 – 84.4
2019 – 90.8
As the traditional writer of the North preseason report i thought i’d chuck in my 2c. A wise sole wrote on here about mid-pricers and i took a few things out if that are very pertinent when considering North players. Mid-pricers are very unlikely to become keepers so we really need them to earn 100K at the bare minimum, 150K really. As allsaints said above, there’s alot of shared points at North leading to so many awkwardly priced players. I just can’t see any of North’s 300K-400K types taking THAT big a step. I expect improvement but not enough to be SC relevant.
Dom Tyson’s an interesting proposition as a fully fit Tyson COULD earn the price rise to make him relevant but it seems a high risk strategy.
Goldy’s Goldy and he’s a good shot at coming up behind Grundy and Gawn as the 3rd best ruck in the game. Does Gawn’s knee issues raise Goldy’s relevance?
Bonar’s the one for me though. He’s come with big wraps on him from GWS. Please note that big wraps from GWS hasn’t been hugely successful thus far at North with Ahern and Tyson not really tearing it up yet. That aside, he’s in my current team but it really depends what other rookies bob up at other clubs for R1.
Thanks RB. Always great to read your views. I currently have Ziebell and Bonar in my side. Bonar will likely stay there unless I read or see things contrary to what I’ve heard to date.
My question is whether you think Ziebell will retain his mid-minutes under Shaw? It appears so. Thanks again.
His scoring is way to inconsistent to get me excited. Under Rhyce he’s scored 7 tons out of 12 games which is fantastic. Lock him in you say. Well he’s also had 5 scores of 80 or less in those 12 games. That’s too big a range. He might win you a H2H but he could equally lose you a H2H. He’ll likely finish a top 10 forward BUT it’d be a hell of a rollercoaster ride.
Thanks Roo Bloke.
What are your thoughts on Jacobs coming back? If he does the hard tag on a mid it should/would affect the time of other mids?
Jacob’s is a massive mystery. IF he’s fit and firing he’s a gun tagger and you’d think with Shaw’s emphasis on contested, hard nosed footy in the second half of 2019 that he’d be in the midfield lined up on a gun Saint mid (Hanners?) R1 of 2020. But we’re talking SC not footy so we need to look at the maths and i simply can’t see him scoring highly enough across the first 8 weeks of footy after such a long break to get the necessary price rises to gain you 100-150K. It’s simply too risky for not enough likely reward.
From a numbers side of it Dom Tyson’s super under priced at $287K. Look up his scoring average and IF he gets on the park for a 8 week run at it he’s likely to get up 400+K and be an astute starter for your team.
It seems there’s a lot of IF types at North. IF we get Jacobs back. IF Ahern, Bonar and LDU live up to their draft potential. IF Garner can become a premium. IF Thomas can move through the midfield more. IF Tyson can get a decent crack at it. Do i mention the ultimate North IF man – Luke McDonald?
Ahern I’ve always though given the opportunity always had a great SC game, I think there was a bit of a knock on his 2 way running so maybe a permanent HB role would be better for him long term but his ball winning ability and tackling takes a knock. Big watch still in PS because i’d rather take a flyer on him than Roberton.
Only Bonar for me at this stage