2021 Defender Projections Group 2

Hi Everybody!

Here is the second set of defenders. Planning to move onto Forwards next, but if there are any defenders you would like projects for that I have not done, please let me know in the comments.

Nick Haynes

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2012	8	37.1	19
2013	11	64.5	20
2014	8	71.4	21
2015	17	68.5	22
2016	16	84	23	80
2017	16	75.8	24	81
2018	22	75.2	25	82
2019	19	87.4	26	85
2020	17	98.4	27	95
		95-103		95

Figuring out what is going on at GWS is a real pain and to some degree turns me off their players. Lots of not knowing roles and too many players for each position leads to giving up and beer. Haynes seems to be on an upwards path, but he is 28 now.  He will be heavily affected by circumstances I feel, based on his past and being a GWS player. I can imagine him doing some better and I can see him regressing and doing worse. Oh, and of cours the whole 2020 thing where his better score could be an artifact of the short quarters. I just can’t see myself taking a flyer on him with other options available, but anyone with more info on his role and situation might think otherwise. He certainly is not bad or obviously at his peak. 

Callum Mills

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2016	20	77.2	18	76
2017	22	73.3	19	77
2018	9	79	20	78
2019	22	81.8	21	80
2020	15	101.4	22	95
		96-105		100

A 23 year old with that history of improvement sure implies more improvement. If only Horse wasn’t managing him. You know, the guy who didn’t play Tom Mitchell?  If he does become a full time mid then I’d want him. Odds are good he will overperfrom his price. If he stays a defender or part time mid, well, I might still want him, since he looks so good on paper and he still could go up. But, Horse is Horse, of course of course……

 

Adam Saad

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2015	16	78	20	73
2016	10	70.1	21	74
2017	22	72.7	22	75
2018	22	75.1	23	77
2019	21	81.7	24	80
2020	17	97.9	25	95
		93-102		97

Last year he had just the sort of jump in average I’d love to see ahead of time. I’d happily take a 98 average at the cost of an 82 average.  I feel like he hit a real level last season, and he will likely stay somewhere around it. Being on a new team increases the range of that somewhere around, but who knows in what direction. 

Jeremy Howe

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2011	13	63.6	20
2012	22	79.1	21
2013	21	72.5	22
2014	22	85.4	23
2015	22	74.8	24
2016	20	92	25	92
2017	21	94.1	26	92
2018	17	91.6	27	91
2019	19	79.5	28	90
2020	4	120.5	29	90
		88-98		90

I feel like a 4 game hot streak at age 29 just can’t be counted on to be maintained as a new level of productivity. He is playing Frogger now and I’m thinking the safest way to predict his next season is using his entire past history and not worry about those 4 games. That would put him right back at about 90. I do feel he might be on the upper side of that 90, but starting with him is rolling the dice.  

 

Alex Witherden

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2017	9	87.1	18	79
2018	21	83.8	19	79
2019	21	72.3	20	79
2020	6	94.3	21	90
		85-100		90

Nice average for those 6 matches, but just 6 matches. He is priced at an 85 average, and if he is healthy and has a job, I feel he will do at least that well and might do a lot better. He is just 22 and 57 games mean he still has potential upside. Wasn’t on my watch list before this, but he is now. 

 

Brayden Maynard

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2015	9	56.8	18
2016	20	69	19
2017	22	71.8	20	70
2018	18	74.9	21	75
2019	22	79.9	22	80
2020	17	102.4	23	97
		97-105		100

Broke out at 23, what a surprise! (Not really a surprise.)  Like most players who have had just one good year, I feel like really all we can say he will probably do about as well. He scored fine with Howe playing so hopefully that won’t affect his average. Likely to get about what you are paying for. 

Lachie Whitfield

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2013	19	73	18
2014	11	79.4	19
2015	21	77.9	20
2016	19	81.2	21
2017	15	97.6	22	100
2018	22	99.9	23	105
2019	16	111.2	24	106
2020	17	104.5	25	106
		102-110		106

I talked about my predictions for him in the last season review, but to sum up, he was top priced so best case was he kept up his average, and people overvalue players who were the highest scorer on their line, and that Clayton Oliver or Dangerfield were both better buys. Sure enough his average dropped off by 7 and Dangerfield and Oliver were both much better buys. This season he has a medical issue, so right away dodgy. On the other hand, I doubt hsi average will drop much and could go back up to 110ish, meaning he has a nice upside. If he wasn’t hurt I’d be tempted by that. 

Luke McDonald

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2014	20	66	19
2015	13	52.8	20
2016	14	64	21
2017	22	83.9	22	75
2018	22	66.7	23	75
2019	13	60.2	24	75
2020	17	95.5	25	95
		92-102		96

Nice improvement!  Just looking at the above, it is hard to say if he will keep getting better. Just from that, I’s put him in the not likely to do a lot worse but might keep improving some. Looking at his 2020 scores, which is cheating, he was crap Rounds 1-7 (62.7 ave) and great Rounds 8-17.  (118.4 ave)  Just 26, and so a higher season average is not unreasonable. Currently on my team.   

Steven May

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2011	9	53.6	19
2012	8	64.1	20
2013	17	58.5	21
2014	19	75.4	22
2015	18	74.9	23
2016	17	86.8	24	85
2017	18	84.1	25	85
2018	17	81.7	26	85
2019	8	70.8	27	85
2020	17	94.5	28	95
		91-103		95

Same sort of season as McDonald, but at age 28. Now he is 29 and playing Frogger for the first time. He did have a role change as I remember, so there is a reason for the jump. The question is can he outscore his price. Well, probably but less likely than McDonald. I cheated again and he also finished strong.  Also, I think he was about an 85 average player for a while, so a jump to 95 is not that huge. Very much on my watchlist. 

 

 

James Harmes

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2015	8	54.2	19
2016	19	69.3	20
2017	17	73.2	21	73
2018	22	83.6	22	83
2019	22	95.1	23	93
2020	13	64.2	24	93
		88-98		93

Classic fallen premium. Well, aside from him not quite being a premium. More a premium-like-object. So he is a classic fallen premium-like-object.  If I remember correctly he went to defense, which explains his defender rating and, well, sucked. Assuming he goes back into the mids, which I swear I read somewhere he is, I expect him to go right back to his mid-90s form. Just 25 years old, so he could even do better. Assuming he is healthy he’s in my side.

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