Player Review: Marc Murphy

Written by Thommo on March 2 2017

This is probably the closest he’ll come to a Premiership Medallion!

Dob: 19/07/1987

Team: Carlton

Position: Midfielder

Supercoach Price: $432,500

2016 Average: 79.5

2016 Games: 10

Bye Round: 11

Past (2015-2011): 103, 106, 92, 113, 118

PLAYER RATING

Age/Durability: ★★

After being such a reliable gun from 2009-2011, the wheels have fallen off for Marc Murphy in recent times. Over the last 3 years he has only averaged 16 matches per year and although he claims to “feel like he’s 22 again” he turns 30 in July this year.

2016 Form:

Murphy had surgery on his shoulder in the preseason and didn’t play a single pre-season game. Coming in underdone he surprisingly scored 123 in Round 1 against the Tiges but then struggled to 84 and 64 points over the next two matches. Concussion ended his Round 4 clash against the Dogs early (Q3) on 36 points.

Perhaps Roughead’s knee to his head knocked some sense into him as Murphy seemed to come good from there, posting scores of 101, 100, 90, 92 and 90 despite some tagging attention. Unfortunately we’ll never know if the Murphy of old was about to resurface as an ankle injury in the first quarter of Round 10 against Geelong ended his season prematurely.

Compared with 2015, Murphy averaged 6 less possessions per game and 24 less Supercoach points. However if you deduct those two injury affected matches he actually averaged 93 points per game, not terrible coming off zero pre-season.

Consistency: ★★★

At his peak in 2011, Murphy was ridiculously consistent managing 19 scores over 100 points and a low score of 79 points from 22 matches. Across 2015 and 2016 he was not as consistent but still only recorded 5 sub-80 scores across 29 matches, 2 of those being due to injury.

It would be great to see how the Blues’ engine room would perform with a fit Murphy and Cripps playing.

Ceiling: ★★★

With constant injury concerns Murph’s ceiling has gradually shrunk since 2011 when he regular scored over 130 points (with a high of 165 points). In the last two seasons he has scored over 130 only twice with a high of 151.

He is probably still capable of large scores if he ever remains fit long enough.

Tag: ★★★★

This is an interesting section for Murphy. The perception is that he can’t handle a tag but surprisingly he has taken some decent tagger scalps even as late as 2015.

Across 2016 he was tagged by Crowley but still scored 100 points and Greenwood and scored 90 points. Not bad for a guy who missed the pre-season although obviously Crowley was a shadow of his former pesky self by that time.

Looking at 2015 Murphy was tagged by Newnes (StK) and scored 123 points, Coniglio (GWS) and scored 83 (he copped an early head knock), Jacobs (NM) and scored 117 points and Crisp (Coll) and scored 130 points.

Going back even further he has taken the scalps of Kane Cornes, Mitch Wallis, Scott Selwood, Crowley multiple times and Cam Guthrie. So while Murph has had some bad times with taggers, particularly Macaffer, he does not Cotchin-out when tagged as I had expected.

Value: ★★★★★

If fit (I know, that’s a big if) Murphy will comfortably average 100 points per match, a 20+ point increase in his opening 2017 price.

Overall: ★★★

Murph rates well for his overall value and scoring history but his rating had to drop with such poor recent form and durability.

Verdict:

When players are injured for long periods of time, we quickly forget just how good they actually are. Murphy was elite in his mid-20s and probably deserved more recognition for that.

However, the obvious question remains: Can he stay fit?

Early signs are that Murph has had a full pre-season and is ready to roll but playing an “in-and-under” role he is such a high risk of injury. The emergence of Cripps will help shoulder the load and perhaps allow Murphy to spend more time outside the pack, however any drop in contested ball will cost him points in Supercoach.

Is he worth the risk?

I’m so on the fence with Murphy that I’m gathering splinters!2

Marc Murphy: Worth the risk?

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11 thoughts on “Player Review: Marc Murphy”

  1. Murphy’s best years were when he played second fiddle to Judd.
    Judd received ALL the attention and pressure from the captaincy,
    since this burden became Marc’s he has NOT managed to maintain
    that Elite status.

    I know nobody else thinks he is worth it but with Carlton’s great early draw
    (expecting them to at least be competitive before the byes) he is a real chance to average 105-110 over this period, not a season long keeper though is the problem.

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    1. Cripps will be the next Judd but even so I can’t see Murphy going elite again. Like you said, best case is a solid 100-105 across the season. Really a stepping stone only.

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  2. Heaps of value but i can’t do it i’ma very on eyed Carlton supporter too, i think swallow/ o’meara are the way to do this year

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    1. O’meara seems the goods early but I’m not sold on Swallow if he plays a wing. Hopefully JLT3 sheds more light on the best bargain midfield option.

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  3. What would he have to average to be a worthwhile pick?

    100 not enough as I think Swallow & O’Meara are capable of this. 105 would be okay, only 5 points off a premium….but this would be very best case scenario.

    FWIW I think Watson’s best case scenario would be 110, and Beams 115 so don’t think Smurph will be in my team….still not the worst pick by any means

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    1. I reckon we are underestimating the benefit of a player priced at 80 scoring at an average of 100! Maybe because there is so much midfield value this year.

      My only concern is the role and/or durability of Watson, Murphy, Swallow and Beams. I never thought I’d say this but O’meara seems to have the most SC friendly role!

      Our decision on the cheap mids could make or break our season.

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