A Little Perspective

Written by Schwarzwalder on April 19 2019

Last Monday I used our @SC_Talk Twitter account to point out a little perspective in these chaotic early days of SuperCoach. Many Coaches (myself included) are a little annoyed that, once again, they didn’t quite ‘nail’ the starting line-up and are sitting further behind than they’d hoped. While they might be behind, I feel it’s important to put it into some sort of perspective since a lot of Coaches already seem so deflated.

The difference between #10k & #50k in the Rankings is about 350pts.

The difference between #50K & #100K in the Rankings is about 400pts.

The Season is only four Rounds in, we still have nineteen Rounds to go. According to a recent poll this week, over two-thirds of the SCT Coaches still have at least 28 trades in hand. Long way to go…….plenty of trades left over……..With a diligent trade plan and a little patience, there’s no reason you can’t chop into that points difference over the next few weeks.

I’d also like to apply a bit of perspective when assessing the early season ‘bolters’, those players that are scoring points at will in this early stage. I might make myself a little unpopular with a few predictions, but healthy debate is also an important part of our Forum here.

Keeping in mind that the greatest SuperCoach player of all-time, Gary Ablett, only cracked the 140avg for a season on one occasion (back in 2009) and that Scott ‘De-Pendlebury’ NEVER cracked the 130 season avg in his career (best was 129avg in 2011), then it’s important to view the early season bolters with a little perspective…………

Lachie Neale (BRL) – top scorer at the minute with a 146avg from his first four games with the Lions. I believe Chillo/Hutta pointed out earlier this pre-season that only Dangerfield has scored more total pts over the last three years than this man.

Has always been a SC-Gun but has taken it to another level while playing away from Nat Fyfe. Has only missed two games over the last five years so durability is rarely an issue with Neale. There’s a bit of x-factor being at a new club but I’d still expect his average to drop back to about 120ppg if he stays fit. Cemented into the Top8 MIDs.

Patrick Cripps (CAR) – We’ve been preaching about this Beast for a few years now. Mainly because his contested disposal numbers are second to none and that plays a massive part in Champion Data’s scoring system. I’m tipping Cripps to break the 130avg this season (given he stays fit, of course).

Lachie Whitfield (GWS) – If he played for a Victorian club, he’d be dubbed a ‘superstar’. Very impressive start to 2019, following on from his big finish to 2018. Is a Top6 DEF and you’ll need him at some stage but a 110-115avg is more realistic than the 129avg he’s running with at the moment.

Travis Boak (PTA) – Probably the most contentious of the current Top10 scorers. Has started the season with 119, 126, 136 & 134 and is currently the #1 FWD in a year of tough forward selections. While that sounds great, Boak has never averaged more than 106ppg in a season (reached that twice, back in 2013 & 2014) and has been on a downward trajectory ever since. He’s also averaging 34 disposals after the first month of footy, far better than his 27 disposals avg back in 2014.

Now I may upset a few Coaches here………but given the history of rare scorers over 120ppg each season and Boak’s history, I can’t see him doing better than a 105avg for the year. According to my calculations, that’d mean he averages about 100ppg for the rest of the year. For those reasons, I don’t see a need to break the bank getting him into my team too quickly.

Brodie Grundy (COL) – Absolutely baffled by those Coaches that gave up on Grundy after Rd1. Averaging 127 after four weeks of 2019 and would expect him to hold his form for the remainder of the season.

Jack Macrae (WBD) – Sitting around the same numbers as his breakout year of 2018 and expecting him to continue his form and end the season somewhere between 120 – 125ppg.

Marcus Bontempelli (WBD) – We all know how promising this fella is, I believe he’s been in all our teams at some stage over the past 2-3 years. Beveridge (Mr Magnets) has a tendency to play The Bont up forward quite a bit. Whether that was forced through injury was always a week-to-week proposition.

One thing is clear…….The Bont has played four games in the midfield in 2019 and has averaged 126 in that time. If he continues to get this much midfield time then a Top8 MID position is merely a formality. At worst, he’ll end the season with a 110avg if he’s constantly playing midfield.

Jake Lloyd (SYD) – Currently running at a 124avg. Not too sure the opposition Coaches rate him otherwise he’d cop more of a tag more often. Finished 2018 with a 112 avg and no reason he won’t repeat that again this year.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Ben Cunnington (NTH)     – Knows how to find the ball and wins plenty of contested possessions but hasn’t averaged more than 96ppg in a full season. Not sure his disposals are having an impact in the Champion Data friendly fashion. Currently running at a 115avg, it’s hard to see him crack the ton over a full season.

Tom Liberatore (WBD) – Was once a Top 8 MID in the past but injuries/form/motivation have slowed him down at various stages. If you started with Libba at $300K then you’ve done well. I’d say this is the last week to jump onboard if you believe Libba will be a Top8 MID in 2019 otherwise that ship has sailedat his best he could continue on at 105-110.

Special Mention Tom Rockliff (PTA): The ultimate burn man has now hit 29 years of age and this might just be his last crack at a big season. One thing is for sure, he’ll miss games……Rocky has only ever completed one full season so be prepared. If you started with Rocky then the gamble has paid off. If you believe he’ll continue on in this vein, then you can still get him in this week at a heavily discounted price (to his current form and his best form).

Keep things in perspective, Coaches! Good luck!


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21 thoughts on “A Little Perspective”

  1. excelent points there Schwarzwalder
    what do you think about going the other way downgrading an overpriced player like neale before his price drops to say a heeney & pocketing 150k


            1. that’s the 2 reasons that you do trade a premo , performance & price
              teams know to tag him now , his av will drop to 120 btw now & the end of the season
              with a trade to heeney who should score around 120 also , makes a guaranteed 150k in the hand , better than using that trade to bring in a risky rookie & hoping they make 150k imo


          1. when you have the opportunity to use rooks , mids & premos to build your bank & you only use rookies & midpricers ,
            you limit yourself to only 66.6% of your cash generation


    1. If we had unlimited trades this strategy would work brilliantly but with only 30 trades it’s just a little too hard. You’d end up not getting a full premo team. Still, i’d love to see someone run the numbers on this theory to truly test it out.


      1. It is not mad in theory, but you need someone way over their real value, and at least one player to bring in for them way under. Also, enough trades to get away with it. One of those things that you can do if the opportunity is there, but is a bad idea to force.


        1. I’ve just done something that looks very mad in theory…traded out Gawn for ROB
          Figured I’d lose 40-45pts p/w with that, but allow me to double upgrade next week M. Parker to T. Kelly & Duursma to Sicily, from which I figure I’ll be up 70-80pts p/w.
          In the meantime, ROB has sole ruck to himself for 6ish weeks, by which time I’m hoping he’ll reach $350-400K & a reachable (I hope) upgrade back to Grundy/Gawn.
          Will make or break my season.

          *N. B….I made this decision waking up quite seedy after a couple of heavy days & nights


  2. Great write up Schwarz,
    I had a terrible start to the year, but have slowly clawed my way up the ranking, by trying to not panic, and minimise making stupid kneejerk trades.
    Rd 1: 62,000
    Rd 2: 43,000
    Rd3: 31,000
    Rd 4: 14,000
    Trade wise:
    Kept Heeney when lots of coaches Bailed out.
    Got Rockliff in before price rise, so far so good.

    And Just traded out Parker to RoB for cash via DPP
    and Miers to Worpel, might have gone early on this one, but my rationale is my forward line has only two keepers (danger & Heeney) and I think Worpel is potentially a Keeper With the Hawks depleted Mids, and I think he should be a consistent performer, and I have Drew and Rozee who are great cash cow’s and will make plenty over the next few weeks.

    And my one POD is Josh Kennedy (swans) who is ave 109 with 1% ownership,
    so I’m rapted the way he’s going so far.


  3. Great stuff Schwarz. Will consider Libba OUT when he peaks or at the first signs of flagging.
    He has already deliver way beyond my expectations and a bit like shares, it doesn’t pay to be greedy. We’ll see.


    1. Agreed. I’m hoping Libba and Macrae’s prices eventually get close to each other, so it will only need one downgrade to make the upgrade.


  4. Good write up.
    I’m personally sticking fat with darling and dunks. Will just look to cull rookies and upgrade weaker scorers until I get to them.
    I’ve got danger,Kelly, dunks, darling as my forward line. Darling top scored with a 90 last round and he is my most wanted trade out of my team. I just don’t see the point. Dunks and darling will find their groove. I hope! I just don’t want to sideways, going to double down to stack and ROB. Parker is out. Now I’m just trying to figure out who to drop out of Scott, gibbons, setter, butters for stack


    1. yeh , not worth trading dunks now ,
      no value in it unless there’s a rocky type coming through @ 300k ,
      next week he will pretty much be scoring @ his price point ,
      you’ll have to treat him like a mid pricer & hope he has a purple patch ,or if the dogs get an injury to libba or bont , he replaces them & takes their pts ,
      @ least he’s a DPP , he’ll play each week & his $ value wont drop much further


  5. Great write up i’m amazing with The difference between #10k & #50k in the Rankings is about 350pts.

    Maybe i’m not so cooked 😛


  6. Nice write up Schwartz.
    For some further reassurance for those of us struggling. Lets say you’ve got a mate who is ranked 10k averaging 2200 and you’re ranked 30k averaging 2150. **Note yes this is a real scenario where I am the struggling coach unfortunately**
    He has got Neale and Whitfield and I do not. I’ve got Oliver and Crisp instead. If Neale ends the season averaging 120, that means 115 from here on, Oliver let’s say 110 meaning 113 from now. Whitfield 110 from now and Crisp 95.
    My mate’s side now averages 50pts less per week, back to 2150. Meanwhile my average has improved to 2175. Beating him by 25 points on average will have me ranked significantly higher come seasons end. In fact I need only beat him by 11 per week to finish higher.
    If you’re currently ranked 50k you need only average 20 points more per week than someone ranked 10k to finish above them.



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