AFL Finals – Week Three

Written by Schwarzwalder on September 22 2017

Can you imagine it? 90 000 Tiger fans, starved of success, gathering to form the largest Tiger Army in existence? If they can win, it’ll be the club’s first Grand Final appearance since 1982…….

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20 thoughts on “AFL Finals – Week Three”

  1. In the 9 times from 2001 onwards that the team who scored the most points in the home and away season has made the grand final, they have won it 5 times. However, Richmond and GWS fans should take some comfort in the fact that before Hawthorn’s back-to-back-to-back effort, that number was 2/6.

    They will be less comforted by the fact that the higher-scoring of the two grand final teams during that time period has won it 9 times, whereas the stingier team has only won it five times. Being better at both doesn’t seem to help much, as only 3 of the 8 grand finalists who have had better records for both points for and against have won. This goes up to 2/4 when they have had the best record at both.

    But they should take comfort in the fact that in the 12 times during that period that the team with the highest percentage has made the grand final, they have only won it 4 times, and that across all 16 of those years, the grand finalist with the better percentage has only won 5 times.

    They should also take comfort in the fact that when the minor premier has made the grand final (which has happened 12 times since 2001, and in all but one year since 2006), they have only won 5 times. Furthermore, 10 of the last 16 premiership teams finished lower on the ladder than the runner up.

    Before Richmond fans get too excited, it’s worth noting that the minor premier has a much better record against the team that finished third, having beaten them in the grand final 2 out of the 3 times they have met in that time period. On the other hand, GWS fans need to keep in mind that no team since 2006 has made the grand final from 4th. And that they lost it that year. To the minor premier.

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  2. ICYMI…..Adelaide played great, Geelong did not. The Cats were never in the game at any stage. Dangerfield and Selwood tried their guts out, but Adelaide seem to be the best ‘team’ right now. Whether they’re the best team next Saturday, time will tell.

    ADELAIDE 21.10.136 def GEELONG 10.15.75

    Sam Jacobs 131
    Rory Laird 129
    Matt Crouch 119
    Charlie Cameron 117
    Paul Seedsman 111
    Brad Crouch 110
    Rory Sloane 92
    Tom Lynch 91
    Richard Douglas 83
    David MacKay 81
    Jake Lever 78
    Josh Jenkins 75
    Eddie Betts 70
    Kyle Hartigan 70
    Daniel Talia 68
    Andy Otten 66
    Rory Atkins 66
    Taylor Walker 65
    Riley Knight 60
    Jake Kelly 50
    Luke Brown 39
    Hugh Greenwood 26

    GEELONG
    Joel Selwood 130
    Patrick Dangerfield 119
    Steven Motlop 113
    Mitchell Duncan 110
    Lachlan Henderson 80
    Darcy Lang 73
    Zac Smith 71
    Mark Blicavs 69
    Thomas Stewart 69
    Zach Tuohy 67
    Nakia Cockatoo 67
    Rhys Stanley 65
    Andrew Mackie 64
    Sam Menegola 59
    Jake Kolodjashnij 58
    Harry Taylor 50
    Tom Hawkins 44
    Daniel Menzel 44
    Scott Selwood 42
    Brandan Parfitt 40
    Tom Lonergan 37
    Jed Bews 29

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      1. The worry for Cotchin though is one more fine and he’s rubbed out. Not enough for a suspension surely, but a fine, we’ll have to wait and see.

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        1. Indeed. But I can’t see how anyone could justify fining him for going for the ball. Impact aside, the contact was incidental, and came as a result of a perfectly reasonable action.

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          1. Impact’s contribution has resulted in 100% of MRP calls this year. I agree, would be a terrible call, but precedent has been set.

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                1. Tucked his arm in and used his body as a battering ram. Not sure if he deserves a suspension for it but he definitely went the bump, then the ball.

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                  1. have to agree RB. He knew exactly where he was aiming and he went close a couple of other times too. Once a player goes out of the game for concussion like that, there has to be some repercussion … and it really hurt GWS …

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                    1. I believe he tucked his arm in and went low, he wasn’t looking for head contact . I do barrack for Richmond
                      but I cannot believe he has a problem.

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  3. GWS can go back to sydney , have their man buns trimmed , go to the tanning salon , have a wax , then work out why they didn’t make the GF.

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  4. Some more stats:

    Some of the stats that I have previously shared have tended to suggest that a good defence will go a long way towards getting a team to the grand final, but that offensive firepower is more useful when it comes to actually winning it. I have long suspected that the fact that the grand final is played on the wide surface of the MCG (rather than a narrow, shutdown-friendly ground like Etihad or Subiaco) might have a lot to do with this, but that’s a discussion for another time.

    There are other statistical indicators of offensive firepower beyond average points-for. Two rather interesting ones are a team’s highest points scored, and lowest points scored:

    Of the 6 times since 2001 that the team at the top of the ‘highest points scored’ table has made the grand final, they have won it 4 times. Interestingly, during that time, the grand finalist with the better ranking in this category has only won 50 % of the time (8/16).

    In the 7 times during that same period that the team at the top of the ‘lowest points scored’ table has made the grand final, they have won it 5 times. On top of that, in that whole period, the team with the better ranking in this category has won it 11 out of 16 times, or 69 %.

    The one and only time since 2001 that a team has had the highest ranking in both categories, they made grand final, and won it. This is not exactly a great sample size, but it certainly fits in with the other stats. Moreover, when a grand finalist has been ranked higher in both categories, they have won it 5 out of 7 times, or 71 %.

    The fact that the higher ranked team in ‘highest points scored’ has only won it 50 % of the time suggests that the ‘lowest points scored’ category is more significant. This makes sense if you think about it: any halfway decent team can put a bottom 4 team to the sword, but a high ranking in the ‘lowest points scored’ category suggests a great degree of irrepressibility.

    With all that in mind, here are the rankings for this year:

    Highest points scored:
    #1 Geelong (163)
    #2 GWS (160)
    #3 Richmond (155)
    #4 Adelaide (153)

    Lowest points scored:
    #1 Adelaide (66)
    #2 Richmond (64)

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  5. Been against fines and suspensions for ‘ footballing acts’ all season. Still can’t get over Dangerfields’ and Grundys’ suspensions. That needs to be reviewed next year .

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  6. MRP made a mockery of head high contact when Toby Greene got off after kicking Dahlhaus in the face.Don’t know where they could go after that! Wines got away with it as well, the same week.It certainly needs sorting out.

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