Ain’t sayin’ he a Gold(stein) Digger

Written by Schwarzwalder on February 17 2016

It’s a question that comes back to haunt us every year……..do we start with the most expensive player overall? At all costs? Normally that player’s name is Ablett and it’s a no-brainer (except for that dodgy shoulder and limited pre-season last year). This year that player’s name is Todd Goldstein.

No other way to describe it, he was simply massive in 2015! With the loss of Ablett & Rockliff early, Goldy provided Supercoaches with a reliable Captain each week (except for that Freo game – 44 pts). As a result, he is the most expensive player of the SC competition this year.

Only two players have been able to back up a 125+ season average in Supercoach history……….God & Dependlebury. At their peak, Hodge and Judd have been over the magical mark. Even Rockliff had his 132 avg in 2014. But backing it up proved too much, even for those SC Champions. (For the record, Nat Fyfe has scored 122 & 124 in the last two seasons. Very close indeed!).

There have already been a few variables of the Ruck line presented during the pre-season. Many Coaches have chosen the ‘Set & Forget’ method with Goldy at R1. Plenty are using the same method but without Goldy (Martin & Jacobs/NicNat). Others see Lobbe as a decent R2 option and ‘stepping stone’ to a (hopefully) cheaper Goldstein after the first few games. After all, Goldy faces off with Sauce, S.Martin, Gawn & 211 in his first four outings………not exactly slouches! They are the 2nd, 3rd, 4th & 8th most expensive starting Ruckmen.

After some healthy debate with Raj in the RMT thread, I thought a closer look at the stats might be in order. I’ve calculated a few of Goldy’s averages against his first four opponents this season for your viewing pleasure………..

 

First four opponents: ADE (Jacobs), BRIS (S.Martin), MELB (M.Gawn) & FREO (Sandilands)

 

Todd Goldstein’s 2015 averages: 45 hitouts, 15 disposals, 128 SC pts

 

Goldy Vs Sauce
Goldstein’s averages against Adelaide over the last three years: 34 hitouts, 10 disposals, 102 SC pts

Goldy Vs S.Martin
Goldstein’s averages against Brisbane over the last two years (Martin in the ruck): 39 hitouts, 15 disposals, 126 SC pts

Goldy Vs Gawn
Goldstein’s averages against Melbourne over the last three years: 43 hitouts, 18 disposals, 138 SC pts

Goldy Vs 211
Goldstein’s averages against Freo over the last three years: 32 hitouts, 10 disposals, 83 SC pts

 

Take what you will from these numbers, I think there’s a case to be made either way (to start or not to start?). In the end it comes down to personal preference, team structure & your overall plan for the season. Normally I’d run a poll for this sort of conundrum, but there will be some Ruck questions coming up next week for ‘THE TEAM@SCT’ (don’t forget to vote on those!). Good luck with your Goldstein decision!

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33 thoughts on “Ain’t sayin’ he a Gold(stein) Digger”

  1. Nice Write up Schwarz mate…

    I think I have decided to go with SET & FORGET Ruck option……this position is an important position and I am not prepared to stuff it up….so at this stage I am going with….will only change this if one of these players gets injured before RD1…..

    T GOLDSTEIN, S MARTIN (M King)

    These 2 players are reliable and high scoring RUCKS available in the SC currently….IMO it is the safe option, & HOPEFULLY I will not have to worry about this position for the rest of the season…..

    Cheers,
    Raj

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  2. To expensive to start with goldy this year has been my set and forget last couple of years i see a lobb – Goldy trade happening though. Would like Goldy do have a couple of bad games to drop in price :p #freolastyear

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  3. The big question is, if Goldstein starts at 695K (which he is), and averages 112 over the first four rounds (as suggested above), what will that do to his price?
    I realise this is an unfortunately complicated query, which leads to my next question – why is it so difficult to model the potential price fluctuations for a player in this game?

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  4. It’s so hard to predict. Using 3 years worth of stats doesn’t take into account Gawn’s improvement, or Goldy’s last year. Also North started slowly last year but may start faster this year which will help Goldy’s early scores.

    True he scored 44 against Sandy early last year, but he scored 116 late in the year.
    Goldy will drop in price, but will he drop below $600k like he did last year?

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  5. The “too expensive” argument doesn’t really make any sense to me, at least at the start of the year. His price is based on his form last year; if you think he’s going to be as good as he was last year, then forget his price and just pick him.

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  6. I went set and forget last year with Goldy and Jacobs and it was the only part of my team I got right. Right now I’m going with Martin and Lobbe with the idea of getting in Goldy about rd 4-6. But that could change and I might just start with Goldy but that would mean downgrading a premo or mid pricer.

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  7. Goldy and Gawn for me.

    Gawn’s the new Goldy. Well, he will be once Goldy is no longer Goldy. Cause you can’t have two Goldys. Not at once anyway.

    Make sense?

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  8. Worth remembering that Goldy hasn’t rucked against Gawn, so the assumption of 138 against Melbourne is purely assumption.

    That potentially brings that 112 over first 4 rounds down further.

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  9. As Trevor said, the extra 300k (assuming you go R2 of Lobbe) lets you buy a keeper elsewhere. So planning to “trade in” Goldy circa round 6 isn’t really costing you a trade.

    It just substitutes one keeper for another keeper. Hopefully one you can buy at a discounted price rather than a historically high price.

    A great example there could be Buddy or Gibbs instead of a rookie. Or it could be Barlow in your team instead of Anderson. Or Shaw instead of Malceski. The choice is yours.

    My take is why would you buy a player you KNOW will drop in price when there is one that you KNOW will go up in price?

    You are choosing to start plenty of other players in your side to make money that you know won’t be there at season’s end. Why is choosing or not choosing Goldy any different? Why is upgrading to Goldy a wasted trade, but upgrading to Shaw not?

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  10. Is anyone considering keeping money to upgrades to Goldy as well as a rookie upgrade? Coz by R6 I think you will need about $100k plus a rookie if you want to upgrade Lobbe to Goldy.

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