AllSaints Premiums 2019

Written by Schwarzwalder on August 27 2018

Top players, by position below.

If there is anyone you are looking for who is not here (eg Jayden Short), you can estimate prices in the following manner.

Jayden Short: 1887 points from 22 games > ave. equals 85.7727273

At the beginning of this season, the blessed number (the factor that SuperCoach used to calculate prices) was approx. $5987. Every year over the last 7 years this factor has increased by between 0.43% and 1.1%, so to get Jayden’s proj’d price range for 2019 multiply his average by the blessed number and add the percentage range:

LOW = 85.7727273 * 5498 * 1.0043 = $473,606
HIGH = 85.7727273 * 5498 * 1.011 = $476,766

This is how all pro’j’d prices have been calculated below and is the initial equation I’ve used for all previous posts. I have excluded any player who played 7 games or less from the below as their proj’d prices have all been posted already. Unless SuperCoach throws a complete spanner in the works (deflation or massive inflation), I am confident that these are 99.9% accurate.

Happy planning SCTers!

DEF
Jake Lloyd SYD 112.05 $618,490 $622,802
Rory Laird ADE 108.25 $597,539 $601,705
Elliot Yeo WCE 107.86 $595,406 $599,558
James Sicily HAW 105.07 $579,993 $584,037
Kade Simpson CAR 105.05 $579,862 $583,905
Lachie Whitfield GWS 99.86 $551,246 $555,090
Tom McDonald MEL 97.59 $538,686 $542,442
Angus Brayshaw MEL 97.05 $535,730 $539,465
Shannon Hurn WCE 96.41 $532,177 $535,888
Jack Crisp COL 95.77 $528,665 $532,351
Jeremy Howe COL 91.59 $505,566 $509,091
Matthew Suckling WBD 91.55 $505,330 $508,853
Heath Shaw GWS 90.70 $500,663 $504,154
Michael Hurley ESS 90.60 $500,111 $503,598
Luke Ryan FRE 90.25 $498,179 $501,653
Jarrad McVeigh SYD 89.72 $495,266 $498,719
Jeremy McGovern WCE 89.00 $491,279 $494,705
Shane Savage STK 88.67 $489,439 $492,852
Harris Andrews BRL 88.44 $488,213 $491,616
Jimmy Webster STK 87.00 $480,239 $483,588
Thomas Jonas PTA 86.78 $479,013 $482,352
Jason Johannisen WBD 85.77 $473,465 $476,766
Jayden Short RIC 85.77 $473,465 $476,766
Thomas Stewart GEE 85.29 $470,776 $474,059
Connor Blakely FRE 85.08 $469,624 $472,898
Zach Tuohy GEE 84.82 $468,196 $471,460
Alex Witherden BRL 83.81 $462,628 $465,853
Jordan Lewis MEL 83.67 $461,839 $465,059
Luke Hodge BRL 83.16 $459,031 $462,231
Alex Rance RIC 82.55 $455,650 $458,827
Tom Doedee ADE 82.20 $453,743 $456,907
Christian Salem MEL 82.05 $452,902 $456,060
Jarrod Harbrow GCS 81.86 $451,887 $455,037
Steven May GCS 81.71 $451,016 $454,160
Nick Vlastuin RIC 81.58 $450,315 $453,455
Bailey Williams WBD 81.36 $449,091 $452,222
Jamie MacMillan NTH 81.09 $447,621 $450,742
Paul Seedsman ADE 81.05 $447,410 $450,529
Tom Cutler BRL 81.00 $447,119 $450,237
Matthew Scharenberg COL 80.53 $444,522 $447,621
Nathan Wilson FRE 80.19 $442,651 $445,737
Aliir Aliir SYD 79.55 $439,090 $442,152

MID
Tom Mitchell HAW 129.09 $712,581 $717,549
Jackson Macrae WBD 127.05 $701,330 $706,219
Patrick Dangerfield GEE 121.67 $671,599 $676,281
Patrick Cripps CAR 119.41 $659,137 $663,733
Clayton Oliver MEL 114.68 $633,043 $637,456
Nathan Fyfe FRE 113.87 $628,543 $632,925
Joshua Kelly GWS 113.80 $628,175 $632,555
Lachie Neale FRE 111.86 $617,486 $621,792
Adam Treloar COL 109.46 $604,227 $608,440
Stephen Coniglio GWS 108.43 $598,525 $602,698
Andrew Gaff WCE 108.21 $597,321 $601,486
Elliot Yeo WCE 107.86 $595,406 $599,558
Gary Ablett GEE 106.94 $590,332 $594,448
Mitchell Duncan GEE 106.20 $586,223 $590,310
Joel Selwood GEE 105.09 $580,101 $584,146
Callan Ward GWS 104.64 $577,592 $581,619
Marcus Bontempelli WBD 104.00 $574,079 $578,082
Dustin Martin RIC 103.86 $573,291 $577,288
Scott Pendlebury COL 103.52 $571,451 $575,435
Luke Parker SYD 103.48 $571,188 $575,170
Shaun Higgins NTH 103.20 $569,663 $573,635
Sebastian Ross STK 102.86 $567,771 $571,729
Dayne Beams BRL 102.71 $566,982 $570,935
Lachlan Hunter WBD 102.33 $564,879 $568,818
Edward Curnow CAR 101.71 $561,462 $565,377
Steele Sidebottom COL 101.64 $561,032 $564,943
Dyson Heppell ESS 101.59 $560,781 $564,691
Matt Crouch ADE 101.56 $560,586 $564,494
Justin Westhoff PTA 101.23 $558,774 $562,670
Zachary Merrett ESS 100.36 $554,006 $557,869
Sam Menegola GEE 100.05 $552,250 $556,100
Lachie Whitfield GWS 99.86 $551,246 $555,090
Devon Smith ESS 97.86 $540,206 $543,973
Isaac Heeney SYD 97.48 $538,068 $541,819
Oliver Wines PTA 97.32 $537,196 $540,941
Angus Brayshaw MEL 97.05 $535,730 $539,465
Josh Kennedy SYD 96.82 $534,436 $538,162
Robbie Gray PTA 96.81 $534,388 $538,114
Rory Sloane ADE 96.58 $533,139 $536,856
Bryce Gibbs ADE 96.50 $532,679 $536,393
Taylor Adams COL 96.37 $531,953 $535,662
Ben Cunnington NTH 96.32 $531,676 $535,382
David Mundy FRE 95.95 $529,668 $533,361
Dayne Zorko BRL 95.82 $528,916 $532,603
Jack Redden WCE 95.32 $526,156 $529,824
Josh Dunkley WBD 95.11 $524,980 $528,641
Toby McLean WBD 94.68 $522,643 $526,287
Jared Polec PTA 94.59 $522,141 $525,781
Jack Steven STK 94.59 $522,141 $525,781
Jack Steele STK 94.43 $521,245 $524,879
David Zaharakis ESS 93.76 $517,580 $521,189
Tim Kelly GEE 93.18 $514,363 $517,949
Jaeger O’Meara HAW 92.70 $511,703 $515,271
Jarryd Lyons GCS 92.47 $510,454 $514,013
Marc Murphy CAR 92.38 $509,962 $513,518
Mitchell Wallis WBD 91.89 $507,226 $510,762
Liam Shiels HAW 91.86 $507,051 $510,586
Mitch Robinson BRL 91.47 $504,934 $508,454
Luke Shuey WCE 90.76 $501,020 $504,514
Tom Phillips COL 90.09 $497,301 $500,768

RUC
Brodie Grundy COL 130.45 $720,108 $725,129
Max Gawn MEL 127.50 $703,799 $708,706
Stefan Martin BRL 105.68 $583,363 $587,430
Ben McEvoy HAW 101.88 $562,390 $566,311
Todd Goldstein NTH 100.95 $557,268 $561,154
Toby Nankervis RIC 98.19 $542,011 $545,790

FWD
James Sicily HAW 105.07 $579,993 $584,037
Tom Hawkins GEE 101.85 $562,211 $566,131
Justin Westhoff PTA 101.23 $558,774 $562,670
Lance Franklin SYD 100.11 $552,613 $556,465
Sam Menegola GEE 100.05 $552,250 $556,100
Devon Smith ESS 97.86 $540,206 $543,973
Tom McDonald MEL 97.59 $538,686 $542,442
Isaac Heeney SYD 97.48 $538,068 $541,819
Robbie Gray PTA 96.81 $534,388 $538,114
Jack Gunston HAW 96.05 $530,182 $533,879
David Mundy FRE 95.95 $529,668 $533,361
Luke Breust HAW 95.14 $525,152 $528,813
Josh Dunkley WBD 95.11 $524,980 $528,641
Toby McLean WBD 94.68 $522,643 $526,287
Jack Riewoldt RIC 92.86 $512,607 $516,180
Mitchell Wallis WBD 91.89 $507,226 $510,762
Jesse Hogan MEL 91.80 $506,735 $510,268
Mitch Robinson BRL 91.47 $504,934 $508,454
Rhys Stanley GEE 89.07 $491,647 $495,075
Kane Lambert RIC 88.75 $489,899 $493,315
Tim Taranto GWS 88.71 $489,702 $493,116
Chad Wingard PTA 88.62 $489,176 $492,587
Blake Acres STK 88.42 $488,059 $491,462
Travis Boak PTA 88.05 $486,010 $489,399
Michael Walters FRE 87.83 $484,839 $488,220
Jordan De Goey COL 87.76 $484,460 $487,838
Jarrad Waite NTH 87.38 $482,362 $485,725
Jack Darling WCE 86.89 $479,626 $482,970
Shane Edwards RIC 86.68 $478,483 $481,819
Jason Johannisen WBD 85.77 $473,465 $476,766
Brett Deledio GWS 85.44 $471,653 $474,941
Dale Thomas CAR 85.10 $469,751 $473,026

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16 thoughts on “AllSaints Premiums 2019”

  1. Awesome work AllSaints!!

    Looking at those projected prices for the top 7 Mids looks like we are going to have our work cut out for us in selecting what players to squeeze into the cap! Ruck as well!

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  2. PLEASE NOTE ALL, THAT THERE IS A TYPO I FORGOT TO CORRECT.

    The blessed number was $5498 this year (correct in the maths and therefore all proj’d prices are accurate, but not in the text above). Just make sure you use this number and NOT $5987 as stated in the text … as the results will alarm you!!

    Happy planning 😉

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  3. Are you sure these are correct? There are a hell of a lot of players priced over $600,000 and going by last year l can only record there being around 5 to 6 players in FWD line priced over $500,000 and if your correct well that means there will be about 11 players over that mark. And there are alot of players priced over $550,000 in the midfield. Let’s hope that Supercoach is kind to us so we can at least have a decent starting team because by the look of that everyone will have to rock with 5 rookies in the mid because Cripps, Danger, McRae and oliver are must haves.

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    1. There was a 31% increase in the number of players that averaged 100+ this year (43) compared to 2017 (31).

      They won’t be nice and everyone will be priced accordingly. We will be forced to pick and choose.

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    2. nothing in this world is ever certain.

      what i do know is that for the last seven years, bar none, the rules for Supercoach pricing have been consistent. what Father Dougal refers to as the magic number (slightly different from my ‘blessed number’, but for these purposes, ie starting prices, it is the same). It is a mathematical ‘factor’ that SUPERCOACH use for pricing every year.

      Every year for the last 7 years, this ‘magic number’ has increased by anything from 0.43% to 1.1% (last year). To be safe, I have calculated the above price ranges based on these historical extremes.

      In short, unless SUPERCOACH fundamentally change the way prices are calculated, these will be 99.9% accurate.

      Looking back further in history, there was a point when the magic number actually deflated, if you like, a corrective adjustment was made. Not unexpected in the early stages of something as complicated as SuperCoach, but if you look at the levels of scoring (ie winning totals, averages of top 5% of players etc.) i see no reason for them to change it. the model is proven and it works.

      I think part of the magic of SuperCoach is in that annual struggle of putting your initial team together within the budget confines and spending the rest of the season striving to maximise points while getting to full premium.

      it certainly ain’t broke, so i don’t expect them to fix it. the AFL may feel rules need to change for the sake of it, but i’m hoping the SC rulers are wiser than that 😉

      i hope that helps. one thing i do know for certain and that is, if they do decide to make a price ‘adjustment’, the comparative prices will ring true. it’s all relative!

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    1. Pleasure mate. The least I can do given all the help i’ve received this year. Hoping that there will be much more to follow in pre-season. Love doing analysis.

      On DPPs, can you remember who posted about positional heatmaps earlier in the year. I need to find these to start analysing it. At the moment, I’m just guessing like everyone else, but would be happy to look at it if I can get the right pointers.

      Surely you’re right about Yeo and Brayshaw. I think Dunkley may be a MID only too 🙁

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      1. ps just saw your comment on the other prices thread, so i guess this can wait until finals have been completed.

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  4. One day post SC18 and I’m having withdrawal symptons already. So what to do ???

    Take Sainters stats and come up with a draft team for 2019….thats what to do !! Only problem would be any change in position, otherwise, Allsaints formula used if someone didn’t appear on his list.

    Happy for some criticism, but make sure you attach your own first draft at the same time !! This team has a value of $9,914,100 based on projected 2019 prices.

    B Smith, Hanley, Biggs, Doch, Z Williams, Rich, Rookie, Rookie

    Dusty, M Crouch, Heppell, Oliver, Cogs, Cotchin, Clarke D, P Wilson, R, R, R

    Ryder, Grundy, R

    Bennell, Setterfield, Wingard, D Smith, T Greene, Daniher R, R

    I have an appointment with my psychiatrist on the 32nd of August !!

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  5. Got me thinking, NicNat wasn’t applied a full discount (30%) this year despite not playing a game in 2017. His 2016 average was 105.9 meaning he was only given 20%.

    Precedent has been set and I believe Docherty will be given the same treatment. Nevertheless, still a lock at just over $500k.

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    1. Thanks Hutta and well spotted. How the fu3k did I miss NicNat?! VERY disappointed in myself. And apologies everyone.as that there is a proverbial spanner …

      For a safer 2019 price on Doc. divide the given ranges by 7 and multiply by 8.

      As a perfectionist, I’m ashamed 🙁

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    1. Hey Wighty
      Email me at ‘olibryant at gmail dot com’ (don’t want you to get any spam – Schwarzwalder).
      I’ve started building algorithm tools for predicting player outputs/scores based on 7 years data, and it seems finals are not exempted. Getting close to a useful tool, but in the meantime I am happy to share a basic modelling tool with you. If you like, a checklist for those you’re considering. based on four/five categories. Must tick EVERY box if you don’t want to ruin your season 😉

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