(Written & Created By Hot Sauce)
Preview
Schwarzwalder: Sauce, I need you to go back with me!
Hot Sauce: Where?
Schwarzwalder: Back to the Future!
Every coach looks for any angle to secure the optimal selection at the start of every season. The perfect selections are those that will finish top 3 in their position and/or provide great value considering their price. In this series of articles, I will look at players performances in the 2nd half of 2018 that could potentially be under-priced heading into 2019.
An example of this is Jackson Macrae, who averaged 106.9 in 2017, but averaged 111.1 post-bye, 117.1 in his last 8 games and 121.8 in his last 4 games. From this late-season form, you could see there was a chance of Macrae being under-priced in 2018 and therefore an attractive prospect in your initial team selection.
In Part ONE of this series, I will look at the stats of premium defenders that fit this description.
Hot Sauce: Relax Schwarzwalder, it’s me, it’s Sauce.
Schwarzwalder: No, it can’t be, I just sent you back to the future.
Hot Sauce: I know you just sent me back to the future, but I’m back. I’m back from the future.
Schwarzwalder: Great Scott!
PREMIUM DEFENDERS
Jason Johannisen (WB, $465,600)
JJ exploded onto the radar late in 2016 displaying lightning speed and plenty of flair, catching the eye of all SC coaches heading into the 2017 season. Much like his Doggies, JJ disappointingly didn’t reach his potential over the course of the next two seasons, despite showing plenty of flashes of his brilliance.
JJ’s 2nd half of last season has again tempted us coaches with three games of 100+ including a scintillating 156 in a round 20 win over the Saints. Playing all 22 games last season, JJ averaged a lowly 79.3 between rounds 1 to 11 but then increased that by 7.6% (highest amongst all premium defenders) to 92.3.
JJ is priced at an attractive ~85.6 so his post-bye average is 7.8% higher than what he is priced at (4th highest amongst all premium defenders) and his average only improves further when looking at his last 8 games (96.9) and final 4 games (100.8). Add the new kick-in rules this season which JJ took the majority of for the Dogs last season and given his penchant to exploit his run & dash he could well join the elite group of defenders.
Risky pick but could be a great POD.
Alex Witherden (BL, $455,000)
Alex Witherden has had a sparkling start to his SC career, and it is hard to believe he has only played 30 games given his consistency as a 20-year-old who is averaging 87.3 over his career (minus injury impacted games).
Witherden seems primed to be a 3rd season breakout for SC coaches this year after averaging 87.4 last year (minus injury impacted game). He averaged 83.8 between rounds 1 to 12 and then increased that by 5.9% (2nd highest amongst all premium defenders) to 92.6 post-bye including three 100+ games with a high of 131.
Priced at ~83.6, Witherden’s 2018 post-bye average is 10.7% higher than what he is valued at (highest amongst all premium defenders). Considering Witherden is the Lions first choice kick-in, taking 126 last season, of which he played-on 52 times, the new rules will only help boost his average even further.
If you are banking on a breakout player to enter the top 6 defenders look no further.
Honourable Mentions
|
|
2018 post-bye avg |
vs 2019 Price |
vs 2018 avg |
|
Jeremy Howe |
99.8 |
9.2% |
3.0% |
|
Jake Lloyd |
117.8 |
5.4% |
5.2% |
|
Zach Tuohy |
88.3 |
4.3% |
3.9% |
|
Steven May |
88.0 |
7.9% |
7.7% |
Lachie Whitfield
This former #1 pick (2012) oozes class and due to his silky skills and strong decision making, he has his team mates looking for him to move the ball forward with some purpose and accuracy. This has led the GWS star to finish 2018 ranked 2nd in uncontested possessions, 3rd in total kicks, 3rd in total marks & 3rd in metres gained amongst a few of the statistical accolades across the AFL in what was a true breakout season for this star on the rise.
Whitfield had his best SC season averaging 99.9 and playing all 22 games, and if you include his two finals games that average increases to 102.7. He averaged 97.7 between rounds 1 to 12 and 102.5 between rounds 14-23 and if you include the finals his post-bye average was a very healthy 107.8. 2018 included 13 scores of 100+ and only 2 scores below 80.
Priced at ~99.7, Whitfield’s 2018 post-bye average (including finals) is 8.2% higher than what he is priced at (3rd highest amongst all premium defenders) while his post-bye average (including finals) is 5.2% above his 2018 average (4th highest amongst all premium defenders).
Lock him in. Now.
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Another great expose from Crazy Uncle Jester’s Spontaneous Combustion.
Did’nt realise that Lloyd’s price had value.. now thinking I should start with him rather than upgrade to him.. but I’m planning to start both Whitfield and Witherden and probably Williams which means the R14 bye becomes a problem.. might stick to my original plan and bring Lloyd in for R15.
Cheers Lazza!
Great article Sauce, I’ve got one for you.
Riddle me this.
Who’s are former top 10 pick
Playing in his 6th season
Averaged over 100 in his last 4 games( not including finals)
Defender under 450k.
Hasn’t been mentioned on this site to date. Worth a look?
Christian Salem?!
Post-bye average: 85.0
Post-bye average vs price: +3.8%
Post-bye average vs 2018 avg: +3.0%
Definitely worth a look.
Thanks Hot Sauce.
Some very compelling numbers.
Whitfield has never left my team from day one. I personally think he and Lloyd are the only two defenders capable of averaging 110+ this season. Sicily has the skill to join these two. I fear his youth and hot head may still force him to put up a few sub par performances.(-80)
This should allow me to get him in a bit cheaper as an upgrade target.
I really like Witherden as a breakout, but I’m feeling this year maybe a year too early. With Rich and Hodgey still hanging around and Andrews role still undefined I just think its too bigger risk to start him.He also has that nasty R13 bye. I will be keeping a close on him and may look at him as an upgrade target post byes.
Thanks again.
Looking forward to the next instalment of “Back to the Future”.
Cheers Freo Tragic!
I agree with you on Whitfield & Lloyd being the only “uber” premium defenders this year. If you don’t start with them, I feel you’ll be bringing them in at some point!
Yeah cheers.
I have plans to start both. The only thing stopping me starting lloyd would be a last minute panic to try to get Gawn in instead of Goldie.
In this case I would probably take a punt on Ryan.
I feel much safer with lloyd and Goldie at this stage.
Thanks for all your input so far. I’m really looking forward to your next instalment. 🙂
Thanks Hot Sauce, great write-up, looking forward to the next installment!
I’d always strongly considered Lloyd to start, but he’s firmly locked in now that:
a) I’m aware he’s actually a value pick for his average
and
b) I’m pretty sure I read somewhere (I just spent 20 minutes looking for the article to no avail!) that if the new kick-in rules were applied to last season, it would have resulted in something like an extra 150 kicks for Lloyd!!! That’s close to an extra 7 kicks a game on top of his already huge average.
Second biggest lock in my team behind Danger.
Here’s an article posted yesterday about AFL fantasy https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-02-05/who-will-get-a-fantasy-scoring-boost-thanks-to-new-rules
It was an increase in 7.3 points per game, not kicks. He had 151 total kicks last year and played on 29% of the time.
That is still a healthy boost in points though. Will be interesting though to see how the new rules impact the speed of play and if they still wait for a designated kicker or the closet player grabs it and runs on.
See, this is why I need to find the articles before I go on making silly claims! Thanks for the clarification Hutta!
I think most teams will probably look for a designated long kick to kick in. I don’t think Lloyd has that much penetration in his kick so it will be interesting to see if they still use him.
Cheers Ben!
Lloyd is becoming harder & harder to pass up.
No love for Wayne Milera?
Post-bye average: 91.9
Last 7 games average: 95.4
Post-bye average vs price: +15.2%
Post-bye average vs 2018 avg: +15.2%
Definitely worth a look.
I normally would agree, but Smith coming back may affect his scoring. He’s set for a breakout year this year, just maybe not in Supercoach.
think he’ll be playing midfield soon enough!
You haven’t waited for the next installment 😉
Sorry I thought we were done on DEFs. Doh!
Great stuff Hot Sauce. Definitely on Lloyd and Whitfield train.
However, I don’t get the numbers/discrepancies between %+/- vs 2018 avg. and 2019 price. They should be exactly the same, given that the 2019 price is a fixed numerical representation of a player’s 2018 average (unless that player played 7 or less games, or none at all in 2018).
If you multiply a player’s 2018 ave. by 5428.54063347816 (give or take 😉 )
you will get their 2019 price to the nearest $100 (as SC round them to this). Given all these players played more than 7 games in 2018, I’m confused which numbers are the right ones, or how you’ve calculated them.
Would love to know the maths! Saddo that I am
Cheers allsaints!
The difference comes from removing injury impacted games as well as including 2018 finals games.
Hope that clears it up 🙂
Thanks for clearing that up HS.
Love it. Keep ‘em coming 🙂
Very nice Schwarz but JJ’s form is more related to him being softer than the tooth-fairy’s farts than anything else. Belt him a couple of times in the first quarter and he’ll stay away for the whole game
You have been hard enough on the afl field to belt him i presume!
This has Jack Steele written all over it.
Averaged 112 post-bye, 116.4 in last seven, 126.75 in last four. Priced at a 94.4 average.
Top ten in tackles per game the past two years, and reports come out today that he has done ZERO tagging work this offseason as he looks to become a “two-way midfielder” (artcile – http://www.saints.com.au/news/2019-02-06/steele-sharpens-attacking-focus?fbclid=IwAR2FOwIUEpSmd4e8xXbqCXxjn_-HfFvLaolxojmv2FoTGUuhU_hzMMFGDxc)
Hot Sauce and Thommo are all over it. He hasn’t got to to the MIDs yet.
And besides, keep your voice down. These walls have ears!! 🙂
In 0% of teams as it stands, so it will take more than my kicking and screaming to change it, but he is my M5. Cripps, Fyfe, Crouch, Zorko, Steele
This time of year is great, we’re polls apart! My kids look like this ATM. McCrae, JKelly, Neale, Yeo, Martin