(Written & Created By Hot Sauce)
In Part Two of Back To The Future, the Mid-Priced Defenders are now under the microscope. A reminder that a 2018 post-bye average is the basis for the discussion, which eliminates other strong mid-price defender selections such as Zac Williams, Brodie Smith, Dylan Roberton, Grant Birchall & Hamish Hartlett to name a few. It also excludes the likes of Aaron Francis who only played at the very end of last season.
Mid-Price Defenders
Wayne Milera (Adel, $433,100)
Milera stormed into SC relevance in 2018 due to his move from crafty forward to rebounding defender. Some of the best highlights for Crows fans was seeing Milera taking the game on and streaming forward with both flair and potency. Despite not being a traditional Mid-Pricer given his almost premium price tag, he makes this list and needs to be considered.
Milera averaged an eye-catching 91.9 after his bye which was 11.1% greater than his 2018 (minus injury impacted games) of 82.7. Given he is only priced at ~79.8 (15.2% below his post-bye average) he presents incredible value for coaches willing to taking a punt on the Crows youngster.
The risks come with the return of Brodie Smith and whether you believe that pushes Milera to the background within a full-strength Adelaide outfit. The flipside could be that opposition teams lose sight of Milera with their energy focused on slowing down the likes of Smith and Rory Laird. Milera could also push up to the wing, which could further increase his SC relevance in 2019.
Will be a certain POD, if you are brave enough to select him at that price.
Andrew McGrath (Ess, $384,300)
Besides Alex Witherden, Andrew McGrath looks set to be the best 3rd year breakout option available for us Coaches down back. The 2017 NAB AFL Rising Star winner followed up his impressive rookie season with another solid season moving further up the ground onto the wing and through the midfield.
Despite the improving midfield depth at Essendon, McGrath has continuously been promoted within the club to break into the main midfield group where the Dons would look to benefit from his pace, skills and excellent decision making.
McGrath is priced at 70.6 but was able to score at 4.7% greater than that after his bye last season averaging 74.1 between rounds 14 to 23. Despite three consecutive poor games (rounds 18 to 20) the Bombers coaching staff continued to place their faith in the former #1 Pick which was rewarded with a score of 110 in Rd 21 and an overall solid end to his 2018 season.
McGrath’s consistent start to his playing career coupled with his enormous talent and strong pre-season bodes well for those coaches who are willing to back him in, which seems to be increasing by the day as reports from Tullamarine stream in.
It’s only a matter of time until the kid takes the leap, but will it be this year?
Honourable Mentions
|
|
2018 post-bye avg |
vs 2019 Price |
vs 2018 avg |
|
Houli |
80.3 |
9.1% |
1.0% |
|
Saad |
82.8 |
10.3% |
5.7% |
|
Burton |
70.9 |
7.9% |
7.3% |
|
Rampe |
83.1 |
6.8% |
7.2% |
Nic Newman (Car, $394,100)
If given the opportunity, Nic Newman provides plenty of potential for Coaches with his SC friendly game-style. Especially in a Carlton team screaming out for some skilled defenders to assist veteran Simmo with Docherty cruelled by injuries once again. Despite struggling for consistent games in a deep Sydney squad, Newman shouldn’t face as difficult a time breaking into this Carlton side.
Despite the strong Swans line-up, Newman was able to cement a spot in the Swans team from Round 17 onwards last year averaging an impressive 78.8 from then on, which is 8.6% higher than what he is priced at (~72.6) and 9.6% higher than his 2018 season average.
Considering Newman’s SC friendly game-style, greater job security and the fact the ball will spend some considerable amount of time in Carlton’s defence, Newman could be a potential steal at this price. An outside chance to finish as your D6, Newman is at the very least a good choice as a high-scoring stepping stone to a premium defender.
Shouldn’t disappoint if selected.
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Thanks HS. I like them all, but likely won’t be starting any. For me, the opportunities lie in waiting for unfortunate injuries to established midfielders that may offer increased MID-time for Milera and/or McGrath and hopefully a subsequent and significant increase in SC output.
Newman could be a nice POD but will have to wait for JLT and role before making a better informed decision. Burton the same.
Thanks again Hot Sauce. Great stuff. Keep ‘em coming!
Cheers allsaints!
great write up i see both Mcgrath and Newman breaking out but sadly not starting with them I’ve gone Williams route instead
Safer bet Nateo. Williams should have a great season.
I seem to recall Williams was scoring better in 2017 that whitfield so I’m keen to see how he goes this year.
I feel McGrath will be a player to boost his ave by 20-25 points soon. But not confident to select him yet, but at low ownership it’s not a big problem if he does. But keeping very close tabs on him, if he posts a 120 sometime soon I’m jumping straight on since his ceiling is around 110 so far.
I tend to agree with you Theoriginalforce – could be a great POD for those brave enough.
Hot Sauce,
Top write up again mate, just wanted to see what you, or any of the other coaches, might think of Aaron Francis (ESS), who you mentioned at the start of your article.
He did only play about five games last year, but managed an 80 avg (know it’s not a great sample size) and seems to be suited to SC re his high number of contested and intercept marks, along with a high disposal efficiency.
Could he be a worthwhile option for D4 if he plays a whole season? Has an awkward $350k price tag though.
Thanks again for the reviews, brilliant stuff.
Thanks Benchwarmers!
Aaron Francis could be a great buy but is very, very risky given his games track record to date.
Saying that, he looked brilliant in the few games played last year and is definitely part of the teams best 22 – form & injury permitting.
Right now, there a few more safer bets (players highlighted above plus Roberton, Williams, Smith & Hartlett) given his awkward price tag. A little too risky for mine.
Good luck!
Great write, Hot Sauce. I am not really sold on to the mid priced Defs this year so I am going 3+ Rookies. McGrath has the writings all over him: 3rd year, high pick , good preseason, some Mid time… I will wait and see post byes.. But McGrath I thing will add value
Could be a masterstroke Jeannot – especially with plenty of outstanding premium defs to choose from.
Is there enough rookie defenders to have 3 on the field and 2 on the bench for cash?
Good question Arzi, it’s likely but will have to wait til ast least the JLT series.