The good news – there’s plenty of value in this week’s midpricer list. Special mentions to Anthony Miles, Stefan Martin, Nick Naitanui and Jeremy McGovern, and also to former midpricers Lynden Dunn and David Zaharakis – they’re too expensive for me to do a write-up on but both are in exceptional form and have very high ceilings. Let me know if I’ve missed anyone.
Midpricer List ($200 > $500K)
Heath Shaw $468,700 av. 93.36 (last two scores 109 and 127) – With his breakeven of 40 going into round 13, Shaw rewarded those that brought him in with 109 and a pricerise of $31.1K. Could be a risk worth taking if you’re fighting for a place in your league finals. Depends on your bank account really – he’s still a nice price.
Paul Duffield $472,000 av. 87.00 (last two scores 130 and 102) – Duffield has now strung together three 100+ scores in a row. How he managed 102 with just 16 disposals, three marks and five tackles is a credit to him but also a worry for any would-be investors. If his efficiency dips in a game with those sort of numbers then you can expect a sub 70 score. Definitely a risk but again maybe one worth taking if your bank is scarce and are struggling in the bottom half of your league ladder.
Pearce Hanley $478,700 av. 94.20 (last two scores 133 and 119) – Hanley backed up his previous two good games with 28 disposals, nine marks and three tackles with a team-high score of 133 in Brisbane’s loss to GWS. Definitely someone to consider although his final four games for 2014 are against Adelaide, Collingwood, Fremantle and Geelong – definitely not as easy finish.
Shannon Hurn $484,100 av. 91.88 (last two scores 75 and 157) – Hurn shared honours with Brendon Goddard for highest SC score in round 13. He had 26 disposals, most of them kicks of course, and 12 marks including plenty from opposition kicks. I can’t find room for Hurn in my team but he does have a high ceiling as shown on the weekend and will consistently score over 80 points even when he doesn’t find much of the ball.
David Swallow $493,800 av. 103.92 (last two scores 59 and 87) – admittedly his scores have been a bit on the lower end the last two rounds but you know he’ll bounce back. Most of us would already have Swallow in our backline but for those that don’t he should prove a worthy investment. With a breakeven of 148 it could also be worth waiting another week.
Other Defenders to consider: Grant Birchall, Rhys Shaw, Shaun Burgoyne, Andrew Mackie
*Anthony Miles $246,000 av. 95.50 (last two scores 83 and 108) – exceptional value, a mature body and can find the ball as proven on the weekend with 30 disposals. He also had four tackles with a whopping five frees for and none against. He’ll be making way into my team as a high scoring emergency.
Dane Zorko FWD/MID $443,500 – see FWD write-up
Andrew Swallow $476,500 av. 81.60 (last two scores 86 and 109) – Swallow just missed his breakeven of 90 and remains under $480K. Another player to consider if your bank balance is low and you need to take some risks. Final four games against GWS, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide and Melbourne.
Dane Swan – $478,600 av. 93.55 (last two scores 76 and 89) – To be honest, I don’t think Swanny deserves a write-up based on his last five scores. But he is Dane Swan, and he can bang out massive scores, and he is under $480K. Poor current form though.
Ryan Griffen $487,300 av. 90.91 (last two scores 94 and 94) – I thought Griffen’s last two games deserved higher SC scores based on his impact on the game but perhaps his efficiency was down. I feel like he’s on the verge of some very high scoring like last year. Another player with a high ceiling that could be worth a punt depending on your league position.
*Stefan Martin RUCK/FWD $242,700 av. 107 (last two scores 112 and 102) – Stefan Martin has now had two 100+ scores against two of the best rucks in the comp. It doesn’t get any easier though with upcoming games against Sandi and Goldstein. For me, he’s a god-send as I have a forward cow ready to cash in, along with and Fraser Thurlow (RUCK/FWD) and Currie not playing. I will now have a high scoring emergency in the rucks should the need arise and a very handy sixth forward.
*Nick Naitanui $474,900 av. 83.75 (last two scores 116 and 142) – Naitanui is in exceptional form and has shrugged off any early season niggles. I think he will finish the season with the highest Ruck average from rounds 11-23. I can’t find room for him due to Sandi and Mummy doing a great job in my ruck spots but he’s definitely worth considering if you have an underperformer or ripe cash cow in your R2 spot.
Other Rucks to consider: Patrick Ryder
*Jeremy McGovern $213,200.00 av. 92.00 (last two scores 85 and 146) – best forward cash cow there is. If you have an obvious trade-out player in your forward-line then get this guy into your team. I pulled the trigger prior to round 13 in an attempt to beat a colleague who sat atop our league ladder (I needed a differentiator and got rid of Higgins who my opponent had) and McGovern won me the game with a 100 point advantage. Did I know he was going to get 146? No – I’m not magic. Is he still worth bringing into your team at just over $200K? Absolutely.
*Stefan Martin RUCK/FWD $242,700 – see Ruck write-up
Chad Wingard $390,500 av. 82.09 (last two scores 112 and 92) – Wingard has a breakeven of just 29 points care of an injury affected round 11 score of 10. Even though he’s a game-breaker his ceiling isn’t all that tall with a high score of just 112 for the year. Still a fantastic price and the first time he’s dipped below $400K.
Dane Zorko FWD/MID $443,500 av. 92.33 (last two scores 81 and 110) – given Brisbane’s overall performance on the weekend against GWS, it’s no surprise Zorko’s scoring dropped off slightly from Brisbane’s two previous wins. With just nine disposals at least he scored 80+ (three goals in there as well). For me, he’s too risky if he’s going to play a lot of time as a small forward, a position notorious for inconsistent SC scores.
Travis Cloke $448,100 (last two scores 86 and 110) – very similar to Hawkins with three good scores out of four and a putrid 27 in there as well. I’m not a fan of key forwards (unless they get up the ground a fair bit like Franklin). If you got him at $351,200 prior to round 11 then he’s got you some great scores and increased nearly $100K. I wouldn’t draft him at his current price though.
Tom Hawkins $450,800 av. 86.75 (last two scores 127 and 117) – In the last four weeks Hawkins has offered three very high scores (117, 127 and 139). Unfortunately, like a lot of big key forward’s there was also a score of 52 in there. Personally, I prefer consistency but he’s a good price and has a very high ceiling.
Luke Dahlhaus $456,800 av. 96.73 (last two scores 68 and 109) – With Dahlhaus in your team you need to be prepared for a roller coaster ride. I already have him and he will remain in Badger’s team for the year but I’m not sure I’d be drafting him in at this stage. High ceiling, good price, bit inconsistent.
*Lance Franklin $483,200 av. 88.55 (last two scores 146 and 71) – Franklin bounced back in a big way with his second five-goal performance and a brilliant second half against Port Adelaide. I feel somewhat better about my choice to trade Roughie last round (yep, when he scored 180+). With his confidence sky-rocketing and Sydney playing exceptionally well I’d back Franklin to be the highest scoring forward for the second half of 2014.
Other Forwards to consider: Matthew Pavlich, Ben McGlynn, Josh J Kennedy, Jeremy Cameron (as cash cow only), Maverick Weller (as cash cow only).
BON VOYAGE former Midpricer:
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