Breaking Even – Rd3

Written by Schwarzwalder on April 1 2019

A popular feature at SCT, we’ve shortlisted the most SC-relevant players for you as a handy guide (mainly those owned by 3% of teams or more, with a few exceptions).

For the Supercoach newbies out there, the Breakeven is the score needed by each player to hold his price.  If they score above that Breakeven value, their $$ value will rise.  If they score below that Breakeven point, they will lose value.  Sorry if I’ve overlooked something.  Be sure to let me know in the Comments below and I’ll update it as soon as I can.  If you have any questions about Breakevens, don’t hesitate to ask in the Forum and I’m sure our friendly SCT Community will help out.

**I can’t promise the BreakEvens every Monday at 5am, but I’ll do my best!**

 

LAST NAME, First Name (TEAM) (Price, Average): BE

All MID DPPs are listed under def/fwd/ruck (as appropriate)

DEF-FWD DPPs are listed as defs

RUCK DPPs are listed as rucks

 

 

PREMIUM DEFENDERS (>$500K)

WHITFIELD, Lachie (GWS)($542 100, 114): 86

CRISP, Jack (COL)($519 900, 103): 96

LLOYD, Jake (SYD)($608 200, 128): 98

HURN, Shannon (WCE)($523 400, 99): 107

LAIRD, Rory (ADE) ($587 600, 96 ): 150

SICILY, James (HAW)($570 400, 91): 150

SIMPSON, Kade (CAR) ($570 300, 78): 176

 

 

MIDPRICE DEFENDERS ($300K-$500K)

NEWMAN, Nic (CAR)($394 100, 108): 13

SMITH, Brodie (ADE)($332 500, 89): 15

McGOVERN, Jeremy (WCE)($483 100, 111): 59

WILLIAMS, Zac (GWS)($407 800, 89): 60

FRANCIS, Aaron (ESS)($350 900, 65): 75

McGRATH, Andrew (ESS)(DEF/MID)($384 300, 73):78

WITHERDEN, Alex (BRL)($455 000, 87): 90

MILLS, Callum (SYD)($428 900, 64): 121

SHAW, Heath (GWS) ($492 400, 73): 141

 

 

BUDGET / ROOKIE DEFENDERS (<$300K, * = two games played)

DUURSMA, Xavier * (PTA)(DEF/MID)($130 800, 73): -69

JOYCE, Darragh * (STK)($123 900, 67): -62

CLARK, Jordan* (GEE)($144 300,68 ): -51

SCRIMSHAW, Jack * (HAW)($149 800, 68): -48

ROZEE, Connor *(PTA)(DEF/FWD)($189 300, 76): -42

WILKIE, Callum *(STK)($124 900, 54): -36

MOORE, Darcy* (COL)(DEF/FWD)($239 400, 85): -31

BURGESS, Christopher * (GCS)(DEF/FWD)($123 900, 45): -17

MCKAY, Ben * (NTH)($123 900, 43): -13

COLLINS, Sam (GCS)($188 900, 57): -3

 

 

PREMIUM MIDFIELDERS ($500K+)

SLOANE, Rory (ADE)($524 300, 130): 44

BONTEMPELLI, Marcus (WBD) ($564 600, 128): 73

O’MEARA, Jaeger (HAW)($503 200, 105): 83

NEALE, Lachie (BRL) ($607 300, 134): 85

CROUCH, Matt (ADE)($551 300, 117): 86

FYFE, Nat (FRE) ($618 100, 136): 88

BRAYSHAW, Angus (MEL)($526 900, 107): 93

PENDLEBURY, Scott (COL) ($562 000, 115): 97

TRELOAR, Adam (COL)($594 200, 119): 108

ZORKO, Dayne (BRL) ($512 100, 94): 114

BEAMS, Dayne (COL)($557 600, 101): 121

SELWOOD, Joel (GEE) ($570 500, 103): 125

CRIPPS, Patrick (CAR) ($648 200, 121): 134

CONIGLIO, Stephen (GWS) ($588 600, 103):135

MACRAE, Jack (WBD)($689 700, 130): 141

MERRETT, Zach (ESS)($544 800, 88): 141

OLIVER, Clayton (MEL) ($622 600, 106): 149

MARTIN, Dustin (RIC) ($563 800, 88): 152

SIDEBOTTOM, Steele (COL)($551 700, 77): 167

YEO, Elliot(WCE)($585 500, 78): 185

 

 

MIDPRICE MIDFIELDERS ($300K – $500K)

LIBERATORE, Tom (WBD)($300 400, 102): -29

ROCKLIFF, Tom (PTA) ($405 900, 127): -19

SHEED, Dom (WCE)($394 100, 122): -15

MILES, Anthony (GCS)($342 000, 85): 28

CROUCH, Brad (ADE)($418 000, 98): 47

BRAYSHAW, Andrew (FRE)($328 600, 69): 54

SHIEL, Dylan (ESS)($487 000, 109): 66

TARANTO, Tim (GWS)($481 600, 95): 89

 

 

BUDGET/ ROOKIE MIDFIELDERS (<$300K, * = two games played)

CONSTABLE, Charlie* (GEE)($123 900, 85): -97

DAVIES-UNIACKE, Luke *(NTH)($197 500, 99): -83

BUTTERS, Zac * (PTA)($157 800, 78): -63

SCOTT, Bailey *(NTH)($117 300, 64): -59

ATKINS, Tom * (GEE)($112 900, 56): -47

COUSINS, James* (HAW)($219 900, 82): -36

GIBBONS, Michael * (CAR)($102 400, 46): -32

WALSH, Sam * (CAR)($207 300, 76): -31

JONES, Chayce * (ADE)($171 300, 49): 2

SMITH, Bailey * (WBD)($180 300, 50): 6

 

 

RUCKS

NANKERVIS, Toby (RIC)($533 000, 103): 104

WITTS, Jarrod (GCS)($480 900, 88): 104

JACOBS, Sam (ADE)($455 700, 67): 130

MARTIN, Stefan (BRL) ($573 700, 95): 143

GOLDSTEIN, Todd (NTH)($548 000, 84): 150

GRUNDY, Brodie (COL)($708 200, 109): 193

GAWN, Max (MEL) ($692 100, 102): 198

 

 

PREMIUM FORWARDS (>$500K)

KELLY, Tim (GEE)(FWD/MID)($505 800, 109): 76

GUNSTON, Jack (HAW)($521 400, 107): 89

GRAY, Robbie (PTA)(FWD/MID) ($525 500, 99): 108

McLEAN, Toby (WBD)(FWD/MID)($514 000, 94): 111

WESTHOFF, Justin (PTA)(FWD/RUCK)($549 500, 98): 123

DUNKLEY, Josh (WBD)(FWD/MID)($516 300, 87): 126

DANGERFIELD, Patrick (GEE)(FWD/MID)($660 500, 126): 132

MENEGOLA, Sam (GEE)($543 100, 86): 144

SMITH, Devon (ESS)(FWD/MID)($531 300, 78): 153

HEENEY, Isaac (SYD)(FWD/MID) ($529 200, 76): 155

FRANKLIN, Lance (SYD)($543 500, 66): 183

MUNDY, David (FRE)(FWD/MID) ($520 900, 54): 194

 

 

MIDPRICED FORWARDS $300K– $500K

LYCETT, Scott (PTA)(FWD/RUCK)($441 600, 118): 20

WORPEL, James (HAW)(FWD/MID)($395 700, 101): 28

BOAK, Travis (PTA)(FWD/MID) ($478 000, 121): 35

DAHLHAUS, Luke (GEE)(FWD/MID)($418 300, 104): 36

BILLINGS, Jack (STK)($437 600, 86): 82

LOBB, Rory (FRE)(FWD/RÛCK)($411 600, 77): 86

HIGGINS, Jack (RIC)($392 700, 70): 88

VARDY, Nathan (WCE)(FWD/RUCK)($306 400, 44): 91

DARLING, Jack (WCE)($471 700, 83): 109

PETRACCA, Christian (MEL)(FWD/MID)($442 600, 73): 112

DE GOEY, Jordan (COL)($476 400, 71): 135

CURNOW, Charlie (CAR) ($420 400, 26): 193

 

 

BUDGET / ROOKIE FORWARDS (<$300K, * = two games played)

DREW, Willem* (PTA)(FWD/MID)($123 900, 97): -121

PARKER, Matthew * (STK)($117 300, 88): -108

MIERS, Gryan * (GEE)($123 900, 60): -48

SETTERFIELD, Will *(CAR)(FWD/MID)($144 900, 60): -35

McCARTHY, Lincoln * (BRL)($247 500, 85): -26

PETRUCELLE, Jack * (WCE)($123 900, 50): -28

BLAKEY, Nick * (SYD)($166 800, 41): 15

ELLIOTT, Jamie* (COL)($280 300, 62): 39

10
0


Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom

39 thoughts on “Breaking Even – Rd3”

  1. On a similar theme to this and I don’t know if there’s any plans afoot to post something on this line, but i’d love to see a thread on corrective trades. We’re all likely to make one or two so a summary of who you simply must have for round 3 could be super useful.

    18

    0
    1. Seconding this.

      Would also love to know where the line is for what constitutes a corrective trade. Im in a strange situation for once where all my rookies and midpricers have fired and the only real underperforming premium is Heeney. I dont need to make any of the normal corrective trades, does that maybe mean I have room for a luxury corrective trade?

      10

      1
      1. In the same boat. Not sure if I should trade Heeney or hold. Currently no other problems to fix….. give it a week and I’ll need all 30 trades to fix my side

        1

        0
      2. Thirded.
        I think this is the first time that I don’t need to make any corrective trades going into rd3. Just about every team has the same rookies (I managed to dodge Balta) and they all seem to be firing. I do have Heeney and Zerrett, but I believe those two will come good before long.

        2

        0
        1. On that note is it worth going Petruccelle to M Parker? Since the only other trade I’d look at is Heeney for a T Kelly

          4

          2
  2. What were to happen to Collins Be if he scores around the 60 mark this week does his 20 odd go out of his cycle next week?

    8

    0
    1. Second string ruck with Kreuzer back in a week or two. Barring more injuries to Kreuzer, his JS is non-existent.

      If he was Zac Clarke priced, he’d be a solid bench option. At just shy of $280k he’s too expensive for the bench, and a horrible option for R2.

      8

      1
      1. That was a ridiculous and uneducated comment and to demonstrate why I will deal in facts NOT speculation, innuendo or personal opinion.

        Fact 1 He is currently the 9th ranked Ruck. Ahead of Goldy, Witts, TBC, Sinclair, Ryder, Jacobs, English, Lobb and Vardy all of whom are more expensive and have greater ownership.

        Fact 2 The season is only 2 weeks old but for 50% of the season he has scored better than Gawn and Grundy

        Fact 3 the $400,000 I saved by not getting Grundy to start enabled Sheed at M6, Libba at M7 and Greene at F5 (ok Greene was a bust so far)

        Fact 4 If I’d captained him instead of Gawn last week I’d now be ranked 4708 overall instead of 6969 and I’d be ranked 64th in the SCT group instead of 110

        Fact 5 he is only 27 years old which is the same age at which Grundy ‘Broke out’ and went from 60’s ave to 91

        Fact 6 He is the ONLY ruck with a negative breakeven

        Fact 7 Kreuzer has not been named as player in a starting team

        Fact 8 Probably the most important fact – supercoach is based on trading and price fluctuations not on starting teams

        5

        15
        1. Grundy was 23-24 last year?

          Also Kreuzer will take his spot in 2 weeks. Why are you always so angry David?

          13

          0
        2. Wowzers…

          He’s only playing because Kreuzer is not. Carlton have said Kreuzer was close to selection in round 2, and is expected to be available in round 3. The Northern Blues have a week off this week, so if the club wants Kreuzer to play any football at all, it’s seniors or nothing.

          Starting him was not a terrible idea – you saved money and upgraded some rookies to midpricers, or midpricers to better midpricers. In my view you’ve broken even with the midprice gamble – Greene probably needs to go, Phillips undoubtedly needs to go at some point, Sheed and Libba look good.

          Trading him in now – terrible idea. Costs a trade, is never going to be a season-long keeper, is too expensive, and has poor job security and therefore limited earning potential.

          Hope it works out for you (starting him), but anyone recommending others trade him in is just sabotaging someone else’s season.

          15

          0
        3. An astute starting selection perhaps, but his scoring is likely to dry up once Kreuzer comes back (which could be as early as this week), and that’s if he keeps his spot at all (he probably will for two or three weeks, but beyond that…?). I certainly wouldn’t advise anyone to bring him in at this point.

          0

          0
          1. Kreuzer wont play this week or next week, Curnow wont play for 4 weeks, if/when Kreuz comes back he’ll be 80% CHF until Curnow is back. Kreuzer is also old and incapable of running out a full game in todays footy even when fully fit.Phillips was a great starting selection as demonstrated by the facts (except age v Grundy which is crazy wrong) and a viable downgrade if you want to burn two trades to make money instead of lose money on a 400k+ ruck that isn’t Gawn or Grundy that you’ll have to trade at some stage soon; if you can’t afford Gawn Grundy you probably also can’t afford to lose 50k on a non-performer. Add the drop in value of the 400k+ to the increase in value of the 280k and it isn’t so bad. I wouldn’t do it but I wish that I’d started Phillips at R2 instead of Lobb

            1

            0
  3. I have both Heeney and Martin. Probably looking to drop Martin to fund my corrective trades.

    Thing is, both bringing in cash cows and bubble premos are just as important right now. I’m torn on whether to bring in two cows and go big in a week or two, or a mid-pricer and a cow.

    Thinking Darcy Moore is the biggest auto include for value/points. Then, who’s next?

    Rocky is the next in line, but behind him are LDU, Worpel, Sheed, Newman. Taking Rocky or Sheed with big mids to return is concerning, plus the injury risk on Rocky. Taking either means I give up picking a Cogs or potentially Oliver type instead in a week or two.

    What order do you see these players in terms of priority and would you take bulk cash gen or points now?

    1

    0
    1. At this stage I’ve gone

      Balta > Moore
      Martin > Rocky

      117.3k budget.

      Next week can take LDU if he’s still performing as he could still generate 150k from there. I have McGrath ready for the chop and his BE this week is same as his ave, so should be safe.

      2

      0
      1. If you pass on LDU this week, you pass on him permanently.

        He’s played 9 games to date, and 5 of those returned less than 40 points. No doubt he’s improved, but he’s still going to have quiet games as a young player, which will stunt his cash growth at times. He represents value at under $200k, but using a trade to bring him in at $260k or more, only to trade him out again for (most likely) under $400k? Wasteful.

        Of the three players (Rockliff, Moore, LDU), Moore is the most awkward. He’s unlikely to become a premo keeper (perhaps a handy D7/F7 swing), and is already priced at $240k. Rocky, if you bring him in, is for the season, but has a history of disappointing coaches. LDU is cheaper than Moore, and offers similar cash potential, but is unlikely to be a late season bench option.

        My view – pick two of the three. And in that scenario, it’s Rocky and Moore (as you’ve done) as the two players who have the potential to be in your side for the remainder of the year, while also making cash – covers both bases

        But if you’re going to bring in all three, leave Moore for next week. He’s got a game against WCE coming up, with Kennedy, Darling, Vardy and Hickey to contend with, so there’s a decent chance he struggles to play his intercept game and scores moderately, limiting his immediate price increase. LDU is up against an injury-ravaged Hawthorn, while Rocky takes on his old side and will probably have an axe to grind.

        6

        1
        1. Rockliff only scored 26 after half time due to the Setterfield tag and if you think that he wont be tagged again (by a better footballer than setterfield) you’re kidding yourself. He is also likely to lose midfield minutes or have a role change when Wines comes back, If you didn’t start him it’s crazy to get him.

          7

          2
          1. Its a fair comment, and I’m not touching him with my team looking healthy. He is a reasonable option for those in need of a player around that price though.

            Buyer beware for sure.

            2

            0
          2. Oh I’ve felt his burn many times before, believe me. But say he reaches 100 on the weekend that’s a near 60k increase – same as you’d get from the best cash cow this week.

            I honestly think the injection of Ports fantastic recruits as much as his body holding up is allowing him to go ham again, so Wines may not be the end of his scoring potential. Plus, then there’s another bloke worthy of a tag over him.

            He’s too valuable to go past at this stage. I’m taking the risk.

            4

            0
        2. @blueBalls I’d be missing value on LDU passing this week, but it’s also another week of sample size and a stronger indication of his potential output.

          Picking up a bloke at 250k who can possibly ave 85 and bring in 150k isn’t the worst trade you can make. Will have to strongly consider.

          As for Moore, he’s a stalwart in a strong side at rookie pricing, looking at a potential 80+ ave. I don’t see better value anywhere especially when you need to save those pennies for the inevitable uber premium drops to come in the next few weeks.

          3

          0
          1. These are good reasons to have started these players, not so sure they’re good reasons to sideways trade. You bring in LDU, you’ve gotta trade him out later. Crunch the numbers and work out if using two trades in that way is efficient or not.

            1

            0
  4. I am currently in a dilemma with D Mundy, after watching most of Freo’s 2 games he is spending a low percentage of time on ground and looks slow moving around the ground. I have doubts he will even average 80 for the season let alone 90 for which I would take.

    T/U – Keep the faith
    T/D – Corrective trade to T. Kelly

    1

    28
    1. If Brisbane keep it up, it could be the master-stroke of the season for you.

      History however suggests he’ll flop more often than not.

      3

      0
  5. Bit of a dilemma this week.

    I’ve got Heeney in my fwds and at this point I’d like him gone. i’ve also only got 8K in the bank.

    The options I’ve got are:
    Heeney – Kelly … this gives me enough to go from Smith (WB) to LDU
    Swap Heeney with Setterfield and then trade him for one of Rocky or Libba. Depending on which, I can then force other changes such as Smith to LDU or Balta to Moore or Elliott to Moore or Elliott to Kelly

    What’s my best option.

    0

    0

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *