Breaking Even – Rd4

Written by Schwarzwalder on April 8 2019

A popular feature at SCT, we’ve shortlisted the most SC-relevant players for you as a handy guide (mainly those owned by 3% of teams or more, with a few exceptions).

For the Supercoach newbies out there, the Breakeven is the score needed by each player to hold his price.  If they score above that Breakeven value, their $$ value will rise.  If they score below that Breakeven point, they will lose value.  Sorry if I’ve overlooked something.  Be sure to let me know in the Comments below and I’ll update it as soon as I can.  If you have any questions about Breakevens, don’t hesitate to ask in the Forum and I’m sure our friendly SCT Community will help out.


LAST NAME, First Name (TEAM) (Price, Average): BE

All MID DPPs are listed under def/fwd/ruck (as appropriate)

DEF-FWD DPPs are listed as defs

RUCK DPPs are listed as rucks




WHITFIELD, Lachie (GWS)($569 600, 127): 60

HURN, Shannon (WCE)($522 600, 102): 109

LLOYD, Jake (SYD)($620 400, 128): 111

CRISP, Jack (COL)($500 300, 87): 115

SICILY, James (HAW)($543 600, 92): 144

LAIRD, Rory (ADE) ($555 900, 92 ): 154

SIMPSON, Kade (CAR) ($517 100, 72): 170




SMITH, Brodie (ADE)($355 200, 82): 44

WILLIAMS, Zac (GWS)($424 900, 93): 54

FRANCIS, Aaron (ESS)($345 800, 65): 60

McGRATH, Andrew (ESS)(DEF/MID)($387 500, 78): 66

MILLS, Callum (SYD)($421 600, 79): 81

McGOVERN, Jeremy (WCE)($484 400, 96): 85

NEWMAN, Nic (CAR)($417 600, 95): 96

WITHERDEN, Alex (BRL)($454 300, 89): 98

SHAW, Heath (GWS) ($466 500, 77): 126



BUDGET / ROOKIE DEFENDERS (<$300K, * = two games played)

ROZEE, Connor (PTA)(DEF/FWD)($259 800, 89): -48

COLLINS, Sam (GCS)($225 200, 64): -33

DUURSMA, Xavier (PTA)(DEF/MID)($191 100, 70): -32

LOCKHART, Jay * (MEL)(DEF/MID)($102 400, 45): -29

SCRIMSHAW, Jack (HAW)($199 600, 66): -26

CLARK, Jordan (GEE)($196 100,67 ): -16

BURGESS, Christopher (GCS)(DEF/FWD)($151 000, 44): -16

MOORE, Darcy (COL)(DEF/FWD)($288 000, 83): -3

WILKIE, Callum (STK)($165 200, 54): 2

RIDLEY, Jordan * (ESS)($233 100, 68): 1

MCKAY, Ben (NTH)($134 700, 34): 27




NEALE, Lachie (BRL) ($646 300, 148): 63

BRAYSHAW, Angus (MEL)($531 900, 107): 81

MERRETT, Zach (ESS)($533 400, 98): 86

O’MEARA, Jaeger (HAW)($502 800, 98): 106

SLOANE, Rory (ADE)($550 700, 122): 112

CRIPPS, Patrick (CAR) ($656 300, 133): 113

OLIVER, Clayton (MEL) ($596 000, 102): 114

SIDEBOTTOM, Steele (COL)($533 900, 95): 116

CROUCH, Matt (ADE)($564 200, 118): 117

PENDLEBURY, Scott (COL) ($548 700, 100): 118

TRELOAR, Adam (COL)($582 300, 108): 121

ZORKO, Dayne (BRL) ($514 400, 98): 122

BONTEMPELLI, Marcus (WBD) ($585 700, 126): 123

BEAMS, Dayne (COL)($541 000, 97): 125

MACRAE, Jack (WBD)($686 300, 133): 138

SELWOOD, Joel (GEE) ($532 900, 84): 159

YEO, Elliot(WCE)($538 600, 80): 160

FYFE, Nat (FRE) ($609 400, 111): 169

MARTIN, Dustin (RIC) ($520 400, 78): 180

CONIGLIO, Stephen (GWS) ($571 500, 103): 182




LIBERATORE, Tom (WBD)($379 600, 118): -55

CROUCH, Brad (ADE)($446 400, 103): 45

MILES, Anthony (GCS)($359 000, 80): 67

BRAYSHAW, Andrew (FRE)($331 700, 67): 70

SHIEL, Dylan (ESS)($497 100, 103): 84

TARANTO, Tim (GWS)($490 100, 101): 98

ROCKLIFF, Tom (PTA) ($429 000, 97): 100



BUDGET/ ROOKIE MIDFIELDERS (<$300K, * = two games played)

 CONSTABLE, Charlie (GEE)($211 600, 89): -59

WAGNER, Corey * (MEL)($123 900, 63): -53

WALSH, Sam (CAR)($270 700, 88): -36

BUTTERS, Zac (PTA)($217 700, 75): -31

DAVIES-UNIACKE, Luke (NTH)($263 100, 87): -27

SPARROW, Tom * (MEL)($117 300, 48): -27

JONES, Chayce (ADE)($188 000, 46): 26

SMITH, Bailey (WBD)($216 200, 62): -26

ATKINS, Tom (GEE)($148 200, 48): -1

GIBBONS, Michael (CAR)($123 900, 36): 0

COUSINS, James (HAW)($263 400, 75): 1

SCOTT, Bailey (NTH)($165 000, 58): 25




PHILLIPS, Andrew * (CAR)($278 800, 89): -13

WITTS, Jarrod (GCS)($463 900, 82): 115

MARTIN, Stefan (BRL) ($546 100, 92): 127

GRUNDY, Brodie (COL)($678 300, 117): 130

GOLDSTEIN, Todd (NTH)($529 900, 94): 132

JACOBS, Sam (ADE)($455 700, 67): 134

NANKERVIS, Toby (RIC)($523 800, 98): 142

GAWN, Max (MEL) ($657 000, 110): 144




BOAK, Travis (PTA)(FWD/MID) ($521 600, 126): 48

KELLY, Tim (GEE)(FWD/MID)($517 700, 108): 86

HEENEY, Isaac (SYD)(FWD/MID) ($519 200, 96): 101

DANGERFIELD, Patrick (GEE)(FWD/MID)($656 300, 126): 104

GRAY, Robbie (PTA)(FWD/MID) ($516 100, 96): 107

SMITH, Devon (ESS)(FWD/MID)($506 400, 86): 118

GUNSTON, Jack (HAW)($508 100, 92): 125

MENEGOLA, Sam (GEE)($528 100, 95): 126

WESTHOFF, Justin (PTA)(FWD/RUCK)($509 900, 78): 214




LYCETT, Scott (PTA)(FWD/RUCK)($452 700, 95): 50

DAHLHAUS, Luke (GEE)(FWD/MID)($448 000, 104): 53

VARDY, Nathan (WCE)(FWD/RUCK)($282 900, 43): 61

WORPEL, James (HAW)(FWD/MID)($421 000, 96): 69

BILLINGS, Jack (STK)($447 800, 93): 71

DE GOEY, Jordan (COL)($464 700, 85): 78

LOBB, Rory (FRE)(FWD/RÛCK)($410 200, 80): 84

PETRACCA, Christian (MEL)(FWD/MID)($424 900, 74): 91

HIGGINS, Jack (RIC)($389 100, 74): 100

DARLING, Jack (WCE)($443 700, 72): 121

DUNKLEY, Josh (WBD)(FWD/MID)($494 000, 85):135

MUNDY, David (FRE)(FWD/MID) ($478 500, 71): 142

McLEAN, Toby (WBD)(FWD/MID)($484 200, 79): 144

FRANKLIN, Lance (SYD)($486 600, 64): 148

CURNOW, Charlie (CAR) ($420 400, 26): 196



BUDGET / ROOKIE FORWARDS (<$300K, * = two games played)

MIERS, Gryan (GEE)($176 100, 63): -48

PARKER, Matthew (STK)($186 500, 74): -26

PETRUCELLE, Jack (WCE)($162 200, 53): -19

DREW, Willem (PTA)(FWD/MID)($194 000, 76): -12

McCARTHY, Lincoln (BRL)($296 700, 85): 5

BLAKEY, Nick (SYD)($187 000, 48): 13

SETTERFIELD, Will (CAR)(FWD/MID)($176 700, 52): 17

ELLIOTT, Jamie (COL)($282 600, 57): 80


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48 thoughts on “Breaking Even – Rd4”

  1. What does history say about players with a sickening concussion like Fyfe and Rocky copped this weekend?

    Thinking Merrett last year which effected him badly, or even Jordan Lewis that time out cold which is forever etched in my mind.

    I’m not sure I can keep either of them tbh. Really concerned for them.


    1. I’ve had Merrett, Heeney, Nick Roo, Brodie Smith and Stevie J before and all of them have fallen away badly post-concussion. Others may think differently, but I would 100% trade Fyfe.


  2. How can you keep Rowan Marshall out of the conversation?

    114 and 111 SC for $341,100, BE -24.

    40 HO and 16 possies against Freo. Hard to see him loosing his spot even once Longer comes back.


    1. Averaged 63 in 12 games last year. He may not lose his spot but zero chance he’ll be sole ruck for long enough to make enough $ for it to be worth two trades (one to get him in, one to U/G).


    2. Have to agree with the Saints supporters, but I’d wait to see how Longer pulls up, or if he’s then named.
      Structurally I wouldn’t change it. Acres pinched hit a bit this week with Wilkie occupied down back against Freo’s 15 tall FWDs! If the Saints had kicked straight in the third yesterday, they would likely have won by four goals. There’s a lot to like.

      Thommo and I both talked about Marshall a bit in the pre-season. He has a huge tank (if you watched yesterday you’d have seen he was everywhere!). For me his JS is good, but his role is still in question. If Longer isn’t named this week (and I hope he isn’t as a Saints supporter), it’s a risk that might be worth taking. But it is that. A risk. You kind of need Longer to not be named for at least three weeks for it to be truly worth it and none of us can predict that!


  3. More than 1200 people have already traded Mumford into their sides in the last 12 hours.

    Does the Rockliff incident not ring any alarm bells for any of these people?


    1. Agreed BB.

      I was one of the points chasers last week with Rocky… not as experienced as some, but it’ll be the last time I do something silly/stupid like that with trades/cash. I now have a real concern with how to correct my side without using too many trades.


      1. Commiserations. All you’d have needed was another 2-3 weeks of big scores from Rocky and you’d be laughing. Even if he got injured, if he was up close to $600k at least you can just jump onto whichever premo around that mark is doing best.

        There’s some lessons I’ve learnt over the last few years, and I’m trying hard to follow them.

        Check 1: Do I need to trade anyone? Action accordingly.
        Check 2: Can I make significant money through a trade? Crunch the numbers.
        Check 3: Is the likely reward worth the risk? Best case vs. worst case vs. somewhere in the middle.

        Check 2 is super important at the start of the season, because the sooner you can make bank the sooner you can upgrade your team.

        Check 3 needs some context applied. High risk high reward trades should be avoided in the first half of the season, because there’s more time for them to backfire (ie. Rocky, Mumford). Late in the season, if you have trades up your sleeve, they can be the difference between making/missing and winning/losing league finals, and have the potential to catapult you past the top players on the leaderboard.


        1. Strong logic there, BB. I’ll certainly be taking that onboard for future.

          I went into the decision knowing the risk, but thinking it was calculated, and believing I could get to the byes and straight-swap Rocky out for an Uber-Premo. AllSaints (amongst others) cautioned against it, and of course… I didn’t listen to the advice. Definitely not one of my best decisions. And, I feel pretty foolish.

          Early indications are that Rocky is going to play against a depleted Richmond midfield. I’m definitely going hold. Hope he bounces back quickly. Stay the course on my initial plan through to at least the byes.

          But, more importantly I’m going to be very pragmatic about my choices from here on out, and take on-board the communities advice when I ask for it.

          Thanks for reading BB, AllSaints, and others.


          1. Your process for bringing in Rockliff was fine, he didn’t suffer a calf or hamstring or shoulder which is where his risk lies. If you feel upset about not predicting a concussion then you’re being too hard on yourself. All the reasons why Rocky was a reasonable pick still exist.


          2. As per Gold’s reply, the incident was one that couldn’t really be predicted. Head knocks and concussions don’t really care about injury history. And the timing was the worst it could possibly be. I must say though, there’s a bit of Murphy’s Law about players like Rockliff.

            If Rocky is named, you should be fine to keep him. As you alluded, Richmond are finally coming back to the pack as far as injuries go (and maybe are copping a harsher knock by way of karma), so surely Port don’t risk Rockliff unless he’s 100% right to go. They should win with or without him.

            Plan as though he’s going to be a late out, and watch the final teams announcement around 3:30pm on Saturday. It’s a bit of an awkward time slot, with a few suitable replacements having already played. Guys like Sheed and Brad Crouch might be worth having in the back of your mind in case you want to pull the trigger on a trade.


    2. wouldn’t go near him with yours, BlueBalls.

      I know a lot of people started with this Mumford strategy, but it’s fraught with season-ending consequences! Good luck to ’em all!


  4. I’ve noticed a trend where premiums hit with a concussion, score very well the next week, however they then stagnate and average around 15 points less than usual for 4-6 weeks. In this case is it worth offloading fyfe?


    1. It’s a huge headache with Fyfe. It’s almost impossible to judge, because the deciding factor is how he’ll go for the remainder of the season. If it was Round 20, you were in your league finals or in the top 200 and chasing the big prize, you’d trade him in a heartbeat. But if he has a week off, then a low score in round 5, then starts churning out 120s again, keeping him is the right move.

      Priced above $600k, the aggressive move is to trade him to Neale/Kelly/Macrae/Bont/etc.

      If you haven’t made any other trades yet and your team is otherwise pretty healthy, it might be a low risk, low reward move.

      But if you’ve used a few trades already, I think the conservative move is to hold him and hope he gets back to his best in a few weeks’ time.

      Glad it’s not something I have to worry about, because it’s a shit conundrum to be facing.


    2. If you’re going for overall and are within realistic striking distance of the leader (400pts or less), then I think it is. Especially if you have more than two MID rookies onfield.

      Will likely fall too far behind over the next few weeks to make it up. And sad though it is, he may also leak cash making a decent sideways trade nigh on impossible.


      1. I’m not sure it even needs to be as low as 400 points – the guideline I’ve heard before is 50 points x the number of rounds remaining (so, as of right now, being 1000 points behind the leader doesn’t mean you’re entirely out of it).


  5. sheed ranked 11 th overall in SC @ 450k , still scoring well with gaff in the team , i’v seen enough , looks like a breakout player to me , may have to drop a bomb on a very serviceable cogs if i cant find another way to get him in to my team


  6. Has anyone seen David recently?

    Wondering if he’s OK after our robust discussion on Andrew Phillips in the Round 3 Breaking Even thread.


    1. No official word, but no doubt Fyfe and Rockliff will be assessed later in the week. Delayed symptoms are a real issue, and clubs understandably don’t take chances with concussion these days.
      Scott said that Kelly could have returned to the field last Thursday night if required. Given that and the long break between games, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get up for this week.


    2. Not convinced Kelly is a huge concern.

      Only thing I’ve seen so far is that Liam Ryan reckons Fyfe will be ready for the derby this week. Not that you can read ANYTHING into that.
      Reckon we’re unlikely to know until MUCH later in the week. I’d be planning for the worst, in the hope that you don’t have to do anything. At least you’ll be prepared!

      Q1. How many of them do I have?
      Q2. Do I have bench cover to restrict the pts loss to say 50/player? and if not
      Q3. If I’m going for overall can I afford the loss of pts on the leaders? If I’m only going for Leagues can I afford a loss or two and save the trades? Probably.
      If going for overall and can’t afford to lose too many more points,
      Q4. what’s the best sideways trade(s) that I can make? Am I happy to do that?

      I’d have thought, something like:
      Kelly > HOLD
      Fyfe > HOLD or Macrae, Merrett (both same bye), Neale or Cripps
      Rockliff > Liberatore or Sheed

      Be prepared and good luck


      1. Thanks everyone,

        I have all three and I already have Libba and Sheeds.

        Hmmmm think i might wait and see, but if i do trade,
        i’ll warn everyone who i put the mozz on…LOL


        1. I didn’t see the Rocky incident, but you may be able to HOLD, given it’s not one of his historical injuries, but rather, is just plain bad luck.


          1. he dropped sideways for the footy, his opponent stopped & braced for his own protection , his shoulder hit the oncoming hip str8 on which stopped his fwd momentum , unfortunately his head picked up the momentum & whip lashed str8 into the stationary tucked in elbow , no malice in it , didn’t look like much but i recon the impact would have been similar to fyfe’s knock


        2. What’s your focus for the season – leagues vs. overall?

          If you’re going overall, you probably need to trade Rocky and/or Fyfe if either doesn’t get up. It’s a lot of points to lose out on, and while they may get back up the following week, there’s also the chance it snowballs and they miss a second game or come back and score poorly. If they play, just back them in.

          If you’re playing for league wins, have a look at your opponents for this week. How does their team compare, do they have the same problems you do, are they just terrible and you’re projected to win by 500 points anyway, are they on fire and projected to smash you by 500 points anyway? All good things to consider before making the trades.

          I’ve held players through injury in the past because I was up against teams I knew I’d be beating regardless. This week, in my main cash league, my opponent and I only have 6 unique players. Captaincy and trades could be the difference, so I’ll be avoiding the trade button til after the round starts and I can see what he’s done, and I’ll probably chuck the VC on a red herring until the last possible moment to try and get an advantage there. Ideally, I’d like to be able to VC my opponent’s C, so that I can match it if they score well, or take the risk and try and better it if required.


      2. Yeah, I’m not aware of Liam Ryan’s credentials as a Neuropsychologist / Doctor so I’d wait and see.

        With Kelly, I was planning on bringing him in this week at F3 but am now leaning towards Dahlhaus (70k cheaper, averaging 104 (versus 108) but should still be top 6-8 forward by year’s end).

        Early one for the thumbs: TU – Kelly; TD – Dahlhaus


    3. I don’t have either Rocky or fyfe. If afl are serious and that means the clubs regarding concussion they do not play either of those players this week.
      They were both basically out cold, if they play and cop another head knock a week after the long term could be really bad.
      If I had them in my SuperCoach I’d obviously want them to play, however I almost feel this should be a mandoratory week off for that type of concussion


    1. Dunkley has been in the middle mostly for rounds 1 & 2, watched the game on the weekend seemed to me to play slightly less mid (no stats to back it up). Also on that when he is in the middle he is struggling to find the ball. IMO hold him we all saw what he is capable of at the end of last year, he will hit back.

      Setterfield seemed to play more on the wing/ half forward flank to me & could get near the ball suprising considering the blues played alright. Hopefully scores well & drops the BE back down


    2. Dunkley is spending more time forward than he did last year. Hard to tell if this will continue or if Bevo will do what he usually does and shuffle some players around.

      Setterfield played a half as a tagger on Rockliff, and did it well. However his limited scoring has more to do with the fact that he’s coming off an ACL last year, and has only played 5 games of AFL level footy in his life. He’s playing limited minutes as well – 66% TOG in round 1, 88% in round 2 (tagging in the second half), 73% in round 3. May get rested at some point, and until then he’s likely to be a slower burn (not Gibbons slow though). Equally capable of having a solid 20+ possession game with a goal or two that nets him an 85+ score and some good growth. Trade if a high quality bubble boy presents, but otherwise he’s likely to make enough money over the next 4-6 weeks to justify holding him.


  7. Got Ben Mckay and Hore as DEF bench (dont ask why) and neither generating,

    Should i bite bullet and Mckay >> Lockhart or wait it out.

    TU – Yes
    TD – Hold


    1. If named, it’s probably not a bad idea. That being said, wait for the teams. 0-3 for Melbourne so you’d assume the axe will be swung.

      Hore may even get another go with May likely to miss and the Melbourne backline leaking like a sieve.


  8. TU/TD

    Jamie Elliott to Rozee?
    I’ve missed Rozee’s first price rise but Elliott already has a BE above his average



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