Burning Question – Rd13

Written by Schwarzwalder on June 13 2017

Currently in 57.8% of teams, Nat Fyfe has been appearing more often in our Trade Talk and Polling Station threads of late………and not in a good way.

Starting at a discount price of $573k, we all expected Fyfe to average (at least) 110 pts for the season.  The Brownlow Medallist was raring to go after his leg injuries of the past few years.  After scoring a ton in each of the first five games, Fyfe’s largest return over the last seven weeks is a 104 (last three Rd Avg – 87.7)  He’s gone under 90 pts on three occasions and many Supercoaches are starting to get the jitters.

One could approach this from a few angles.  Most Supercoaches currently have Fyfe so we’re not really losing too much ground in the overall picture (everyone is in the same boat).  Or ditching Fyfe could be a POD move since ‘everyone has him anyway’.  So the Burning Question is: how would you handle the Fyfe situation?

 

How are you approaching the Fyfe situation?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...
5
1


Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom

30 thoughts on “Burning Question – Rd13”

  1. Just read an article saying that he has been carrying a chest bruising injury for the last month as well as substantial thigh bruising. With this in mind I am definitely holding and am hoping that the week off freshens him up for a big second half of the year.

    26

    0
  2. The amount of people wanting to trade Fyfe is ludicrous. Is a 99.3 average from 12 games pre bye really that bad for one of the game’s premier players returning from a lengthy time off. He is easily capable of returning a 120+ average post bye and his previous 4 years have all garnered season averages over 105 with 2 seasons over 120.

    Sandilands returning post bye will help Fyfe as he has only dipped below 98 once with Sandilands in the side.

    Also a career high clanger average has contributed to his low average (5 per game) and if he can rectify that situation by reducing his clanger average to his usual career average between 3-4 this should contribute to increase in average around and above 105.

    Is the potential gain by replacing Fyfe (55-220 points) really worth wasting a trade on a proven elite player of the competition when captaincy options or loopholing premiums (i.e F6/F7) can compensate for the potential differential.

    26

    3
  3. unfourtunatly , without the protection of experienced mids around him , nath will go down as 1 of those brittle injury prone players

    2

    8
  4. Given his price, it’s such a huge tempo loss if I trade him out given it would require at least two trades and to cull a rookie early. Set to field 18 this week so is 2 trades/less cash generation worth an extra 50 points? Not sure.

    2

    5
  5. If you are copping a donut and have no r13 rookies to trade then you could look at a Fyfe sideways, the points on board make it worth it.

    5

    2
    1. I need one more premo to finish mids, so I will hold him for now and
      use trades I have to do that. (good to see another bruce on site!)

      3

      0
  6. If you’re not treating the prospect of a Fyfe trade in the “luxury” category, then you’re either a genius or you ain’t playin’ supercoach!

    9

    2
  7. I have most of the big guns in the mid and if I trade out Fyfe I am only considering Ablett (also require downgrade Stewart to get $) which means based on average Bont will be my M8. I guess this constitutes a luxury trade.

    Bye structure stays the same but longer term is a huge risk!

    Hopefully when Gawn is ready to trade in it is a sideways for Witts or Nanks (1 trade).

    So many thoughts/decisions and only a short week to decide arghhh!!

    5

    0
  8. So I was going to upgrade SPP to The Bont BE 126 this week.

    I may have to wait. Barrett and Berry still making cash and playing.

    This week I have 19 playing keeping SPP ( Bolton and Parsons included ).

    Time to move on Roughie.

    T/U Macrea.

    T/D Heeney.

    I’ve wanted both, but they would of really hurt my Bye structure earlier.

    14

    2
  9. A keeper, too good of player to sideswipe, most coaches have full premo mids now, interested who to bring in, maybe beams or ablett but both injury prone so a guy who gets around 90-100 will do fine, just wont have him as captain

    0

    2
  10. Just two weeks ago, the same poll had 5% trade / 95% hold. Now it’s 33% trade / 67% hold. Coaches are getting restless…….

    7

    0
    1. The Bont’s stats haven’t been much better the last couple of weeks though have they, despite CD’s stats counts? Or is the Bont about to explode?

      0

      0
      1. Next three games at Etihad – Bont loves it there, definitely expect him to turn it around (especially he’s strangely innacurate recent goalkicking)

        0

        0
        1. Jack – perhaps you should also consider the upcoming draws for the various options, how well players like Dusty / Fyfe (and I assume GAJ) handle the tag and how many teams will look to tag in the remaining matches, age, and so on …

          All factors in considering the value of the trade …

          1

          0
          1. Good thinking, Macca. For the record, GAJ isn’t on my radar – he’s playing brilliantly, but I just can’t trust his body to hold up – but I will definitely look into Martin’s draw before pulling the trigger.

            If any red flags pop up, I’m also keen on Dayne Zorko.

            1

            0
  11. If you compare his stats this year to those of 2015, it’s not pretty reading (note that all stats are averages unless stated otherwise):

    Contested Possessions: 17.8 in 2015, 13.8 in 2017
    Clangers: 3.8 in 2015, 5 in 2017
    Clearances 8.2 in 2015, 5.6 in 2017

    Despite spending more time forwards, he’s taking fewer marks inside 50:
    1 in 2015, just 0.3 in 2017

    And kicking the same number of goals:
    0.8 in both 2015/17

    He’s also ranked number one for total clangers this year, compared to just 15th in 2015.

    3

    1
    1. Another thing to keep in mind, particularly with the clanger stats, is that Champion Data punishes the disposer, despite it being a two-way street: the competence of the intended receiver matters.

      The fact of the matter is that Fyfe is in a much weaker team this year than he was two years ago. It follows from this that the players to whom he is passing the ball are, on average, not as good as those of 2015. Given that Fyfe’s disposal has never been the cleanest, it should come as no surprise that his clanger count is up – bad players will take possession of a dodgy kick less often than good ones.

      So for Fyfe’s clanger numbers to improve, not only does he need to improve his disposal, his teammates also need to improve in general. This seems unlikely in the immediate term. Therefore, this aspect of his scoring is not likely to improve.

      3

      3
      1. To illustrate this point, take a look at some of Fremantle’s relevant stats in both 2015 and 2017, relative to the rest of the competition (all stats are averages) :

        2015:

        Clangers: Fremantle = 43.8 (2nd best), league average = 46.5
        Disposal Efficiency: Fremantle = 74.3% (3rd), league average = 72.9%
        Marks: Fremantle = 93.5 (6th), league average = 90.1
        Contested Marks: Fremantle = 11.3 (=4th), league average = 10.7

        2017:

        Clangers: Fremantle = 55.2 (5th worst), league average = 52.7
        Disposal Efficiency: Fremantle = 73.7% (9th), league average = 73.5
        Marks: Fremantle = 88.1 (11th), league average = 92.5
        Contested Marks: Fremantle = 10.8 (9th), league average = 10.9

        As you can see, relative to the rest of the competition, Fremantle has suffered a sizeable drop-off in statistics relevant to retaining possession over the past two years. This has naturally fed into Fyfe’s statistics, which in turn feed into his SuperCoach output.

        1

        2
    2. Furthermore, you need to think about the consequences of keeping/trading him in terms of total points.

      If trading him out means that this week you get the score of, say, Dustin Martin instead of a rookie, then in order for this to be a bad trade, Fyfe would on average have to outscore Martin by the difference between Martin’s score and the rookie’s score, divided by the number of games remaining. More generally, this can be expressed as (p-r)/g, where p is a premium, r is a rookie, and g is the number of games remaining.

      Let’s say the rookie in question manages to score 70. Let’s also say that Martin has a slightly off week, and only scores 100. That’s a difference of 30. This means that over the 10 remaining games of the season, Fyfe would have to outscore Martin by an average of 3 points for this to not be a net-positive trade. It is doubtful whether Fyfe will match Martin’s scoring over the remainder of the season, let alone exceed it by three points per week. And this is with assumptions that are designed to make the idea of keeping Fyfe look okay. If the rookie scored a much more realistic 55, and Martin went and scored 130, then Fyfe would have to outscore Martin by a whopping 7.5 points per game for the remainder of the season. That simply isn’t going to happen.

      In summary, if you have enough money in the bank, and enough trades remaining, you should trade Fyfe.

      7

      5
  12. Time to trade Fyfe – not a decision taken lightly but time to shore up the midfield. Like Ablett, Fyfe is just not quite right at the moment. He may come good in the next few weeks but the fire in his belly is not burning brightly enough (to score big and consistently in SC). Big score will be here and there but the average is just very average.

    Fyfe out – Dusty in.

    Not covering for the bye – 24 players raring to go for round 13.

    Come round 14 my midfield stands as: Danger, Kelly, Trelor, Zorko, Murphy, Dusty, Cripps & Scooter (upgrade option averaging 105).
    Maybe unconventional but big scoring capacity on any given day.

    3

    1
  13. After sideways trading out Trealor whilst he was consistently sub-100 every week for Sloane who was consistelnty 110+ every week, then having their performances reversed, I reckon the lesson learnt is to get all your spots filled with ‘guns’ first, then try and sort out the better guns from the rest.

    9

    0

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *