Captaincy Projections Rd18 – PART TWO

Written by Schwarzwalder on July 17 2019

(Written & Created By Adam)

RD18 Projections Part 2 (GWS VS Coll, Bris VS NM, Freo VS Syd)

Part 2 Answers-

1. Which player recorded a 150+ in their last encounter against their RD18 opponent?

C. J Lloyd

 

2. Which player has recorded more than 70% of scores above 100 at their home ground since 2018?

C. N Fyfe                                        

 

3. Who has the higher avg differential between their wins and losses in 2019?

C. I Heeney

 

 

GWS VS Collingwood at SPO

L Whitfield:

Avg VS Coll since 2017: 105.5 from 2 (low of 96 and a high of 115)

2018 SPO Avg: 101.13 from 8 (4/8 below 100, 1/8 120+)

2019 SPO Avg: 123 from 4 (1/4 below 100, 2/4 120+)

2018 SPO Wins Avg: 107.6 from 5 (1/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)

2019 SPO Wins Avg: 123 from 4 (1/4 below 100, 2/4 120+)

2018 SPO Losses Avg: 90.33 from 3 (3/3 below 100)

2018 Wins Avg: 110.38 from 13 (3/13 below 100, 3/13 120+)

2019 Wins Avg: 112.71 from 7 (2/7 below 100, 3/7 120+)

2018 Losses Avg: 84 from 8 (7/8 below 100)

2019 Losses Avg: 103.33 from 3 (1/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)

 

Z Williams:

Avg VS Coll since 2016: 91 from 2 (low of 90 and a high of 92)

2017 SPO Avg: 89.29 from 7 (6/7 below 100, 1/7 120+)

2019 SPO Avg: 92.5 from 4 (2/4 below 100)

2017 SPO Wins Avg: 90.5 from 6 (5/6 below 100, 1/6 120+)

2019 SPO Wins Avg: 86 from 3 (2/3 below 100)

2017 SPO Losses Avg: 82 from 1

2019 SPO Losses Avg: 112 from 1

2017 Wins Avg: 94.57 from 14 (9/14 below 100, 2/14 120+)

2019 Wins Avg: 102.71 from 7 (3/7 below 100, 3/7 120+)

2017 Losses Avg: 92.33 from 6 (5/6 below 100, 1/6 120+)

2019 Losses Avg: 101.57 from 7 (4/7 below 100, 1/7 120+)

 

B Grundy:

Avg VS GWS since 2016: 104 from 3 (low of 82 and a high of 139, 2/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)

2018 Interstate Avg: 140.8 from 5 (4/5 120+)

2019 Interstate Avg: 134 from 3 (2/3 120+)

2018 Wins Avg: 130.73 from 15 (1/15 below 100, 9/15 120+)

2019 Wins Avg: 134.91 from 11 (1/11 below 100, 8/11 120+)

2018 Losses Avg: 129.86 from 7 (2/7 below 100, 4/7 120+)

2019 Losses Avg: 123 from 5 (1/5 below 100, 4/5 120+)

 

S Pendlebury:

Avg VS GWS since 2012: 111.14 from 7 (low of 76 and a high of 148, 2/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)

Last 3 VS GWS: 95 from 3 (low of 76 and a high of 109, 1/3 below 100)

2018 Interstate Avg: 91.4 from 5 (3/5 below 100)

2019 Interstate Avg: 122.67 from 3 (1/3 120+)

2018 Wins Avg: 105.73 from 15 (7/15 below 100, 4/15 120+)

2019 Wins Avg: 103.82 from 11 (5/11 below 100, 4/11 120+)

2018 Losses Avg: 98 from 6 (3/6 below 100, 0/6 120+)

2019 Losses Avg: 102.8 from 5 (2/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)

 

A Treloar:

Avg VS GWS since 2016: 97 from 2 (low of 86 and a high of 108)

2018 Interstate Avg: 115 from 2 (1/2 120+)

2019 Interstate Avg: 122.67 from 3 (2/3 120+)

2018 Wins Avg: 108.33 from 9 (2/9 below 100, 3/9 120+)

2019 Wins Avg: 113.18 from 11 (2/11 below 100, 4/11 120+)

2018 Losses Avg: 112 from 4 (1/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)

2019 Losses Avg: 98.4 from 5 (2/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)

 

Brisbane VS North Melbourne at Gabba

H Andrews:

Avg VS NM since 2018: 83.67 from 3 (low of 61 and a high of 102, 2/3 below 100)

2018 Gabba Avg: 91.44 from 9 (6/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)

2019 Gabba Avg: 82 from 6 (4/6 below 100, 1/6 120+)

2018 Gabba Wins Avg: 96.5 from 2 (1/2 below 100)

2019 Gabba Wins Avg: 86.4 from 5 (3/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)

2018 Gabba Losses Avg: 88.5 from 8 (6/8 below 100, 2/8 120+)

2019 Gabba Losses Avg: 60 from 1

2018 Wins Avg: 105.5 from 2 (1/2 below 100)

2019 Wins Avg: 81.22 from 9 (7/9 below 100, 1/9 120+)

2018 Losses Avg: 86.31 from 16 (11/16 below 100, 2/12 120+)

2019 Losses Avg: 88.6 from 5 (3/5 below 100)

 

L Neale:

Avg VS NM since 2015: 113.71 from 7 (low of 74 and a high of 141, 2/7 below 100, 3/7 120+)

Last 3 VS NM: 101.33 from 3 (low of 74 and a high of 140, 2/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)

2019 Gabba Avg: 128.86 from 7 (1/7 below 100, 4/7 120+)

2019 Gabba Wins Avg: 135.17 from 6 (4/6 120+)

2019 Gabba Losses Avg: 91 from 1

2018 Wins Avg: 112.75 from 8 (2/8 below 100, 2/8 120+)

2019 Wins Avg: 131 from 11 (1/11 below 100, 7/11 120+)

2018 Losses Avg: 111.36 from 14 (4/14 below 100, 5/14 120+)

2019 Losses Avg: 106 from 5 (2/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)

 

D Zorko:

Avg VS NM since 2012: 95.42 from 12 (low of 12 and a high of 148, 6/12 below 100, 3/12 120+)

Last 3 VS NM: 107 from 3 (low of 76 and a high of 142, 1/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)

2018 Gabba Avg: 106.55 from 11 (4/11 below 100, 4/11 120+)

2019 Gabba Avg: 114.14 from 7 (2/7 below 100, 3/7 120+)

2018 Gabba Wins Avg: 125 from 2 (2/2 120+)

2019 Gabba Wins Avg: 117.67 from 6 (1/6 below 100, 3/6 120+)

2018 Gabba Losses Avg: 102.44 from 9 (4/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)

2019 Gabba Losses Avg: 93 from 1

2018 Wins Avg: 105.2 from 5 (3/5 below 100, 2/5 120+)

2019 Wins Avg: 108.36 from 11 (4/11 below 100, 4/11 120+)

2018 Losses Avg: 93.06 from 17 (9/17 below 100, 3/17 120+)

2019 Losses Avg: 95 from 5 (4/5 below 100)

 

T Goldstein:

Avg VS Bris since 2011: 107 from 14 (low of 61 and a high of 154, 6/14 below 100, 6/14 120+)

Last 3 VS Bris: 83.33 from 3 (low of 61 and a high of 123, 2/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)

2018 Interstate Avg: 91.63 from 8 (4/8 below 100)

2019 Interstate Avg: 107.17 from 6 (3/6 below 100, 1/6 120+)

2018 Wins Avg: 103.83 from 12 (4/12 below 100, 5/12 120+)

2019 Wins Avg: 119 from 7 (2/7 below 100, 3/7 120+)

2018 Losses Avg: 97.5 from 10 (4/10 below 100, 1/10 120+)

2019 Losses Avg: 99.33 from 9 (5/9 below 100, 1/9 120+)

 

Fremantle VS Sydney at Optus

N Fyfe:

Avg VS Syd since 2011: 114.86 from 7 (low of 85 and a high of 145, 1/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)

Last 3 VS Syd: 120.33 from 3 (low of 101 and a high of 145, 1/3 120+)

2018 Optus Stadium Avg: 117.88 from 8 (2/8 below 100, 5/8 120+)

2019 Optus Stadium Avg: 118.63 from 8 (2/8 below 100, 6/8 120+)

2018 Optus Stadium Wins Avg: 139.25 from 4 (4/4 120+)

2019 Optus Stadium Wins Avg: 118.6 from 5 (1/5 below 100, 4/5 120+)

2018 Optus Stadium Losses Avg: 96.5 from 4 (2/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)

2019 Optus Stadium Losses Avg: 118.67 from 3 (1/3 below 100, 2/3 120+)

2018 Wins Avg: 142.2 from 5 (5/5 120+)

2019 Wins Avg: 121.14 from 7 (1/7 below 100, 5/7 120+)

2018 Losses Avg: 99.7 from 10 (4/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)

2019 Losses Avg: 118.75 from 8 (2/8 below 100, 5/8 120+)

 

D Mundy:

Avg VS Syd since 2010: 107.75 from 8 (low of 59 and a high of 152, 3/8 below 100, 3/8 120+)

Last 3 VS Syd: 98 from 3 (low of 59 and a high of 152, 2/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)

2018 Optus Stadium Avg: 103.08 from 13 (5/13 below 100, 2/13 120+)

2019 Optus Stadium Avg: 100.22 from 9 (5/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)

2018 Optus Stadium Wins Avg: 112.14 from 7 (1/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)

2019 Optus Stadium Wins Avg: 93.4 from 5 (3/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)

2018 Optus Stadium Losses Avg: 92.5 from 6 (4/6 below 100)

2019 Optus Stadium Losses Avg: 108.75 from 4 (2/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)

2018 Wins Avg: 108 from 8 (2/8 below 100, 2/8 120+)

2019 Wins Avg: 84.29 from 7 (5/7 below 100, 1/7 120+)

2018 Losses Avg: 89.07 from 14 (9/14 below 100)

2019 Losses Avg: 99.33 from 9 (5/9 below 100, 3/9 120+)

 

L Ryan:

Avg VS Syd since 2018: 121 from 1

2018 Optus Stadium Avg: 96.42 from 12 (6/12 below 100, 3/12 120+)

2019 Optus Stadium Avg: 96.44 from 9 (7/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)

2018 Optus Stadium Wins Avg: 109 from 7 (2/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)

2019 Optus Stadium Wins Avg: 112.2 from 5 (3/5 below 100, 2/5 120+)

2018 Optus Stadium Losses Avg: 78.8 from 5 (4/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)

2019 Optus Stadium Losses Avg: 76.75 from 4 (4/4 below 100)

2018 Wins Avg: 106.38 from 8 (3/8 below 100, 2/8 120+)

2019 Wins Avg: 108 from 7 (4/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)

2018 Losses Avg: 79.5 from 12 (10/12 below 100, 2/12 120+)

2019 Losses Avg: 89.33 from 9 (7/9 below 100, 1/9 120+)

 

I Heeney:

Avg VS Freo since 2017: 117.5 from 2 (low of 105 and a high of 130)

2018 Interstate Avg: 100.1 from 10 (4/10 below 100, 4/10 120+)

2019 Interstate Avg: 101.86 from 7 (5/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)

2018 Wins Avg: 103.29 from 14 (5/14 below 100, 4/14 120+)

2019 Wins Avg: 104.33 from 6 (2/6 below 100, 1/6 120+)

2018 Losses Avg: 85.86 from 7 (5/7 below 100, 1/7 120+)

2019 Losses Avg: 88.6 from 10 (8/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)

 

J Lloyd:

Avg VS Freo since 2017: 127.5 from 2 (low of 82 and a high of 173)

2018 Interstate Avg: 111.9 from 10 (3/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)

2019 Interstate Avg: 122.71 from 7 (5/7 120+)

2018 Wins Avg: 112.36 from 14 (5/14 below 100, 4/14 120+)

2019 Wins Avg: 109.5 from 6 (2/6 below 100, 3/6 120+)

2018 Losses Avg: 111.5 from 8 (3/8 below 100, 3/8 120+)

2019 Losses Avg: 115.8 from 10 (0/10 below 100, 4/10 120+)

 

L Parker:

Avg VS Freo since 2014: 105.8 from 5 (low of 84 and a high of 126, 2/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)

Last 3 VS Freo: 115.67 from 3 (low of 109 and a high of 126, 1/3 120+)

2019 Interstate Avg: 107.57 from 7 (4/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)

2019 Wins Avg: 118.83 from 6 (1/6 below 100, 3/6 120+)

2019 Losses Avg: 105 from 10 (4/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)

 

RD18 Part 3 (Geel VS Haw, Melb VS WC, StK VS WB) Questions

1. Which player has recorded 70% of 120+’s against their RD18 opponent in their premium scoring history?

A. P Dangerfield

B. M Gawn

C. M Bontempelli

 

2. The 3 below Dogs all average in excess of 120 at Marvel in 2019 but which one of them possesses the highest Marvel Avg and Marvel Wins Avg this season?

A. M Bontempelli

B. J Macrae

C. J Dunkley

 

3. Who scored a 160+ in their last match against their RD18 opponent?

A. C Oliver

B. S Hurn

C. M Gawn

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18 thoughts on “Captaincy Projections Rd18 – PART TWO”

  1. When submitting this weeks captaincy projections articles, Schwarzwalder mentioned about his superb captaincy performance this season and I thought it would be interesting if we provided how we have fared currently in the comments.

    My performance:
    Captains Season Avg: 137.18 from 17
    120+: 15/17
    100-119: 2/17
    0-99: 0/17

    Captains:
    N Fyfe: 141 from 3 (147, 129, 147)
    B Grundy: 145.57 from 7 (137, 160, 134, 141, 165, 145, 137)
    P Dangerfield: 127.5 from 2 (128, 127)
    J Kelly: 125.33 from 3 (131, 138, 107)
    L Neale: 108 from 1 (108)
    M Gawn: 151 from 1 (151)

    Feel free to mention below.

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  2. Excellent Choices Adam. I’ve been burned by Gawn 87 RD 1, Kelly 106 RD16, Macrae 97 Round 5. However, I’ve nailed Cripps 194, Grundy 163, Gawn 4 x 150 and am averaging around 140.

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  3. To be honest i have hated these captaincy articles all year, and as a highly ranked player, have found them to be poor on value. While such information has a place, a simple summary of previous form and current circumstances would be much more valuable. For example, a comment on whether Mumford or Dawson Simpson is playing against grundy is of far greater value than previous stats.

    Instead of asking questions and eluding to who might have better historical form, isnt it more informative to tell the audience this statistical information?

    Again, this information has value, but as supercoach talk’s only discussion of captaincy options, it has imo turned what should be an important discussion into my least anticipated article of the week.

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    1. Supercoach Talk actually have 2 weekly articles regarding captains as there is the 3 parts of the captaincy projections article and Hot Sauce’s captains table article on a Friday which provides discussion/detail with less emphasis on a statistical nature.

      The reasoning behind the lack of commentary I provide is due to maintaining the differences between both articles as the inclusion would lead to too many similarities between both devaluing them in the process.

      Also, this season could potentially be the last season I provide captaincy projections due to likely having insufficient time next season to continue the article.

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      1. Adam you do a mountain of research for the site & it’s users. Thank you for all your hard work & we all appreciate your contribution to this site.

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          1. Moved.

            Outstanding Adam. Always. I love poring over these numbers all week, every week. They can be used to help/inform/determine so many things over the course of the season, not simply Captaincy choices each week.

            It’s up to each visitor to decide how we choose to use them, or not. All I know is I make more informed and hence better decisions with these threads than I would if they weren’t available.

            Can’t thank you enough for that Adam.

            If you don’t see value in it then so be it, but a lot of us do and will be the worse for it if it’s not around next year.

            Totally understand if it’s not Adam. Have very little time myself at the moment.

            That’s all.

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  4. Avg captain’s score = 133.65
    0-99: 1/17
    100-119: 3/17
    120+: 13/17
    Grundy – avg 133.67 from 6 (165,145,144,135,134,81!)
    Gawn – avg 129 from 3 (151,127,109)
    J Kelly – avg 124.33 from 3 (138,128,107)
    Danger – avg 145.5 from 2 (163,128)
    Cripps – avg 139.5 from 2 (169,110)
    Neale – 140 from 1
    This was an interesting exercise to look back at my choices. In only 3 rounds did I captain my highest score.
    Missed points total of 397.
    If I had selected perfectly every round my current overall rank would be 92 instead of 581.

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  5. Yep, correct from Adam. Choice of Captain has been one aspect that I’ve been consistent with all year. Thanks to Adam and his stats, I haven’t had a Captains score under 120 all season. Thanks for your efforts again, Adam!

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  6. Backlash aside, there are two ways to approach research – qualitative and quantitative research. This post leaves out the qualitative aspects, which can lead to results which are false, biased, mieading or narrow. In short, data can be generalised. If you think it anywhere near the full picture you ar wrong

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    1. Yeah, Simon, I agree both the captaincy threads could be more decisive and streamlined but you’ve got to appreciate the breadth of research and work put in by Chillo and Adam.

      They’re laying out all the options the VC/C which are, at the end of the day, personal decisions. Especially at this time of the year, you’ve got to be informed and really think outside the box if you want to make moves (eg. I’m gonna C Marshall this week).

      You’ve just got to be a bit more delicate and constructive in your feedback, Simon.

      Earlier in the season, for example, TR and I suggested Adam cut-down on the amount of players he listed on these threads. Lessened the work load for him and narrowed down our options- been guiding us to nailing C’s ever since!

      …expect TR and I did f*ck up last week, but that’s our own fault!

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      1. Also, allsaints made note of it above regarding my articles serving multiple purposes which is why a large range of options (36 this week) are usually presented as the stats provided could relate to other SC formats (eg draft) or be beneficial in deciding who to upgrade to due to performance at venue or win/loss, etc by assessing upcoming fixture and so on.

        As mentioned regularly throughout the season I’ve avoided adding commentary/suggestions due to increasing the similarity between the other captaincy article as well as complaints regarding the size which would further compound the issue if it was included. Also time constraints are present which limits the amount of information provided.

        My stats are a starting point and it’s up to the coaches to utilise their discretion in whether they decide to dig further, notice any trends or absorb what’s provided and up to their interpretations and feelings regarding their vc/c selections.

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          1. If you do that can I borrow your remaining trades?

            Also due to the comments going on a tangent from the initial question I’m very intrigued by your potential captaincy performance this season if it is possible for you to provide it?

            And 1 final question: What are the answers for the questions above for Part 3?

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            1. Lol. I’ve only got one trade left, Adam.

              As for the my captain’s this year, besides Danger in R1 I’ve pretty much nailed it by sticking with Gawn and Grundy. Have missed a few big ones, Cripps 194 and Danger’s 163 last week and I didn’t start Neale. Other than that, I haven’t had any shockers and when I’ve missed C’ing my highest scoring player in a particular round they’ve only outscored my C by 10 – 20 points. Guess that’s adds up though.

              Now to the trivia. Wow, tough. #3 is easy for me to remember as an Eagles man, so C. Danger has a great record v Hawks, so I’ll go A for #1. And #2, think it has to be C by virtue of Dunkley’s 173 and 202 at Marvel.

              Much more difficult than usual, Adam!

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  7. Maybe you could do a seperate thread Simon as suggested?
    I’m sure the boys would post it for all to read….
    Adam I hope you somehow have some time next year to continue at least 1 captaincy thread a week personally I find them Gold!

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