Chasing Points

Written by Schwarzwalder on May 4 2017

In early February this year, the Brains Trust behind SCT met up for lunch to discuss the finer points on the Meaning Of Life.  Plus classic literature from Tolstoy & Dostoyevsky and how their work is lost on the youth of today…………..just kidding 😉

We had a round-table Supercoach discussion over a couple of quality pints on tap.  One of the topics that came up was ‘chasing points’ in SC…….but more specifically: Why do we engage in it every year?  Why do we fall for it every year? 

Having had plenty of time for reflection, I’d say the answer is FEAR.  Fear of missing out.  Fear of falling behind.  Fear of watching that form player that is going large every week.  Fear that the form player is owned by everyone except you.  Fear that their price tag will be too hefty otherwise.

So I’m here today to present you with some sobering numbers from the past six years (thank you Nath for your stats).  The following is a list of all the players that have averaged 120+ during the season over the last six years………..

 

2011

Scott Pendlebury (COL) 127.7

Dean Cox (WCE) 125.5

Gary Ablett (GEE) 124.8

Dane Swan (COL) 123.4

Nick Dal Santo (STK) 121.1

 

2012

Gary Ablett (GCS) 139.2

Scott Pendlebury (COL) 124.7

Dane Swan (COL) 123.3

Dayne Beams (COL) 121.7

Josh P Kennedy (SYD) 120.9

Jobe Watson (ESS) 120.7

 

2013

Gary Ablett (GCS) 128.8

Scott Pendlebury (COL) 126.6

 

2014

Gary Ablett (GCS) 136.7

Tom Rockliff (BRL) 132

Scott Pendlebury (COL)126.2

Nathan Fyfe (FRE) 122.2

 

2015

Todd Goldstein (NTH) 128.8

Nat Fyfe (FRE) 124.3

 

2016

Patrick Dangerfield (GEE) 131.7

 

2017 (currently)

Rory Sloane (ADE) 132.3

Marcus Bontempelli (WBD) 122.8

 

It certainly is an elite club!  What really sticks out for me is that only one player managed to achieve a 120+ avg last year (Dangerfield).  Since 2012, only six separate players have been able to reach the magical mark.  Three of those players have only achieved it once, showing how difficult a task it really is.  My main goal here is to emphasise the long odds of most players maintaining these sort of numbers.  While many players will have a streak of form during the season, it is only the truly elite that have any chance of holding these stats.

To put it in further perspective, just the 13 players behind Dangerfield managed a 110+ average  last year and nearly all were MIDs (Big Maxy Gawn-R, Dusty-F/M & Z.Merrett-F/M).    The same applies to 2015 where 13 players scored a 110+ avg behind Fyfe & Goldstein.  The only defender amongst them was Heath Shaw.  Again there were no genuine FWDs.

Think back to the last few weeks and the popular trade-in options (Matera, Yeo, Roberton, Hibberd etc).  No disrespect to these players but the chances of maintaining their current averages are practically slim to nil.  Don’t go out of your way to pay an exorbitant fee for anyone except an elite MID.  Don’t let fear get the better of you.  The statistics are quite clear that they’re highly unlikely (bordering on impossible) to keep up their current output.

Of the two players hovering over the 120+ mark, Bontempelli is certainly capable of holding his average throughout the year.  Anyone who has read ‘Scoring Anomalies’ will know that Champion Data smile upon The Bont.  I’d predict that Sloane will come back to the pack as the season continues, but he can still finish the year over 120+.  At most, they might be joined by one more MID.  I’d be tipping either Dangerfield, Pendlebury or Rockliff (if they stay fit, of course).  Otherwise……..Be wary of chasing pts, Coaches!

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20 thoughts on “Chasing Points”

  1. I can afford Sloane this week, but leaves me with funds to get Rance next week.

    Otherwise I grab Adams this week and then J.Selwood next week.

    I know which one I want!

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  2. The other side of the coin is that you ignore that player, expecting his form to regress – and it never does, at least not to the extent you expect. These ones are a bit sneakier than point chasing, because they’re not in your team, so you’re not paying as much attention to their performance.
    Last year I expected Sam Docherty to have a form dip at some point, but he never did. It took me until after the byes to be able to afford him.
    I agree that Brandon Matera was a terrible selection; he has an extensive history of mediocre performance, dotted with bursts of high scoring. But I think guys like Yeo and Roberton are different – they’ve been threatening a breakout for a while (as you know, Schwarz :)). I don’t expect them to maintain their current numbers, but they don’t have to. Just stay in the top 6 to 8 in their position, and they justify their selection.

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    1. Zach Merrett is another good example. I expected him to drop off similar to aaron hall so never brought him in but he became one of the must have forwards last year.

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  3. The reality is we’re not just chasing points but money.

    Too late for the money on Sloane, although he is certainly one of the very few players out there with the potential to average 120+.

    Yeo on the other hand is interesting. I wish I’d got on, and even at 500k he is appealing. Not because he will average 115+ (he certainly won’t) but because he looks to be a genuine top 6 Forward contender with dpp capability.

    Ablett. Well. He’s erm Ablett. He may not average 120+ anymore but if he’s fit and under 600k he’s not a bad option. Barring 1 particularly bad game his numbers look quite alright. So i think i’d count him as a fallen premium who just dropped a low score out of his price cycle than jumping on last week’s 200 point game.

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  4. Sloane for me this week. Perma-captain Danger will now be Perma-captain Sloane.
    Will have to cull Otten and Houston for him, but its worth it to get the top player in SC in 2017

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  5. Good job Swartzie, I will call it CHASING NUMBERS: points and money. This year I have decided to stick to my guns and only trade in proven/fallen premiums. I filled my team with more 300k-400k and started with 4 rookies. I am now in the top 1% and going nicely.
    Chasing points is absolute FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) It is all around us, sign of time. Lucky I missed the Matera Bubble though..
    We have players who will always have a “flashpan” effect and get you excited for 4 or 6 games, then disappear. I prefer quiet achievers of players that consistently give you 85-105 points week in, week out, season in, season out.
    Everyone said to start with Danger and Dalhaus, I decided to keep them as an upgrade target after the byes. 700k + was a lot of money and hard BE to keep for Danger….When I can have other captains cheaper…Here we go..

    Don’t get me wrong. Buddy, Hanners, Simpson and R Gray haven’t delivered for me so far. Do I panic and get rid of them? I was for Buddy (and the Swans form this season. Another Freo?) Then I decided No Bcoz I know at the end they will average close to 95-100.
    Chasing numbers will get you to the finals with oponents with the same players..boring..There are sooo many other players..

    The must have remains the champion data darlings: Bont, Rocky, Mills I still wont get them until after the byes because I haven’t started with them and I’ll wait for my cash cows to ripen..
    I agree with Chillo: Resist, Resist,Resist : stick to the plan and use recent history as a guide.
    Then I am a Frenchman new to AFL. Am I wrong? Please comment

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    1. Makes great sense……Bloody Frogs 🙂 I married one and she still doesn’t have a clue about AFL!?!

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    2. Good to have you on board, Jeannot! I love it when the SCT Coaches have a plan and stick to it. Follow that gut feeling, it’s usually most reliable……..

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    1. Bont will hover around $575k – 625k all year imo. Get him now if you want him, otherwise you’re missing out a lot of points. I don’t having him though. Yet. I’m thinking of double downgrading this week, so I’ll likely pick him up next week.

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  6. What? So you’re saying that if I select Ablett this week I won’t get his 210 points from last week?

    That sucks!

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  7. Don’t know what you’re talking about with this points chasing …. in unrelated news i’m thinking about bringing in the #1 fwd in SC this season – Cam Pedersen (avg 114). 😉

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    1. Pedersen should be worth watching. He’ll score ruck level points, which have been good at Melbourne for a couple of years.

      Even Spencer tonned up in his first game.

      Pedersen really is an awkward price. If he was near Spencer’s price I would have been all over him. But high 300’s? Nope.

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      1. I was drooling with sarcasm in my post HH, but hmmm, maybe you’re onto something. Scores another ton this week and he’s gotta be considered. But he won’t so i won’t.

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