(Written & Created By AllSaints)
According to my SC app tonight, 15,456 SuperCoaches have traded OUT Isaac Heeney this week. Conversely 14,283 have traded IN Tom Rockliff. Here’s why I won’t be doing either.
Isaac Heeney is in his fifth year of playing AFL football, is coming into his prime SC output (see Rocky below) and as his curve below shows, his SC scoring is on the upside of his SC pts curve. Yes, he has an ankle injury and Horse is a dick (he must be or they wouldn’t call him horse), but he did have a full pre-season and he did have his output suppressed last year also, from a concussion. He has only scored 152 SC pts this season, so we can statistically expect a minimum 1900 more from here (a return to the mean).
Rocky’s first four years were similar (with his first injury blip, marring his fourth year’s output), but now in his 11th season, he is very much on the downside of his SC pts bell-curve and its inevitable, associated decline. He has already pumped out 254pts this year and even the most optimistic of buyers should not expect more than 1500 more SC points from here to season’s end. That would represent a greater upward spike (post-injury season) than ever seen before in his career.
By all means take the risk, but I know I won’t be doing either. There will need to be significant statistical anomalies for Heeney not to score 400 more points than Rocky, from here to season’s end. As ever these are just my personal views. It’s your team, so you must make your own decisions. I just hope this helps in some way to better inform those decisions.
Good luck whatever you decide.
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