Compare The Pair – Heeney & Rockliff

Written by Schwarzwalder on April 5 2019

(Written & Created By AllSaints)

According to my SC app tonight, 15,456 SuperCoaches have traded OUT Isaac Heeney this week. Conversely 14,283 have traded IN Tom Rockliff. Here’s why I won’t be doing either.

Isaac Heeney is in his fifth year of playing AFL football, is coming into his prime SC output (see Rocky below) and as his curve below shows, his SC scoring is on the upside of his SC pts curve. Yes, he has an ankle injury and Horse is a dick (he must be or they wouldn’t call him horse), but he did have a full pre-season and he did have his output suppressed last year also, from a concussion. He has only scored 152 SC pts this season, so we can statistically expect a minimum 1900 more from here (a return to the mean).

Rocky’s first four years were similar (with his first injury blip, marring his fourth year’s output), but now in his 11th season, he is very much on the downside of his SC pts bell-curve and its inevitable, associated decline. He has already pumped out 254pts this year and even the most optimistic of buyers should not expect more than 1500 more SC points from here to season’s end. That would represent a greater upward spike (post-injury season) than ever seen before in his career.

By all means take the risk, but I know I won’t be doing either. There will need to be significant statistical anomalies for Heeney not to score 400 more points than Rocky, from here to season’s end. As ever these are just my personal views. It’s your team, so you must make your own decisions. I just hope this helps in some way to better inform those decisions.

 

Good luck whatever you decide.

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26 thoughts on “Compare The Pair – Heeney & Rockliff”

  1. All week I’ve been looking at Dusty, Heeney and Dunkley not sure what to do. My indecision i’d leading me towards the ballsy decision to hold my ground and to not make the trade.

    There’s still time today and tomorrow before they all play with options galore but I’m thinking of holding them.

    Definitely not getting Rocky. Burn man is not making my team.

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      1. Seriously guys, put the emotion aside and go for it. Such good value. Besides he’s popularity now is so high it’s dosnt matter to much if he gets injured. He’s far from unique. And just go to libba or sheed, worpal, crouch if he gets injured again.
        Join the fun. Lol.

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          1. Blues shifted Setterfield onto him as a direct tag because he was killing it. No wines to worry about – this week Wines is back … will the lions tag one or the other? Will be interesting …

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  2. Going to quote my comment from adams elite numbers for Isaac Heeney because I think its relevant again.

    “You’ve actually made me review Heeney here Adam, and I’m not sure I’m as sold now!

    You’ve shown his score dips decently in losses, which the swans had a lot of in the second half of last year. This year they play some very hard teams pre-bye: Adelaide, Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast, Collingwood, GWS and Geelong. That’s 6/7 of the top 8 sides from last year (excluding the swans) + Adelaide who are expected to have a renaissance. Throw in Essendon and North and you’ve got one of the harder pre-bye fixtures possible.

    Considering there’s not a whole lot of value in his price I may just consider not starting Heeney!”

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    1. Just so it’s clear this isnt some sort of humble brag – I still need ended up starting Heeney. Hes gone now though.

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    2. To be fair I’m not sure Essendon, Adelaide, and North are as difficult matchups as people might have expected. But it’s still a good point you make – if Heeney’s record in losses really is that bad, then this week’s game against Carlton will be telling: if the Swans lose, it might be time to cut him loose.

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  3. Spot on Allsaints. Heeney is on is prime and is playing out of position and with a minor niggle. There is an explanation to his scoring. It is crazy to trade out a Healthy premium you trusted to start with. As for Rocky, I started him bcoz Wines out, I knew he’ll earn me money and points early to upgrade to a super premo hoping he won’t brake down beforehand. It is risky as. And I did it bcoz I wasn’t sure of rookies JS and scoring at the start. Don’t do it. I wouldn’t bring him in if I didn’t start him. I know it is hypocritical of me to tell to not to. Even if you believe he’ll play 22 games , his average will be coming down. Believe me.

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  4. Everyone makes great points. And that is what it is all about. Points!

    If you started Rocky then the risk has already paid off in spades. Points and cash! The cumulative points gained versus what you paid for are already worth $47k in value. If you had the VC on him in Rd1, you can add $30k+ to that! That’s not including the price rise you are also about to receive. I say many congrats to you all and enjoy the ride!

    But if you didn’t start him, then trading him in is a big risk. You won’t get to enjoy those fruits already harvested and with the return of Wines, the best may have already gone.

    With Heeney, the exact opposite is true. If you did start him, the worst, with his ankle niggle and consequent playing position, is likely happening right now. An 8-day break and named in the guts this week will hopefully mean some improvement. I’m holding tight. If you didn’t start him, I’d be waiting to pounce at the first signs of full fitness, decent MID-minutes and a bottoming-out in his price.

    Good luck all.

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    1. Forgive me if I’m wrong but I think Heeney was named in the guts last week. How did that work out for us ? Hope he’s rested this week late out. Next week he’s gone.

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      1. you are correct F – was about to post the same. He was indeed named in the guts and moved forward.

        There is a very large risk with Heeney (Horse being its name!!) … and coupled with an injury … it is a concern.

        You can’t win this thing going with everyone else … you can also lose it by not going with everyone else! … its the risk we all bare, in our dark lounge rooms or studies or sneaking on the phone when the missus isnt watching! … which results in shouts of joy, or anguish …

        Good luck all with your choices … but c’mon AllSaints …. ride the Rocky train!!!

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    1. Its what I’m doing. I’ve said before I wouldn’t trade heeney sideways for another questionable fwd. But for an obvious upgrade I think it’s worth it. Say heeney comes good and averages 105, an uber premium will still average 110+. I’m very comfortable going heeney to Lloyd, macrae, Neale, cripps or Oliver. But anyone lesser than those I’d hold.

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      1. I’d love to trade heeney & get a midfielder like Neale/Fyfe but I don’t have any midfield/fwd DPP players to allow it 🙁 that’s frustrating! Drew & setters both already forward for me.
        Lloyd is a definite top 2 defender heeney a questionable top 6 fwd. trade makes sense in my head just need few thumbs up haha and hope heeney doesn’t go nuts if I do trade

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        1. But what if Lloyd goes nuts…. Hes possible point scoring scares me not being in my team. I’m not saying do the trade, I’m just saying if you do, make sure it counts.

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      2. Theoriginalforce, it still doesnt make sense. If you trade him to lets say Macrae, your fwd line is weaker. Come post byes, most good teams will have at least the 4 top scoring guns on each line. Heeney will be. And your head to head will be crap unless you unearth a POD who can match/better his scores. Otherwise to bring him back in you would have wasted 2 trades.

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        1. I personally don’t believe heeny will be up there. Right or wrong, I see heeny as a mistake pick which I’m fixing now. I probably will eat these words but I feel a season average of 85-90 is where he will sit.
          This is just a gut feeling, nothing else, if I’m wrong oh well, if I’m right, well that will be awesome.

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          1. So if not Heeney, which 6 forwards are going to be averaging more than 85-90 ? The forward line is the most difficult to fill with premiums. As much as I’ve been disappointed with Heeney so far, I’m not willing to use a trade to replace him, only to then think later on in the season, if only…..

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            1. Lisa i will give it few weeks. Danger is locked in, I will make sure to have the good Rockies . Then which other Geelong Fwd , and the usual suspects : Dunkley, Heeney, Boak, Darling, Billing, Buddy…Mundy..but I will sit tight for the time being none is beating down the doors

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            2. Everyone hates it but the 3 Geelong boys look like they’ll be there again – danger, kelly and menegola. Add Boak with his move back to the midfield who looks like he’ll go 95-100 most likely and you’re left with 2 more spots for top 6 fwd.

              Heeney, dunkley, Daniel,Billings, Worpel and Buddy are left to fight for the other two spots.

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              1. The way dahl is playing too I would put him right next to danger Kelly and menegola! 4 cats, who could all arguably be pushing for f1-f4 spots

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            3. I feel that it dosent matter, there all there abouts just jump on the cheapest 90+ scorer when they fall one after the other. Get your mids and backs sorted(more points) then get the fwds. I started 4 onfield fwds,so not as worried. But I’d get in any f4 and leave the rest till your other lines are done. (my personal take)

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