The second most limiting factor in the game is money.
The first being?
Trades. You use trades to make money, not the other way around. But right now we’re talking about money. We need a lot of it. We need to make as good use of what we start with as we can, but we also need to make more during the season. The traditional way to do that is with rookies, who are often called “cash cows”, or just “cows.”
Thus “Cow Talk.”
Right. But, in practice we can make money from any player if their price goes up and we are willing to sell them. If a player stays in your team once they are in, their prices changes don’t mean anything. Of course with limited trades, a player’s price has to go up enough to be worth trading out.
How much is enough?
Thank you for asking unprompted! In general, people look for at least $150,000 in profit. Often we can get more from cheap cows, but that’s a good base target.
And, what is needed for someone to make $150,000?
A good rule of thumb is a player needs to average 30 more than what they were priced to average at the time you brought them in. If you start with them, that’s their starting price divided by 5430.
Wait, 5430 exactly?
Yes, shockingly.
But every other season you calculated it, it has been some awful out to many decimal points number!
Imagine my surprise. But yeah, it finally is a nice round number for a change. I think. I’m going with that for now, although there is an argument for it being a bit more, but I’ll go into how pricing works in a different post where I will show how we get starting and future prices in detail, but until then you can look up last years post on that, or just trust me the math is coming.
How exciting, the math is coming. You must be great fun at parties.
Math is useful because you can count pumpkin seeds!
….He’s not wrong….
Yes, right you are little mate. Anyways, 30 time 5430 is 162,900. But there is deflation over the season, and so if you sell a player you started with during the byes that will end up being a profit of about .925 times 162,900 which = 150,682.
Gah, wha? Deflation!?!?
For now, trust me. That’s based on last season’s numbers, but fits previous seasons too. I posted about deflation last per-season and will again soon, but that’s another thing out of the scope of this post.
So what if you sell sooner?
Then you make a bit more cash. But it takes time for prices to rise, so the you can’t dodge some deflation. And if you bring in a player over the byes, they still need to go up about 30 points in average.
Couldn’t you have just said 30 and been done with it?
Yeah, I guess, but I like to provide data and not just say stuff. Anyways, back to the main points
Which are?
You can make good money from players who are not rookie priced cows, and during the season you can make money playing the Key Position Forward market?
The What!!!
Key position forwards have prices that go up and down, a lot, often, like the stock market, but forwards. Since we’re talking about them now, I’ll do that first.
The rarest and hardest to use Cow-Like object is a normal player, very likely a KPF, who has had a really bad patch during the season and their price has dropped will below what they are likely to score in the future. You bring them in low and sell high.
And that really happens?
Well, not much. I almost left this part out, but then I realized that there was value to the warning.
Squeak?
The warning being that you have to be very careful that a player who is having really low scores is just having a bad run and isn’t just demonstrating a new and lower level of ability. Last season JJK over at the Eagles put up some low scores near the end of the year, and after a 7 one round, I thought about doing just this. He was down to just $282k after the 7 was in his price cycle twice. I was so thinking I could bring him in and make cash, and I needed a forward. So, I looked at his season, and noticed he was 31 and had put up a 73 average the previous season, and decided not to risk it because I thought he might really be playing at a lower level.
What happened?
The next round he scored a 129.
Ohhhh, you must have had an embolism!
Yeah. pretty much. I wailed. I gnashed my teeth. But not much price change ’cause the 7
And then?
He scored a 36.
And then?
He scored a 35.
And then?
Stop that, I know where my car is! Anyways he then did two in the 30’s and the season ended and I was very glad I hadn’t tried it.
So the point is not to try this?
Well, the point is to be way careful if you want to try it mid season.
Mid season? How about at the start of the season?
Glad you asked!
Hey is that a transition?
Yes, good catch, although the transition works much better when we don’t stop to talk about transitions, just a a hint.
Squeak!
Anyways, at the start of the season we will have some players who played so few games the previous season they get a price break. In theory there is a rule, but in practice Tom Mitchell did not follow the rule, so really there is not a rule, just an expectation. Some players who played no or very few games get a huge break from what they would have been priced at. Tom Doedee for example. He is priced at just $273,700 after playing just one match is 2019 and scoring a 56. But his previous season he went for 82.2, which is mighty for a first season bloke.
So math?
One, one pumpkin seed! Two, two pumpkin seeds!
Thank you, technically that was math. Anyways, for Doedee, he is priced to average 50.4. He needs to average 80,4 in order to make $150k. And since he already averaged 82.2 it sure seems like he has a good change to make that.
With points
Right, and while he makes his money, you can put him on the field and get his 80+ average, Much better than the 52.8 average needed to make $150k from a $123,900 cow.
So why doesn’t everyone own him?
Fear. He did just miss last season due to injury.
Fair enough.
Also, probably some fear he won’t back up his previous average.
Well, ok
And some people are just afraid of mid-pricers.
But that’s silly. Obviously there are a lot of mid pricers who are not useful, but some are and they should not be all lumped together. Fallen players and breakout candidates are pretty different!
Yes. And who does the exposition and who sets up the exposition….?
Oh, I forgot, Sorry…. No….Not Happy Birthday… No, not that! Please, No!! Not Happy Birthday!!!!!
(Averts his little eyes)
(Sounds of frantic puffing, followed by a small explosion)
Well, that’s all cleared up!
So, to sum up, just because a player is not a cow does not mean they are not a useful cow-like object. And in a lot of cases the risk of those cow-like objects is probably lower than the risk of many cows. I could and am, arguing that Doedee is just as good of a choice as Rowell. Doedee is priced to average just 12.2 more, but has an established history of scoring at 82 while Rowell could easily end up going at 70. Doedee gives you more points on field. Doedee might even be better.
Better scoring or better overall?
Both, actually. I do not think it is safe to assume Rowell is Walsh 2.0. And the Suns, well…..
Sounds like a poll?
Good idea!
Hang on, isn’t the most limiting factor in the game good downgrade options, with trades second and money third?
Oh, damn! Yes. Well, I’m not gonna rewrite all that, still good catch! Ten points to Hufflepuff!
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Good stuff as always FD
Love it FD. Doedee by a (hamster’s) whisker!
As…have you joined 195297 yet…see note on reply to FD below.
Love to mate, but am chockers already. I may have to renege on a League as is 🙁
Thanks, learnt a lot and that was very helpfully trying to figure out how much someone has to go up.
Gra Pol…join us at 195297..see notes tp FD below. Two spots left.
I joined, thanks.
Great
As always, an entertaining and informative read.
Thanks FD.
Just a bit of extra info, Doedee got injured in the second qtr so he scored 56 in less than half a game.
Great article. Good insight into cows and mid priced players.
Outstanding as always FD. Are you able to join 195297 ?? Its for SCT tragics who may have fallen off the rails…..outrageous sledging and poor sportsmanship is encouraged, but anything PC is banned. We need a calming influence such as yourself.
Hi FD,
As always, thanks for your insight and knowledge and time taken to write your posts. But I must say, I am finding it a little bit harder to read your posts as time goes on. The ‘3rd person’ and humour seems to be outweighing the substance of your articles.
Apologies if taken the wrong way.
From a loyal fan of @SCT!
No worries!
I have always assumed that some percentage of readers would prefer I write in a more traditional style. That is totally fair to like and prefer.
What I can say about that is, first, the content comes first and humor does not affect how much there is. That’s because the humor is my natural writing style, and so it takes effort to not have it, rather than effort to put it in. The other thing is since I do this for fun, I write whatever comes out, and enjoy that. If I had to worry about being all serious and clear and proper, it would end up feeling like work, I’d have less fun, and end up posting less. So if the content is getting worse, that’s just me being worse at content, and not an effect of the funny stuff.
Hope that explains a bit
Great stuff Father. Another example of the key position forward market and a more successful one would have been JJKs teammate Darling.
I believe alot of people who started with him traded him out after scoring 12 down at Geelong. Off memory, I think his scored dipped below 300k. I remember I had a friend who bought him at this stage and told me to find him a rookie on the bubble right now that will make more profit than him.
Also, you get a very handy player to use during the byes and you can either use the profit (sell) or keep as a permanent f7.
I’m gonna have my eye open for the kpf market this year.
Great read Father
Someone please talk me out of starting this fwd line. After reading this article I’m very tempted by these cow like objects considering im not sold on the premiums available.
Whitfield
T.Lynch (rich), J.Steven, J.Patton, D.Smith,
Rookie
Randy, do like the bravado, but its much too much of a risk…..sure, you might get an extra mid uber as a result but you might also be blowing some recovery trades. Of your list, I have Whitfield and Smith. Patton is the interesting one…dpp cover in ruck, particularly r14, dirt cheap, and hawks always come up trumps when getting recycled players….who was their last failure ? These guys don’t play in the magoos.
If Gawny is out for an extended period and there have been some longer timeframes doing the rumours today then cheap R2’s or recycleable R2’s will come into their own.
If you don’t trust the premiums it makes sense.
But the question becomes if you don’t trust any of the premiums who do you upgrade to?
Best bet I can suggest is not just sort by average but also by total points. Look at prior seasons. Look at age… eventually you will find that you have to have upgrade targets and mostly the top tens per year in any given spot (barring supercoach reclassifying dpp’s) usually only change by 2 or 3 players.
Thanks HH & Wighty,
The idea would be to bide time to see which premiums prove themselves during the season, then upgrade at the appropriate time (hopefully a straight swap for a fallen premium). If I’m lucky 2 of them may end up being keepers at F6/F7.
I also like the ruck swing option Patton provides because i’m currently running Jacobs there and his age and possible low output are a risk (pending Gawn updates)
Worst case if it fails I can always go 1 up/1 down to premium/rookie come round 3!
I’m very tempted to run this currently, will have to wait and see if I can hold my nerve before the season starts!
With your Doedee example you have also spent 150k more than a 123k rookie. So that 150k would have been used somewhere else to get the extra 30pts on the field so arent you just back at square one ?
Kind of, but it ain’t that simple.
Once you’ve picked all your rookies. And then all your Premos that you’re (as) CERTAIN (as you can be) will finish top 6-8-2-6, you will inevitably have cash and holes left in your side.
THEN is the time to consider your cow like options and you want ONFIELD POINTS and CASH GENERATION in that order … hello DOEDEE!! 🙂
I think the margin for extra points is greater at the lower end. Doedee has a good chance of outscoring a 150k cheaper rookie by 25-30 ppg.
At the top end, if you use that extra 150k to go from Jack Steele (515k) to Macrae (668k) that’s probably a maximum of a 20 ppg difference (if Macrae avgs 120 and Steele 100), and possibly as little as 10 ppg.
Plenty of ways to look at it.
Using the additional funds to move from Steele to Macrae is a solid chance of picking a top 4 mid for the season and hopefully no trades involved. To finish in the top 8 mids on average you had to average 113 last season. Should Jack lift his average pushing 110 then he would only be $50,000 away as at byes from an upgrade to players averaging 115 , however, the Saints have that awkward round 12 bye.
Tom Lynch is an interesting one, priced @ 71.6 and if he can average 90 until his bye round he will only be approximately $53,400 from the forwards who are averaging 100.
Wingard is the other one on watch although priced $24,000 more than Lynch has that favourable round 14 bye.
Think there some solid mid price gambles this year in defence and forward, the midfield is too big of a field as there was in excess of 25 who averaged 100+.
What you can buy for each dollar is not equal. So it all depends on who you spend it on. Also, sometimes you have left over money and it is nice to be able to use it
Great read father.. I am leaning toward doedee by a smidge!
What are your guys thoughts on Rozee, walsh & Bailey Smith taking there games to the next level in 2020? Walsh for me is an awkward price being mid only but I’m awfully tempted by the other 2 being fwd eligible where you can take a gamble…
News is in Ollie wines has undergone left shoulder surgery this is big for Houston and rozees midfield minutes…
Sorry for the delay in responding. I cleverly scheduled this for before a trip, so was not online for a while!