Cow Supply

Written by Father Dougal on February 1 2016

Making money out of nothing at all

I’m still not clear if cows start out small and grow, or if they start out far away and then get closer. Or both. But I know where to find the answers and I won’t lie. And I won’t fake my data as part of some scheme. I know just when to face the truth and I know just how to dream of winning it all.

Oh, and I always know the name of the game. (It’s Supercoach, duh)

 I found myself wondering something recently; How many players last year rose in price enough to make them worth using a trade to take advantage of their growth? How many cows were there? In other words, what was the cow supply? And, when did they become available? Easy enough to figure out of you’re mad enough to look at every player from last season and write down all the ones who rose more than $150,000. List below:

 

What’s there to learn at first glance? The highest starting price was $318,100. Five total over $250,000.  So some midpricers on the lower end did make some decent cash, although only one made over $200,000. All five were either 23 or 24 years old. And none of them were players a sane person would have picked to be in their week 1 team, and I doubt few if any people brought them in later. Not good downgrade targets and certainly not good upgrade targets.

Looks like we are down to 19 possible cows. Of those, 8 were not named in round 1. How many of them would have been useful?  Tarrant made some money fast, and if you held him long enough had some good scores. Not a bad downgrade target at $144,700, but not great. Krakour also did ok. His start price of $106,900 was great and he ended up making cash eventually with some good scores along the way. Andrews started blah, and if you didn’t waste a trade getting rid of him, would have jumped up in price right at the end of the season, or been a good backup. I don’t think I would have been happy had I brought him in. The remaining five would not have started making you money until the mid teen rounds or later, and would not have been worth harvesting until very late. Ah Chee made almost all his money from high scores rounds 20-22 since he was vested a lot before he got hurt in the middle of the season. We really had 2 useful and 6 not very useful. Hmm, and the 2 useful ones were both 26, with the rest being 18-21.

There were nine who played in round 1. Sheed and Salem barely made it past $150,000 and I doubt their owners were happy with how they came out. Salem got hurt and scored 16 in week 7, which meant selling for not enough or holding until he came back and played in Rs 21-22, which I am sure about nobody did. But his being hurt did not make him a bad pick. Sheed on the other hand, played 20 matches and averaged 71, so was a cheap backup, and has some good scores. He probably could have been sold for more than his final price at some point in the season. But I would not have been happy with him as a cow.

So, nine left. How many of them were good cows?   Heeney was a good pick who got injured. He did well when he came back but would have been a bad downgrade target. So good eye but bad luck if you picked him. The remaining eight all were good. Cam Ellis-Yolmen has some injury issues but had grown a lot before them and could have been sold for good value, especially if you sold before his last match in which he scored 15. I don’t think I need to go over the rest of them, as we all ought to know their stories. So, eight good cows plus 2 equals ten good cows for the season. (!!!)

I had expected more somehow. Dang.

R1 Cows at age:  18  19  20  21  22  23

                             1    1    3    1    2     1

Well, that’s interesting too.

How did they do average-wise? One at 65, one at 96, and 9 in the 70s. I wonder if we can expect good young players who end up playing regularly to get around 75?  I’m thinking yes, with a few exceptions to be expected.

So, what have we learned?  First, not a lot of players go up in price more than $150,000 or $200,000 and be worth buying.  There were not a lot of cows, especially if you exclude mid pricers. There were few cows who did not play round 1 and the ones who did were both older. The ones who started round 1 and looked good were 18-23 with most being 20-22.

Oh, positions, almost forgot. For the R1 guys: 2 x D, 1 x DM, 5 x M, 1 x FM, 1 x F.  For the latecomers: 1 x FM, 1 x F.  Gosh, 7 of the 10 were classified as Midfielders, nobody is surprised.

I should say that past performances do not necessarily predict future events. Just because someone this season looks good but does not fit with the patterns above does not mean to avoid them; especially with Essendon players.

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Author: Father Dougal

First time player, new to both Supercoach and the AFL. Having fun though! Now a second time player. Let's see if I learned anything! Oh, I learned a little. Now a third year player and running out of excuses.



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10 thoughts on “Cow Supply”

  1. Good article mate, however I think it would more relevant if instead of end price you used max price, as cash cows are traded out for cash, not held all year and general trades out when their b/e gets high, etc. Be interesting to see if that gave you more cows than the end price figures did. Thanks for the article tho, a couple of those figures really suprised me!! Another interesting read on sctalk!

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  2. It certainly is very interesting reading. Obviously (or obliviously) I have set my bar too low, all this time.

    Any idea how I find out what the total team value of the winner (or even nickoless, sodes or Andy B, who all finished very highly)?

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