From the Book of Dougal: 3-22
And t’will come to pass that after the bountiful years of the giant suns, all will seem lost. Yet, when the black clouds with the red of the setting sun shining through seem a harbinger of doom, they will instead bring forth one last crop, easy to select and harvest. But glad wilt beest those those who avoid the Steele trap and do not let themselves become complacent and entitled, for the cycle ever turns, lean times following the fat, Dragon following the Phoenix. Cats and dogs will live together and Shub-Moogurdraft, the Black Cow of the Pasture with a Hundred and One Young Which are not Canine but in Fact Bovine, shall arise as the stars align. As the ides of March fade into the past, the infected digit shalt beest flipped, the truth of the exsufflicate byre shall become clear, and those who follow the way of muskets and novices shall lament “Buggre Alle This” and, falling from grace, embark upon the path of bargain insanity, which is like unto cutting their own throats. Mourn those who fail to balance the scales twixt traditional wisdom and necessity and thus endure the Milkman Dan Experience. All wilt appeareth black, but wilt actually beest a very very very very very very very dark blue. The Cowpocalypse shalt beest upon those folk and none shalt escape.
Is that my cow? I know there have to be cows around here somewhere, happy trees, happy cows….
Mate, you are really losing it
How can I not? I’m trying to do a nice, normal guns and rookies, a sane one, not one with a dozen playing rookies, but Nooooooo, I can’t find enough cows to manage it!
Maybe your standards are too high?
Ha! All I want is decent job security without paying over $200,000. Key position player, no problem, as long as they just play a position. I can’t find enough! My team as revealed is gonna end up lining the hamster’s cage. There are lots of trap cows, who may start once or twice, but then languish as nothing but permanent loopholes, constant reminders of what could have been…..
It can’t be *that* bad
Yes it can, look for yourself!
Ok, it is that bad. My.
Yeah….I can’t…I just can’t. My beautiful team, all ruined by lack of cows….wibble…Pencils up the nose, underpants on the head, wibble!
What do you mean wibble?!?
I’m not writing about this. It’s too painful. See, watch me not write.
Ok, an interesting concept that is perhaps invalidated by the fact that this is being read. Ha! I’ve run rings around you logically.
No you haven’t.
Yes. I am not, in fact, writing Cow Talk this week.
Nope, you are!
You heard me, it’s my turn to interject witty repartee! Your turn to write the content.
….Look, this has to get done. You *know* what happens when the Motts is displeased! (All Hail Motts! Oh wise and merciful Motts!)
(sound of crickets)
Okay, right, here I go then…..
As we all know there is a shortage of quality cows this season. We have been spoiled by all the extra ones from GWS and the Suns, and last season the top-ups and the Bombers getting game time into every rookie they could, since winning was off the table for them. Now we have what may be more normal, meaning having a severe shortage of inexpensive rookies who are pretty much sure to play and make us some money and points. Huttabito’s excellent write-ups show fewer rookies who also scored a lot worse over the pre-season then last year. My own reading shows a lot of players who are going to be named round one may not stick around long enough to rise much in price. So what to do?
First, we need to try and minimize the number of cows we need. Second, we need to be willing to pay a bit more than in the past, and third we need to be ready for bad news over the course of week one, and have plans for dealing with that bad news.
We know it’s coming! It always does….
So nice of you to interrupt my train of thought! Um, yeah, anyways, three ways to cope.
Unlike Father Dougal, I’m going to give some concrete advice, and not just data to help you think!
You heard me priest-boy. My advice is to stick to no more than four rookies on each line, aside from rucks. For rucks; one if you count Witts as a rookie and none if you don’t. Use the R3 for the Lukehole since there are currently no rookie rucks with any job security. (Stupid infected finger.) That means two on field rookies in defense and forward, and just one in the mids. We should be able to come up with four per line that have a decent chance of staying on the pitch for a while.
In order to stick to just four per line, we need to have four non-rookies up front and in back, and seven in the mids. Since there is no way to afford fifteen premiums, that means it’s time for fallen premiums, and perhaps even mid-priced madness.
Blasphemer!!!!! Dear god, what have I done! Once in a lifetime….
Difficult times call for difficult measures. Speaking of which, time to fix up your team…..
Oh yeah. So, I see you already have four non-rookies in back. (Shaw, Howe, Laird, Z Williams) so that’s ok. Now in front you have five rookies, one too many. That means we need to upgrade one, and to do that we are going to need to downgrade a premium somewhere. JPK looks expendable, I hear rumors he’s not so good before the byes anyways.
Now, looking over this fine site filled with useful information (Thank the wise and merciful Motts!) I see that there are some decent players returning from injuries that we can pick at a hefty discount. So JPK turns into O’Meara, and one of those cheap rookies turns into Roughead. That even leaves us with some cash leftover.
(Lengthy period of fiddling with cows and reading Huttabito’s posts, while ignoring a certain someone’s babbling)
Ok, so in back we have ended up with Hampton, Otten, Stewart, and Guthrie. And yes, Guthrie is a risk but I think a tolerable one. And, there is only $8,300 left over so no way to upgrade him anyway. If he spuds up at least he costs the minimum and plays Sundays a decent amount. Being so cheap he also needs less time to make decent cash.
In the Mids we have Sam Power-Pepper on the field with Barrett, Pickett, and Parfitt in reserve, who I picked because I couldn’t resist the lovely symmetry of their last names all ending in “tt”.
Kidding, they are all have decent job security, assuming Barrett gets elevated. They may not be big earners but they should be earners at least.
Up front you now have McCarthy, Florent, Simpkin, and Eddy. The extra cash went to pay for Florent and Simpkin, both of whom look to have better job security than any of the cheaper forward cows, aside from Eddy who we have. Florent also links us to Parfitt and Pickett in the mids, which really helps with backing up the forward/ruck lines. While their cost will slow up their profit-making, it won’t be as bad as a $200,000+ cow, and they seem to have that all important job security.
So, one careful downgrade and one upgrade and we are looking at a much better cow situation. Points early on may be a bit better, and there will still be some cash between the two. If Roughy works out he may not need a trade, although if not we are a trade down. O’Meara will need a trade for sure but so would the rookie that went away.
If you need less money, one path would be to downgrade a known premium to a probable premium.
(more incoherent sputtering)
T Mitchell, for example, could have replaced JPK and brought in some cash, but for FD’s team it would not have been enough to upgrade someone. Maybe for another team it might. More than one such downgrade is probably a bad idea though.
The last part is being ready for bad news. There are four groups of cows, one per day of round 1.
On Thursday we have to lock in any Tigers and Blues. If you are happy with any players from those teams, or if you are trying to fill up a line needing a lot of cows, it could be hard to do without some Blue Tiger like substances. The biggest guess is Marchbank, who has great job security but costs a lot and may not earn much. (Opinions vary.) If you need three playing rookies on defense it is hard to go without him.
On Friday we lock in Magpies and Bulldogs. Bzzt, thanks for playing, apparently there are no good options from them. (Check with Huttabito to be sure.)
On Saturday, we get to make the hard choices. Swans, Power, Saints, Demons, Suns, Lions, Bombers, Hawks. So to start, there are hardly any defensive rookies from those teams. In a way good, since you can see all Sunday before deciding, but it does leave that line unsettled going into the last day. There are, however, a decent number of midfield and forward rookies we find out about. Knowing who will start for the Power will be a big deal, although other than Eddy their security of starts is not well known. Before the start of play, if enough forward and midfield rookies are named, it may be possible to reverse the trades I talked about and go with three on field forwards, but that would mean most or all of the rookies who we don’t know about ending up playing round one. Wigg and Miles both named would help us a lot. Don’t plan on that happening though. AFL coaches are rarely so kind. And I’m not really sure how safe they would be anyways.
On Sunday, we find out about the Roos, Eagles, Crows, Giants, Dockers, and Cats. Most of the defensive cows come from those teams, so much shuffling can happen. If you have four spots left in back still, we can probably fill them with two possible cows each from the Crows, Cats and Roos. Since Hampton is going to start barring injury, that means three spots needing to be filled from five possible players. Well, plus anyone unexpected from the other teams, but let’s not count on that. Up front there are not many forwards from Sunday and two are the expensive McCarthy and Simpkin, so don’t leave more open spots than there will be Sunday forwards! Parfitt is the not expensive Sunday forward, who can also play in the mids. If you have ended up short a forward or mid, there is an emergency backup idea, which it is to take Josh Deluca-Cardillo as a probably permanent $102,400 loophole. He is a Fwd-Mid and plays for the Dockers, so would be fine as a loophole, and if Preuss is named you could take him is place of Strnadica. You would lose the often important Fwd-Ruck swing thing, but it is an option. Hopefully nobody will end up with JDC as the best option, but you never know.
It may be that the gods will bless us with unexpected cows, and this will all be made irrelevant. Nothing so happy as unneeded disaster planning. Perhaps being ready will ward it off.
Ha! As if!
Well, we can hope that happens, but all those who have faced the perils of Supercoach know the gods love to mess with us.
Thus ends my first, and judging from FD’s expression, only, try at writing Cow Talk. At the least it beat several pages of “Wibble, wibble, out of cheese error, banana” repeated over and over!
Oh, and don’t wait until the last minute to try and make changes to your team. Assume the Supercoach site is going to crash and get your team in early. Every day.
(The deadline has been made, there is content, good content….? Motts is merciful, all hail Motts the Wise and Merciful!)
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