Cow Talk – Rd4

Written by Father Dougal on April 20 2017

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

Last week we discussed “Father Dougal’s Two Stages of Cow Growth” and “Father Dougal’s Three Guidelines for Selling Cows.” This week we will look at last season’s cows and see how theory and practice interacted.

Repeated from last weeks post:

Raw and Ripe. A cow is Ripe when it’s current price is high enough that a high score results in a high price. A cow is Raw when it’s current price is too low for a high sore to result in a high price.

Guideline #1 – “Sell when you need the money.” Our goal is points, not cash. If selling today means you get the cash you need to do something important, than by all means sell before the cow hits full growth. An classic example is if you want to buy a fallen premium and they are going to go up in price more than the cow will. You would not only end up with less money, you would also miss out of the points. We already know you want to be full-premo as fast as possible, so if selling a cow now helps with that, then sell!

Guideline #2 – “Sell when you have a downgrade target worth the cash you will miss by selling early.” As the season goes on there will be fewer and fewer good downgrade targets. When one shows up, it may be worth it to give up some growth on a cow you have in order to get a fancy new cow that will make you a lot of cash later, especially if they also are scoring well and can provide good backup. A cow on the bubble could go up $50-$80,000 while the cow you have goes up $20,000.  You’d get less cash a round later if that happened!

Guideline #3 – “Sell at the start of the third round after a ripe cow has a high score, unless the cow has another high score during the intervening rounds.” So, if a ripe cow has a high score during R7, you would sell at the start of R10, since the cow would benefit from all three price changes with that high score in the price change calculation. But, if the cow has another high score on R9, then you would wait and sell at the start of R12, so you get the benefit of the R9 high score as well. If you need the money and the cow has an easily achievable break even at the start of the third round after, you can risk keeping and hoping for more growth, but that won’t be the case most of the time.”

I didn’t realize the below graphics would be something I’d end up sharing when I did them, so my apologies for the colors choices being a bit weird. Key below, followed but examples and write-ups.

Highest
2nd Pair
3rd Pair
Non Match with Highest

 

Weitering is pretty much the poster boy for Guideline #3. He had a big 129 and hit his peak three rounds later. If you held him, which #3 says not to, he had another peak after his next big score, but that was R15.

Weitering
Round Price Score
1 $220,800 87
2 $220,800 68
3 $220,800 129
4 $289,100 73
5 $333,300 61
6 $363,400 23
7 $338,400
8 $338,400
9 $338,400 38
10 $302,900 59
11 $275,600 121
12 $299,000 58
13 $324,700
14 $324,700 70
15 $347,500 49
16 $333,700 36
17 $313,300 55
18 $290,600 65
19 $280,500 58
20 $282,500 72
21 $291,300 71
22 $300,200 85
23 $318,600 75

 

Anthony McD-T was still Raw when he scored his season high. He could have been sold anytime #1 or #2 came into play, but he had a high score three rounds before his Bye, which was very considerate of him, and hit his top price at the perfect time.

A McD-T
Round Price Score
1 $102,400 50
2 $102,400 84
3 $102,400 71
4 $166,600 106
5 $238,800 65
6 $284,100 53
7 $309,500 86
8 $318,400 70
9 $327,300 96
10 $352,100 82
11 $368,300 80
12 $384,800
13 $384,800 74
14 $384,200
15 $384,200 37
16 $366,800 100
17 $362,200 53
18 $348,400 71
19 $352,500 53
20 $334,600 66
21 $327,100 81
22 $325,800 51
23 $324,100 87

 

Adams has his high R2, so it made him ripe fast but he hit his peak at the not predicted R14. It looks like the ideal time to sell him would have been as soon as he was injured, although at his bye would have been fine if you could have waited that long.

M Adams
Round Price Score
1 $117,300 82
2 $117,300 135
3 $117,300 97
4 $226,000 72
5 $301,800 80
6 $333,900 63
7 $342,400 77
8 $349,700
9 $349,700
10 $349,700 84
11 $355,900 85
12 $370,400
13 $370,400 62
14 $371,500
15 $371,500 50
16 $360,200
17 $360,200

 

I would not blame anyone for giving up on Dea after his 95 from R3 was done pushing up him, but if you did hold and hope he hit is price high three weeks after his season high R9, with another well timed at the bye peak.

M Dea
Round Price Score
1 $183,600 61
2 $183,600 87
3 $183,600 95
4 $243,500 73
5 $293,000 41
6 $309,600 39
7 $296,900 79
8 $289,200 88
9 $304,400 126
10 $353,400 60
11 $380,700 48
12 $383,400 94
13 $370,900
14 $370,900
15 $370,900 75
16 $368,600 59
17 $371,100 59
18 $356,200 67
19 $341,100 84
20 $340,700 56
21 $338,900 109
22 $355,800 53
23 $354,700 126

 

Despite his being a slow burner, Brown ended up hitting a decent high after his 96. Might be something to keep in mind regarding our current slow burners.

M Brown
Round Price Score
1 $117,300 42
2 $117,300 72
3 $117,300 38
4 $154,100 57
5 $187,900 51
6 $203,900 88
7 $237,800 96
8 $279,200 29
9 $300,100 83
10 $312,600 46
11 $299,500 29
12 $290,100 66
13 $275,400 59
14 $268,400
15 $268,400 54
16 $276,400 71
17 $283,900 71
18 $293,700 54
19 $300,300
20 $300,300 130
21 $330,500 109
22 $368,900 78
23 $407,500 67

 

Parrish had a rather pointless high value R21. He put up good points for 4 weeks, then slowed down and got hurt. His high score again came while he was raw, but being high priced to start with it at least got him ripe fast. He’s a good example of why expensive cows are bad for profit. His price rose to good for a cheap cow but not so good for an expensive cow. Best time to sell him would have been when he got hurt.

Parrish
Round Price Score
1 $202,800 69
2 $202,800 97
3 $202,800 83
4 $260,400 83
5 $309,100 54
6 $326,500 65
7 $331,100
8 $331,100 79
9 $331,800 50
10 $329,800 67
11 $328,900 59
12 $319,700 76
13 $324,000 53
14 $318,800
15 $318,800 53
16 $314,700 80
17 $313,000 74
18 $319,800 93
19 $341,700 73
20 $354,200 76
21 $364,100
22 $364,100 68
23 $360,400 91

 

While his actual high was late in the season, #3 has him sold R8 for his useful high. Another cow to expensive to make a good profit from. (I have no idea what all the yellow is for. I am sure it meant something to me at the time.)

Mills
Round Price Score
1 $211,800 71
2 $211,800 68
3 $211,800 56
4 $243,000 84
5 $271,800 94
6 $305,100 70
7 $335,700 36
8 $335,900 59
9 $320,700 75
10 $311,100 69
11 $318,300
12 $318,300 74
13 $330,100 89
14 $342,500
15 $342,500 92
16 $364,400 102
17 $392,200 82
18 $408,100 76
19 $411,900 74
20 $402,000 78
21 $392,800 91
22 $392,500 104
23 $405,500

 

An interesting one, as #3 has him sold R8, which while not his actual high would have been a great time to sell for useful cash. If you held him because you wanted his scoring, then you could have used the “another high score” bit of #3 to get his real season high, but at R15. The “best” time to sell him might have been at his bye, when he had made a lot of cash and you would have benefited from his good scores. I note he did not keep up the scoring, and holding him hoping he’s keep scoring well was a big fail. I of course did that….

Kerridge
Round Price Score
1 $137,600 86
2 $137,600 106
3 $137,600 65
4 $215,700 78
5 $269,700 115
6 $314,100 65
7 $346,800 82
8 $371,500 67
9 $368,700 105
10 $383,400 68
11 $387,800 126
12 $417,300 81
13 $427,900
14 $427,900 81
15 $440,200 55
16 $419,500 61
17 $394,800 101
18 $384,100 45
19 $371,200 71
20 $365,700 41
21 $335,300 46
22 $313,400
23 $313,400 67

 

His great first two scores did nothing but help him get ripe. Would have been great later on, but meant little so early. Mostly mislead people (like me) into thinking he might do that again. I would not have seen that 83 as his high score at the time, and in practice I think he gets sold at his bye, at close to his peak.

Kennedy
Round Price Score
1 $187,800 115
2 $187,800 105
3 $187,800 50
4 $258,600 64
5 $288,200 54
6 $287,900 69
7 $295,900 89
8 $312,000 77
9 $334,100 81
10 $354,800 29
11 $343,400
12 $343,400 94
13 $342,300 40
14 $321,200
15 $321,200 67
16 $324,900 45
17 $305,500 49
18 $294,100
19 $294,100

 

Well, #3 would have worked for him if you saw the 96 as a high score. If not his injury would have made it clear that selling was called for.

McCarthy
Round Price Score
1 $139,400 43
2 $139,400 66
3 $139,400 96
4 $193,900
5 $193,900 79
6 $250,500 44
7 $282,500 15
8 $269,300
9 $269,300
10 $269,300
11 $269,300 50
12 $246,300 38
13 $226,400 37
14 $220,000 69
15 $224,600
16 $224,600 30
17 $224,800 66
18 $236,900 48
19 $236,000 44
20 $241,200
21 $241,200 61
22 $242,700 55
23 $246,900 88

 

His actual peak was late, and his best score before the byes weren’t very good. But since his was cheap, you would still have made good money on him even if you waited for his bye. I don’t know if we could have told his 83 would fit a #3 high, but he only dropped $6,000 from that high to the bye.

Hartley
Round Price Score
1 $117,300
2 $117,300 86
3 $117,300 53
4 $117,300 44
5 $167,800 79
6 $202,300 83
7 $241,100 62
8 $276,900 72
9 $300,200 63
10 $307,800 19
11 $294,200
12 $294,200
13 $294,200 55
14 $274,800
15 $274,800 46
16 $255,100 111
17 $280,700 67
18 $303,700 62
19 $326,900 61
20 $321,600 56
21 $312,800 69
22 $309,200 81
23 $315,400 80

 

While his max is predicted by #3, selling before he missed R10 would have been fine, as would have keeping and selling before his bye at max price. He is another reminder that an $300,00oish max price is not so bad for a cheap cow.

Byrne
Round Price Score
1 $123,900
2 $123,900
3 $123,900 67
4 $123,900 67
5 $123,900 76
6 $185,000 75
7 $233,600 64
8 $267,300 49
9 $280,300 112
10 $305,600
11 $305,600 49
12 $317,500 48
13 $325,500
14 $325,500 64
15 $309,300 71
16 $308,300

 

A nice example of Raw/Ripe and #3 working together. Scored a 103 his third match while raw, but followed up with a 100 two rounds later to get him to $323,000, which would have been a fine place to sell him. His 88 moved him a smidge higher but that would not have been worth waiting for.

Byrne-Jones
Round Price Score
1 $123,900
2 $123,900
3 $123,900 61
4 $123,900 97
5 $123,900 103
6 $207,600 70
7 $273,300 100
8 $322,200 31
9 $326,500 57
10 $323,200 88
11 $315,200 73
12 $328,100 62
13 $339,500 49
14 $328,400
15 $328,400 70
16 $321,400 67
17 $317,900 54
18 $316,400 44
19 $303,300 51
20 $286,500 36
21 $266,200 52
22 $254,800 60
23 $250,500 51

 

Best score week 1, what a trap. Slow, slow burn, eventually topping out short of $300,000. Could have sold anytimes you got fed up, or waited for his bye.

Hewett
Round Price Score
1 $123,900 96
2 $123,900 48
3 $123,900 19
4 $163,800
5 $163,800 70
6 $182,100 59
7 $200,300 57
8 $230,000 54
9 $244,800 87
10 $267,500 63
11 $286,700 11
12 $282,000
13 $282,000 51
14 $260,600
15 $260,600 68
16 $249,000 63
17 $263,000 30
18 $263,000 53
19 $256,000 63
20 $250,700 55
21 $257,500 60
22 $265,500 59
23 $269,700 65

 

Amazing back-loaded season.  I had him and considered him not worth trading out, and eventually he threw a 90 and #3 applied and some profit. Or you could have kept him and gotten some decent cow scores that would have let to late cash. Better to have gotten the cash at his bye.

R Davis
Round Price Score
1 $102,400 57
2 $102,400 63
3 $102,400 51
4 $151,500 37
5 $178,900
6 $178,900 33
7 $186,000
8 $186,000
9 $186,000 66
10 $196,900 90
11 $228,200 84
12 $273,900 65
13 $306,700
14 $306,700 32
15 $304,400 85
16 $304,200 84
17 $311,800 78
18 $336,500 82
19 $352,600 64
20 $355,200 96
21 $364,800 54
22 $359,400 74
23 $360,000 33

 

Another example of costly cow cash crapout. Never really a good time to sell, best at the bye.

Oliver
Round Price Score
1 $207,300 75
2 $207,300 60
3 $207,300 90
4 $253,100 41
5 $271,700
6 $271,700
7 $271,700 83
8 $294,900 49
9 $294,100 82
10 $310,900
11 $310,900 69
12 $317,000 55
13 $323,800 41
14 $308,600
15 $308,600
16 $308,600
17 $308,600
18 $308,600
19 $308,600
20 $308,600 98
21 $309,800 88
22 $325,000 83
23 $354,500

 

Started late, made his money late. Selling at the bye would have been fine.

J Smith
Round Price Score
1 $102,400
2 $102,400
3 $102,400
4 $102,400
5 $102,400 72
6 $102,400 96
7 $102,400 49
8 $171,500 83
9 $227,400 67
10 $255,100 78
11 $288,200 65
12 $304,800 42
13 $305,600
14 $305,600 93
15 $311,900 70
16 $319,800 61
17 $333,500 33
18 $316,000 75
19 $304,800 108
20 $316,800 89
21 $349,900 56
22 $365,600 128
23 $385,900 46

 

His 102 got him ripe, and then sell at the bye.

Cox
Round Price Score
1 $117,300
2 $117,300
3 $117,300
4 $117,300
5 $117,300 75
6 $117,300 67
7 $117,300 24
8 $159,900 102
9 $203,300 62
10 $232,600 47
11 $264,000 64
12 $270,600 49
13 $269,400
14 $269,400 72
15 $278,700 47
16 $279,100
17 $279,100
18 $279,100
19 $279,100
20 $279,100 42
21 $273,900

 

Wow, Mr #3. Took forever to get ripe, than POW! he plays Brisbane, gets “pulling a Menadue” named after him, and hits his peak.

Menadue
Round Price Score
1 $155,400 80
2 $155,400 63
3 $155,400 31
4 $192,000 58
5 $209,300 36
6 $210,400 52
7 $220,500 54
8 $225,300 33
9 $227,700 46
10 $226,300
11 $226,300
12 $226,300
13 $226,300
14 $226,300 130
15 $257,700 50
16 $289,200 71
17 $322,900 32
18 $303,400
19 $303,400
20 $303,400
21 $303,400
22 $303,400 63
23 $293,800

 

The 105 got him ripe and the 89 got him at a nice place at the bye. The last start meant waiting for  max growth not worth it.

Petracca
Round Price Score
1 $123,900
2 $123,900
3 $123,900
4 $123,900
5 $123,900
6 $123,900 63
7 $123,900 86
8 $123,900 61
9 $184,300 105
10 $246,800 51
11 $277,200 89
12 $312,100 89
13 $330,400 73
14 $351,100
15 $351,100 53
16 $353,100 52
17 $337,700 84
18 $330,000 101
19 $344,800 77
20 $366,100 63
21 $372,300 57
22 $357,400 74
23 $345,400 58

 

A slow burner you could have sold anytime you wanted the cash from him. At least starting at $102,400 you made some cash.

Ruggles
Round Price Score
1 $102,400
2 $102,400
3 $102,400 77
4 $102,400 40
5 $102,400 55
6 $152,100
7 $152,100 74
8 $186,900 57
9 $220,100 60
10 $246,300
11 $246,300 34
12 $247,900 81
13 $259,300 71
14 $270,700 91
15 $305,200
16 $305,200 53
17 $318,800 86
18 $334,100 56
19 $329,400 81
20 $337,800
21 $337,800 70
22 $336,600 51
23 $333,700 85

 

Came in really late. If you brought him in then using #3 on his 126 would have been fine.

Collins
Round Price Score
1 $117,300
2 $117,300
3 $117,300
4 $117,300
5 $117,300
6 $117,300
7 $117,300
8 $117,300
9 $117,300
10 $117,300 59
11 $117,300 100
12 $117,300 39
13 $173,500 59
14 $213,400 126
15 $254,900
16 $254,900 59
17 $294,600 58
18 $322,100 78
19 $320,700 61
20 $320,100 64
21 $322,200 75
22 $322,200 92
23 $335,900

 

No reason not to sell once hurt. Again, cheap start meant some profit. If you were willing to wait long enough #3 worked.

Papley
Round Price Score
1 $109,900 104
2 $109,900 109
3 $109,900 46
4 $196,100 24
5 $224,300 78
6 $231,700 64
7 $245,000 85
8 $281,000 29
9 $286,000
10 $286,000
11 $286,000
12 $286,000
13 $286,000
14 $286,000
15 $286,000
16 $286,000 65
17 $288,800 71
18 $283,700 38
19 $283,400 35
20 $269,700 73
21 $260,500 76
22 $270,300 39
23 $279,300 59

So, it looks like we should add one more guideline:

#4 – When in doubt, at his bye trade him out.

I note how often in the above write-ups cows topped out at $320,000. The cheap ones made good cash when that happened, and the expensive ones did not. I am going to remind myself of this before I slip up and bring in non-cheap cows next year. If you had Eddy and Butler and Houston you hit 2 of 3 and yay. If you tried to guess which one was safe and had Eddy and Florent and Turner, like me, all sad, even with Florent and Turner starting all matches so far. Lesson learned, I hope.

Next I’ll start in on projections and write ups. That will go on for as long as I can stand doing them they are useful.

For this week

While the rather large swings in the fortunes of so many teams has messed up the strength of schedule projections some, the ideas behind it still work. If your cow is about to play some dodgy teams, it bodes well for their future growth. I note than SPP had two good matches followed by two bad matches, and he played two dodgy teams followed by two good teams. Since three of his next four matches are against cow friendly opponents I would not write him off just yet. Before you trade cows out or in, double check who they have played and are about to play.

In the hopes of ruining his streak, I am pointing out that Oliver Florent has put up four consecutive scores in the 40’s. And by ruining his streak I did not mean he should drop into the 30’s, which, now that I think about it, is exactly what I just invited. I apologize to his other owners.

See you next week!

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10 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Rd4”

      1. I am going to hold him and hope he pulls a menadue around the byes.
        He hasnt even made enough money to bother downgrading him.

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  1. Cheers Father. Food for thought.

    This week provides me with a dilemma carrying Hibberd in DEF, Miles in MID and Eddy in FWD. No cash generation there so need to make some moves.

    I’m going to keep Eddy for now so what to do with Hibberd/Miles?

    TU – two trades this week going Hibberd-Williamson and Miles-Balic
    TD – trade one this week (Hibberd-Williamson) and the other next week (Miles-Fisher perhaps)
    Comment – save the Hibberd trade for EVW whose playing this weekend, meaning Miles-Balic this week?

    Doing my head in.

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  2. This is excellent. The amount of work you and the rest of the blokes on this site put in each week astounds me.
    Essential reading for a slow afternoon at work!

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    1. Thank you Father.

      So many numbers, How do you get time to pray?

      Let us pray for the wisdom sort our raw cows from our ripe cows, our playing cows from our bench cows and please don’t let Yeo score 120+ again.

      Amen.

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