Cow Talk – Rd5

Written by Father Dougal on April 27 2017

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

Over the last two weeks we discussed cow prices in theory and then looked at how that worked out in practice last season. Now, at last, it is time to look at this season’s cows! And I have to say, that is not as exciting as I had hoped. It is actually pretty early in the growing season and a lot of cows are still raw. I think I own most of those. But, we’ll take a look at the ones that seem worth looking at, and add in more each week as they ripen for slaughter.

Please note that the projections are educated guesses based on previous seasons and the data from supercoach. They are getting more educated each season, but are certainly not perfect. The numbers below are based on last season’s drop rate for the same round. Next week I’ll adjust based on how these went.  I’m expecting these to be a little on the high side, meaning 100s, based on last week, but the important thing is big changes in growth rates can be seen, for which the below numbers are more than adequate.

This season I am including past weeks and more weeks ahead. After spending all the time on growth patterns it would be silly not to include the data needed to see them! I have also put historical numbers in gray, so it is easy to see projections vs reality.

Defenders

Andy Otten – One way or another we’re going to be talking about this guy for a long time. He’s the 12th ranked defender right now. He has a better average than Heath Shaw, Alex Rance, and Kade Simpson!  Oh, and his first week’s 45 came when he was playing a different role. If we only look at the scores once he moved up front he’d be the 6th ranked defender. Right now I’d have a hard time trading him out. He could easily make another $100,000 before his bye. Of course if he does that we going to have to ask if he could be a season keeper. It is too soon to know, but unless he completely spuds up I’d hope/plan to hold onto him until his bye.  He plays a few weak teams before then too…. In any case I would not trade him this week. Too much money left in him and a chance he’ll be worth keeping. Which is amazing. If he was about to turn 20 I’d expect him to drop off, but he’s actually about to turn 28.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 45 123,900
2 108 123,900
3 98 123,900
4 98 203,800
5 101 286,300
6 90 344,300 Tigers
7 90 383,968 39,668 39,668 Roos
8 90 408,371 24,402 64,071 Demons
9 90 421,571 13,201 77,271 Lions
10 90 430,398 8,826 86,098 Dockers
11 90 436,525 6,127 92,225 Cats
12 90 441,354 4,829 97,054 Saints
13 90 444,396 3,041 100,096

 

Curtly Hampton – See that nice 103 highlighted in green? Remember guideline #3? (If not look up last week’s Cow Talk.) Unless he puts up another high score in round 6 or 7, he’ll be ready to sell at the start of week 8. I see he plays the Roos week 7, which could extend him to week 10. Of course he plays the Lions week 9, which could extend him to week 12….

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 50 160,000
2 64 160,000
3 84 160,000
4 52 206,800
5 103 242,100
6 70.6 285,700 Tigers
7 70.6 312,260 26,560 26,560 Roos
8 70.6 339,094 26,834 53,394 Demons
9 70.6 344,528 5,434 58,828 Lions
10 70.6 347,801 3,273 62,101 Dockers
11 70.6 349,914 2,113 64,214 Cats
12 70.6 351,726 1,811 66,026 Saints
13 70.6 352,652 926 66,952

 

Thomas Stewart – See that nice 70 highlighted in green?  Yeah, a bit sad to have a 70 highlighted, but look at the rest of his scores. Looks like #3 applies to him as well, not much growth left after R8, unless he puts up another good score. Since he plays the Pies and Suns next, that could certainly happen.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 57 117,300
2 60 117,300
3 22 117,300
4 53 148,900
5 70 170,300
6 52.4 190,700 Pies
7 52.4 219,527 28,827 28,827 Suns
8 52.4 239,783 20,256 49,083 Bombers
9 52.4 246,939 7,155 56,239 Dogs
10 52.4 251,684 4,746 60,984 Power
11 52.4 254,961 3,277 64,261 Crows
12 52.4 257,560 2,598 66,860

 

Andrew McGrath – See that nice 97 highlighted in green?  I sense a theme. So kind of the first few players we look at to work with #3 so well. He does have an 82 after the 97, and another score over his average could help him rise enough to matter for R8. Of course his starting price was high, so it may be his owners will want to hope for more, or will want his scores on the pitch, and we’ll know better based on what he does next week.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 83 211,800
2 56 211,800
3 62 211,800
4 97 246,500
5 82 278,100
6 76 313,200 Demons
7 76 345,754 32,554 32,554 Dockers
8 76 359,244 13,490 46,044 Cats
9 76 366,612 7,369 53,412 Eagles
10 76 371,262 4,650 58,062 Tigers
11 76 374,368 3,106 61,168 Giants
12 76 376,928 2,560 63,728 Power
13 76 378,376 1,448 65,176

 

Midfielders

Sam Powell-Pepper – Sam sure has not lived up to his pre-season hype. Such a nice start too. His BE is only 41, so there is not much risk in holding him, and if he does put up a good score this week it will count for the three rises before his bye. He does play the Lions next. Some total spud named Menadue played them last season and would up becoming a Supercoach legend. SPP has the potential to do the same. He’s made so little money I’d be slow to trade him out. Of course getting rid of him might be the most urgent thing to do with your team, in which case you are probably having a cracker of a season. While I hate the idea of benching a premium for the R9 bye, I don’t mind benching a rookie. If he keeps puttering along at 50 or 60, I will look at holding him through the “real” byes, since he will play in all of them. I will, of course, be hoping he’ll pop up with a good score and eventually make good cash. Sometimes a cow just isn’t worth a trade to get rid of, and the best use is to hold, use them as backup, and hope they pull a Menadue.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 78 135,300
2 90 135,300
3 51 135,300
4 41 198,000
5 55 227,500
6 63 233,800 Lions
7 63 244,078 10,278 10,278 Eagles
8 63 260,649 16,571 26,849 Suns
9 63 276,507 15,857 42,707
10 63 287,594 11,088 53,794 Cats
11 63 295,505 7,911 61,705 Hawks
12 63 301,543 6,038 67,743 Bombers
13 63 305,634 4,091 71,834 Lions

Sam Petrevski-Seton – Yikes! Guideline #3 says sell him this week. He has four crap scores and one big one, which was three rounds ago. He has to average over 60 to end up at his current price at his bye. Throw out his good match and he is averaging 52. His BE is 76 (!)  Obviously he could put up another big score, and if you have faith that he will, then, well, I can’t very well tell someone not to have faith now can I….

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 59 189,300
2 51 189,300
3 119 189,300
4 49 240,900
5 49 274,400
6 65.4 298,400 Swans
7 65.4 293,838 -4,562 -4,562 Pies
8 65.4 296,804 2,966 -1,596 Saints
9 65.4 306,383 9,578 7,983 Dockers
10 65.4 312,786 6,403 14,386 Roos
11 65.4 317,230 4,445 18,830

Rucks

By the cathodes of St. Vidicon, not only do we have two rucking cows in the ruck section this week, there are as many ruck cows as midfield cows this week! Both of those are firsts. I for one, am happy to see a few tall cows for a change.

Jarrod Witts – Joining Otten in the “Might actually be worth keeping past his bye club” is many people’s R2, Mr. Witts. He’s only averaging 1.6 less then Sandilands, many people’s R1. His R9 bye is a pain, but it may coincide with his price rising slowing up. Or he could put up a few more high scores and have more to make at the time. As a cow on the pitch, he is doing better than any cow but Otten, and I would be surprised if upgrading him in place of a cow scoring fewer points for you was the priority for most teams. If he does well and I have forward backup at the time I am wondering if he is worth keeping as R2 through the real byes, although replacing him with a premium ruck who has already has his bye might work too. We’ll know better in a few rounds.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 81 217,600
2 100 217,600
3 114 217,600
4 79 292,800
5 91 347,000
6 93 383,300 Roos
7 93 401,193 17,893 17,893 Cats
8 93 419,288 18,095 35,988 Power
9 93 433,636 14,348 50,336
10 93 443,282 9,645 59,982 Demons
11 93 450,001 6,719 66,701 Eagles
12 93 455,275 5,274 71,975 Hawks
13 93 458,627 3,352 75,327 Blues

Braydon Preuss– It looks like he really was rested last week, since he did not play in the VFL. And with Goldy’s injury issues he could get more solo ruck time, and he does like him some solo rucking. Who doesn’t after all? Well, ok, some poor blokes playing for the Demons probably aren’t looking forward to the next two months, but proper rucks sure do well on their own. I feel his current average is misleading and that as long as he is getting good ruck time he’ll make some money. I certainty would hold him and see.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 44 123,900
2 111 123,900
3 87 123,900
4 60 199,700
5 262,700
6 75.5 262,700
7 75.5 294,025 31,325 31,325 Crows
8 75.5 311,890 17,865 49,190 Swans
9 75.5 330,931 19,041 68,231 Demons
10 75.5 345,062 14,131 82,362 Blues
11 75.5 354,734 9,672 92,034 Lions
12 75.5 361,547 6,813 98,847 Tigers

Forwards

Will Hoskin Elliot – He has made some fast cash, and fast cash is good cash. He could easily slow up his growing now; his BE of 69 is pretty high. If you can use his cash to good purpose, then Guideline #1 says cash him in and use it. Of course if you have other priorities, his next five matches include the Blues, Hawks, and Lions, and any of them could let up another big score. And WOW is it odd to be lumping the Hawks in with the Lions and Blues as teams good for cows to face. I can imagine by R9 they could pull themselves together. I can also imagine them falling apart and playing their own rookies. I have no idea which if either will happen. In a few rounds I’ll update the Strength of Schedule to reflect the massive, unexpected changes this year….

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 88 213,300
2 120 213,300
3 71 213,300
4 70 282,500
5 51 325,200
6 80 326,200 Cats
7 80 331,221 5,021 5,021 Blues
8 80 338,276 7,055 12,076 Gaints
9 80 356,498 18,222 30,298 Hawks
10 80 369,157 12,659 42,957 Lions
11 80 378,155 8,998 51,955 Dockers
12 80 385,053 6,898 58,853 Demons
13 80 389,681 4,627 63,481

 

Daniel Butler – I hate that I ended up with Florent and Turner in place of Butler and Houston. Season defining screw-up. Next season I know to take the cheap guys even if there is reason to worry about the job security…. Anyways, he sure has done well. He is still raw and has a lot of growing left to do before it will make sense to harvest him.  It might very well make sense to hold him until his bye.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 96 123,900
2 75 123,900
3 79 123,900
4 64 198,800
5 64 239,700
6 75.6 269,600 Crows
7 75.6 290,510 20,910 20,910 Dogs
8 75.6 310,130 19,620 40,530 Dockers
9 75.6 329,854 19,724 60,254 Giants
10 75.6 343,675 13,821 74,075 Bombers
11 75.6 353,548 9,873 83,948 Roos
12 75.6 361,073 7,525 91,473

 

Dan Houston – Having a great year and he plays the Lions next and the Suns two weeks after that! There could be a lot more cash in him, not just the $50k-ish predicted below. On R9 we’ll know if he is set for any more big rises or is ready for the slaughterhouse. Or is that slaughterhaus?  I suppose only Bulldog cows go to that….

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 72 117,300
2 81 117,300
3 68 117,300
4 68 185,500
5 73 233,900
6 72.4 266,300 Lions
7 72.4 292,452 26,152 26,152 Eagles
8 72.4 312,721 20,269 46,421 Suns
9 72.4 327,484 14,764 61,184
10 72.4 337,660 10,175 71,360 Cats
11 72.4 344,857 7,198 78,557 Hawks
12 72.4 350,407 5,549 84,107 Bombers
13 72.4 354,082 3,675 87,782 Lions

 

Brandan Parfitt– Had his big green number just a bit too early to take full advantage of it. Got him ripe at least. Without another big score he’s kinda ready. Of course he plays the Pies and then the Suns, so useful growth is certainly possible. His BE is only 39, so there is little risk is seeing what he does this week. There may not be enough room for all the Cat cows next week, which could make things interesting. If he loses his job I’d sell ASAP.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 44 117,300
2 36 117,300
3 99 117,300
4 52 166,700
5 51 205,600
6 56.4 242,900 Pies
7 56.4 250,990 8,090 8,090 Suns
8 56.4 258,078 7,089 15,178 Bombers
9 56.4 265,782 7,704 22,882 Dogs
10 56.4 270,892 5,109 27,992 Power
11 56.4 274,421 3,529 31,521 Crows
12 56.4 277,218 2,798 34,318

 

Other cow stuff:  If you think I missed anyone important please let me know in the comments. A lot of cows are just too far from being ripe to have their numbers run yet. I do traditionally miss someone each year, and if there is a ruckus raised for someone I’ll get them added before the lockout.

Downgrade targets have a lot of influence on when we sell. It may be that the availability of good bubble players will drive sell or hold decisions as much as ripeness of the cows you want to downgrade. I am not afraid to bring in someone with high job security a week early. Injury can happen but at least you get the cash. Last week Fisher worked out for those managers who got him in, and Spencer did not, due to his being hurt. Both were ok decisions since neither was at much risk of losing their job to anything other than injury. Check the wonderful Rookie Reviews for advice about job security. Bringing in someone after one week who does not have high JS and does not even get a third match is really, really annoying.

Looking back I am amazed at how little time I spent on BEs and averages. With the new approach they seem less important than in the past. We’ll see how that goes as the season progresses. While BE and average stuff went down, specific advice seems to have gone up. I’m feeling more confident about that. But, don’t forget the Craggy Island guarantee, all predictions wrong or double your money back!

 

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13 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Rd5”

    1. He’s:
      – Making Money (~70k left)
      – Scoring decently (Average 77)
      – Rock Solid Job Security

      Pretty low priority at the moment for me. Will probably go in a few weeks once Adams bottoms out or something.

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      1. If Balic is named and Newman is back I’m thinking of a cash grab?

        I can swing stinky Hibberd back with Stewart on my bench.

        This would allow me to turn Roughie into any Mid or Forward under.

        $585.500

        I’m sure I will have bigger fish to fry when Teams are named.

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  1. Just a side note , is everyone getting the boobshakalaka adverts on this page? Or do I have some sort of porno virus on my phone?

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    1. No Joestar but there are a hell of a lot of Russian singles dying to meet with me. If only i could find the time!

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    2. That’s what ad-blockers are for… it’s only when I visit this site from a public terminal that I realise how dodgy some of the ads on here are. It is obviously the fault of the ad networks rather than the SCT admins, but it’s still less than ideal.

      Ad networks have some pretty sophisticated surveillance infrastructure that follows you around the internet these days, so if you’ve been looking at porn you will often get porn-related ads. Of course, you can still end up with pornographic ads even without having looked at porn, because the ad networks combine a huge amount of data collection with some fairly sophisticated machine learning on the backend, and as such know a lot about you – they can typically infer your gender, age, sexual orientation, relationship status, income, social status, political affiliations, favourite brand of toilet paper, and goodness knows what else. That information is often sold to third parties, and is used in the automated, real-time ad auctions that determine what ads you’re going to see when you load the page.

      If this kind of tracking freaks you out at all, you should look at installing a tracker-blocking browser extension like Disconnect (but not its rival, Ghostery, because that particular extension conducts its own tracking and sells your information to third parties). This won’t block the ads – like I said before, that’s what ad-blockers are for – but it will protect your privacy. With that being said, you could go through all of this and still end up getting pornographic/Russian dating/otherwise dodgy ads, simply because those kinds of ads pay so well, and so are able to outbid more legitimate advertisers at the aforementioned auctions.

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      1. Even knowing all that I still think it’s funny that I get afl fantasy or gambling ads pretty much everywhere else (draft stars etc) and porno or health insurance ads on sct.

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      2. The problem is they don’t seem to track very well. Sure, I frequent heaps of porn sites, but they are all midget porn.

        I guess some of those midgets could be russian ladies.

        Sloppy database work guys. If you can’t target your porn ads properly no wonder you have to mass spam everyone.

        Hmm, should we counter them and buy $50 worth of advertising for SCT on Aussie Porn Sites.

        Actually, are there even any Aussie porn sites?

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