Cow Talk – Rd6

Written by Father Dougal on May 3 2017

 

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

It’s prime cow season now, with real decisions to make about who leaves and who stays.

I have updated the projections, putting more weight into this seasons trends. I expect the numbers to be pretty close now; within a hundred or two.

When looking at projections, remember that a score over or under a player’s current average will affect not just the next week but the ones after it since their average, and thus the projections, will move along with the current week. If you think their current average is not a good predictor of future performance, take that into account when you plan.

This season I am including past weeks and more weeks ahead. After spending all that time on growth patterns it would be silly not to include the data needed to see them! I have also put historical numbers in gray, so it is easy to see projections vs reality.

Defenders

Andy Otten – Darn, he scored like a cow. Might well do better in the future, but a reminder that cows rarely pan out as keepers. I am still thinking he would be a good hold as long as he is scoring well, since few cows are scoring well and he can safely be played on the pitch. Of course I have just jinxed him, as I did last week come to think of it. Darn. If he does stuff it up next week that may mean he does need to go after that. Another ton and he’ll look more like a keeper.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 45 123,900
2 108 123,900
3 98 123,900
4 98 203,800
5 101 286,300
6 61 344,300
7 85.2 370,000 Roos
8 85.2 382,021 12,021 12,021 Demons
9 85.2 383,923 1,902 13,923 Lions
10 85.2 395,235 11,312 25,235 Dockers
11 85.2 403,199 7,964 33,199 Cats
12 85.2 409,340 6,141 39,340 Saints
13 85.2 413,371 4,031 43,371

Curtly Hampton – Unless he puts up another high score in round 6 or 7, he’ll be ready to sell at the start of week 8. Yeah, with that 41 he really hurt his earning potential. I am thinking with his blah average he is probably the prime candidate for culling, at least from the defenders.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 50 160,000
2 64 160,000
3 84 160,000
4 52 206,800
5 103 242,100
6 41 285,700
7 65.67 298,200 Roos
8 65.67 312,541 14,341 14,341 Demons
9 65.67 306,569 -5,971 8,369 Lions
10 65.67 312,486 5,917 14,286 Dockers
11 65.67 316,562 4,076 18,362 Cats
12 65.67 319,787 3,224 21,587 Saints
13 65.67 321,782 1,995 23,582

 

Thomas Stewart – He added a 68 to go with his 70, which will really help him grow next week and hopefully the week after. Unless you have no other options for trading out, I’d be slow to harvest him this week. He seems to be playing better, and if he can score 65 a week he definitely has room to grow.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 57 117,300
2 60 117,300
3 22 117,300
4 53 148,900
5 70 170,300
6 68 190,700
7 55.00 225,900 Suns
8 55.00 251,955 26,055 26,055 Bombers
9 55.00 264,519 12,563 38,619 Dogs
10 55.00 267,415 2,896 41,515 Power
11 55.00 269,313 1,898 43,413 Crows
12 55.00 270,904 1,591 45,004

Andrew McGrath –  we’ll know better based on what he does next week.  And based on his 89, he looks like he can both grow some more and be a happy on field cow. If he is scoring at a steady 80ish I’d be tempted to hold to his bye.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 83 211,800
2 56 211,800
3 62 211,800
4 97 246,500
5 82 278,100
6 89 313,200
7 78.2 350,700 Suns
8 78.2 368,716 18,016 18,016 Bombers
9 78.2 380,361 11,646 29,661 Dogs
10 78.2 383,301 2,939 32,601 Power
11 78.2 385,133 1,833 34,433 Crows
12 78.2 386,761 1,627 36,061

Caleb Marchbank – He has been having a very boring slow growth season, but at this point I have to say he should be included in the write=ups. Doesn’t mean he is not boring. Looks like slow but steady growth. Too bad he has a R11 bye. I don’t think there is a bad decision you can make with him at this point.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 97 236,100
2 82 236,100
3 56 236,100
4 74 279,600
5 76 301,100
6 69 314,600
7 75.7 329,800 Pies
8 75.7 340,673 10,873 10,873 Saints
9 75.7 348,612 7,940 18,812 Dockers
10 75.7 356,665 8,052 26,865 Roos
11 75.7 362,270 5,605 32,470

Midfielders

Sam Powell-Pepper – He does play the Lions next. Some total spud named Menadue played them last season and would up becoming a Supercoach legend. SPP has the potential to do the same. Someday I will be right often enough to not get all excited when something actually works out. With that nice 97 he looks just like a cow who will be ready for selling at his freakish R9 bye. I do not like these cows with R9 byes; they are new and different and thus scare me. If he scores well again before his bye he might even be worth holding past it.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 78 135,300
2 90 135,300
3 51 135,300
4 41 198,000
5 55 227,500
6 97 233,800
7 68.7 258,700 Eagles
8 68.7 288,380 29,680 29,680 Suns
9 68.7 316,369 27,989 57,669
10 68.7 323,674 7,306 64,974 Cats
11 68.7 328,760 5,085 70,060 Hawks
12 68.7 332,734 3,974 74,034 Bombers
13 68.7 335,264 2,530 76,564 Lions

Sam Petrevski-Seton –  Obviously he could put up another big score, and if you have faith that he will, then, well, I can’t very well tell someone not to have faith now can I… Yeah, can’t count this as right, in fact I’d say I am surprised. Very happy are any owners who did not sell him. He still does not look like a big money maker mind you, but it is nice to not be facing price drops. If you did sell him last week; he only made $300 so you did not miss out much.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 59 189,300
2 51 189,300
3 119 189,300
4 49 240,900
5 49 274,400
6 78 298,400
7 67.5 298,700 Pies
8 67.5 306,165 7,465 7,465 Saints
9 67.5 319,965 13,800 21,265 Dockers
10 67.5 324,761 4,796 26,061 Roos
11 67.5 328,005 3,244 29,305

Rucks

Jarrod Witts – Another cow who I praised and then had of off week. OF course last week was the off week to end all off weeks, so maybe he just succumbed to peer pressure. It so sad when that happens, kids smoking just because their friends do, jumping off cliffs because all their friends did, having a bad week in Supercoach because their friends did. Just because Paddy, Joel, and Nathan all scored badly is no reason for you to score badly too. If they don’t like you when you score well and they don’t then they aren’t really your friends.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 81 217,600
2 100 217,600
3 114 217,600
4 79 292,800
5 91 347,000
6 73 383,300
7 89.67 391,300 Cats
8 89.67 400,577 9,277 9,277 Power
9 89.67 406,914 6,337 15,614
10 89.67 418,104 11,190 26,804 Demons
11 89.67 425,960 7,855 34,660 Eagles
12 89.67 432,038 6,078 40,738 Hawks
13 89.67 435,997 3,959 44,697 Blues

Braydon Preuss– Had a great match, just not as a senior. the way Goldy is playing we may see more of him soon.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 44 123,900
2 111 123,900
3 87 123,900
4 60 199,700
5 262,700
6 262,700
7 75.5 262,700 Crows
8 75.5 292,137 29,437 29,437 Swans
9 75.5 308,756 16,618 46,056 Demons
10 75.5 327,183 18,427 64,483 Blues
11 75.5 340,423 13,240 77,723 Lions
12 75.5 350,392 9,969 87,692 Tigers

 

Forwards

Will Hoskin Elliot – Sure is a nice surprise to see that big green 125 in his score. Apparently playing the Cats agreed with him. Still has a lot of cow friendly teams coming up. As long as the weather is good we can hope he keeps up the tons. I sure would not count on it, but with two score of 120+ in six weeks, they are far from out of the question. That was not clear last week, and I hope everyone who sold him was able to make good use of his money.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 88 213,300
2 120 213,300
3 71 213,300
4 70 282,500
5 51 325,200
6 125 326,200
7 87.5 350,500 Blues
8 87.5 374,941 24,441 24,441 Gaints
9 87.5 409,253 34,312 58,753 Hawks
10 87.5 416,937 7,684 66,437 Lions
11 87.5 422,221 5,284 71,721 Dockers
12 87.5 426,410 4,188 75,910 Demons
13 87.5 428,989 2,579 78,489

Daniel Butler – Another bloke who joined the cool kids with a low score. For him, it doesn’t mean a lot though. He is still slowing and steadily going up in price. No strong reason to sell or to hold him.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 96 123,900
2 75 123,900
3 79 123,900
4 64 198,800
5 64 239,700
6 54 269,600
7 72 280,100 Dogs
8 72 290,484 10,384 10,384 Dockers
9 72 301,758 11,274 21,658 Giants
10 72 317,386 15,628 37,286 Bombers
11 72 328,582 11,195 48,482 Roos
12 72 337,040 8,459 56,940

Dan Houston – Did he not get the memo about scoring when playing the Lions? I suppose he just wanted to be part of the “in crowd” last week. And he has that freakish bye! Clearly a non-conformist. Um, who scored badly to be part of the in crowd…I’m gonna just ignore all that and move on to his joining the slow but steady scorers club…..um….anyways, another player you could sell or hold safely.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 72 117,300
2 81 117,300
3 68 117,300
4 68 185,500
5 73 233,900
6 51 266,300
7 68.8 282,200 Eagles
8 68.8 293,289 11,089 11,089 Suns
9 68.8 299,670 6,382 17,470
10 68.8 311,637 11,967 29,437 Cats
11 68.8 320,152 8,515 37,952 Hawks
12 68.8 326,637 6,485 44,437 Bombers
13 68.8 331,016 4,378 48,816 Lions

Brandan Parfitt–  If he loses his job I’d sell ASAP.  Well, make me the alter boy, I sure didn’t mean lose it due to injury. No point at all in holding him if you still have him.

Cam McCarthy – Decided to add him to the writeups since his price is going up – (ominous music) for now. I kinda expect his real average from here on out will be more like 70ish so he will really up more than his current 61.2 average says he will.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 36 203,600
2 28 203,600
3 53 203,600
4 100 202,800
5 72 230,600
6 78 271,000
7 61.2 311,500 Suns
8 61.2 322,989 11,489 11,489 Bombers
9 61.2 326,709 3,719 15,209 Dogs
10 61.2 321,280 -5,429 9,780 Power
11 61.2 317,026 -4,253 5,526 Crows
12 61.2 314,137 -2,890 2,637

Other cow stuff:  If you think I missed anyone important please let me know in the comments. A lot of cows are just too far from being ripe to have their numbers run yet. I do traditionally miss someone each year, and if there is a ruckus raised for someone I’ll get them added before the lockout.

There are a lot of downgrade targets this week, and not many looking likely for next week. Think extra about doing a double downgrade and doing your upgrade later. Good downgrade targets are likely to get more and more rare as time passes, so don’t look gift cows in the mouth.

Don’t forget the Craggy Island guarantee, all predictions wrong or double your money back!

 

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12 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Rd6”

  1. Great write-up FD. Funny how we are unhappy with Witts’s score of 73 when he is actually rookie priced. Shows what a great pick he has been!

    I might cull Hampton this week so expect another 80+ score!

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  2. Wonderful write up – giving us all the information we could need.

    My only complaint is all the cows that are ripe when I need to cover Nankervis and Beams! Can’t be downgrading playing rookies when I have non playing options on the bench such as Eddy or Hibberd.

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  3. Great write up Father. These cow projections are most insightful and will provide a handy guide with the decisions we make over the next couple of weeks.

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  4. The only thing I would add to this most articulate of articles is that judging by the trend in Butler’s scores, he is unlikely to add much value (if any) before the byes.
    As an owner I hope I’m wrong, because it would be really useful if he could grow a bit more before his bye, and I have other issues to deal with at the moment!

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  5. This is exactly what I needed this week as I’ve been reversing trades like a mad man trying to figure which of the rookies to move on. Thanks for the effort!

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