Cow Talk – Rd7

Written by Father Dougal on May 10 2017

 

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

You know we’re into cow season when you have already started making mistakes! I have at least.

When looking at projections, remember that a score over or under a player’s current average will affect not just the next week but the ones after it since their average, and thus the projections, will move along with the current week. If you think their current average is not a good predictor of future performance, take that into account when you plan.

Also, don’t forget that any cow is capable of a shock high or low score. Extra so if they have had one in the past. Every week I am reminded how these numbers are just a help in making decisions, and not predictions of what will actually happen.

This season I am including past weeks and more weeks ahead. After spending all that time on growth patterns it would be silly not to include the data needed to see them! I have also put historical numbers in gray, so it is easy to see projections vs reality.

Defenders

Andy Otten – He has that nice R13 bye, which makes his price changes not matter to many of his owners. I think (like that means *anything*) he will hover around his current value or a smidge lower, with the chance of a ton pushing him higher. Does have job security, or at least he did until I said that.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 45 123,900
2 108 123,900
3 98 123,900
4 98 203,800
5 101 286,300
6 61 344,300
7 69 370,000
8 82.9 376,400 Demons
9 82.9 373,107 -3,293 -3,293 Lions
10 82.9 380,436 7,328 4,036 Dockers
11 82.9 392,038 11,602 15,638 Cats
12 82.9 400,608 8,570 24,208 Saints
13 82.9 406,939 6,331 30,539

Curtly Hampton – Unless he puts up another high score in round 6 or 7, he’ll be ready to sell at the start of week 8. Oh yeah. I really, really, hope there is a good downgrade target for him this week. He does seem secure and has the R13 bye, but another ton would be a surprise gift, sort of like when you buy something for a lady when it is not a holiday and you don’t need to apologise for anything, which should in theory make her happy, but instead makes her suspicious there is something you are apologising for that she doesn’t know about, and wacky hi-jinks ensue like happens on a sitcom but less fun because it is happening to you. Not that I’m bitter.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 50 160,000
2 64 160,000
3 84 160,000
4 52 206,800
5 103 242,100
6 41 285,700
7 47 298,200
8 63.0 305,500 Demons
9 63.0 293,109 -12,391 -12,391 Lions
10 63.0 293,780 671 -11,720 Dockers
11 63.0 301,421 7,641 -4,079 Cats
12 63.0 307,066 5,644 1,566 Saints
13 63.0 311,235 4,170 5,735

Thomas Stewart – What a badly timed week off! Not much to say after that. Oh, except that having that nice R12 bye he may be worth keeping until then, if he is playing.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 57 117,300
2 60 117,300
3 22 117,300
4 53 148,900
5 70 170,300
6 68 190,700
7 225,900
8 55.0 225,900 Bombers
9 64.2 253,063 27,163 27,163 Dogs
10 64.2 270,524 17,461 44,624 Power
11 64.2 281,711 11,187 55,811 Crows
12 64.2 294,069 12,357 68,169

Andrew McGrath –  If he is scoring at a steady 80ish I’d be tempted to hold to his bye. Which is still true, but another surprise out.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 83 211,800
2 56 211,800
3 62 211,800
4 97 246,500
5 82 278,100
6 89 313,200
7 350,700
8 78.2 350,700 Cats
9 78.2 370,337 19,637 19,637 Eagles
10 78.2 383,132 12,794 32,432 Tigers
11 78.2 387,745 4,614 37,045 Giants
12 78.2 391,153 3,408 40,453 Power
13 78.2 393,671 2,518 42,971

Caleb Marchbank – I don’t think there is a bad decision you can make with him at this point.   Of course after that he goes for 108. At this point he is almost sure to be worth holding until his bye. He could really spud up and have a bad BE before R10 I guess. No reason to expect that though. Not that it won’t happen *anyways* of course.           

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 97 236,100
2 82 236,100
3 56 236,100
4 74 279,600
5 76 301,100
6 69 314,600
7 108 329,800
8 80.3 356,700 Saints
9 80.3 378,395 21,695 21,695 Dockers
10 80.3 399,462 21,066 42,762 Roos
11 80.3 402,647 3,186 45,947

Midfielders

Sam Powell-Pepper – He’s on track to be sold right at his bye, so good job there. I’m torn between taking the cash and holding him until R14, since he plays in all the normal people byes. No inherently right answer there; depends on your team and what you could do with the money. Oh, and on how many non-playing cows you are stuck with.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 78 135,300
2 90 135,300
3 51 135,300
4 41 198,000
5 55 227,500
6 97 233,800
7 60 258,700
8 67.4 285,700 Suns
9 311,274 25,574 25,574
10 67.4 311,274 Cats
11 67.4 316,959 5,686 31,259 Hawks
12 67.4 324,477 7,518 38,777 Bombers
13 67.4 330,030 5,553 44,330 Lions

Sammo Petrevski-Seton –  He still does not look like a big money maker mind you, but it is nice to not be facing price drops. If you did sell him last week; he only made $300 so you did not miss out much. Hi kids! This week’s story is “Sammo the Frog makes Father Dougal look like Father Drongo.”  I had no idea he was a frog in both a previous life as well as this life. In theory I’m not supposed to believe in previous lives, but if frogs had wings they’d be Sammo Petrevski-Seton. Will make a lot of cash over the next two weeks. Three weeks to his bye, so watch his BE closely R10.     

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 59 189,300
2 51 189,300
3 119 189,300
4 49 240,900
5 49 274,400
6 78 298,400
7 134 298,700
8 77 337,200 Saints
9 77 378,153 40,953 40,953 Dockers
10 77 407,959 29,806 70,759 Roos
11 77 404,522 -3,437 67,322

Rucks

Jarrod Witts – A nice talking to was just what he needed. The other kids had another dodgy week, but JW went for a season high 115! He is still due to make cash, although he has that R9 bye real soon now. Be like the smart kids and have a plan, all the popular kids have a plan. Oh, how sad it is when adults try to use peer pressure to get kids to do what they want, but hypocritically expect kids to resist it at other times. They do notice things like that you know. Sooner or later they will be old enough to subtract your wedding day from their birthday and wonder why, if they were premature, they came out weighing 4200 grams…..

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 81 217,600
2 100 217,600
3 114 217,600
4 79 292,800
5 91 347,000
6 73 383,300
7 115 391,300
8 93.3 413,700 Power
9 431,220 17,520 17,520
10 93.3 431,220 Demons
11 93.3 453,221 22,001 39,521 Eagles
12 93.3 459,776 6,555 46,076 Hawks
13 93.3 464,618 4,843 50,918 Blues

Braydon Preuss– Had a great match, just not as a senior. The way Goldy is playing we may see more of him soon. Huh, that again.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 44 123,900
2 111 123,900
3 87 123,900
4 60 199,700
5 262,700
6 262,700
7 262,700
8 75.5 262,700 Swans
9 75.5 293,422 30,722 30,722 Demons
10 75.5 310,981 17,559 48,281 Blues
11 75.5 330,874 19,893 68,174 Tigers
12 75.5 345,569 14,695 82,869

Forwards

Kayne Turner–  What an utter bastard. I hold him for 6 weeks, and when I finally sell him before R7 he goes for 86! I’d call him a muppet but I like The Muppets. He’s not good enough to be a Muppet, he’s more like a Smurf! Yeah! A smurf that stood behind a picket fence that was being spray-painted white, leaving blue and white stripes. Kayne Turner, your official smurf name is Shonky Smurf! Come to think of it, Preuss has been a smurf too. I dub him Stretchy smurf. Heck, throwing away so many leads, there’s a lot of smurfy goodness to go around the North Melbourne Smurfs. Goldstein can be Ankle Smurf, Waite can be Angry Smurf, Lindsay Thomas can be Violent Smurf, Hibberd can be Taunty Smurf, Vickers-Willis can be Risky Smurf, with special guest star Shawn Higgens as Smurfette……Not that I’m bitter…..

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 56 17,100
2 71 17,100
3 55 17,100
4 49 208,100
5 41 231,800
6 61 236,100
7 86 241,600
8 59.9 262,400 Swans
9 59.9 286,215 23,815 23,815 Demons
10 59.9 303,297 17,082 40,897 Blues
11 59.9 304,240 944 41,840 Tigers
12 59.9 304,938 697 42,538

Will Hoskin-Elliot – Clearly does not like the wet, but he sure loves him some sunny and dry. If the Pies and Blues play, and Will Hoskin-Elliot came into contact with Sammo Petrevski-Seton, would they annihilate each other in some form of matter-antimatter-ultra-hyphenated explosion? With my luck they would, and they’d take out all the Blues and Pies I own as well. I feel like he does so well in good weather that holding him until his bye and hoping for sunshine is a viable plan. No, a cunning plan. Yeah, a plan so cunning they could use it as an exam at the philosophy department at the University of Woolamaloo. I think it’s somewhere in Woop Woop, near Ship Creek.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 88 213,300
2 120 213,300
3 71 213,300
4 70 282,500
5 51 325,200
6 125 326,200
7 65 350,500
8 84.3 366,500 Gaints
9 84.3 393,226 26,726 26,726 Hawks
10 84.3 394,788 1,561 28,288 Lions
11 84.3 404,553 9,766 38,053 Dockers
12 84.3 411,767 7,214 45,267 Demons
13 84.3 417,097 5,329 50,597

Daniel Butler – Putter, putter, putter along, I have a round 12 bye, not much else to say.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 96 123,900
2 65 123,900
3 79 123,900
4 64 198,800
5 64 239,700
6 54 269,600
7 57 280,100
8 68.4 285,000 Dockers
9 68.4 290,661 5,661 5,661 Giants
10 68.4 301,286 10,625 16,286 Bombers
11 68.4 314,238 12,953 29,238 Roos
12 68.4 323,807 9,568 38,807

Dan Houston – Looks like he did not travel to China. I have too much self respect to make any Apollo 13 references; feel free to read them in every other article about him this week. I provide quality, original pop-cultural references, like assigning smurf names to notable players from North Melbourne. Wow, there’s a sentence I never thought I would write, and you never thought you would read.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 72 117,300
2 81 117,300
3 68 117,300
4 68 185,500
5 73 233,900
6 51 266,300
7 56 282,200
8 67.0 288,900 Suns
9 67.0 291,117 2,217 2,217
10 67.0 299,901 8,783 11,001 Cats
11 67.0 311,301 11,401 22,401 Hawks
12 67.0 319,723 8,422 30,823 Bombers
13 67.0 325,944 6,221 37,044 Lions

Cam McCarthy – See SPS for why you should take my predictions with a boulder of salt, but I think he will score a lot of 70-75s from now until his bye, with a ton thrown in somewhere. Probably an off game as well. Yet another “hold until his bye” candidate, depending on your situation. Despite his being a Docker, he has very high job security. Huh, there’s another sentence I never thought I would write, and you never thought you would read.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 36 203,600
2 28 203,600
3 53 203,600
4 100 202,800
5 72 230,600
6 78 271,000
7 73 311,500
8 62.9 329,700 Tigers
9 62.9 339,056 9,356 9,356 Blues
10 62.9 339,205 149 9,505 Crows
11 62.9 334,786 -4,419 5,086 Pies
12 62.9 331,521 -3,265 1,821 Lions
13 62.9 329,109 -2,412 -591

Other cow stuff:  If you think I missed anyone important please let me know in the comments. A lot of cows are just too far from being ripe to have their numbers run yet. I do traditionally miss someone each year, and if there is a ruckus raised for someone I’ll get them added before the lockout.

Serious lack of downgrade targets this week. If a good defender downgrade target doesn’t get named I’m hosed like a garden supply wholesaler’s warehouse.

I do want to point out that I actually have nothing against the North Melbourne Smurfs Kangaroos. It’s only against Kayne “Shonky Smurf” Turner that I have petty bitterness. Not that I’m bitter. Oh, and good luck not thinking about Smurfs that stood on the other side of a picket fence while it was being sprayed with white paint this Sunday at around 4:40pm. Bwah ha ha ha!!!!!  🙂

 

Please don’t forget the Craggy Island guarantee, all predictions wrong or double your money back!

 

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11 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Rd7”

  1. Based on your Smurf analogies Father, does that make Brad Scott Papa Smurf?
    I also would think that Scott Thompson would be ‘Geez you’re an annoying Bastard’ Smurf and finally Ben Brown Crusty Smurf.

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  2. Love your work father.
    Looking at the Hampton and Otten’s projections I’m feeling more inclined to hold until their bye. If they can score somewhere near average they don’t look like losing too much money. We might even get lucky with an SPS special.
    Warm bodies on the bench are going to be crucial through the byes.

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  3. Thanks Father, your writings are a godsend at this time of the year & the quirky ramblings that comes with it are quite divine.

    I feel lucky to have held Marchbank, WHE, Turner, Taranto & especially the rising star SPS over the last month when the temptation to trade was high.

    Hampton appears the obvious trade out this week but I am not so sure. I think I will keep him for a while longer.

    Also congrats on your SC teams performance.

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