Cow Talk – Rd8

Written by Father Dougal on May 17 2017

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

Well, what a week that was. We are now at the point where we balance cow ripeness against downgrade options with the byes and our ever shrinking supply of trades. “Have you ever danced with the devil in the pale moonlight?” Me neither, how about “Have you ever danced with a drover in the pale monitor-light?” If not, you will soon.

I’m a bit under the weather so apologies for the rather blah, literally in some cases, write-ups. I added in the correct bye stuff into my tables, which took most of my brain this week.

When looking at projections, remember that a score over or under a player’s current average will affect not just the next week but the ones after it since their average, and thus the projections, will move along with the current week. If you think their current average is not a good predictor of future performance, take that into account when you plan.

Also, don’t forget that any cow is capable of a shock high or low score. Extra so if they have had one in the past. Every week I am reminded how these numbers are just a help in making decisions, and not predictions of what will actually happen.

This season I am including past weeks and more weeks ahead. After spending all that time on growth patterns it would be silly not to include the data needed to see them! I have also put historical numbers in gray, so it is easy to see projections vs reality.

Defenders

Andy Otten – Blah score, small drop, more blah likely with a chance of tons. At this point looks very hold until bye, and oh, Lions next

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 45 123,900
2 108 123,900
3 98 123,900
4 98 203,800
5 101 286,300
6 61 344,300
7 69 370,000
8 56 376,400
9 79.5 360,400 Lions
10 79.5 356,460 -3,940 -3,940 Dockers
11 79.5 358,232 1,773 -2,168 Cats
12 79.5 370,000 11,768 9,600 Saints
13 378,666 8,666 18,266


Curtly Hampton –
Well if you sold him you are probably happy and if not you are probably blah. See Otten for the Blah-gorean chant. R13 bye, yeah. Oh, Lions next.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 50 160,000
2 64 160,000
3 84 160,000
4 52 206,800
5 103 242,100
6 41 285,700
7 47 298,200
8 52 305,500
9 61.6 287,700 Lions
10 61.6 283,387 -4,313 -4,313 Dockers
11 61.6 286,721 3,334 -979 Cats
12 61.6 293,462 6,741 5,762 Saints
13 298,426 4,964 10,726


Thomas Stewart –
Nice to have him back. Close to done, but the sweet R12 bye is nice, since R11 and R13 are the hard ones.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 57 117,300
2 60 117,300
3 22 117,300
4 53 148,900
5 70 170,300
6 68 190,700
7 225,900
8 46 225,900
9 53.7 249,044
10 53.7 258,075 9,031 9,031 Power
11 53.7 258,365 290 9,321 Crows
12 262,014 3,648 12,969


Andrew McGrath –
  Nice to have him back. Yet another blah, hold him until his bye if you want blah.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 83 211,800
2 56 211,800
3 62 211,800
4 97 246,500
5 82 278,100
6 89 313,200
7 350,700
8 66.0 350,700
9 76.4 364,300 Eagles
10 76.4 371,320 7,020 7,020 Tigers
11 76.4 370,894 -427 6,594 Giants
12 76.4 375,222 4,329 10,922 Power
13 378,410 3,188 14,110


Caleb Marchbank –
He could really spud up and have a bad BE before R10 I guess. Oh, and look now. Still would care more about how he affects your byes than his price.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 97 236,100
2 82 236,100
3 56 236,100
4 74 279,600
5 76 301,100
6 69 314,600
7 108 329,800
8 63.0 356,700
9 78.1 370,000 Dockers
10 78.1 383,397 13,397 13,397 Roos
11 379,962 -3,435 9,962

This is making me feel dirty somehow, but: Hello Nick Newman – The Newman scale of feelings towards Nick Newman:

Sold him before R8 Embolism
Never owned him Unhappy
Own him as Emergency Blah
Own him on field Happy
Lucked into him as Captain Ecstatic
Captained him on purpose Liar!!!!!

Wow, that is some serious growth that he could get if he keeps his job. Crazy huh? First Tom Mitchell, and now Newman. It’s like a special version of the Kermit vest that goes onto one lucky swan each season. Needs a name, Swan vest, Oh! Yeah, the Bjork vest! Hmm, more fun to call it the Swan Dress. Bjork Dress? Anyways, Newman is the lucky wearer of the article of clothing awaiting a name, so who knows what will really happen. With his massive score coming at exactly the right time for a pre-bye sale, it would be sweet if he actually played the next two matches. Love to turn him into a keeper from the Power or Suns.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 123,900
2 73 123,900
3 105 123,900
4 80 203,800
5 286,300
6 59 344,300
7 370,000
8 151 376,400
9 93.6 360,400 Saints
10 93.6 400,579 40,179 40,179 Hawks
11 445,573 44,994 85,173

 

Midfielders

Sam Powell-Pepper – Well, sell now or hold through the byes. I’m holding through the byes barring the unexpected.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 78 135,300
2 90 135,300
3 51 135,300
4 41 198,000
5 55 227,500
6 97 233,800
7 60 258,700
8 70.0 285,700
9 311,900
10 67.8 311,900 Cats
11 67.8 317,737 5,837 5,837 Hawks
12 67.8 325,485 7,749 13,585 Bombers
13 67.8 330,190 4,705 18,290 Lions


Sammo Petrevski-Seton –
  Not the best follow up to his high score. Still a danger of a bad BE one round before his bye. Have to see what happens next week.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 59 189,300
2 51 189,300
3 116 189,300
4 49 240,900
5 49 274,400
6 78 298,400
7 134 298,700
8 59 337,200
9 74.4 369,500 Dockers
10 74.4 391,153 21,653 21,653 Roos
11 380,555 -10,599 11,055

Rucks

Jarrod Witts – At this point I find it hard to think of him as a cow. I hope to keep him all season, and look forward to having him play all of R11-R13.  (Please don’t let him get hurt now that I said that!)

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 81 217,600
2 100 217,600
3 114 217,600
4 79 292,800
5 91 347,000
6 73 383,300
7 115 391,300
8 97 413,700
9 432,100
10 93.8 432,878 Demons
11 93.8 456,312 23,434 23,434 Eagles
12 93.8 464,133 7,821 31,255 Hawks
13 93.8 468,459 4,326 35,581 Blues


Braydon Preuss–
These are the times that try men’s souls.

Well, let me tell you of the story of a man named Braydon on a tragic and fateful day. He put ten cents in his pocket, kissed his wife and family, went to ride on the V. F. L.

Well, did he ever return? No, he never returned and his fate is still unlearned. He may ride forever ‘neath the streets of Boston. He’s the ruck who never returned.

 

Forwards

Kayne “Shonky Smurf” Turner – I’m still bitter. Looking like he will grow and top out about when you will want to sell him, either before R12 or R14. Bastard.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 56 17,100
2 71 17,100
3 55 17,100
4 49 208,100
5 41 231,800
6 61 236,100
7 86 241,600
8 72 262,400
9 61.4 291,100 Demons
10 61.4 313,006 21,906 21,906 Blues
11 61.4 318,191 5,185 27,091 Tigers
12 316,304 -1,887 25,204

 

Will Hoskin-Elliot – Will probably fluctuate before his bye, but has a lot higher average then the other cow forwards and will look good on the field until R13.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 88 213,300
2 120 213,300
3 71 213,300
4 70 282,500
5 51 325,200
6 125 326,200
7 65 350,500
8 75 366,500
9 83.1 388,400 Hawks
10 83.1 386,557 -1,843 -1,843 Lions
11 83.1 393,290 6,733 4,890 Dockers
12 83.1 401,892 8,602 13,492 Demons
13 406,995 5,103 18,595


Daniel Butler –
Putter, putter, putter along, Sputter, gasp, cough, ack pthpt! Nice 36 to go into his price cycle right as he was getting ripe for sale. Nice R12, bye, but what was that score? Did it mean anything? Probably a blip, but who knows really.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next Change
1 96 123,900
2 65 123,900
3 79 123,900
4 64 198,800
5 64 239,700
6 54 269,600
7 57 280,100
8 36.0 285,000
9 64.4 275,100 Giants 72,300
10 64.4 273,499 -1,601 -1,601 Bombers 70,699
11 64.4 275,610 2,111 510 Roos 72,810
12 288,952 13,342 13,852 86,152

 

Dan Houston – Sell now or enjoy him playing all of R11-R13.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 72 117,300
2 81 117,300
3 68 117,300
4 68 185,500
5 73 233,900
6 51 266,300
7 56 282,200
8 288,900
9 288,900
10 67.0 288,900 0 0 Cats
11 67.0 290,225 1,325 1,325 Hawks
12 67.0 298,324 8,099 9,424 Bombers
13 67.0 309,186 10,862 20,286 Lions

 

Cam McCarthy – Seems to have topped out until he throws a high or low score. Sell or hold to his bye blah blah blah yadda yadda yadda.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 36 203,600
2 28 203,600
3 53 203,600
4 100 202,800
5 72 230,600
6 78 271,000
7 73 311,500
8 66 329,700
9 63.3 339,900 Blues
10 63.3 341,407 1,507 1,507 Crows
11 63.3 338,167 -3,240 -1,733 Pies
12 63.3 334,545 -3,622 -5,355 Lions
13 330,852 -3,693 -9,048


Other cow stuff:
  If you think I missed anyone important please let me know in the comments. I keep looking at this various cows not yet included and wonder where all the profit is going to come from. I may need to start lowering my standards.

 

What should we call the article of clothing worn last season by Tom Mitchell and this season by Nick Newman?

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Did you or did you not think about Smurfs that stood on the other side of a picket fence while being sprayed with white paint last Sunday at around 4:40pm?

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Did you have any idea what the exceptionally obscure reference in Preuss's write up was, or did I amuse nobody but mysef?

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Don’t forget the Craggy Island guarantee, all predictions wrong or double your money back!

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14 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Rd8”

  1. Incredible write up as always!

    Just one warning for Houston owners – he was dropped on the weekend and is absolutely no guarantee to come back into the Port team. Don’t rely on him playing rounds 11-13 either way.

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  2. Thanks Father.

    I must confess. I am bitterly torn on Yeo. He is all I’m looking for this week.R12 bye. DPP. Is he really the chosen one? I know he is still young, but he has hurt me so much in the past. Is it time to forgive his sins, and bring him back to the fold.

    My fear is that he will transform into Satan himself and drag us all down to hell.

    Is my fear irrational?

    Help me Father.

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    1. Its coming up round 9 I dunno how much more he can prove himself if you aren’t sold I wouldn’t get him.

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    2. At this point I think fear of Yeo is not very rational. All players go up and down week to week, what matters is how far and how many. He is certainly not going to score a ton every week, but he looks like he will be able to keep up a high average.

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  3. Father, it’s as if you are speaking for me when you have those Kayne Turner rants. I started the season with both him and Jy Simpkin on the field and with my recent moves I feel immediate regret about the decision to trade them out of my side.

    Both have(had) pretty great JS, the ‘good’ bye, and both had been slow steady growers who have also worked hard on the field to bring their BE #’s down little by litte each round.

    Ive managed to catch a few North games over here and they have both been fun to watch. (Even though you’re slow growth gave me a headache, and your recent injury would have only added to it, get well soon Jy! You looked good out there, kiddo!)

    I’m learning a bunch about ‘rookie forecasting’ this year, although I was slow out of the gate in that education.

    So thanks a bunch for this, Father…and boy do i feel you on Shonks.

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  4. Father, you won’t believe me
    You’ll think that I’m just braggin’
    That I could feel the way I do
    And still be on the SC wagon!

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  5. Hey guys need a good cow for Otten
    Currently planning of trading butler out for heeney and otten out for Mc Innes (155,100).

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    1. I fear bringing in a rookie with just one match, but I like him and expect/hope to bring him in myself next week

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  6. Has everyones cows been the biggest roller-coaster of their SC careers this year? Or am i on one hell of a ride on my own?

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    1. Sure has been for me. There are fewer cows, and more of them seem to be having issues. I’m amazed at how few midfield cows have made it into Cow Talk for example.

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