Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows
So, rather than talk about the exact same stuff everyone else talks about on round 1, I’m gonna talk about something I thought about a lot when looking at last season. There is a big difference between a bad decision and a decision that did not work out.
Are you trying to make excuses for last season? Or maybe Round one?
Nope, it is an important distinction. When you make a bad decision, you can learn, like, that thing I did, do not do that thing again. A decision that was good but did not work out, you don’t want to learn that lesson. .
The classic example of a good decision that didn’t work out is a player getting hurt the round after you bring him in. Extra so for someone with no injury history. There was no way to know that a random event was going to happen. Can’t be planned for.
The classic example of a bad decision is, of course, Shawn Higgins. Well, bringing him in and expecting him to be anything other than himself. Chasing points from a player with a history of not scoring points is not likely to work out.
Shawn does score points you know. It is not fair to say he doesn’t score points.
Ha! You mean I’m right! He does score points. He scores them, and starts looking good, and his price is low, and you sense a bargain, and BAM he’s sucked you in! That’s when the points stop.
Oh. Yes, the points, they are the bait in the trap.
Exactly mate, a good round or two is like a good round or two. All of a sudden someone you wouldn’t have given the time of day to at a singles bar starts lookin’ gooood, and ends up in your, um, team.
Quite an analogy. I think I need an anolo-gisic.
Anyways, this is the time of year with the highest temptation to make bad decisions. We are still used to making changes to our team and have all out trades. And we have one week’s worth of data. Some single data points, like no ACL, are enough. For season long performance, one is not likely enough.
Someone on twitter said “Did you know that on average 4.55% of all players will have their best score of the year Round 1? Another 4.55% or so will have their worst score of the year on Round 1!”
That was you
Yes, well, not the point. But, think about it. If a player plays 22 rounds, than each round 1 of every 22 players will have their season low score, and another (probably different) set of players will have their season high score.
Just probably different?
Yes, Alex Rance, for example had both.
Ohhh, yeah, right.
Anyways, if we don’t know much about a player’s scoring potential, either because he is new, or back from injury, or whatever, then even one score is helpful, if not conclusive. But if we do know a lot about their scoring history and their situation, then we can make educated guesses about who just had their best or worst week. Clayton Oliver, I expect, just has his low score, barring injury. It would not surprise me if The Bont, Coniglio, and some of the rookies just had their high scores.
So, look at how things worked out in the past with similar decisions, decide if they were bad, good, or didn’t work, and then do what you think you should, even if the conventional wisdom says otherwise. Just be ready to own what happens, and try to fail in the way you can most accept.
I think that was pretty much the exact same stuff everyone else is talking about.
Well, at least a little different. Look, this is the last week I’m not up to my you know whats in numbers for months, so you can’t blame a bloke for taking the easy topic for a change, right? Besides, it is important. Blowing a trade now means one less later, when it matters
You mean like, on round 21 we might be willing to give body parts for another trade, but now with “so many” it hardly seems a big deal to use up a few trades casually, failing to remember the horrors of the late rounds of previous seasons?
Or we forget about the carnage every year towards the end of the season, when really there is carnage every single season and we put it out of our heads and figure it won’t be like that again even though it ALWAYS is like that, and so we squander our precious trades, blowing through them like dust before swine with the winds?
So even though you know it is useless and nobody is going to listen to you and actually conserve their trades when they have 30 because “I want a squirrel Daddy, trade for a squirrel I want it NOW!” and then the squirrel turns out to be Riley Bonner?
I….I’m just going to go with whatever you just said.
Thanks for reading!
Oh, and my yearly link to why “Small or Far Away”
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