Cow Talk – Round 10

Written by Father Dougal on May 31 2017

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

The Byes are here at last. Time to separate the Posers from the Priests. Well, something like that. Anyways, the next three rounds should see some big ranking moves, as the prepared and lucky move past the prepared and unlucky, and the unprepared but lucky, while all those move past the unprepared and unlucky.

I’m not doing the “song for everyone” thing again for a while. That took waaaay longer than I expected. Individual song-things may occur as they occur to me.

Since bye stuff drives just about everything during the byes, I’m going to say “It depends on how you are set for the byes” here and not say it for every single player. Everything depends on that now, even though there may be other things to consider.

Standard bits

When looking at projections, remember that a score over or under a player’s current average will affect not just the next week but the ones after it since their average, and thus the projections, will move along with the current week. If you think their current average is not a good predictor of future performance, take that into account when you plan.

Also, don’t forget that any cow is capable of a shock high or low score. Extra so if they have had one in the past. Every week I am reminded how these numbers are just a help in making decisions, and not predictions of what will actually happen.

This season I am including past weeks and more weeks ahead. After spending all that time on growth patterns it would be silly not to include the data needed to see them! I have also put historical numbers in gray, so it is easy to see projections vs reality.

Defenders

Andy Otten Appears likely to hold his value up to his bye. My, make that certain too – short of a “Jake Lloyd,” and while I wouldn’t count on big rises they are sure possible. Such a well timed big score!

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 45 123,900
2 108 123,900
3 98 123,900
4 98 203,800
5 101 286,300
6 61 344,300
7 69 370,000
8 56 376,400
9 72 360,400
10 121 353,900
11 82.9 372,200 Cats
12 82.9 397,511 25,311 25,311 Saints
13 421,038 23,527 48,838
14 82.9 421,038 0 48,838 Hawk
15 82.9 421,403 365 49,203 Blues

 

Curtly Hampton – Not likely to drop in price for several weeks. Make that months. Good try mate, not the worst cow performance before an injury ever. Bye. Meaning goodbye, not the byes bye.


Thomas Stewart –
This would be a great time for him to discover his inner Nick Newman and put up a big score. Wow, thanks! 🙂

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 57 117,300
2 60 117,300
3 22 117,300
4 53 148,900
5 70 170,300
6 68 190,700
7 225,900
8 46 225,900
9 52 249,044
10 91.0 257,600
11 57.7 274,400 Crows
12 291,840 17,440 17,440
13 57.7 291,840 0 17,440 Eagles
14 57.7 307,228 15,389 32,828 Dockers
15 57.7 303,716 -3,512 29,316 Giants


Andrew McGrath – Could easily start bleeding cash. Yes, or he could ton up (!) and make it much less likely he will bleed cash. He might still (!) (again) but most likely steady or small rises. Way less worrisome to hold now than before.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 83 211,800
2 56 211,800
3 62 211,800
4 97 246,500
5 82 278,100
6 89 313,200
7 350,700
8 66 350,700
9 59 364,300
10 101 364,400
11 77.2 369,700 Giants
12 77.2 378,423 8,723 8,723 Power
13 392,981 14,558 23,281
14 77.2 392,981 0 23,281 Swans
15 77.2 393,116 135 23,416 Lions

 

Caleb Marchbank – If you need to dump a rookie with a R11 bye, he looks like a good choice. Not much growth in his future without a ton popping up out of nowhere.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 97 236,100
2 82 236,100
3 56 236,100
4 74 279,600
5 76 301,100
6 69 314,600
7 108 329,800
8 63 356,700
9 61 370,000
10 70 376,600
11 364,400
12 75.6 364,400 0 0 Giants
13 75.6 360,861 -3,539 -3,539 Suns
14 75.6 364,761 3,900 361 Tigers
15 75.6 370,134 5,373 5,734 Crows

Nick Newman – I am still flirting with the idea of just keeping him as D6. He may have topped out, but if he can put up one 150+ score he can put up another. Or not. I feel like he is a low priority to trade out because of his scoring well, but of course he has made a lot of money that could be used.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 123,900
2 73 123,900
3 105 123,900
4 80 126,900
5 206,700
6 59 206,700
7 261,400
8 151 261,400
9 93 322,000
10 72 372,900
11 416,000
12 90.4 416,000 0 0 Dogs
13 90.4 420,687 4,687 4,687 Tigers
14 90.4 422,997 2,310 6,997 Bombers
15 90.4 432,918 9,920 16,918 Demons

Jarrod Berry – Well, he’s playing still. Not a lot of value, might go back to 60-70 and make money, but has scored a lot of blahs. If nothing else he is playing, and can be a back up.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 139,800
2 139,800
3 32 139,800
4 29 139,800
5 14 139,800
6 62 136,900
7 60 147,900
8 71 170,000
9 75 211,400
10 48 248,000
11 269,500
12 48.9 269,500 0 0 Dockers
13 48.9 275,389 5,889 5,889 Power
14 48.9 268,085 -7,304 -1,415 Giants
15 48.9 263,088 -4,997 -6,412 Bombers

Midfielders

Sam Powell-Pepper  –  If you still own Sergeant Powell-Pepper, I’d keep him until R14 since his bye is in the past. Well, that sums him up. Looks like a lot of ok scores although we can hope.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 78 135,300
2 90 135,300
3 51 135,300
4 41 198,000
5 55 227,500
6 97 233,800
7 60 258,700
8 70.0 285,700
9 311,900
10 55 311,900
11 66.3 312,600 Hawks
12 66.3 315,852 3,252 3,252 Bombers
13 66.3 316,615 763 4,015 Lions
14 66.3 322,231 5,616 9,631 Pies
15 66.3 326,373 4,142 13,773 Tigers

Sammo Petrevski-Seton – You Ruined Everything (Jonathan Coulton). Now a certainly of a bad BE one round before his bye. And a *really* bad BE at his bye. If you still have him sell him. Gets a song again this week.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 59 189,300
2 51 189,300
3 116 189,300
4 49 240,900
5 49 274,400
6 78 298,400
7 134 298,700
8 59 337,200
9 58 369,500
10 26 384,700
11 347,700
12 67.9 347,700 0 0 Giants
13 67.9 324,157 -23,543 -23,543 Suns
14 67.9 311,208 -12,949 -36,492 Tigers
15 67.9 320,339 9,131 -27,361 Crows

Jake Barrett – I’m hoping he puts up a big score this week against the Pies.  Well, big for a certain value of big. The 77 keeps him ticking along through the byes most likely.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 46 127,900
2 50 127,900
3 74 127,900
4 170,600
5 170,600
6 170,600
7 60 170,600
8 59 208,200
9 87 239,600
10 77 268,800
11 297,800
12 64.7 297,800 0 0 Dockers
13 64.7 321,603 23,803 23,803 Power
14 64.7 329,221 7,619 31,421 Giants
15 64.7 329,363 141 31,563 Bombers

Tim TarantoHe sort of looks to have topped out, but his recent scores are a lot better than his early season, so maybe not. Has made decent cash for his owners, which looked in doubt for a long time.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 44 207,300
2 75 207,300
3 49 207,300
4 60 228,300
5 250,800
6 86 250,800
7 66 272,100
8 82 295,700
9 81 322,400
10 72 340,100
11 68.3 355,700 Bombers
12 68.3 361,014 5,314 5,314 Blues
13 359,285 -1,728 3,585
14 68.3 359,285 0 3,585 Lions
15 68.3 356,376 -2,909 676 Cats

Rucks

Jarrod Witts – Probably his last week here. He’s graduating. Not a cow, just a regular player. If I didn’t own him I might bring him in for the byes if you don’t have him and have ruck issues. Not something you say about a cow.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 81 217,600
2 100 217,600
3 114 217,600
4 79 292,800
5 91 347,000
6 73 383,300
7 115 391,300
8 97 413,700
9 432,100
10 98 432,100
11 94.2 457,000 Eagles
12 94.2 466,300 9,300 9,300 Hawks
13 94.2 471,924 5,624 14,924 Blues
14 94.2 474,389 2,465 17,389 Saints
15 94.2 476,208 1,819 19,208 Roos

Braydon Preuss – Will he ever return? Dunno, but he’s gone until he plays again.

Forwards

Kayne “Shonky Smurf” Turner – Still making money and a R12 bye, what more could you want? If anything I’m even more bitter. Bitterer. Extra Bitter, like an IPA going for a record. If you have him I hate you, and you should probably hold him until R14.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 56 17,100
2 71 17,100
3 55 17,100
4 49 208,100
5 41 231,800
6 61 236,100
7 86 241,600
8 72 262,400
9 87 291,100
10 80 324,200
11 65.8 345,800 Tigers
12 358,825 13,025 13,025
13 65.8 358,825 0 13,025 Saints
14 65.8 358,979 154 13,179 Dogs
15 65.8 352,761 -6,217 6,961 Suns

Will Hoskin-Elliot – I am hoping he puts up a big score vs the Lions. If it doesn’t rain. Well, it rained. Darn. He still could ton up again, but I am expecting a slow cash leak until R13 when everyone who still owns him trades him out.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 88 213,300
2 120 213,300
3 71 213,300
4 70 282,500
5 51 325,200
6 125 326,200
7 65 350,500
8 75 366,500
9 71 388,400
10 64 380,900
11 80.0 374,700 Dockers
12 80.0 372,203 -2,497 -2,497 Demons
13 374,374 2,171 -326
14 80.0 374,374 0 -326 Power
15 80.0 383,108 8,735 8,408 Hawks

Daniel Butler – Inured and/or lost his job. Well, injured, for sure, and may or may not have lost his job. Either way, pretty much a sell unless you are really desperate for R13 players and you can’t use his cash to get one in.

Dan Houston – Still appears to have lost his job right when he would be most needed post his R9 bye.

Cam McCarthy – Playing forward, he could pump out a ton and make more, or choke and make less. Survey says  –  Choke and make less. With more less on the way. That 43, owch.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 36 203,600
2 28 203,600
3 53 203,600
4 100 202,800
5 72 230,600
6 78 271,000
7 73 311,500
8 66 329,700
9 61 339,900
10 43 340,100
11 61.0 326,800 Pies
12 61.0 314,584 -12,216 -12,216 Lions
13 305,574 -9,010 -21,226
14 61.0 305,574 0 -21,226 Cats
15 61.0 306,955 1,380 -19,845 Saints

Blake Hardwick – Should go up decently before his bye when the 32 leave his three round average. And still should.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 134,900
2 134,900
3 134,900
4 63 134,900
5 65 134,900
6 77 134,900
7 74 191,000
8 32 237,600
9 55 256,800
10 65 261,400
11 61.6 260,700 Cats
12 61.6 273,222 12,522 12,522 Saints
13 285,388 12,165 24,688
14 61.6 285,388 0 24,688 Crows
15 61.6 292,831 7,443 32,131 Pies

James Parsons – At least he has the R12 bye. Well, yeah, some points are better than no points.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 117,300
2 117,300
3 60 117,300
4 68 117,300
5 117,300
6 117,300
7 19 117,300
8 38 152,300
9 47 168,000
10 42 170,500
11 45.7 182,500 Crows
12 194,637 12,137 12,137
13 45.7 194,637 0 12,137 Eagles
14 45.7 202,993 8,356 20,493 Dockers
15 45.7 210,791 7,798 28,291 Giants

Other cow stuff: If you think I missed anyone important please let me know in the comments. I keep looking at this various cows not yet included and wonder where all the profit is going to come from. I already started lowering my standards.

Don’t forget the Craggy Island guarantee, all predictions wrong or double your money back!

Non – cow stuff: If ever there was a time to try and plan a few rounds of trading ahead, that time is now. Really. If you end up with fewer than 18 players in a round, you are going to get hurt a lot rank-wise. With the recent injuries I’m looking at 15 players in R13, and I know that odds are I’ll lose one so need to plan on 19 to really get 18. So I have three round plan, which I hope does not get too messed up, but at least gives me a shot. If I wasn’t planning like mad, dooom dooooooom! Don’t be doomed.

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8 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 10”

    1. I’ll see how they are doing next week. Normally I’d want them to be a little more valuable before I’d start covering them, but this year standards are lower.

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  1. Is there any point in keeping guys like fisher? I know he hasnt fattened yet but to be honest I’d rather hold onto barrett than him this week.
    I can trade Mbank, Fisher and Ballic to Sharenberg/Perryman, Bolton and Dusty Martin with $46k remaining in bank.

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    1. If you need him to make 18, or 19, then he is useful. One big score and he will make money. But he is more expendable than most other cows.

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  2. I still have Mitch Hannan who has finally come good with 2 80+ scores in the last 2 weeks, BE of -27 so might squeeze a few more $ from him. Don’t see him mentioned, everyone else avoided him?

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