Cow Talk – Round 11

Written by Father Dougal on June 7 2017

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

The first round of the byes is over, and there was much rejoicing. Either you did well, and rejoiced, or did badly, and rejoiced it is in the past. Either way, Hoody Hoo!

Standard bits

When looking at projections, remember that a score over or under a player’s current average will affect not just the next week but the ones after it since their average, and thus the projections, will move along with the current week. If you think their current average is not a good predictor of future performance, take that into account when you plan.

Also, don’t forget that any cow is capable of a shock high or low score. Extra so if they have had one in the past. Every week I am reminded how these numbers are just a help in making decisions, and not predictions of what will actually happen.

This season I am including past weeks and more weeks ahead. After spending all that time on growth patterns it would be silly not to include the data needed to see them! I have also put historical numbers in gray, so it is easy to see projections vs reality.

Defenders

Andy Otten My, make that certain to (hold his value) – Bonk! Cursed him. Wow, such a surprise low score.  He still has a good chance to hold his value, but no point in holding him in hopes of more cash. If he has a great score that’s nice, but really who will want to hold him after this round?

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 45 123,900
2 108 123,900
3 98 123,900
4 98 203,800
5 101 286,300
6 61 344,300
7 69 370,000
8 56 376,400
9 72 360,400
10 121 353,900
11 36 372,200
12 78.6 376,200 Saints
13 381,907 5,707 5,707
14 78.6 381,907 0 5,707 Hawk
15 78.6 367,251 -14,656 -8,949 Blues
16 78.6 375,439 8,188 -761 Dogs
17 78.6 381,468 6,029 5,268 Demons

Thomas Stewart – Two good scores in a row? Right when they will help him make money for sales R14 when we will no long need him. Wow, Thanks!  Well, he does seem to have good job security, so not mad to keep him for that, but still, cash….

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 57 117,300
2 60 117,300
3 22 117,300
4 53 148,900
5 70 170,300
6 68 190,700
7 225,900
8 46 225,900
9 52 249,044
10 91 257,600
11 73 274,400
12 298,300
13 53.5 298,300 0 0 Eagles
14 53.5 316,472 18,172 18,172 Dockers
15 53.5 313,160 -3,312 14,860 Giants
16 53.5 302,041 -11,119 3,741 Lions
17 53.5 293,853 -8,188 -4,447 Hawks

 

Andrew McGrath – A lot like Otten. Will probably not lose money and looks keep-able if you like but probably should be sold.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 83 211,800
2 56 211,800
3 62 211,800
4 97 246,500
5 82 278,100
6 89 313,200
7 350,700
8 66 350,700
9 59 364,300
10 101 364,400
11 55 369,700
12 75.0 368,200 Power
13 373,952 5,752 5,752
14 75.0 373,952 0 5,752 Swans
15 75.0 366,614 -7,338 -1,586 Lions
16 75.0 370,114 3,499 1,914 Pies
17 75.0 372,690 2,577 4,490 Saints

Caleb Marchbank – Did not play last round

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 97 236,100
2 82 236,100
3 56 236,100
4 74 279,600
5 76 301,100
6 69 314,600
7 108 329,800
8 63 356,700
9 61 370,000
10 70 376,600
11 364,400
12 75.6 364,400 Giants
13 75.6 360,293 -4,107 -4,107 Suns
14 75.6 363,767 3,475 -633 Tigers
15 75.6 368,818 5,051 4,418 Crows
16 75.6 372,538 3,720 8,138 Demons
17 75.6 375,277 2,739 10,877 Dogs

Nick Newman – Did not play last round. Seriously debating if he is ok as D6. Can’t move him until R14 at the soonest, so no rush to decide.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 123,900
2 73 123,900
3 105 123,900
4 80 126,900
5 206,700
6 59 206,700
7 261,400
8 151 261,400
9 93 322,000
10 72 372,900
11 416,000
12 90.4 416,000 Dogs
13 90.4 420,024 4,024 4,024 Tigers
14 90.4 421,842 1,818 5,842 Bombers
15 90.4 431,385 9,542 15,385 Demons
16 90.4 438,411 7,026 22,411 Suns
17 90.4 443,585 5,174 27,585 Giants

Jarrod Berry – Did not play last round. Hi Thommo, you are not the only one who likes the byes for the reduced writing load! 🙂

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 139,800
2 139,800
3 32 139,800
4 29 139,800
5 14 139,800
6 62 136,900
7 60 147,900
8 71 170,000
9 75 211,400
10 48 248,000
11 269,500
12 48.9 269,500 Dockers
13 48.9 274,955 5,455 5,455 Power
14 48.9 267,343 -7,612 -2,157 Giants
15 48.9 262,127 -5,216 -7,373 Bombers
16 48.9 258,286 -3,841 -11,214 Cats
17 48.9 255,458 -2,828 -14,042 Tigers

Midfielders

Sam Powell-Pepper Looks like a lot of ok scores although we can hope – Ohhh, nice, hoping worked! Should at worst hold his value. (Unless I just Ottened him!)

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 78 135,300
2 90 135,300
3 51 135,300
4 41 198,000
5 55 227,500
6 97 233,800
7 60 258,700
8 70.0 285,700
9 311,900
10 55 311,900
11 88 312,600
12 68.5 325,200 Bombers
13 68.5 334,136 8,936 8,936 Lions
14 68.5 346,745 12,609 21,545 Pies
15 68.5 347,350 605 22,150 Tigers
16 68.5 347,796 446 22,596 Eagles
17 68.5 348,125 329 22,925 Roos

Sammo Petrevski-Seton – Unable to lost value while not playing. Ready to lose some more value now that he is back.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 59 189,300
2 51 189,300
3 116 189,300
4 49 240,900
5 49 274,400
6 78 298,400
7 134 298,700
8 59 337,200
9 58 369,500
10 26 384,700
11 347,700
12 67.9 347,700 Giants
13 67.9 323,646 -24,054 -24,054 Suns
14 67.9 310,341 -13,305 -37,359 Tigers
15 67.9 319,195 8,854 -28,505 Crows
16 67.9 325,715 6,520 -21,985 Demons
17 67.9 330,516 4,801 -17,184 Dogs

Jake Barrett – Did not play last week.

Tim TarantoAnother nice match. He looks like the, singular the, high priced rookie who worked out. Very ready to be sold at his bye.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 44 207,300
2 75 207,300
3 49 207,300
4 60 228,300
5 250,800
6 86 250,800
7 66 272,100
8 82 295,700
9 81 322,400
10 72 340,100
11 85 355,700
12 70.0 368,100 Blues
13 372,098 3,998 3,998
14 70.0 372,098 0 3,998 Lions
15 70.0 374,152 2,054 6,052 Cats
16 70.0 368,987 -5,165 887 Hawks
17 70.0 365,183 -3,803 -2,917 Swans

Rucks

No more rucks, it was nice while it lasted. Witts of course being elevated to steer. We shall not speak of the others. Or is we do, it will be in hushed tones, with furtive glances……


Forwards

Kayne “Shonky Smurf” Turner – The taunting takes a break, but still, he sure ended up good….um….so about that Taranto comment, guess it is two high priced rookies who worked out this season. (Mutter mutter)  Probably best to sell this or next week. Unless he goes big R13, assuming you don’t sell him too soon and end up all bitter about it.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 56 171,400
2 71 171,400
3 55 171,400
4 49 208,100
5 41 231,800
6 61 236,100
7 86 241,600
8 72 262,400
9 87 291,100
10 80 324,200
11 55 345,800
12 353,600
13 64.8 353,600 0 0 Saints
14 64.8 351,992 -1,608 -1,608 Dogs
15 64.8 341,379 -10,613 -12,221 Suns
16 64.8 337,935 -3,444 -15,665 Dockers
17 64.8 335,398 -2,536 -18,202 Power

Will Hoskin-Elliot – I am expecting a slow cash leak until R13 when everyone who still owns him trades him out. – Nice to be wrong, thank you for the 90!  If you have a lot of cow to move pn or before R13, he is one of the better scoring ones (jinx!)  so more likely to stay and play than the other R13 cows.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 88 213,300
2 120 213,300
3 71 213,300
4 70 282,500
5 51 325,200
6 125 326,200
7 65 350,500
8 75 366,500
9 71 388,400
10 64 380,900
11 90 374,700
12 80.9 376,200 Demons
13 381,583 5,383 5,383
14 80.9 381,583 0 5,383 Power
15 80.9 393,074 11,491 16,874 Hawks
16 80.9 397,488 4,415 21,288 Bombers
17 80.9 400,739 3,251 24,539 Suns

Daniel Butler – I was going to make a “cat came back” joke since tigers are cats, but then since there is an actual “Cats” team that joke won’t work. Well, it will if I wait to make it for a Geelong playing some time in the future. Just forget I wrote this…..

Oh, how I hate players who take weeks off and force me to customize their spreadsheet.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 96 123,900
2 65 123,900
3 79 123,900
4 64 198,800
5 64 239,700
6 54 269,600
7 57 280,100
8 36 285,000
9 275,100
10 275,100
11 58.0 275,100
12 270,391
13 63.7 270,391 0 0 Swans
14 63.7 278,635 8,244 8,244 Blues
15 63.7 287,673 9,038 17,282 Power
16 63.7 296,850 9,178 26,459 Saints
17 63.7 303,608 6,758 33,217 Lions

 

Cam McCarthy – Survey says  –  Choke and make less. With more less on the way. – More less has been delivered. Good candidate for sell now if you have to sell someone now. Or even if you don’t.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 36 203,600
2 28 203,600
3 53 203,600
4 100 202,800
5 72 230,600
6 78 271,000
7 73 311,500
8 66 329,700
9 61 339,900
10 43 340,100
11 50 326,800
12 60.0 309,300 Lions
13 295,860 -13,440 -13,440
14 60.0 295,860 0 -13,440 Cats
15 60.0 293,531 -2,329 -15,769 Saints
16 60.0 296,267 2,736 -13,033 Roos
17 60.0 298,282 2,015 -11,018 Eagles

Blake Hardwick – Kind of in the middle of sell/keep early. Might make cash, ok but not great scoring. Just did not end up as well as hoped. Darn. Still, cash.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 134,900
2 134,900
3 134,900
4 63 134,900
5 65 134,900
6 77 134,900
7 74 191,000
8 32 237,600
9 55 256,800
10 65 261,400
11 52 260,700
12 60.4 268,700 Saints
13 276,815 8,115 8,115
14 60.4 276,815 0 8,115 Crows
15 60.4 280,731 3,916 12,031 Pies
16 60.4 287,343 6,612 18,643 Giants
17 60.4 292,211 4,869 23,511 Cats

James Parsons – Some points are better than no points – And 56 is some points.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 117,300
2 117,300
3 60 117,300
4 68 117,300
5 117,300
6 117,300
7 19 117,300
8 38 152,300
9 47 168,000
10 42 170,500
11 56 182,500
12 199,000
13 47.1 199,000 0 0 Eagles
14 47.1 200,905 1,905 1,905 Dockers
15 47.1 214,835 13,930 15,835 Giants
16 47.1 221,150 6,315 22,150 Lions
17 47.1 225,800 4,650 26,800 Hawks

Other cow stuff: If you think I missed anyone important please let me know in the comments. I keep looking at this various cows not yet included and wonder where all the profit is going to come from. I already started lowering my standards.

Don’t forget the Craggy Island guarantee, all predictions wrong or double your money back!

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8 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 11”

  1. Cheers Father.

    WHE still cracks me up. I jumped on board for 3 weeks at an average of 65 points and $102k profit. So I really should have either a) listened to my own WHE post/analysis from 2 months ago, or b) held on for longer. Regardless, he did what he needed to do to for my end game so no harm done, just get a good chuckle time to time.

    Glad that Turner ended up being the player I promised you, even if you no longer have him, although you can’t be blamed after his first 6 weeks output.

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  2. 2 more weeks for Barrett and Stewart in my side then they’ll be ready to cull, Newman likely to be Lloyd next week

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  3. I am looking to bring cousins in this week Father. Would you recommend I cull D.Lloyd or Myers or SPP?

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    1. Not SPP. I would go with Myers, just because he has made more and there is more chance Lloyd will make more from his lower price. In term of JS I have no idea, aside from what is in the Rookie Review.

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  4. Nice work Padre.

    I should ammend my post to say only Huttabito, Father Dougal and I enjoy the bye rounds!

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