Cow Talk – Round 12

Written by Father Dougal on June 15 2017

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

The second round of the byes was harder than expected. I am really getting tired of the byes. Round 13, with its lack of downgrade options, is looking really brutal.

This week is TV week here at Cow Talk. Write-ups to include the TV show each player most reminds me of, or that I feel like including. Not gonna let myself get humped like I did with the songs! I just had to make all the choices make sense (In Cow Talk, seriously? I know right?) and was working on them for waaaay to long because I am an idiot. Not as much of one as most American Presidents though! (Props to Thommo!)

Standard bits

When looking at projections, remember that a score over or under a player’s current average will affect not just the next week but the ones after it since their average, and thus the projections, will move along with the current week. If you think their current average is not a good predictor of future performance, take that into account when you plan.

Also, don’t forget that any cow is capable of a shock high or low score. Extra so if they have had one in the past. Every week I am reminded how these numbers are just a help in making decisions, and not predictions of what will actually happen.

This season I am including past weeks and more weeks ahead. After spending all that time on growth patterns it would be silly not to include the data needed to see them! I have also put historical numbers in gray, so it is easy to see projections vs reality.

Defenders

Andy Otten Danger Five – An truly epic and excellent first season, followed by an ok but very disappointing in comparison second season. His first six weeks even match the first six episodes in quality, although the 45 is a bit harsh for the first episode. But week two’s 108 = “Lizard Soldiers Of The Third Reich”, week three’s 98 = “Kill-Men Of The Rising Sun” and week four’s 98 = “Hitler’s Golden Murder Palace” and week five’s 101 = the truly epic and awesome “Fresh Meat For Hitler’s Sex Kitchen” ! Week six, ok too. Seriously. Great start, ok finish, that’s Otten. – And time to sell. He managed to not choke last week, but as soon as he comes back he’s due to drop maybe $20k. If you just have not managed to sell him, do so this or next week. Use that cash! One part St. Germain, one part Cherry Heering, one part vodka, one part Pellegrino. Stir gently and serve over ice. The perfect Herring Wallbanger.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next Change
1 45 123,900
2 108 123,900
3 98 123,900
4 98 203,800
5 101 286,300
6 61 344,300
7 69 370,000
8 56 376,400
9 72 360,400
10 121 353,900
11 36 372,200
12 62 376,200
13 375,500 172,700
14 77.3 375,500 0 0 Hawk 172,700
15 77.3 356,027 -19,473 -19,473 Blues 153,227
16 77.3 360,068 4,041 -15,432 Dogs 157,268
17 77.3 369,874 9,806 -5,626 Demons 167,074
18 77.3 377,125 7,251 1,625 Cats 174,325

Thomas Stewart – H2O Just Add Water – Never really great, occasionally bad, mostly mediocre but staying on the air. – Thanks Tom for your last two scores, which means your peak is coming at exactly the right time for you to be downgraded to Luke Ryan when he is on the bubble R14. Assuming no FURL. What a huge FURL it would be if Ryan isn’t named R14. Trying not to think about that. Was hoping I could make a Brigadier Stewart joke here, but didn’t work out. Sadly, he is not as much fun to watch with the sound turned off.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 57 117,300
2 60 117,300
3 22 117,300
4 53 148,900
5 70 170,300
6 68 190,700
7 225,900
8 46 225,900
9 52 249,044
10 91 257,600
11 73 274,400
12 298,300
13 59.2 298,300 Eagles
14 59.2 320,374 22,074 22,074 Dockers
15 59.2 322,481 2,108 24,181 Giants
16 59.2 317,871 -4,611 19,571 Lions
17 59.2 314,461 -3,410 16,161 Hawks

Andrew McGrath Dr. Who – Has its ups and down, and a hiatus in the middle that annoyed a lot of people. Currently on the downswing after a peak. Also, expensive and less profitable due to that – Price could be at the max this and next week. Very likely to drop after R14. Also well timed for Ryan. If you have Stewart as well, then one up and one down!

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 83 211,800
2 56 211,800
3 62 211,800
4 97 246,500
5 82 278,100
6 89 313,200
7 350,700
8 66 350,700
9 59 364,300
10 101 364,400
11 55 369,700
12 61 368,200
13 368,700
14 73.7 368,700 0 0 Swans
15 73.7 357,471 -11,229 -11,229 Lions
16 73.7 357,539 68 -11,161 Pies
17 73.7 363,279 5,740 -5,421 Saints
18 73.7 367,523 4,245 -1,177 Roos

Caleb Marchbank   Buffy the Vampire Slayer- Started off great, steady for a while with a huge peak at the end of season five, then ok until a great last episode. Also, started on an underdog network, much like the Blues….although hopefully he won’t jump to another network/team!  –  The rest must have done him good since he came back with a 95. If you have other defenders to move, keeping him is no issue as he could easily make more cash over the next two weeks.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 97 236,100
2 82 236,100
3 56 236,100
4 74 279,600
5 76 301,100
6 69 314,600
7 108 329,800
8 63 356,700
9 61 370,000
10 70 376,600
11 364,400
12 95 364,400
13 77.4 369,900 Suns
14 77.4 381,889 11,989 11,989 Tigers
15 77.4 394,047 12,158 24,147 Crows
16 77.4 395,153 1,106 25,253 Demons
17 77.4 395,972 818 26,072 Dogs
18 77.4 396,577 605 26,677 Lions

Nick Newman – Father Ted – Because he is my favorite, and when he is on he is better than anyone else. He scored a 151! If you haven’t watched Father Ted, dang it, you should. Also, I’m in it. Well, Father Dougal is – I can just imagine him putting up a huge score R13 just to mess up people planning to sell him R14. I wonder how many coaches plan to swap him for Lloyd after this round?  A lot I bet. You know you want to. Go on, go on, go on, go on, go on, go on!

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 123,900
2 73 123,900
3 105 123,900
4 80 126,900
5 206,700
6 59 206,700
7 261,400
8 151 261,400
9 93 322,000
10 72 372,900
11 416,000
12 89 416,000
13 86.0 420,500 Tigers
14 86.0 421,381 881 881 Bombers
15 86.0 428,290 6,910 7,790 Demons
16 86.0 432,059 3,769 11,559 Suns
17 86.0 434,846 2,787 14,346 Giants
18 86.0 436,907 2,061 16,407 Saints

 

Midfielders

Sam Powell-Pepper  – Miss Fisher’s Murder Mysteries – Some highs some lows, but gets the job done, week after week. – Has never gone backwards in value, and likely to mange that until next week when people will start culling him. He has pretty much peaked but is likely to hold his value and there is no urgency to trading him out right now. No reason to hold him past R13 either. Thank you for being around all three bye rounds.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 78 135,300
2 90 135,300
3 51 135,300
4 41 198,000
5 55 227,500
6 97 233,800
7 60 258,700
8 70.0 285,700
9 311,900
10 55 311,900
11 88 312,600
12 60 325,200
13 67.7 330,700 Lions
14 67.7 340,993 10,293 10,293 Pies
15 67.7 339,542 -1,451 8,842 Tigers
16 67.7 341,923 2,381 11,223 Eagles
17 67.7 343,684 1,761 12,984 Roos
18 67.7 344,986 1,302 14,286 Demons

Jake Barrett – Blackadder – Started off a little slowly season one, ok but almost canceled, then excellent once it came back for three more increasingly good seasons, plus specials! Another one I encourage you to watch, but not the first season until you have seem the rest – Another one back with a bang! I have a cunning plan. Two more weeks of growth, and then sell him off like the socks of the prince regent and run with the cash.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 46 127,900
2 50 127,900
3 74 127,900
4 170,600
5 170,600
6 170,600
7 60 170,600
8 59 208,200
9 87 239,600
10 77 268,800
11 297,800
12 97.0 297,800
13 68.8 336,400 Power
14 68.8 357,289 20,889 20,889 Giants
15 68.8 369,048 11,759 32,648 Bombers
16 68.8 365,114 -3,933 28,714 Cats
17 68.8 362,206 -2,909 25,806 Tigers
18 68.8 360,055 -2,151 23,655 Blues

Jarrod Berry – Pacific Heat- Because it is sometimes painful to watch and I sort of wonder how it didn’t get cancelled after the first few episodes. Also, after the first few weeks I stopped paying any attention to it, just like Berry! – A surprise high score of 84! I don’t really trust him but that score gives his owners time to see what else he does while his price is rising. He hasn’t been that bad since week six really, but I just have never felt good about him. I have to say there may be no good reason for that so I wouldn’t make decisions based on my inexplicable antipathy for him.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 139,800
2 139,800
3 32 139,800
4 29 139,800
5 14 139,800
6 62 136,900
7 60 147,900
8 71 170,000
9 75 211,400
10 48 248,000
11 269,500
12 84 269,500
13 52.8 291,400 Power
14 52.8 298,095 6,695 6,695 Giants
15 52.8 305,181 7,087 13,781 Bombers
16 52.8 296,464 -8,717 5,064 Cats
17 52.8 290,018 -6,446 -1,382 Tigers
18 52.8 285,251 -4,767 -6,149 Blues


Tim Taranto – Dark Matter -Because you never know what will happen next.  Also, I like Dark Matter and this is my chance to fit it in, and I can’t think of a better show for Timmy. Oh! Lassie, Timmy is in trouble? He lost his memory? Time to Dunk the Cosmic Donut with Ruby Rose! He might not get his memory back but so what….. – That 45 was better than a donut, cosmic or otherwise, but it sure put a hurting on his value growth. If he does not go down in value his owners will be lucky. I would be tempted to get out while the getting is good.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 44 207,300
2 75 207,300
3 49 207,300
4 60 228,300
5 250,800
6 86 250,800
7 66 272,100
8 82 295,700
9 81 322,400
10 72 340,100
11 85 355,700
12 45 368,100
13 362,000
14 67.7 362,000 0 0 Lions
15 67.7 356,093 -5,907 -5,907 Cats
16 67.7 344,002 -12,090 -17,998 Hawks
17 67.7 345,222 1,219 -16,778 Swans
18 67.7 344,649 -573 -17,351 Tigers

Rucks

Jarrod Witts –  The Simpsons – Good when not great, a real gem. Brought him back just so I had a player worthy of being the Simpsons. And, like them, he could easily stay for a really long time!


Forwards

Kayne “Shonky Smurf” Turner The Muppet Show! – Because picking the Smurfs would be too easy. And he’s a bleeping Muppet! Well, not really, I’m still bitter. So, anyways, during the first season they were still figuring everything out while being ok, but once they got going the Muppet show did well. Fits Turner. I regret when I cancelled him; guess I make a bad Operations. He may have to go if he does not have a good week. Clearly needs to be kept for R13, since he is playing. After that he is very expendable. Bring on Crazy Harry and let things take their natural course.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 56 171,400
2 71 171,400
3 55 171,400
4 49 208,100
5 41 231,800
6 61 236,100
7 86 241,600
8 72 262,400
9 87 291,100
10 80 324,200
11 55 345,800
12 353,600
13 64.8 353,600 Saints
14 64.8 353,498 -102 -102 Dogs
15 64.8 343,953 -9,545 -9,647 Suns
16 64.8 341,284 -2,669 -12,316 Dockers
17 64.8 339,310 -1,974 -14,290 Power
18 64.8 337,850 -1,460 -15,750 Bombers

Will Hoskin-Elliot – Farscape – Started strongly and did well for a good while, with some really outstanding episodes. Finish was a little weak, thanks to bad management. – Seems to have leveled off. No rush to get rid of him due to his value, just the normal rush to use the cash he has made. The fact that there is dren for downgrade options for him has left me and many other totally frelled this week.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 88 213,300
2 120 213,300
3 71 213,300
4 70 282,500
5 51 325,200
6 125 326,200
7 65 350,500
8 75 366,500
9 71 388,400
10 64 380,900
11 90 374,700
12 62 376,200
13 374,200
14 79.3 374,200 Power
15 79.3 380,138 5,938 5,938 Hawks
16 79.3 379,761 -377 5,561 Bombers
17 79.3 387,230 7,470 13,030 Suns
18 79.3 392,754 5,524 18,554 Eagles

Daniel ButlerBlack Mirror – because he always finds a way to be upsetting and disturbing! – Apparently he is back? Still has money to make, especially with a good score. Re-assess next week. He’ll obscene verb us somehow. He’s the prime minister and we are….

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 96 123,900
2 65 123,900
3 79 123,900
4 64 198,800
5 64 239,700
6 54 269,600
7 57 280,100
8 36 285,000
9 275,100
10 275,100
11 58.0 275,100
12 270,391
13 63.7 270,391 Swans
14 63.7 279,827 9,436 9,436 Blues
15 63.7 289,785 9,958 19,394 Power
16 63.7 299,682 9,897 29,291 Saints
17 63.7 307,001 7,319 36,610 Lions
18 63.7 312,413 5,412 42,022 Giants

Cam McCarthy – The Venture Brothers  –  The theme of the Venture Brothers is failure.  Need I say more? Yes, because it is a great show that, unlike Cam, gets better and better. But Cam, sorry mate, this year you have been a failure cow wise – If you still own him….hold and hope, and maybe he’ll end up making money. Odds are he is a very reliable backup forward, since it appears he will play no matter how badly he does. He’ll be there, ready to fill in with a 21 or a 28 or  36 when you most need one.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 36 203,600
2 28 203,600
3 53 203,600
4 100 202,800
5 72 230,600
6 78 271,000
7 73 311,500
8 66 329,700
9 61 339,900
10 43 340,100
11 50 326,800
12 21 309,300
13 279,300
14 56.8 279,300 0 0 Cats
15 56.8 263,653 -15,647 -15,647 Saints
16 56.8 255,772 -7,881 -23,528 Roos
17 56.8 265,953 10,181 -13,347 Eagles
18 56.8 273,501 7,549 -5,799 Hawks

Blake Hardwick – True Blood – Because he started off well and then completely fell apart. The first season was great, but each one after that   got a little bit worse until by the end it was barely or even un-watchable. Perhaps because each season after the first got farther and farther from the books; mostly not in good ways. Some things they changed were good, like not killing off Lafayette, but the show’s writers simply were not as good as Charlene Harris. Still, thank you for Vampire Pam – Blah Blah, failed cow, do whatever blah.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 134,900
2 134,900
3 134,900
4 63 134,900
5 65 134,900
6 77 134,900
7 74 191,000
8 32 237,600
9 55 256,800
10 65 261,400
11 52 260,700
12 47 268,700
13 271,600
14 58.9 271,600 0 0 Crows
15 58.9 271,432 -168 -168 Pies
16 58.9 274,388 2,955 2,788 Giants
17 58.9 281,888 7,500 10,288 Cats
18 58.9 287,435 5,547 15,835 Dockers

James Parsons – – The Wiggles – Because he never freaking grew up! – So disappointing. If you have him he might not be worth trading out and be best as a backup. I hope nobody has both him and McCarthy.  Makes me want to use language not suitable for children.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 117,300
2 117,300
3 60 117,300
4 68 117,300
5 117,300
6 117,300
7 19 117,300
8 38 152,300
9 47 168,000
10 42 170,500
11 56 182,500
12 199,000
13 47.1 199,000 Eagles
14 47.1 201,764 2,764 2,764 Dockers
15 47.1 216,389 14,625 17,389 Giants
16 47.1 223,245 6,856 24,245 Lions
17 47.1 228,315 5,070 29,315 Hawks
18 47.1 232,064 3,749 33,064 Crows

Dan Houston – Firefly – Left us too soon and wanting more. Dang it, had to get Firefly in somehow!

Other cow stuff: Not one cow on the bubble on a bye week. If you can spend bank cash, you are a happy person. If you are looking for cash, even on downgrade, not so good. I am nowhere near as down on risking non-bubble players as most people, so I would encourage people who need downgrades to consider if they can handle a cheap player who lets them harvest a cow for needed cash losing his job and not playing ever again. At this point the “Hotel California” is open for business; many player will come in and never leave. I’m planning to risk Caleb Brown. WHE out for him, before the last match. Brings in much needed money for R14, and I can’t make all three moves I would want to make then anyways. And needing to make three trades in a two trade week is another good reason to risk an early move, if you can make it without price changes being a problem.

But, if you trade your eye out, don’t come typing to me. Remember the Craggy Island guarantee, all predictions wrong or double your money back!

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8 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 12”

  1. Stewart to Lloyd next week, Gonna hold Newman for now doing a good job as a D6, Barrett keeps getting it done 🙂

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  2. Since Berry’s horrendous first three games he has actually averaged 67. I picked him up at $170k so not a bad price increase and output for 4 games.
    Do you have any idea what his price rise is likely to be over 2-4 weeks at 67 points a game?

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    1. He’s currently $291.4k but these will be rough prices over the next 4 weeks scoring 67:
      $304k, $322k, $327k and $331k

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  3. Come on Father Dougal, we can’t have our writers going on tangents. Stick to Supercoach topics please. 😉

    By the way, did you watch Serenity, the movie completion of Firefly?

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