Small or far away – Father Dougal on cows.
The next four weeks are when we need our cows the most. Well, not them exactly, but rather the sweet, sweet money we get from the sale of their ripe bodies. Or in some cases their unripe bodies. Or in a few their points, since getting 18 on the field each week during the bye rounds can be a real bear.
Defenders
McDonald-Tipungwuti is still pumping out good scores with an 80 for last round. He’s ripe and ready, with little growth left. A big score will of course give him and bump, and a bad one a dip. Harvest him now or on his bye, however works for you.
At his current and barely changed from last week average of 76.63:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
| 387,989 | 3,189 | 3,189 | Hawks |
| 387,969 | -20 | 3,169 | Giants |
| —— | |||
| 386,472 | -1,497 | 1,672 | Eagles |
Adams plays for the Dogs, not the Pies, and I completely spaced last week not catching it was the Collingwood Adams that was injured. D’oh, sorry about that. Numbers still worked though, as did he, putting out a nice 85. He’ll keep growing up to his bye and probably beyond, although more slowly as time passes. I’m not sure if I’ll end up trading him out at all, he may be a great D7 if you can afford to keep him. Maybe even a D6 for the trade poor. At his current and also barely changed average of 86.11:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
| 384,665 | 14,265 | 14,265 | Power |
| 396,080 | 11,415 | 25,680 | Cats |
| —— | |||
| 404,959 | 8,880 | 34,559 | Swans |
M. Brown goes up and down and down with more down. Do you feel lucky coach? Well do ya? He does play the Dockers next. That does make me feel a bit lucky, so yeah, I do now that I think about it. D’oh again, he scored another 29 and managed to miss his BE of only 51, which shouldn’t have been that hard to hit. His new break even is 99, which is over his best score this season. Somehow I don’t think he’s going to make that playing the Hawks. He needs to be harvested before he can bleed out more cash. At his current average of 57.37:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
| 271,553 | -18,547 | -18,547 | Hawks |
| 262,928 | -8,625 | -27,172 | Giants |
| —— | |||
| 269,088 | 6,160 | -21,012 | Eagles |
Dea Sell now or sell next week. Not a lot of risk holding one more week with a 43 BE. Indeed, he went for 48 and managed to avoid dropping last week. Sell now because that 126 leaves his system and his BE of 121 looks like a big smidge more than he is going to score vs the Hawks. At his current average of 72.45:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
| 361,321 | -22,079 | -22,079 | Hawks |
| 350,580 | -10,740 | -32,820 | Giants |
| —— | |||
| 353,463 | 2,883 | -29,937 | Eagles |
Hartley did not play
Price Change Total Change Opponent
Byrne did play but only scored 49 again. BE of just 29, so certainly some upside still. Unless he goes mad next week he looks like a prime harvest over his bye. At his current average of 69.88:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
| 335,103 | 17,603 | 17,603 | Saints |
| ——- | |||
| 329,478 | -5,625 | 11,978 | Giants |
| 334,542 | 5,065 | 17,042 | Pies |
Weitering If you still have him at this point I’d be inclined to hold him and see where he is at his bye. Finally, advice that looks good in hindsight! Pumped out his 2nd ton and made the dollars with more on the way. If he just hits his average then it is a big decision as far as keep or trade at his bye. Another good score and its time to ride the big blue A-frame to profit, another 23 or 38 and its time to bail. At his current average of 63.56:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
| 327,093 | 28,093 | 28,093 | Saints |
| ——- | |||
| 349,750 | 22,656 | 50,750 | Giants |
| 341,088 | -8,662 | 42,088 | Pies |
Byrne-Jones has a BE of just 35, so looks likely to make some money up to his bye, when its hammer (to the head) time. Not the other Hammer Time; I deny even knowing about that, and I was young and drunk at the time. Early hopes that he would be a season keeper have not really panned out, but he’s made enough cash to pay for a big entourage if your into that sort of thing. At his current average of 75.56
Price Change Total Change Opponent
| 345,397 | 17,297 | 17,297 | Dogs |
| 352,627 | 7,230 | 24,527 | Dockers |
| —— | |||
| 359,067 | 6,440 | 30,967 | Lions |
Midfielders
Hewett had a BE of 22, which he missed, thanks to another bad session of injury roulette. My write up of Hartley last week was NOT a challenge to the rest of the league, really. You can stop the early in the match injuries any time, with any time meaning immediately. He hasn’t made us much, and now I worry he never will. Holding him long term is a, well, long term gamble. With his not very high price set to plummet, I’d trade him out before he plays again if you can spare the trade, otherwise he could hang around a long time. At his current average of 56.1:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
| 264,361 | -17,312 | -17,312 | Giants |
| 248,596 | -15,765 | -33,076 | Demons |
| —— | |||
| 256,884 | 8,287 | -24,789 | Dogs |
Parish is ripe and ready. His BE of 65 is about his average of 70.6 and he is pretty much priced to his average. Trade Mr. Dull out now or at his bye. (Tempting fate with that bit, but what the heck, I don’t own him!) At his current average of 70.6:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
| 321,616 | 1,916 | 1,916 | Hawks |
| 324,610 | 2,995 | 4,910 | Giants |
| —— | |||
| 331,923 | 7,313 | 12,223 | Eagles |
Mills did not play.
Price Change Total Change Opponent
Davis gave hope last week, then I saw his score and now I’m a believer! He had a very disappointing start to the season but that was then, this is now. And oh my my his is BE is -10! He plays the Tigers this pleasant valley Sunday after which he’ll be my stepping stone to a premium. I’ll get to full premo soon, yes I will. My mid-price madness fail has turned me into a star collector. Sadly, his price looks likely to be goin’ down soon after his bye, although projections more than a few weeks out are only shades of gray rather than black or white; At his current average of 60.125:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
| 304,489 | 30,589 | 30,589 | Tigers |
| ——- | |||
| 313,807 | 9,318 | 39,907 | Hawks |
| 310,135 | -3,672 | 36,235 | Saints |
Oliver is rapidly closing in on his price for his average. With a BE of just 39 he looks like a good “sell at the bye” guy. At his current average of 68.625:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
| 329,778 | 12,778 | 12,778 | Pies |
| 333,276 | 3,498 | 16,276 | Swans |
| —— | |||
| 335,681 | 2,406 | 18,681 | Crows |
J Smith should be able to get a decent amount over $300,000 with more time, and even with a bland 65 last week that seems still true. I’m thinking he may have to go at his bye but if he has a monster score next week that can be rethought. And he does play on the difficult R14, so if you are in need of warm bodies that week it does not, not looking too bad to hold onto him until the byes are done. Next week will clue us in I hope. At his current average of 72.29:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
| 318899 | 14,099 | 14,099 | Demons |
| —— | |||
| 326,743 | 7,844 | 21,943 | Dockers |
| 335,719 | 8,976 | 30,919 | Blues |
Rucks
Cox may have saved Goldstein’s owners a donut last week, and might do the same for NicNat’s owners this week. He’s not making big cash but is making some, and he seems pretty secure in the best 22. (Hope I’m not jinxing that.) At his current average of 63:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
| 275568 | 4,968 | 4,968 | Demons |
| —— | |||
| 286,271 | 10,702 | 15,671 | Dockers |
| 293,696 | 7,426 | 23,096 | Blues |
Forwards
Kerridge had a wonderful 126 last week and really pumped up the volume on his price-O-meter. Another R13 bye player with awkwardly timed peak value. Sell at the bye, or hold longer? If he puts out another big score this week it may make sense to wait until the byes are done to cull him; assuming he gets culled at all. His average is up to 87.55 and while that is not the 100+ we want in our starting 6 forwards, it comes without a trade being used. I can see that either way. At his current average of 87.55:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
| 430,785 | 13,485 | 13,485 | Saints |
| ——- | |||
| 449,310 | 18,525 | 32,010 | Giants |
| 445,980 | -3,330 | 28,680 | Pies |
Kennedy did not play:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
Papley did not play and if he is not back soon may be dropped from the post.
Price Change Total Change Opponent
McCarthy finally played another match; the cat came back! If you held him this long keep holding him; his price will go up when that 15 leaves his TRA. At his current average of 56.14:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
| 235156 | -11,144 | -11,144 | Roos |
| 245128 | 9,971 | -1,172 | Dogs |
| 255196 | 10,068 | 8,896 | Saints |
| ——- |
Cockatoo did not play and is dropped from the post until he shows back up.
Menadue did not play.
Price Change Total Change Opponent
McGovern seems to be topping out. And now seems to have topped out. I’d hold one more week and hope he doesn’t go full DEVO in the week before his R13 bye. At his current average of 59.91:
Price Change Total Change Opponent
| 303,823 | 123 | 123 | Eagles |
| ——- | |||
| 301,669 | -2,153 | -2,031 | Roos |
| 300,928 | -741 | -2,772 | Demons |
Petracca joins us, thank you Freo Tragic
Price Change Total Change Opponent
| 324,505 | 12,405 | 12,405 | Pies |
| 344,567 | 20,061 | 32,467 | Swans |
| —— | |||
| 353,510 | 8,943 | 41,410 | Crows |
Random Cow Thoughts
As always, please let me know if I missed someone or otherwise messed something up.
All trading should be heavily Bye focused from now until R15 is done. I expect that is not news to anyone.
I hope nobody has Brown and Dea and Hewett; we don’t often see three guys all poised to suffer big losses in the same week. If you do have the whole set, I’ll say a prayer for you.
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As always, I thank you for the analysis. I do not thank you for the image of harem pants beneath a cassock.
You are welcome and oh dear, indeed. At least you never saw father Jack’s “Bowie phase.”
He He.
Hammer Time.
You seem to be back in fine form again Father. Bless you.
Just want to mention the the enigma that is D Gorringe
I bought him in on the bubble last week to cover Goldie.
He scored a very respectable 92.
He is averaging 72 and has a break even of just 11.
He may find himself on the field if Nic Nat doesn’t get up this week
He also gives me 2 rucks on field all through the Byes.
Fingers crossed he keep getting a game for the much improved blues.
After the byes I plan to upgrade him to Tippett/ Lycett.
Thanks again for the awesome write up.
I look forward to it every week.
Dea gone this week. I think I’m going to hold on Brown until his round 14 bye then he will be upgraded to Rance. It will cost me some dollars but I don’t want to trade in Rance the week before his bye. Heres hoping he surprises every one and gets 80 odd this week and next.
Thank you! I’m finally back to norm, er, full health. Thanks for the pointer on Gorrdige.
Forgive me Father
Is Petracca not another cow that may be ready to harvest around his r14 bye?
Or is everyone planning to keep him as dpp swing F7 or M9?
Thanks again.
Personally I have more than enough DPPs between the MIDs & FWDs (Wells, Greene, Hall & Barlow). For that reason, I don’t think Petracca will be in my side after the Bye Rounds……….
What about on your Mids bench?
I plan on having all my 8 mids as mid only premiums with a ddp on my mids bench. There just doesn’t seem to be to many M/F rookies coming through this year. I have Barlow,Wells,Kerridge. and Dusty as M/F and Wingard in my forwards and want to add Zorko . Then maybe upgrade Kerridge to Doll house or Lids.It seems a bit of a waste to play a M/F premo at M8.
Petracca seems like perfect M9 candidate to me.
I’d be interested to here other theories on this?
I see Barlow or Greene as the perfect loophole options for F7/M9. Capable of a big ton, but moe likely than not, happy to leave their 60-70 sitting on the bench 😉
I will most probably be keeping Petracca either as a F6 or a M9,depending on how my fwds go,at the moment I’m only really happy with Dusty,Wells and Kerridge as keepers,so Petracca could fit quite well as a F6.Looking at Zorko and Buddy/Dahlhaus to make up the other two places.
Oh Fiddlesticks, I meant to add Petracca this week and forgot. I’ll put him in.
Keeping him.
Sounds like you are a Daydream Believer of Ryan Davis. But we want continued high scores and not just Words. However, if he is still in your team after the byes he might be thinking to himself What am I doing hangin’ round!
(The Monkees were a manufactured band but still put out some great songs. Not just takin’ the Mickey (Dolenz))!!
Oh what a feeling when someone gets the obscure (?) stuff 🙂
Indeed, they were sort of the first boy band, but had actual talent and songs that have endured.
Love the reply in the same style. Cooperative humor, a little bit me and a little bit you!
I’m trying not to Listen To The Band (wagon) about Ryan Davis, but For Pete’s Sake changes have to be made. Don’t Listen to Linda – get off the Last Train (to Clarkesville) and ditch him – he was just a Stepping Stone.
Theres a lot of (peter) tork going on.
THERES A LOT OF (PETER ) TORK GOING ON.
Added Petracca!