Small or far away – Father Dougal on cows.

The next four weeks are when we need our cows the most. Well, not them exactly, but rather the sweet, sweet money we get from the sale of their ripe bodies. Or in some cases their unripe bodies. Or in a few their points, since getting 18 on the field each week during the bye rounds can be a real bear.

Defenders

McDonald-Tipungwuti is still pumping out good scores with an 80 for last round. He’s ripe and ready, with little growth left. A big score will of course give him and bump, and a bad one a dip. Harvest him now or on his bye, however works for you.

At his current and barely changed from last week average of 76.63:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

387,989	3,189	3,189	Hawks
387,969	-20	3,169	Giants
			——
386,472	-1,497	1,672	Eagles

Adams plays for the Dogs, not the Pies, and I completely spaced last week not catching it was the Collingwood Adams  that was injured. D’oh, sorry about that. Numbers still worked though, as did he, putting out a nice 85. He’ll keep growing up to his bye and probably beyond, although more slowly as time passes. I’m not sure if I’ll end up trading him out at all, he may be a great D7 if you can afford to keep him. Maybe even a D6 for the trade poor. At his current and also barely changed average of 86.11:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

384,665	14,265	14,265	Power
396,080	11,415	25,680	Cats
			——
404,959	8,880	34,559	Swans

M. Brown goes up and down and down with more down. Do you feel lucky coach? Well do ya?  He does play the Dockers next. That does make me feel a bit lucky, so yeah, I do now that I think about it. D’oh again, he scored another 29 and managed to miss his BE of only 51, which shouldn’t have been that hard to hit. His new break even is 99, which is over his best score this season. Somehow I don’t think he’s going to make that playing the Hawks. He needs to be harvested before he can bleed out more cash. At his current average of 57.37:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

271,553	-18,547	-18,547	Hawks
262,928	-8,625	-27,172	Giants
			——
269,088	6,160	-21,012	Eagles

Dea  Sell now or sell next week. Not a lot of risk holding one more week with a 43 BE. Indeed, he went for 48 and managed to avoid dropping last week. Sell now because that 126 leaves his system and his BE of 121 looks like a big smidge more than he is going to score vs the Hawks. At his current average of 72.45:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

361,321	-22,079	-22,079	Hawks
350,580	-10,740	-32,820	Giants
			——
353,463	2,883	-29,937	Eagles

Hartley did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Byrne did play but only scored 49 again. BE of just 29, so certainly some upside still. Unless he goes mad next week he looks like a prime harvest over his bye. At his current average of 69.88:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

335,103	17,603	17,603	Saints
			——-
329,478	-5,625	11,978	Giants
334,542	5,065	17,042	Pies

Weitering If you still have him at this point I’d be inclined to hold him and see where he is at his bye. Finally, advice that looks good in hindsight! Pumped out his 2nd ton and made the dollars with more on the way. If he just hits his average then it is a big decision as far as keep or trade at his bye. Another good score and its time to ride the big blue A-frame to profit, another 23 or 38 and its time to bail. At his current average of 63.56:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

327,093	28,093	28,093	Saints
			——-
349,750	22,656	50,750	Giants
341,088	-8,662	42,088	Pies

Byrne-Jones has a BE of just 35, so looks likely to make some money up to his bye, when its hammer (to the head) time. Not the other Hammer Time; I deny even knowing about that, and I was young and drunk at the time.  Early hopes that he would be a season keeper have not really panned out, but he’s made enough cash to pay for a big entourage if your into that sort of thing. At his current average of 75.56

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

345,397	17,297	17,297	Dogs
352,627	7,230	24,527	Dockers
			——
359,067	6,440	30,967	Lions

Midfielders

Hewett had a BE of 22, which he missed, thanks to another bad session of injury roulette. My write up of Hartley last week was NOT a challenge to the rest of the league, really. You can stop the early in the match injuries any time, with any time meaning immediately. He hasn’t made us much, and now I worry he never will. Holding him long term is a, well, long term gamble. With his not very high price set to plummet, I’d trade him out before he plays again if you can spare the trade, otherwise he could hang around a long time. At his current average of 56.1:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

264,361	-17,312	-17,312	Giants
248,596	-15,765	-33,076	Demons
			——
256,884	8,287	-24,789	Dogs

Parish is ripe and ready. His BE of 65 is about his average of 70.6 and he is pretty much priced to his average. Trade Mr. Dull out now or at his bye. (Tempting fate with that bit, but what the heck, I don’t own him!)  At his current average of 70.6:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

321,616	1,916	1,916	Hawks
324,610	2,995	4,910	Giants
			——
331,923	7,313	12,223	Eagles

Mills did not play.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Davis gave hope last week, then I saw his score and now I’m a believer! He had a very disappointing start to the season but that was then, this is now. And oh my my his is BE is -10! He plays the Tigers this pleasant valley Sunday after which he’ll be my stepping stone to a premium.  I’ll get to full premo soon, yes I will. My mid-price madness fail has turned me into a star collector. Sadly, his price looks likely to be goin’ down soon after his bye, although projections more than a few weeks out are only shades of gray rather than black or white;  At his current average of  60.125:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

304,489	30,589	30,589	Tigers
			——-
313,807	9,318	39,907	Hawks
310,135	-3,672	36,235	Saints

Oliver is rapidly closing in on his price for his average. With a BE of just 39 he looks like a good “sell at the bye” guy. At his current average of 68.625:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

329,778	12,778	12,778	Pies
333,276	3,498	16,276	Swans
			——
335,681	2,406	18,681	Crows

J Smith should be able to get a decent amount over $300,000 with more time, and even with a bland 65 last week that seems still true. I’m thinking he may have to go at his bye but if he has a monster score next week that can be rethought. And he does play on the difficult R14, so if you are in need of warm bodies that week it does not, not looking too bad to hold onto him until the byes are done. Next week will clue us in I hope. At his current average of 72.29:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

318899	14,099	14,099	Demons
			——
326,743	7,844	21,943	Dockers
335,719	8,976	30,919	Blues

Rucks

Cox may have saved Goldstein’s owners a donut last week, and might do the same for NicNat’s owners this week. He’s not making big cash but is making some, and he seems pretty secure in the best 22. (Hope I’m not jinxing that.)  At his current average of 63:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

275568	4,968	4,968	Demons
			——
286,271	10,702	15,671	Dockers
293,696	7,426	23,096	Blues

Forwards

Kerridge had a wonderful 126 last week and really pumped up the volume on his price-O-meter. Another R13 bye player with awkwardly timed peak value. Sell at the bye, or hold longer? If he puts out another big score this week it may make sense to wait until the byes are done to cull him; assuming he gets culled at all. His average is up to 87.55 and while that is not the 100+ we want in our starting 6 forwards, it comes without a trade being used. I can see that either way.  At his current average of 87.55:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

430,785	13,485	13,485	Saints
			——-
449,310	18,525	32,010	Giants
445,980	-3,330	28,680	Pies

Kennedy did not play:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Papley did not play and if he is not back soon may be dropped from the post.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

McCarthy finally played another match; the cat came back! If you held him this long keep holding him; his price will go up when that 15 leaves his TRA. At his current average of 56.14:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

235156	-11,144	-11,144	Roos
245128	9,971	-1,172	Dogs
255196	10,068	8,896	Saints
			——-

Cockatoo did not play and is dropped from the post until he shows back up.

Menadue did not play.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

McGovern seems to be topping out. And now seems to have topped out. I’d hold one more week and hope he doesn’t go full DEVO in the week before his R13 bye.  At his current average of 59.91:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

303,823	123	123	Eagles
			——-
301,669	-2,153	-2,031	Roos
300,928	-741	-2,772	Demons

Petracca joins us, thank you Freo Tragic

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

324,505	12,405	12,405	Pies
344,567	20,061	32,467	Swans
			——
353,510	8,943	41,410	Crows

Random Cow Thoughts

As always, please let me know if I missed someone or otherwise messed something up.

All trading should be heavily Bye focused from now until R15 is done. I expect that is not news to anyone.

I hope nobody has Brown and Dea and Hewett; we don’t often see three guys all poised to suffer big losses in the same week. If you do have the whole set, I’ll say a prayer for you.

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