Cow Talk – Round 14

Written by Father Dougal on June 28 2017

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Well, what a week that was. We have weeks like that every year, but they usually don’t happen right after the byes, spoiling the whole “I get my whole team back” vibe.

This week, I compare all the cows to types of donut. Hah, not a chance! The last thing any of us need is more donuts.

A lot of coaches are in that weird place where we don’t have 22 real premiums, but we do have 22 players who are not in immediate need of replacing or at risk of a cow-like 30 score, like Newman in back, Scooter in the mids, Witts in Ruck, and Nankervis or Greenwood up forward. Not full premo, but still something. I’m gonna call it “full-pseudo.” It’s like full-premo light, sort of a full premo substitute. Lloyd in the mids will average 15 less than we really want, but he sure beats Barrett.

Standard bits

When looking at projections, remember that a score over or under a player’s current average will affect not just the next week but the ones after it since their average, and thus the projections, will move along with the current week. If you think their current average is not a good predictor of future performance, take that into account when you plan.

Also, don’t forget that any cow is capable of a shock high or low score. Extra so if they have had one in the past. Every week I am reminded how these numbers are just a help in making decisions, and not predictions of what will actually happen.

This season I am including past weeks and more weeks ahead. After spending all that time on growth patterns it would be silly not to include the data needed to see them! I have also put historical numbers in gray, so it is easy to see projections vs reality.

Defenders

Andy Otten –  Sell him now or he makes you his, um….sad owner – Well, I hope you sold him now, er, then. Last week I mean, or you’re a sad owner. He had “trade me” tattooed on his forehead for weeks, I hope you did. If not, he looks ready to go down more.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 45 123,900
2 108 123,900
3 98 123,900
4 98 203,800
5 101 286,300
6 61 344,300
7 69 370,000
8 56 376,400
9 72 360,400
10 121 353,900
11 36 372,200
12 62 376,200
13 375,500
14 47 375,500
15 74.9 341,900 Blues
16 74.9 334,367 -7,533 -7,533 Dogs
17 74.9 334,573 206 -7,327 Demons
18 74.9 347,182 12,609 5,282 Cats
19 74.9 356,488 9,305 14,588 Pies
20 74.9 363,355 6,867 21,455 Power

Thomas Stewart – #16  Mr Boddy: Clue – Oh dear, I may have cursed him. At least he is only mostly dead. Meaning he is from a fantasy point of view, at least for this season.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 57 117,300
2 60 117,300
3 22 117,300
4 53 148,900
5 70 170,300
6 68 190,700
7 225,900
8 46 225,900
9 52 249,044
10 91 257,600
11 73 274,400
12 298,300
13 74 298,300
14 48 326,300
15 59.5 327,800 Giants
16 59.5 322,880 -4,920 -4,920 Lions
17 59.5 312,781 -10,099 -15,019 Hawks
18 59.5 310,459 -2,323 -17,341 Crows
19 59.5 308,744 -1,714 -19,056 Blues
20 59.5 307,480 -1,265 -20,320 Swans

Andrew McGrath   He is also at what could be his peak selling price three price weeks after his R10 101.  – That would be a yes. Owch. More losses on the way. Another one I hope you traded out before now.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 83 211,800
2 56 211,800
3 62 211,800
4 97 246,500
5 82 278,100
6 89 313,200
7 350,700
8 66 350,700
9 59 364,300
10 101 364,400
11 55 369,700
12 61 368,200
13 368,700
14 45 368,700
15 71.3 344,000 Lions
16 71.3 332,977 -11,023 -11,023 Pies
17 71.3 329,452 -3,525 -14,548 Saints
18 71.3 338,599 9,147 -5,401 Roos
19 71.3 345,349 6,750 1,349 Dogs
20 71.3 350,330 4,981 6,330 Blues

Caleb Marchbank    He is going to be hard pressed to go up in value, so can probably be sold anytime  – Yeah, dropped some, although not tragically much. Looks like a sell today if you don’t need him on the field. If you do it’s not a disaster, and he could make back what he lost. Could, not will mind you.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 97 236,100
2 82 236,100
3 56 236,100
4 74 279,600
5 76 301,100
6 69 314,600
7 108 329,800
8 63 356,700
9 61 370,000
10 70 376,600
11 364,400
12 95 364,400
13 55 369,900
14 60 371,200
15 74.3 367,700 Crows
16 74.3 355,809 -11,891 -11,891 Demons
17 74.3 355,647 -162 -12,053 Dogs
18 74.3 361,911 6,264 -5,789 Lions
19 74.3 366,533 4,622 -1,167 Cats
20 74.3 369,945 3,411 2,245 Bombers

Midfielders

Sam Powell-Pepper – He also has a purrrfect record of going up in price ever single round – Still does, well done mate. Odds are he goes up again after this round. Three 80+ scores in the last four rounds. He is not  close to good enough to keep in the mids, but he might well be the last cow to go, at least of those cows who are going to be going.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 78 135,300
2 90 135,300
3 51 135,300
4 41 198,000
5 55 227,500
6 97 233,800
7 60 258,700
8 70.0 285,700
9 311,900
10 55 311,900
11 88 312,600
12 60 325,200
13 85 330,700
14 82 348,100
15 70.2 358,200 Tigers
16 70.2 370,144 11,944 11,944 Eagles
17 70.2 372,334 2,191 14,134 Roos
18 70.2 368,666 -3,668 10,466 Demons
19 70.2 365,959 -2,707 7,759 Saints
20 70.2 363,962 -1,998 5,762 Crows

Sammo Petrevski-Seton Don’t think about it too hard or you too could go mad….– Price dropping like a heavy stone thing that has been dropped from a great height, right over the head of one of his remaining owners.  Soon to be $100,000 down from his high price. Get while the getting is good. Well, too late, but get before the getting gets worse.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 59 189,300
2 51 189,300
3 116 189,300
4 49 240,900
5 49 274,400
6 78 298,400
7 134 298,700
8 59 337,200
9 58 369,500
10 26 384,700
11 347,700
12 347,700
13 64 347,700
14 32 322,700
15 64.6 292,700 Crows
16 64.6 287,646 -5,054 -5,054 Demons
17 64.6 284,177 -3,469 -8,523 Dogs
18 64.6 296,152 11,976 3,452 Lions
19 64.6 304,990 8,838 12,290 Cats
20 64.6 311,513 6,522 18,813 Bombers

Jake Barrett –  What have you scored, Jake? You’ve scored nothing! NOTHIIIING! And I will be a lion’s uncle if I let you ruin this for me, because if you can’t get the job done, then I will trade you out for a real premium! – Couldn’t get the job done and I am trading him for a real premium.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 46 127,900
2 50 127,900
3 74 127,900
4 170,600
5 170,600
6 170,600
7 60 170,600
8 59 208,200
9 87 239,600
10 77 268,800
11 297,800
12 97.0 297,800
13 54 336,400
14 32 350,000
15 63.6 340,000 Bombers
16 63.6 317,652 -22,348 -22,348 Cats
17 63.6 305,443 -12,209 -34,557 Tigers
18 63.6 310,531 5,087 -29,469 Blues
19 63.6 314,285 3,754 -25,715 Eagles
20 63.6 317,056 2,771 -22,944 Dogs

Jarrod Berry – But, if you sell this week or next you could get something decent from him. And that tattoo on his chest says “the, Bart the” in German. – And, that tattoo on his forehead says “sell me now.” You could wait to you get home, you don’t have to sell him now. But, if you don’t, be careful of your beak. If you wait until you get home, well, he might have a great game and go up in price.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 139,800
2 139,800
3 32 139,800
4 29 139,800
5 14 139,800
6 62 136,900
7 60 147,900
8 71 170,000
9 75 211,400
10 48 248,000
11 269,500
12 84 269,500
13 44 291,400
14 76 293,500
15 54.1 307,600 Bombers
16 54.1 304,668 -2,932 -2,932 Cats
17 54.1 307,006 2,338 -594 Tigers
18 54.1 298,957 -8,049 -8,643 Blues
19 54.1 293,017 -5,940 -14,583 Eagles
20 54.1 288,634 -4,383 -18,966 Dogs

Tim Taranto Out injured. At least his price will be stable

Scott Selwood  I’m declaring him an honorary cow. I’ve been following his price moves as if he was a cow and so I expect other people will be as well. Trying desperately to come up with a “his uncle owns the theater” joke, but drawing a blank. He has a breakeven of 102, which is not out of reach but not likely, but that 42 leaves his three round average after this week and he should more than make back anything he loses his next price week. I hope that is this week, since I want him to make a bit more before that likely swap to his brother. (Not Uncle.) While he hasn’t made huge cash, or scored huge points, he scored his points at a time when we needed them, and really came through last week just by being on the field. Too soon to be sure, but he may have been worth the trade.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 281,800
2 281,800
3 281,800
4 281,800
5 281,800
6 281,800
7 281,800
8 281,800
9 102 281,800
10 112 281,800
11 101 281,800
12 348,000
13 44 348,000
14 72 371,500
15 86.2 371,000 Giants
16 86.2 363,996 -7,004 -7,004 Lions
17 86.2 377,653 13,658 6,653 Hawks
18 86.2 394,067 16,414 23,067 Crows
19 86.2 406,181 12,113 35,181 Blues
20 86.2 415,120 8,939 44,120 Swans

Rucks

This space intentionally left blank


Forwards

Kayne “Shonky Smurf” Turner – Out injured.

Will Hoskin-Elliot – Wants to turn himself into a reliable forward – And made a good start with that 91.  Trading him out now is like the “I hate Geddy Lee club” No Rush.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 88 213,300
2 120 213,300
3 71 213,300
4 70 282,500
5 51 325,200
6 125 326,200
7 65 350,500
8 75 366,500
9 71 388,400
10 64 380,900
11 90 374,700
12 62 376,200
13 374,200
14 91 374,200
15 80.2 384,600 Hawks
16 80.2 387,876 3,276 3,276 Bombers
17 80.2 398,427 10,551 13,827 Suns
18 80.2 401,409 2,982 16,809 Eagles
19 80.2 403,609 2,200 19,009 Crows
20 80.2 405,233 1,624 20,633 Roos

Daniel Butler –  He could make back what he will lost over the next two weeks quickly  – Could, but didn’t think he would! If he backs up that 76 with a few 60+ scores, he makes it back after two more rounds. I have no idea if you should trade or hold though. Totally depends on your team situation.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 96 123,900
2 65 123,900
3 79 123,900
4 64 198,800
5 64 239,700
6 54 269,600
7 57 280,100
8 36 285,000
9 275,100
10 275,100
11 58 275,100
12 270,391
13 14 270,391
14 76 247,700
15 60.3 248,900 Power
16 60.3 250,723 1,823 1,823 Saints
17 60.3 272,712 21,989 23,812 Lions
18 60.3 281,922 9,211 33,022 Giants
19 60.3 288,720 6,797 39,820 Suns
20 60.3 293,736 5,016 44,836 Hawks

Cam McCarthy –  Cam has had no chance to fail since last week, but he does play this week  – That was a bit harsh, but he grabbed the opportunity to fail again with both hands, on his throat, and held on tight, soooo, harsh but fair. His scores have been so all over the place so who knows what will happen to his price? Just like a key forward really, only scoring 50 points less per game.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 36 203,600
2 28 203,600
3 53 203,600
4 100 202,800
5 72 230,600
6 78 271,000
7 73 311,500
8 66 329,700
9 61 339,900
10 43 340,100
11 50 326,800
12 21 309,300
13 279,300
14 44 279,300
15 60.4 257,400 Saints
16 60.4 245,907 -11,493 -11,493 Roos
17 60.4 255,010 9,103 -2,390 Eagles
18 60.4 269,051 14,042 11,651 Hawks
19 60.4 279,414 10,362 22,014 Giants
20 60.4 287,061 7,647 29,661 Suns

Blake Hardwick –  Both Hardwick and The Evil Midnight Bomber What Bombs at Midnight (Yeah baby Yeah!) have never managed to make something of themselves. Promising starts but no follow though. Oh they try, but they both belong in the sidekicks lounge and not the Comet Club –  Well, prove me wrong why don’t you? After his bye, on or before which most people sold him, he finally pumps out a good score and gives himself a change to make decent cash.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 134,900
2 134,900
3 134,900
4 63 134,900
5 65 134,900
6 77 134,900
7 74 191,000
8 32 237,600
9 55 256,800
10 65 261,400
11 52 260,700
12 47 268,700
13 271,600
14 84 271,600
15 61.4 282,200 Pies
16 61.4 294,092 11,892 11,892 Giants
17 61.4 309,291 15,200 27,091 Cats
18 61.4 310,426 1,135 28,226 Dockers
19 61.4 311,263 837 29,063 Swans
20 61.4 311,881 618 29,681 Tigers

James Parsons –  Parsons has not done much scoring aside from never – Looks like “Prove Me Wrong Two, Electric Boogaloo” But he is still owned by a lot of people who may get to enjoy his price rise. Good question if he will be worth a trade, but he is more likely to be than before. And while it is probably wishful thinking, perhaps last week was a sign of him getting his confidence and raising his game?

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 117,300
2 117,300
3 60 117,300
4 68 117,300
5 117,300
6 117,300
7 19 117,300
8 38 152,300
9 47 168,000
10 42 170,500
11 56 182,500
12 199,000
13 51 199,000
14 82 213,300
15 51.4 241,800 Giants
16 51.4 260,728 18,928 18,928 Lions
17 51.4 274,895 14,167 33,095 Hawks
18 51.4 271,718 -3,177 29,918 Crows
19 51.4 269,374 -2,344 27,574 Blues
20 51.4 267,643 -1,730 25,843 Swans

Dan Houston –  Could easily make $40-50k over the next two weeks while that big score is in his system – Well, more like $30-40k now, but still, great comeback from injury.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 72 117,300
2 81 117,300
3 68 117,300
4 68 185,500
5 73 233,900
6 51 266,300
7 56 282,200
8 288,900
9 288,900
10 288,900
11 288,900
12 288,900
13 90 288,900
14 64 301,100
15 69.2 315,900 Tigers
16 69.2 332,712 16,812 16,812 Eagles
17 69.2 335,849 3,137 19,949 Roos
18 69.2 340,494 4,645 24,594 Demons
19 69.2 343,922 3,428 28,022 Saints
20 69.2 346,452 2,530 30,552 Crows

Hugh Greenwood Wow, lots of cash to come, assuming he keeps that average up –  I’d like to thank Motts and the whole SCT community for making my winning the understatement of the year award possible. His price should go up around $125,000 between my saying that and the 127 leaving his three round average. In a few weeks we’ll find out if he can make steer. He sure looks like a good F6 option right now. Might slow down and just be a F7/M9. Please do not get spud up and derail those lovely, lovely price rises.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 117,300
2 117,300
3 117,300
4 117,300
5 117,300
6 117,300
7 117,300
8 117,300
9 104 117,300
10 72 117,300
11 72 117,300
12 68 196,900
13 240,000
14 127 240,000
15 88.6 296,300 Blues
16 88.6 345,118 48,818 48,818 Dogs
17 88.6 390,326 45,208 94,026 Demons
18 88.6 406,554 16,228 110,254 Cats
19 88.6 418,527 11,974 122,227 Pies
20 88.6 427,362 8,835 131,062 Power

James Stewart – Joins us this week. That 104 means money to make for next week and without a big score this week, not a lot afterwards.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 169,800
2 169,800
3 169,800
4 169,800
5 169,800
6 169,800
7 169,800
8 91 169,800
9 51 169,800
10 50 169,800
11 35 210,900
12 105 215,900
13 244,200
14 51 244,200
15 63.8 265,400 Lions
16 63.8 293,876 28,476 28,476 Pies
17 63.8 296,525 2,649 31,125 Saints
18 63.8 304,203 7,678 38,803 Roos
19 63.8 309,869 5,665 44,469 Dogs
20 63.8 314,049 4,180 48,649 Blues

Other cow stuff:  The Hotel California effect is in full swing now. Almost no chance that downgrade options will ever be sold, so their job security and DPP status are the main concern, as well as their cost, since lower cost means more funds freeded up for use. Someone like Deluca is now a real option even if he never plays again, since he is DPP mid/fwd and only costs $102,400.  Witherden is another one who could be fine even if he loses his job, having def/mid DPP and costing $117,300, although he seems to have decent JS right now.

Other non-cow stuff: The first year I played, there was incredible, unprecedented carnage at the end of the season, leaving managers tragically short on trades. The second year I played, there was incredible, unprecedented carnage at the end of the season, leaving managers tragically short on trades. The third year I played, there was incredible, unprecedented carnage at the end of the season, leaving managers tragically short on trades. This year, there will be incredible, unprecedented carnage at the end of the season, leaving managers tragically short on trades – except that is isn’t really unprecedented, it happens every freaking year! It’s like we all have trauma-induced memory loss about what the end of the season is like. It will be a real challenge, like it always is. Luxury trades are not your friend.

Remember the Craggy Island guarantee, all predictions wrong or double your money back!

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12 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 14”

  1. Thanks Father.

    Bill (Withers) coming in for Stewart this week.

    I would love to keep SPP over Berry but I need the cash to get Bont this week and Gawn R16.

    This will leave me with 6 trades. 1 downgrade. 5 LTIs.

    Not nearly enough, I suspect.

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    1. 5 trades to cover LTIs? Luxury! When all is said and done, I’m likely to end up with 1 (!) to cover LTIs. Two if Sandilands can stay on the park. Three if I end up holding Beams.

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  2. The “non-cow stuff” at the end there may be the most important writing you’ve ever done, FD. Not that the rest of your work isn’t important, just that those dozen or so lines there should come with flashing lights and warning sirens.

    It is too early to be making luxury trades, people!

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    1. Thanks very much. Glad that was helpful. My theme this year appears to be “Trades Are Valuable”. Or maybe “Even if you think they are valuable, trades are more valuable than you think.”

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  3. Ahhhhhhh smooth sailing here on out, the only thing that could stuff me up me is an incredible, unprecedented carnage at the end of the season …… but that will never happen

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  4. Do I break the SC commandment and bring in Witherden (need to offload Barrett) ?

    TU – Trade Approved
    TD – Hold off

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    1. Should I get Taylor Adams or Dylan Roberton. To hard to split. Both have big games this week that are vital to eithers club. Not sure who to get.

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