Cow Talk – Round 15

Written by Father Dougal on July 5 2017

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

Two thirds of the season has past and one third is left. Not yet the home stretch, but we’re sure entering the final turn. Use too few trades and you’re parked out. Use too many and you’ll fade in the stretch. If you have set too fast a pace and are already short of trades, hope for heart from your side and mistakes from your competition.

Standard bits

When looking at projections, remember that a score over or under a player’s current average will affect not just the next week but the ones after it since their average, and thus the projections, will move along with the current week. If you think their current average is not a good predictor of future performance, take that into account when you plan.

Also, don’t forget that any cow is capable of a shock high or low score. Extra so if they have had one in the past. Every week I am reminded how these numbers are just a help in making decisions, and not predictions of what will actually happen.

This season I am including past weeks and more weeks ahead. After spending all that time on growth patterns it would be silly not to include the data needed to see them! I have also put historical numbers in gray, so it is easy to see projections vs reality.

Defenders

Andy Otten –  Sat out last week but looks likely to return as an injury replacement. Shouldn’t lose too much money when he does. Not likely someone people have kept this long, but just in case. I remember hoping he might be a defensive keeper, but turned out to be a purple patch when conditions were perfect for him. Fortunately he had it early when we could use it both on and off the field. Still has the “trade me” tattoo, as he has too much cash in him to let sit for the points you can hope for.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 45 123,900
2 108 123,900
3 98 123,900
4 98 203,800
5 101 286,300
6 61 344,300
7 69 370,000
8 56 376,400
9 72 360,400
10 121 353,900
11 36 372,200
12 62 376,200
13 375,500
14 47 375,500
15 341,900
16 74.9 341,900 Dogs
17 74.9 333,273 -8,627 -8,627 Demons
18 74.9 332,674 -599 -9,226 Cats
19 74.9 344,650 11,976 2,750 Pies
20 74.9 353,459 8,809 11,559 Power

Andrew McGrath –  His 81 will stem the bleeding and maybe even shove some of the blood back in….ick….but he also is ready to go anytime.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 83 211,800
2 56 211,800
3 62 211,800
4 97 246,500
5 82 278,100
6 89 313,200
7 350,700
8 66 350,700
9 59 364,300
10 101 364,400
11 55 369,700
12 61 368,200
13 368,700
14 45 368,700
15 81 344,000
16 72.1 336,200 Pies
17 72.1 335,374 -826 -826 Saints
18 72.1 346,807 11,433 10,607 Roos
19 72.1 351,249 4,442 15,049 Dogs
20 72.1 354,517 3,267 18,317 Blues

 

Caleb Marchbank –   Losses likely to continue short term, with a chance of small recovery medium term. At this point there is no long term. As happens to almost all cows in the end, he is ready to be turned into something more useful, at least from our point of view. Almost certainly not the cows point of view, but that’s what you get for failing to evolve into a form with thumbs.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 97 236,100
2 82 236,100
3 56 236,100
4 74 279,600
5 76 301,100
6 69 314,600
7 108 329,800
8 63 356,700
9 61 370,000
10 70 376,600
11 364,400
12 95 364,400
13 55 369,900
14 60 371,200
15 57 367,700
16 73.1 347,000 Demons
17 73.1 339,759 -7,241 -7,241 Dogs
18 73.1 340,245 486 -6,755 Lions
19 73.1 347,749 7,504 749 Cats
20 73.1 353,268 5,520 6,268 Bombers

 

Midfielders

Sam Powell-Pepper Went up again last round and is pretty likely to go up again next round, although not by a lot. I expect he will peak about $375,000 but he has put up a few big scores and could do so again. Nice to not have to worry about trading before a price collapse, unless I jinxed him just now.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 78 135,300
2 90 135,300
3 51 135,300
4 41 198,000
5 55 227,500
6 97 233,800
7 60 258,700
8 70.0 285,700
9 311,900
10 55 311,900
11 88 312,600
12 60 325,200
13 85 330,700
14 82 348,100
15 73 358,200
16 75.8 370,200 Eagles
17 75.8 374,921 4,721 4,721 Roos
18 75.8 375,623 702 5,423 Demons
19 75.8 377,370 1,748 7,170 Saints
20 75.8 378,656 1,285 8,456 Crows

Sammo Petrevski-Seton – I know better than to say something like “he can’t drop that much more.” Not much job security at the moment, so really little reason to be holding him.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 59 189,300
2 51 189,300
3 116 189,300
4 49 240,900
5 49 274,400
6 78 298,400
7 134 298,700
8 59 337,200
9 58 369,500
10 26 384,700
11 347,700
12 347,700
13 64 347,700
14 32 322,700
15 292,700
16 64.6 292,700 Demons
17 64.6 286,705 -5,995 -5,995 Dogs
18 64.6 282,555 -4,150 -10,145 Lions
19 64.6 293,991 11,436 1,291 Cats
20 64.6 302,403 8,412 9,703 Bombers

Jake Barrett – Couldn’t get the job done and I am trading him for a real premium.  Wow, dodged a bullet there. I doubt anyone saw the 32 and 28 coming. If you do still own him, trade him right now before he drops again, unless you plan to hold him all season. It would take a miracle for him to recover what he has and will lose, and Miracle Max lives in Guilder, or maybe it was Florin…either way, far from Brisbane. 

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 46 127,900
2 50 127,900
3 74 127,900
4 170,600
5 170,600
6 170,600
7 60 170,600
8 59 208,200
9 87 239,600
10 77 268,800
11 297,800
12 97.0 297,800
13 54 336,400
14 32 350,000
15 28 340,000
16 60.4 300,800 Cats
17 60.4 274,779 -26,021 -26,021 Tigers
18 60.4 268,251 -6,528 -32,549 Blues
19 60.4 277,841 9,590 -22,959 Eagles
20 60.4 284,894 7,054 -15,906 Dogs

Jarrod Berry – And, that tattoo on his forehead says “sell me now.” You could wait to you get home, you don’t have to sell him now. But, if you don’t, be careful of your beak. If you wait until you get home, well, he might have a great game and go up in price. If you waited until you got home, you made $2,700! Beats a price drop. Might make more next week, but not looking well after that. It really depends on if he can keep his score up. As with every other ripe cow, I would plan to get while the getting is good.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 139,800
2 139,800
3 32 139,800
4 29 139,800
5 14 139,800
6 62 136,900
7 60 147,900
8 71 170,000
9 75 211,400
10 48 248,000
11 269,500
12 84 269,500
13 44 291,400
14 76 293,500
15 69 307,600
16 55.3 310,300 Cats
17 55.3 317,327 7,027 7,027 Tigers
18 55.3 313,306 -4,021 3,006 Blues
19 55.3 304,271 -9,035 -6,029 Eagles
20 55.3 297,625 -6,646 -12,675 Dogs

 

Scott Selwood  Well, he went and got all cow-like, missing a week and making me put extra work into his spreadsheet. Still likely to go down and then up, if he is not playing hurt. If you can hold him two or more weeks, then he should go up in price. If not, upgrade him this week.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next Change
1 281,800
2 281,800
3 281,800
4 281,800
5 281,800
6 281,800
7 281,800
8 281,800
9 102 281,800
10 112 281,800
11 101 281,800
12 348,000
13 44 348,000
14 72 371,500
15 371,000
16 86.2 371,000 Lions 168,200
17 86.2 362,805 -8,195 -8,195 Hawks 160,005
18 86.2 375,543 12,737 4,543 Crows 172,743
19 86.2 391,226 15,683 20,226 Blues 188,426
20 86.2 402,762 11,536 31,762 Swans 199,962

Rucks

This space reserved for Sean Darcy


Forwards

Will Hoskin-Elliot –  Trading him out now is like the “I hate Geddy Lee club” No Rush. – Still true. He’s topped out and will hover around his current price barring something extreme.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 88 213,300
2 120 213,300
3 71 213,300
4 70 282,500
5 51 325,200
6 125 326,200
7 65 350,500
8 75 366,500
9 71 388,400
10 64 380,900
11 90 374,700
12 62 376,200
13 374,200
14 91 374,200
15 61 384,600
16 78.9 378,100 Bombers
17 78.9 380,771 2,671 2,671 Suns
18 78.9 377,336 -3,435 -764 Eagles
19 78.9 382,750 5,414 4,650 Crows
20 78.9 386,732 3,982 8,632 Roos

 

Daniel Butler –  If he backs up that 76 with a few 60+ scores, he makes it back after two more rounds. And with a 71 he looks likely to make it back.  Probably going to rise the next two weeks as the 14 goes away. He hasn’t made much, so that extra value could make him worth a trade to up/downgrade.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 96 123,900
2 65 123,900
3 79 123,900
4 64 198,800
5 64 239,700
6 54 269,600
7 57 280,100
8 36 285,000
9 275,100
10 275,100
11 58 275,100
12 270,391
13 14 270,391
14 76 247,700
15 71 248,900
16 61.2 254,700 Saints
17 61.2 279,913 25,213 25,213 Lions
18 61.2 291,862 11,950 37,162 Giants
19 61.2 296,279 4,417 41,579 Suns
20 61.2 299,528 3,249 44,828 Hawks

Cam McCarthy –   …he grabbed the opportunity to fail again with both hands, on his throat, and held on tight, soooo, harsh but fair. Perhaps not harsh enough. Scored 28 with a two match suspension! He was worth $340,100 after R9, but is now just $27,100 over his starting price. I don’t think he will manage to go under it, but it is possible and I am curious. I’m really surprised by his nightmare of a season. Most players would have been demoted playing like he has, but the Dockers are clearly giving him time no matter how badly he spuds up, which is a rare commitment. Say what you want about Ross Lyon, (please!) but he’s stuck with Cam far longer than I would have expected. Not likely to show up here again this year.

Blake Hardwick –  Well, prove me wrong why don’t you?  – That wasn’t actually a request, but he seems to have taken it as one. He is finally making the money I was thinking he would, long after I sold him of course.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next Change
1 134,900
2 134,900
3 134,900
4 63 134,900
5 65 134,900
6 77 134,900
7 74 191,000
8 32 237,600
9 55 256,800
10 65 261,400
11 52 260,700
12 47 268,700
13 271,600
14 84 271,600
15 79 282,200
16 63.0 301,000 Giants 98,200
17 63.0 321,899 20,899 20,899 Cats 119,099
18 63.0 327,934 6,035 26,934 Dockers 125,134
19 63.0 325,258 -2,676 24,258 Swans 122,458
20 63.0 323,290 -1,968 22,290 Tigers 120,490

 

James Parsons –  And while it is probably wishful thinking, perhaps last week was a sign of him getting his confidence and raising his game? –  It was wishful thinking. Still has some cash to make before he peaks. Very likely to hit his season high after this week.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 117,300
2 117,300
3 60 117,300
4 68 117,300
5 117,300
6 117,300
7 19 117,300
8 38 152,300
9 47 168,000
10 42 170,500
11 56 182,500
12 199,000
13 51 199,000
14 82 213,300
15 49 241,800
16 51.2 258,800 Lions
17 51.2 271,382 12,582 12,582 Hawks
18 51.2 266,941 -4,441 8,141 Crows
19 51.2 264,653 -2,288 5,853 Blues
20 51.2 262,970 -1,683 4,170 Swans

 

Dan Houston –  Could easily make $40-50k over the next two weeks while that big score is in his systemWell, more like $30-40k now, but still, great comeback from injury. – He ended up making $48,400 with more on the way. A real reward for anyone who stuck with him through his long time off.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 72 117,300
2 81 117,300
3 68 117,300
4 68 185,500
5 73 233,900
6 51 266,300
7 56 282,200
8 288,900
9 288,900
10 288,900
11 288,900
12 288,900
13 90 288,900
14 64 301,100
15 82 315,900
16 70.5 337,300 Eagles
17 70.5 344,376 7,076 7,076 Roos
18 70.5 352,471 8,095 15,171 Demons
19 70.5 353,311 841 16,011 Saints
20 70.5 353,930 618 16,630 Crows

 

Huge Greenwood – I saw that I had misspelled his name on my spreadsheet as “Huge” Greenwood, and decided it was a sign. Now my nickname for him. He has been huge after all. Huge points for a cow, and huge cash growth. He’ll make a lot of money next week, since he has managed a negative BE(!) and barring injury could keep making money for weeks more. He could join Newman as a keeper, especially with his Fwd/Mid DPP.  Certainly don’t trade him out this week, with a $40k+ price rise due.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 117,300
2 117,300
3 117,300
4 117,300
5 117,300
6 117,300
7 117,300
8 117,300
9 104 117,300
10 72 117,300
11 72 117,300
12 68 196,900
13 240,000
14 127 240,000
15 84 296,300
16 87.8 342,000 Dogs
17 87.8 384,444 42,444 42,444 Demons
18 87.8 398,248 13,804 56,248 Cats
19 87.8 410,106 11,858 68,106 Pies
20 87.8 418,828 8,722 76,828 Power

James Stewart …without a big score this week, not a lot afterwards. – Well, $100 is not a lot. Some cash growth possible over the next few, but really he is ready to go now.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 169,800
2 169,800
3 169,800
4 169,800
5 169,800
6 169,800
7 169,800
8 91 169,800
9 51 169,800
10 50 169,800
11 35 210,900
12 105 215,900
13 244,200
14 51 244,200
15 59 265,400
16 63.1 290,800 Pies
17 63.1 290,893 93 93 Saints
18 63.1 296,360 5,468 5,560 Roos
19 63.1 302,224 5,864 11,424 Dogs
20 63.1 306,537 4,313 15,737 Blues

 

Other cow stuff:  Wow, Sean Darcy, what the heck to do with him?!?!?

Any other position and he’s an obvious downgrade target. Early  in the season he’s a very tempting downgrade target. Right now, you have to at least think about him.

You know how sometimes you don’t realize that something is important until later? In my team reveal I did some quick numbers showing that a ruck with no history of scoring well could take off and score well, jumping his average a lot, and that it was not rare. (Might be common, but that research is for the off-season.)  At the time I was thinking Nankervis maybe could be more than ruck cover at F7 long term. So far Witts and Nank both went from nobody to someone. All they needed was to be the solo ruck. The now obvious in hindsight lesson is that “Lone Ruckmen Score Points.”  Even, or especially, lone ruckmen who have never done anything before. They may not be in the top three, which would be hard since there are only three places in the top three, but they can score 90+ and we have seen two do it so far this season. No history, no problem.

So, this Darcy guy, can he score like a regular ruck? Yeah, a 99 last time. Do I expect him to average 85+ from here on out if he stays healthy? Well….yeah. I could easily be wrong of course, I have skills at wrong, and you can take what if I am wrong into account as the failure mode of any decision. But Sandi is out, and Darcy has the job. He is lone ruck, and lone ruckmen score points.

Okay, fine but what does that all mean in practice?

Oh no, not you again!

Yup, I got loose and don’t try and change the subject. What does that mean in practice?

Well, first would he be R2 or R3?

Go on

If you are at full premo it doesn’t make a lot of sense to replace a premium ruck with a risk. Even at full-pseudo I don’t think it moves you forward to have him on field.

What if you were at full-whatever and own Sandiands?

It still would most likely cost you points, and I would hope that you can find the cash to go Sandilands to Gawn. That is so the obvious move, for good reason!

And if someone can’t get the cash to do Sandi to Gawn?

Well, that would suck…..yeah, even if you are otherwise set, if you either can’t go right to Gawn, or can’t do it in one trade and really don’t want to use two trades, yes, then I’d think hard about Darcy.

Fair enough. How about people not at full-whatever?

If you are trying to catch up, in whatever way, then if your current R2 is not a premium you could downgrade to Darcy, hope he scores close to the same or better, and use the cash to upgrade somewhere else thus getting more total points. For sure if you are behind and have Sandi, I would try it.

So someone with Witts or Nank for example?

Yeah. I always worry about having a backup, but when behind your risk tolerance usually increases. If you have Witts and Nank, you could trade Witts for Darcy, use Nank as backup and then use that $352,800 elsewhere. Any R2 who you are not happy with could go really, and then Darcy makes cash, and you end up upgrading him to a keeper ruck, if needed, later in the season. There are not many ways to make cash at this point, and if you are hurting for cash, he’s an option.

How about as an R3?

If you have the trades to someday extract the cash he will make, that would make him more useful. If you are short on trades then is bringing in a backup you may not need better than just replacing someone when and if they get hurt? I think it isn’t if that is all you are doing.

What else could you be doing?

If you have a forward you want to downgrade, like say Parsons……yeah, just like Parsons, then if you have the Lukehole at R3, you could bring in Darcy for Parsons, and then you have a permanent back-up ruck with no risk of Nank or Ryder being unable to go to R3 due to late outs. And you get $141,500 cash out of it.

Does it have to be a forward?

I am sure creative use of DPPs could allow Mids and Defs to be downgraded to him. I just leapt at the Parsons example because I own him.

How about a straight swap for Str….the Lukehole?

That seems really wasteful of a trade, not to mention it would mess up a lot of people’s captain loophole. And it would actually cost money to do that. I bet most people have a cow they can get some cash from that would be a much better option. Also, if you ever want to upgrade Darcy, if you still have Luke who you can swing back to R3 if you want to bring in a non-ruck. It really limits your one-trade-move options if you don’t have a Fwd/Ruck guy you are happy sticking at R3.

Anything else?

Not that I can think of now. I have a hard time seeing him as a useful R3 if you can’t use cash he makes or can’t use him to get cash from someone else when you bring him in. He would be a backup ruck, but why use a trade on that early?

That was long. Shouldn’t it be a separate post?

It probably could be, but I figure the Cow Talk regulars deserve to see it and people who don’t read Cow Talk can just do without! 🙂

 

­Other non-cow stuff: Hmmm, see above.

Remember the Craggy Island guarantee, all predictions wrong or double your money back!

­

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8 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 15”

  1. Outstanding stuff FD.

    All those hypotheticals have got my head spinning.

    To Darcy or not to Darcy. That is one “Fridge” sized question.

    I may just have to read it again as I’m more confused now than I was before.

    Thank you.

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  2. My rucks are Martin, Goldy and Pruess. As you can see I have cover if goldy is out and none for Martin.
    Getting Darcy is good cover and I land $145k
    Is it a smart idea to move on Pruess?

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      1. I will have 6 left after getting witherden and darcy plus 415k
        My weakest line players are
        Shaw Ryan E
        Fyfe witherden E
        Goldy darcy E
        greenwood Rookie E

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  3. “And if someone can’t get the cash to do Sandi to Gawn?

    Well, that would suck…..yeah, even if you are otherwise set, if you either can’t go right to Gawn, or can’t do it in one trade and really don’t want to use two trades, yes, then I’d think hard about Darcy.”

    That’s me in a nutshell. And yes, I’m thinking hard about Darcy.

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  4. Brilliant stuff as usual. However, i seem to be more confused after reading it in regards to my trades… as usual…

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