Cow Talk – Round 15

Written by Father Dougal on June 29 2016

Small or far away – Father Dougal on cows.

Week 14, was not a lucky week! Bad week. For some of us, meaning me. For others, there were miracles of tons and fishes. Week 15 isn’t starting off any better. Sadly, there’s hardly anything in the way of downgrade targets, so I hope everyone has cash in the bank for upgrading.

Defenders

McDonald-Tipungwuti did not play.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Adams did not play.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

M. Brown did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Dea did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Hartley did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Byrne is ripe and will go up and down as he has good and bad matches. He is playing so go him round 15. After that he can go whenever you need. At his current average of 67.10:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

305,416 -3,884 -3,884 Pies
310,963 5,547 1,663 Crows
316,392 5,428 7,092 Eagles
320,370 3,979 11,070 Swans

Weitering has fought his way back to his “real” price of about $350,000 and like Byrne will wander around it depending on just how he scores. Of course all players move around based on how they score, but someone with a low enough BE is going up even with a score of 3, and someone with a high enough BE will drop even with a ton and change. Guys who are at their price just wander week to week. Next week looks good vs the Pies, and of course playing R15, but after that he feels ready to go.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

342,401 17,756 17,756 Pies
344,616 2,215 19,971 Crows
346,919 2,303 22,274 Eagles
348,607 1,688 23,962 Swans

Byrne-Jones did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Ruggles had a season high 91, with his second highest score of 81 just leaving his TRA after pushing his price up. He’s do one more nice rise, after his week off, and is one more bloke who can go at your leisure.  At his current average of 64:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

305,200     ——-
323,022 17,822 17,822 Swans
333,008 9,987 27,808 Dockers
328,463 -4,545 23,263 Crows

Collins joins us off a 126, which was the highest score in that match. Wow. If he can score decently he’ll shoot up over the next two rounds he plays. I’m really curious to see how he goes over his next two matches and if he can ton up again. Realistically, the odds of his averaging 100 from here on out and filling my last premo spot are about the same as Yahoo Serious winning Australian of the Year, but still I can hope. Hope for the 100 average that is, *not* the other thing that I shouldn’t have discussed on a family friendly site. Sorry about that.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

254,900     ——-
301,798 46,898 46,898 Demons
343,907 42,109 89,007 Cats
353,063 9,156 98,163 Suns

Midfielders

Hewett did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Parish did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Mills did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Davis played, for some value of play where a score of 32 counts as playing. Small drop from last week, but he is due to lose not-trivial money over the next two weeks if he scores at his average of 57.80:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

291,146 -15,554 -15,554 Saints
278,267 -12,879 -28,433 Lions
280,165 1,898 -26,535 Dogs
281,556 1,391 -25,144 Dockers

Oliver  did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

J Smith also gifted his owners with a high score to help them through the bye rounds and pump up his price. He should have a bit more money to make before slowing down. At his current average of 71.67:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

319,436 13,836 13,836 Blues
337,998 18,561 32,398 Giants
342,228 4,230 36,628 Crows
345,328 3,100 39,728 Roos

Hopper did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Rucks

Cox seems to have kept his place and is closing in on making $200,000, which is pretty darn good. If I owned him I’m not sure I would sell him for money since he seems a fine back up at a time when backup rucks are looking important. Now I’m wondering what other than money I should sell him for, Quatloos, Gold Pressed Latinum, Nuyen, Pipe Weed, Bits, Pounds Sterling…..?

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

284,896 15,496 15,496 Blues
295,347 10,450 25,947 Giants
298,807 3,460 29,407 Crows
301,343 2,536 31,943 Roos

Forwards

Kerridge scored another 81, meaning an 81 two weeks in a row, which is not that exciting but along with the 126 about to leave his TRA that was enough to keep his price rising. But, with the 126 going away he is likely to lose value with a BE of 105. But, not too much, and 105 is certainly within his reach. He’s playing the Pies too. Most of us can’t trade out anyone who is playing R15 so does it even matter?

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

431,878 -8,322 -8,322 Pies
428,212 -3,666 -11,988 Crows
427,959 -253 -12,241 Eagles
427,774 -185 -12,426 Swans

Kennedy did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

McCarthy went for 69; almost double his last score, for those not to picky. Long term his price may go up a bit, but in the long term the season is over. He has a bye this week? Time to throw him back down that well. At his current average of 53.70:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

224,600     ——-
218,548 -6,052 -6,052 Swans
207,388 -11,160 -17,212 Dockers
222,807 15,419 -1,793 Crows

Menadue had a comeback so shocking Sylvester Stallone rejected it as a Rocky script for being too  unbelievable. He scored 13o. That’s 50 points over his prior high score. Three points less than his three previous scores combined. If you owned him and were forced to play him to avoid a donut, then week 14 was indeed your lucky week. I’m going to go out on a very sturdy limb and predict he will regress towards the mean next time he plays. Which is sort of funny, that right after he scores 130 we don’t assume he’ll play the next week. But really, is a miracle like “Menapoo” scoring 130 proof of the existence of Gary Ablett? Don’t ask me; theology was never my strong suit. At his current average of  58.3,:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

291,853 34,153 34,153 Power
322,292 30,439 64,592 Dogs
313,093 -9,198 55,393 Bombers
306,351 -6,742 48,651 Hawks

McGovern scored an 85, which is his season high. He is due to rise some more, but I would plan to move him on as soon as it suits. At his current average of 61.15:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

310,272 10,372 10,372 Demons
318,525 8,253 18,625 Blues
314,095 -4,430 14,195 Pies
310,847 -3,247 10,947 Cats

Petracca did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Random Cow Thoughts

As always, please let me know if I missed someone or otherwise messed something up.

Wow, a lot of players did not play last week -plus a lot of cows had their bye! I am very glad that I will no longer have to fiddle with blank weeks in my spreadsheet, because, blah, and triple checking numbers and my brain hurting more than normal by the time I’m finished.

 

 

 

 

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4 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 15”

  1. ‘A comeback so unbelievable it was rejected as a Rocky script’……..I’m putting that in Comments Of The Week 😉 Classic!
    Thanks again, Father!

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Cow Talk – Round 15

Written by Father Dougal on July 8 2015

Small or Far Away – Father Dougal on Cows

A mostly full schedule meant some hot cow on pitch action.

Defenders

Oxley managed a blah 62 and now has a high BE of 124. If you plan to cash him in, now is the time. If he is your D7 then his price may not matter to you anymore. At his average of 71 he’ll lose $21,000 then $6,300, and then go up  $400.

Brown scored a 55 and has a BE of 76.  He’s due to drop a bit if he sticks to his average of 53 and a bit; $9,500 to be exact. Well, estimated exact. He’s just going to go up and down a bit with his form here on in. It should be pretty clear what he can do by now.

McIntosh got the vest again and his price went down. I am seeing a pattern here. He gets the vest and his price goes down or he does not get the vest and his price goes up. His average doesn’t means so much now with all the vest/no vest matches mixed in together.  Expect his price to drop if he gets the vest and to rise if he does not. A 45 will see him drop $12,700 and a 75 will see him rise by, um, nothing because that is his breakeven.

Saad played like Saad, scoring 86. He will hover around his current score with small changes based on his recent form. Keep or cull, whatever you need. He’s darn consistent so you know what you are getting with him.

Midfielders

Ellis-Yolman did not play due to sad and unforeseen circumstances.

Cripps seems to have gotten hurt, and only put up a 77 due to injury. But he is now a steer so I shouldn’t have started writing about him and taken him off my list. Maybe next week.

Miller did well and went for 79. His TWA loses an 82 and then a 39, so he’ll probably go down and then back up. If he goes his average of 69 and a bit he change: -$4,600 then $9,400 and $2,900.

Vandenberg didn’t play because he is still hurt. Still. Harvest him and make use of the cash. I suppose I should thank him for being so easy to write about…..

Boston goes Mooooooo! At last a new cow to talk about! Hard to believe it took so long. Has a BR of 49 and an average of 65.6. At that average he has a ways farther to go. How fast depends on how many big games he has. If he stays at his average he’ll go up $7,000, $10,100, and $14,600.

 

Forwards

Hogan had a fine 79. He has more money too make if he can keep up his average of 78.4. He’ll go up  $15,800, $5,600, and  $4,000. A big game will pump him up faster. I think he should hit $400k at some point, and I would not be surprised to see him go past it. He has gone over a ton several times so we know he can put up big scores. If you can let him fatten up more it looks worth trying.

Clark did not play yet again due to injury. At this point I would trade him out. He may do okay make a little more if he ever gets back, but now enough to make him worth holding. When he gets back, if he scores at his average of 64 he’ll go $3,800 $-7,900 $4,900. Also east to write since nothing changed with him.

Krakouer is sure making the most of his second chance! I still have him due to pure luck – Hogan getting hurt when he did. He sure looks set to rise and maybe even be good enough to keep….crazy talk….A -18 (!) BE.  His average is 71 and if he makes it, which is very possible, he’ll go up $37,200, $27,300 and $2,200. Big cash. And he is scoring well now and could go higher!

Tarrant scored a 50. I really don’t know what to expect from him. I would guess more price dropping. If anyone who follows North Melbourne knows what is up with him I and others would love to know if you can share. Assuming he can manage more 50s, he will go: -$11,900, -$4,100, and -$3,000.  He needs about 57.5 over the next three weeks to keep to close to his current price.

Lonie had a fine week with an 82. He is averaging 60, (with his injury score) which it looks like he can make. If he does he will go $6,700, $7,100, and -$4,000.  Take out his 3 and he is averaging more like 65 in which case he would not drop in price. If he can really hit 80 a fair amount, then he could approach $400k. I wouldn’t count on that but he should still have some more cash in him.

 

 

Random Cow Thoughts:

Nice to see Boston join the list. Steele should in a few weeks. Other than that I am not sure who else might. A lot of players seem to have stalled well before $250,000.  Darn.

 

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Author: Father Dougal

First time player, new to both Supercoach and the AFL. Having fun though! Now a second time player. Let's see if I learned anything! Oh, I learned a little. Now a third year player and running out of excuses.



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9 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 15”

  1. Need to cull a cow to bring Steele into the side – but who for?
    T/U: Lonie
    T/D: Boston
    Cheers 🙂

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