Cow Talk – Round 16

Written by Father Dougal on July 12 2017

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

The cows are going mad. Scores all over the place, in and out. The end of cow season is near and they wait to find out if they will be harvested or left on the field.

Standard bits

When looking at projections, remember that a score over or under a player’s current average will affect not just the next week but the ones after it since their average, and thus the projections, will move along with the current week. If you think their current average is not a good predictor of future performance, take that into account when you plan.

Also, don’t forget that any cow is capable of a shock high or low score. Extra so if they have had one in the past. Every week I am reminded how these numbers are just a help in making decisions, and not predictions of what will actually happen.

This season I am including past weeks and more weeks ahead. After spending all that time on growth patterns it would be silly not to include the data needed to see them! I have also put historical numbers in gray, so it is easy to see projections vs reality.

Defenders

Andy Otten –  Followed up the 81 with a 90. Happy price rises.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 45 123,900
2 108 123,900
3 98 123,900
4 98 203,800
5 101 286,300
6 61 344,300
7 69 370,000
8 56 376,400
9 72 360,400
10 121 353,900
11 36 372,200
12 62 376,200
13 375,500
14 47 375,500
15 341,900
16 94 341,900
17 76.3 341,600 Demons
18 76.3 347,480 5,880 5,880 Cats
19 76.3 364,807 17,327 23,207 Pies
20 76.3 369,670 4,863 28,070 Power

Andrew McGrath –  A ninety, cool! Even with that he should just clear a $150,000 profit.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 83 211,800
2 56 211,800
3 62 211,800
4 97 246,500
5 82 278,100
6 89 313,200
7 350,700
8 66 350,700
9 59 364,300
10 101 364,400
11 55 369,700
12 61 368,200
13 368,700
14 45 368,700
15 81 344,000
16 90 336,200
17 73.4 343,200 Saints
18 73.4 360,679 17,479 17,479 Roos
19 73.4 370,127 9,447 26,927 Dogs
20 73.4 369,676 -451 26,476 Blues

Caleb Marchbank –   Not playing, no write up.

Midfielders

Sam Powell-Pepper –  Nice to not have to worry about trading before a price collapse, unless I jinxed him just now. – Note to self, only jinx players I don’t own. Oh wait, I sold him for Cripps….It did take an injury to make him lose value. He could well bounce back, but who knows if there will be lingering effects from his injury. Good choice to upgrade now.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 78 135,300
2 90 135,300
3 51 135,300
4 41 198,000
5 55 227,500
6 97 233,800
7 60 258,700
8 70.0 285,700
9 311,900
10 55 311,900
11 88 312,600
12 60 325,200
13 85 330,700
14 82 348,100
15 73 358,200
16 45 370,200
17 68.7 361,100 Roos
18 68.7 348,207 -12,893 -12,893 Demons
19 68.7 336,811 -11,397 -24,289 Saints
20 68.7 338,949 2,138 -22,151 Crows

Sammo Petrevski-SetonI know better than to say something like “he can’t drop that much more.” – Note to self, only anti-curse players I own. That ton came out of nowhere! Sitting next to Otten on the group “Could do anything” bench.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 59 189,300
2 51 189,300
3 116 189,300
4 49 240,900
5 49 274,400
6 78 298,400
7 134 298,700
8 59 337,200
9 58 369,500
10 26 384,700
11 347,700
12 347,700
13 64 347,700
14 32 322,700
15 292,700
16 102 292,700
17 67.5 303,100 Dogs
18 67.5 312,166 9,066 9,066 Lions
19 67.5 334,577 22,411 31,477 Cats
20 67.5 335,702 1,125 32,602 Bombers

Jake Barrett Didn’t play, didn’t change in price.

Jarrod Berry He did well again. He is still a good upgrade target. Certainly not a bad backup if you need to keep him.  

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 139,800
2 139,800
3 32 139,800
4 29 139,800
5 14 139,800
6 62 136,900
7 60 147,900
8 71 170,000
9 75 211,400
10 48 248,000
11 269,500
12 84 269,500
13 44 291,400
14 76 293,500
15 69 307,600
16 85 310,300
17 57.6 330,400 Tigers
18 57.6 336,733 6,333 6,333 Blues
19 57.6 336,329 -404 5,929 Eagles
20 57.6 323,870 -12,459 -6,530 Dogs

Scott Selwood  Mocks my making him an honorary cow by not playing. As Emily Patella would say “Nevermind”

Rucks

This space reserved for Sean Darcy


Forwards

Will Hoskin-Elliot – He’s topped out and will hover around his current price barring something extreme. – That, still. But who still owns him now, honestly?

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 88 213,300
2 120 213,300
3 71 213,300
4 70 282,500
5 51 325,200
6 125 326,200
7 65 350,500
8 75 366,500
9 71 388,400
10 64 380,900
11 90 374,700
12 62 376,200
13 374,200
14 91 374,200
15 61 384,600
16 82 378,100
17 79.1 382,000 Suns
18 79.1 379,285 -2,715 -2,715 Eagles
19 79.1 385,315 6,030 3,315 Crows
20 79.1 388,443 3,127 6,443 Roos

Daniel Butler –  When Otten and SPS went to sit on the “Could do anything” bench, Butler was there waiting.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 96 123,900
2 65 123,900
3 79 123,900
4 64 198,800
5 64 239,700
6 54 269,600
7 57 280,100
8 36 285,000
9 275,100
10 275,100
11 58 275,100
12 270,391
13 14 270,391
14 76 247,700
15 71 248,900
16 36 254,700
17 59.2 268,600 Lions
18 59.2 271,171 2,571 2,571 Giants
19 59.2 267,833 -3,338 -767 Suns
20 59.2 275,698 7,865 7,098 Hawks

Blake Hardwick –   He is finally making the money I was thinking he would, long after I sold him of course. – And now back to the player he was when I owned him. Make room on the bench.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 134,900
2 134,900
3 134,900
4 63 134,900
5 65 134,900
6 77 134,900
7 74 191,000
8 32 237,600
9 55 256,800
10 65 261,400
11 52 260,700
12 47 268,700
13 271,600
14 84 271,600
15 79 282,200
16 50 301,000
17 61.9 316,000 Cats
18 61.9 316,960 960 960 Dockers
19 61.9 310,078 -6,882 -5,922 Swans
20 61.9 310,314 236 -5,686 Tigers

James Parsons –  Hey, maybe he did get his confidence! Best score of the season! Once again has money to make over the next two weeks. Maybe $25k. The best thing about him is that he plays every week. Gah, cursed him and I own him. But he sure was came to the rescue for a lot of us last week.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 117,300
2 117,300
3 60 117,300
4 68 117,300
5 117,300
6 117,300
7 19 117,300
8 38 152,300
9 47 168,000
10 42 170,500
11 56 182,500
12 199,000
13 51 199,000
14 82 213,300
15 49 241,800
16 98 258,800
17 55.5 292,000 Hawks
18 55.5 304,452 12,452 12,452 Crows
19 55.5 316,467 12,015 24,467 Blues
20 55.5 306,398 -10,069 14,398 Swans

Dan Houston –  More money, but, wow, is he scoring now! Not sure I’d trade someone doing so well, especially playing forward.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 72 117,300
2 81 117,300
3 68 117,300
4 68 185,500
5 73 233,900
6 51 266,300
7 56 282,200
8 288,900
9 288,900
10 288,900
11 288,900
12 288,900
13 90 288,900
14 64 301,100
15 82 315,900
16 91 337,300
17 72.4 353,300 Roos
18 72.4 368,547 15,247 15,247 Demons
19 72.4 375,469 6,922 22,169 Saints
20 72.4 372,277 -3,192 18,977 Crows

 

Huge Greenwood –  Certainly don’t trade him out this week, with a $40k+ price rise due. – #^&*^*@*%*!!  Still true this week, thanks to his HUGE and unexpected rest. Should be back this week. Thank god for Priests, er, Parsons.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 117,300
2 117,300
3 117,300
4 117,300
5 117,300
6 117,300
7 117,300
8 117,300
9 104 117,300
10 72 117,300
11 72 117,300
12 68 196,900
13 240,000
14 127 240,000
15 84 296,300
16 342,000 Dogs
17 87.8 342,000 Demons
18 87.8 383,993 41,993 41,993 Cats
19 87.8 397,450 13,457 55,450 Pies
20 87.8 409,039 11,589 67,039 Power

James Stewart –  Some cash growth possible over the next few, but really he is ready to go now. – Still true.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 169,800
2 169,800
3 169,800
4 169,800
5 169,800
6 169,800
7 169,800
8 91 169,800
9 51 169,800
10 50 169,800
11 35 210,900
12 105 215,900
13 244,200
14 51 244,200
15 59 265,400
16 75 290,800
17 64.6 296,100 Saints
18 64.6 305,763 9,663 9,663 Roos
19 64.6 315,361 9,598 19,261 Dogs
20 64.6 317,805 2,444 21,705 Blues

Other cow stuff:  The hotel California is turning into the roach motel California. Any cow who comes is now is almost certain to never leave.

­Other non-cow stuff: So, that carnage thing? Yeah, happening again. I had five starters out last week! Thank you cows for help avoiding donuts.

Remember the Craggy Island guarantee, all predictions wrong or double your money back!

­

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5 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 16”

    1. I hadn’t since they are so new, but I can run some numbers on them and put them in.

      At this point cow prices are getting a lot less important, so I might switch to the newer ones who have a shot at being harvested up to finals.

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  1. Thank you father for cow talk.
    The harvest is nearly over so I’d like to thank you for another season. I thoroughly enjoy your whimsical ramblings over the top of some serious next level research and number crunching.
    Cheers.

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