Cow Talk – Round 16

Written by Father Dougal on July 6 2016

Small or far away – Father Dougal on cows.

Even though I went up some in rank over the byes, which was sadly not a challenge being so low going into them, I am very glad they are over.  This looks like another big week for cows as managers scramble to bring in that last premium or two. Or three, maybe four or five…….

Defenders

McDonald-Tipungwuti played but had a clanger of a game. If he sticks to his current average of 73.38 he will never make it back to his current price this season. He could, in theory, score big a few times and make a move, but who wants to bet on that? Sell now. And yes, I am actually making a clear and unweaseled suggestion, so you know it must be serious. He’ll probably pull a Menadue and show me up, but I’m not going to feel bad if that happens with the odds pretty well against it. 

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

351,209 -15,591 -15,591 Saints
339,467 -11,742 -27,333 Tigers
346,878 7,411 -19,922 Lions
352,330 5,452 -14,470 Crows

Adams had another off match, and now is injured for 2 or so more. Arrgh!!!  Good news is that his price won’t drop with him out, so at least you can hold if you need to move someone else out first. At his current average of 80.64:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

349,993 -10,207 -10,207 ?????
350,705 711 -9,495 ?????
364,743 14,038 4,543 ?????
375,071 10,328 14,871 ?????

M. Brown joined the blah club with a 54. He is at least looking good to go up a bit more, and can be held fairly safely another week and maybe more depending on this week. He has not made to up to $300,000, which is too bad. He is still worth harvesting, but again it does not look urgent this week. At his current average of 57.86:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

278,730 10,330 10,330 Saints
279,941 1,210 11,541 Tigers
282,533 2,592 14,133 Lions
284,440 1,907 16,040 Crows

Dea has a shot at a bit more and I’m sure he is not going to throw it away, but he has made his money and can go anytime now. At his current average of 74.31

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

378,526 9,926 9,926 Saints
377,142 -1,384 8,542 Tigers
375,819 -1,323 7,219 Lions
374,845 -974 6,245 Crows

Hartley has a 19 leaving his three round average and so his season average says he has more money to make. I am not feeling so good about his chances of actually doing that, but he isn’t likely to lose a lot either, so maybe he is worth holding onto for now. His current price is low and unexciting, but if you need cash now selling is probably worth it. At his current average of 60.19, which I guess is not going to be that hard to hit:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

259,012 3,612 3,612 Saints
263,955 4,943 8,555 Tigers
273,847 9,893 18,447 Lions
281,126 7,279 25,726 Crows

Byrne is out for the season, at best. Sad and I hope he recovers fully. Next week he will be Sir not appearing in this film.

Weitering has fought his way back to his “real” price of about $350,000 and like Byrne will wander around it depending on just how he scores. And he scored a 49, lost value and is set to lose more. Owch. Of course last week we were all lucky to field 18, so the points were probably worth it. Now he is looking to drop a bit. He’s a weird one, in that his two huge score moves his price up but his strings of bad scores around them bring it back down. If you hold long enough he might get another 120+, but who knows how long before that happens. If it is soon, great, if not, he could drop more than his average of 69.67 suggests:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

328,745 -4,955 -4,955 Crows
324,952 -3,793 -8,748 Eagles
331,278 6,326 -2,422 Swans
335,933 4,654 2,233 Hawks

Byrne-Jones scored a nice 70 and  looks to be slowly trending up in value. He has shown he can score tons and 30s but if he stays in a middle range no rush to get him out. At his current average of 71.75:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

320,614 -786 -786 Hawks
330,072 9,457 8,672 Roos
337,802 7,730 16,402 Giants
343,490 5,688 22,090 Lions

Ruggles looks set for a bit more rise before topping out. His BE is only 21, so he can’t spud up too badly, even with a single digit score. Not ready to selling. At his current average of 64:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

319,833 14,633 14,633 Swans
335,011 15,178 29,811 Dockers
343,090 8,079 37,890 Crows
337,124 -5,966 31,924 Dogs

Collins has not played since his 126. But yet his number have changed? Yeah, because the multiplier I use for dropping moves a bit each week. At the end of the season I’m going to go back and see about calculating an average one instead of a floating one, although I am not sure that would be better.  The swing last week to this week was large as far as they go, and that “large” difference is only 0.75%.  For Collins who is set to go up $100,000 or so that would mean a $750 difference – which is why I am not sweating it too much. Probably took up more of your life reading about it than is was worth it to you. Unless you also like the maths, which some small % out there must!

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

302,940 48,040 48,040 Demons
346,050 43,110 91,150 Cats
355,976 9,926 101,076 Suns
363,280 7,303 108,380 Swans

Midfielders

Hewett scored 68 and sooner that annoying 11 will leave his TRA.  He is set to go up after coming down, which is just the reverse of that old saying. Huh. Does anyone still own him? Well, if so he looks likely to make some money from where he is now. At his current average of 56.92:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

260,803 11,803 11,803 Cats
272,096 11,294 23,096 Hawks
275,517 3,420 26,517 Blues
278,033 2,516 29,033 Dockers

Parish had another 53 which did not help his score any. His BE of 83 looks a bit tough, if not impossible. Ready to harvest really. At his current average of 68.31:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

308,432 -6,268 -6,268 Saints
310,572 2,141 -4,128 Tigers
318,900 8,328 4,200 Lions
325,027 6,127 10,327 Crows

Mills looks to have one move up in price left and then he’s ready to go. Or he can go now, I doubt he had a lot of money left to make barring a Menadue. At his current average of 72.08:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

379,745 15,345 15,345 Cats
383,571 3,825 19,171 Hawks
377,596 -5,974 13,196 Blues
373,201 -4,395 8,801 Dockers

Davis came back strong with an 85. That is going to help him keep his value if you need to sell others first, especially when that 32 leaves his TRA next week. Not a long term guy though, harvest before he spuds up again. At his average of 60.27:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

302,014 -2,186 -2,186 Lions
312,878 10,864 8,678 Dogs
309,963 -2,915 5,763 Dockers
307,818 -2,145 3,618 Demons

Oliver looking below, blech. Not looking like a good hold option at all. He’s a bit over his real value it seems. Not thinking of much to say about him other than sell when you can.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

297,853 -10,747 -10,747 Dockers
294,136 -3,717 -14,464 Saints
301,768 7,632 -6,832 Eagles
307,383 5,615 -1,217 Suns

J Smith scored just a tiny bit off his average, meaning not much predictino change from last week. (Lack of life wasting stuff here.)  At his current average of 71.5:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

338,736 18,936 18,936 Giants
343,184 4,448 23,384 Crows
347,119 3,934 27,319 Roos
350,014 2,895 30,214 Eagles

Hopper is injured.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Rucks

Cox is still closing in on making $200,000. Slow and steady riser at this point. Still seems like more of  backup than a cow, but you may need the cash.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

284,706 5,606 5,606 Giants
283,934 -772 4,834 Crows
289,498 5,564 10,398 Roos
293,591 4,093 14,491 Eagles

Forwards

Kerridge I wish scored another 81, rather than an icky 55. That’s gonna hurt the old price. He also is never going to get back to his current price if he stick to his average. He won’t lose that much and a big game will bring him back up. Do you need his points or his cash more? At his current average of 84.29:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

405,820 -13,680 -13,680 Crows
397,205 -8,615 -22,295 Eagles
403,784 6,580 -15,716 Swans
408,626 4,841 -10,874 Hawks

Kennedy is wandering up and down with his good and bad weeks. Sell whenever. At his current average of 71.85:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

317,938 -6,962 -6,962 Dockers
326,864 8,926 1,964 Saints
335,569 8,705 10,669 Eagles
341,974 6,405 17,074 Suns

McCarthy did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

235,697 11,097 11,097 Swans
251,228 15,531 26,628 Dockers
255,906 4,678 31,306 Crows
259,348 3,442 34,748 Dogs

Menadue has, as far as I’m concerned, given his name to history. A rookie having a big and completely unexpected score = pulling a Menadue. All those weeks of Menapoo were just setup for the big payoff. After which he scored 50. Back to normal things are. Well, next week they will be after that monster score leaves is TRA. Don’t sell this week, but sell for sure next week. Unless he pulls a him. At his current average of  57.55:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

316,368 27,168 27,168 Dogs
304,440 -11,927 15,240 Bombers
299,014 -5,427 9,814 Hawks
295,036 -3,978 5,836 Giants

McGovern is close to topped out. Sell, now sell next week, get your profit before he spuds up.  At his current average of 62:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

329,986 13,386 13,386 Blues
329,688 -297 13,088 Pies
324,617 -5,071 8,017 Cats
320,886 -3,731 4,286 Bombers

Petracca is very close to being ripe. He is for all practical purposes. He has a lot more chance of going up than Kerridge though, so if you have both and need cash, he would go second. Or first if you need points, since his average is enough lower to matter. And at that 74.44 average:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

362,253 9,153 9,153 Dockers
364,037 1,783 10,937 Saints
365,984 1,947 12,884 Eagles
367,415 1,431 14,315 Suns

Random Cow Thoughts

As always, please let me know if I missed someone or otherwise messed something up.

I am planning to have a chart for all players from now on, and if I don’t know when they will be back I’ll put in ????? for their opponents.

Sorry for the lack of funny this week, for some reason it just didn’t happen. Probably related to beer levels. Well, previous nights beer levels. Apparently my brain thinks this week is full of boring. Probably because it is; there are a lot of guys at or close to their peaks.

 

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6 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 16”

  1. Love it FD.

    Thanks for your hard work this season. My team has sucked horribly but the one thing I got right was the culling, mainly thanks to you.

    AMT to be culled this week and my cows are done for the season.

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Cow Talk – Round 16

Written by Father Dougal on July 15 2015

Small or Far Away – Father Dougal on Cows

A few new faces and a few old ones return!

Defenders

Oxley made a fine 78, but that was not close to keeping his price up with his big scores out of his TRA. He’s averaging 80 and due to drop $2,200 if he makes it. After that he’d go up $5,800 then $5,100. I see that last week I gave projections based on his real average of 81 but put his average down as 71. I must have fat fingered that when I wrote his bit. The rise and drops part checked out though, which is the important part.

Brown I’m so running out of things to say about him. Aside from the numbers of course. Averaging 52.7 he’ll go, if he makes that: -$4,300, -$4,200 then $500

McIntosh had his best score for ages; putting up a respectable 76 and beating his breakeven. By 1 point, but still, beating it. His BE is only 33 which at least means more vest shouldn’t crash his price too much. If he scores his average of 62 and a bit he’ll go $12,400, $16,300, then $6,400.

Saad played like someone who didn’t play, and scored the traditional zero for someone who didn’t play.

 

Midfielders

Ellis-Yolman joined the wombat cuddler’s club with a 15. Owwwwch. He BE is up to 116. Owwwch. Like anyone who has a single bad score, he’ll recover if you wait it out and he doesn’t get too fond of wombats. Short term, when he plays again, if he hits his average of 74 and a bit: -$17,700 then -$8,400 and then back up $18,400.

Cripps is no longer appearing in this column.

Miller went over his BE and scored a 78. He’s looking good for more rising if he can keep up his average of 70: $12,600, $5,500, and $500.

Vandenberg played at last! He played at last! I don’t own him of course, and I doubt to many people do. For those who kept the faith, his 97 was sure nice. If he can keep up his average he’ll make back some of what he lost. At 78.5 (ish) he’ll go -$200, $16,100, and $4,200.

Boston went “Mooooooo” – week before last. This week, he went “        “ making him yet another cow jerking our collective chains. Bother.

 

Forwards

Hogan had a fine 76 and made some of that money his owners had hoped for. He’s not due to rise much at his average; about $10,000 over the next 3 weeks, but one good score will pump him right up.

Clark did not play yet again blah injury blah.

Krakouer got dropped. Apparently he had a rough time defending, but did great when playing forward. The Port coach concluded he should be dropped. I concluded he should be played up front and not in back. You know, because he did really well up front? Father Dougal’s rule of coaching in the AFL; if I think of it and you don’t, you might be in the wrong job….or I might be an idiot. Or both.

Tarrant went for 45. If he makes his average…oh bleeping heck, the man is not making his average. I have no bleeping idea what’s up with him, but he’s been leaking cash for weeks. If he makes his average the bleeding will reverse. What’s the odds of his making 67.5? For all I know he’ll come back and make it. If he does, $2,300, $9,100, and $16,300.

Lonie mate, what is it with the cows this year that the moment I feel like one is doing well and say so, they go mad and prove me wrong? It’s not like I’m not used to being wrong, but dang. So, a 35….I could and will state the obvious that a high score will have him rise and a medium or low score will have him drop. But you knew that…..so what is there to say useful on him? When that 82 comes out of his TRA round after next, he’ll be at risk of dropping $10k or more. Watch out.

New Cow

Lever played his 5th and went up over $250,000. He is averaging 68.8 and if he keeps it up he’ll rise $21,100, $13,600, and $12,300. Good cow! About time. Oh dear, now I’ve cursed him…..

 

Random Cow Thoughts:

So would any article be complete this week with no mention of Gary? No, of course not. Never let it be said that I stand up to peer pressure, oh no. I’m folding like a cheap suit. If Gary were a cow, what would I say about him…….it turns out I would say not to panic buy him. His BE this week is only 119, but with his 124 and 153 leaving it could easily rise. I calculated what happens with his price if he makes 130 for the next few matches. His price will rise $4,700, $6,000, -$5,200, -$3,900, and -$2,900. That’s not so much that you need to be seriously worried about not being able to afford him later. He is priced highly already. If you just want those sweet, sweet high scores and are not worried about things coming in threes and him joining Sloane and Rocky…..I plan to bring him in to fill my last premium spot, when I can afford to. But, I am not going to do anything mad to bring him in. Catching NADS (No Ablett Derangement Syndrome) can lead to the ruin of an otherwise fine team. Think, and don’t panic. Your team may be better off without him, especially if you are short on trades.

 

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Author: Father Dougal

First time player, new to both Supercoach and the AFL. Having fun though! Now a second time player. Let's see if I learned anything! Oh, I learned a little. Now a third year player and running out of excuses.



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12 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 16”

  1. I’m still working out my trade strategy heading into finals and hopefully a top 4 finish with 11 trades left and 148 k. Gray Gaz and Sidey are the three I want to finish my team:
    D Shaw Hodge Simpson Newness Gibson Houli Saad Hamling
    M Fyfe Pendles Ward Lewis Kennedy Parker Griffen Steele EOY Krak Boston
    R Goldy Nic Nat
    F Martin Goddard Dalihaus Swan Mitchell Tarrant Clark McClean

    I’m thinking this week Gray Daniel for CEY McClean then Gaz Knight for Clark Griffin then last move isn’t so clear but Sidey and a def rookie in for Krakouer and Saad.

    Thumbs up Gray first
    Thumbs down Gaz

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  2. Another awesome cow article Father Douglas you are part of what makes this community so great. As far as well matured cows is anyone thinking R Tarrant Steele and Saad could be F M and D cover for finals? Tarrant has basically played every week not scoring vert well. Saad when back scores ok for a backup. Steele surely a chance to be M/F 9 ?

    Thumbs up could be cover
    Thumbs down look elsewhere

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  3. One of the best write ups I’ve read on SCTalk this year (and there have been some very good ones). Deserves a column in the Herald Sun IMO for the diehards.

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  4. Sensational article as usual mate! Love you work. I need to gain 168 points a week on the leader, while I’m in no position to win I decided at the start of the year I would forget about league wins and try finish as high as possible. I’m currently about 1300. The plan was Daniels & Hodge this week, Shaw and a rookie next week. Then Gazza came along and Duckwood did the chicken dance and got suspended. So I’m thinking Sellwood to Ablett, Lonie to Daniels and the delay the other two upgrade another week. I think if I want to gain points on the leader there’s only one man that can do it. Question is Captain Ablett into Fyfe, or Goldy into Ablett? Tough decisions this week…

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