Cow Talk Round 18 –> 19

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

Hi Everybody!

So, time for the next stage of Project Whinge! I actually feel like the horrors have slowed down a bit…

Terrified Squeak!

(Sound of a very small thud as a hamster faints onto the soft bedding on the floor of his cage)

My god, what have you done! 

Started to write Cow Talk?

You just taunted the SuperCoach Gods! You might as well be wearing a hat that says “Smite Here”

Oh, I guess I did.

Right, I’m out of here before the smiting begins. See you next week. I hope.

Fine, I can do this myself. I used to you know!

…..

Well…I guess I can do this by myself. Um, so, where was I….?

…..

Ok, right, just keep going, no pauses. Um, so PRoject Whinge. That’s where we talk about our tales of woe now so we can remember them next year. Of course since I am asking for them, probably things will end up fine and we will all have trades left over. Oh the horror…

So, me first. I have three trades left. $36,300 in the bank. Depending on your point of view I am anywhere from full premo to three away from full premo. Poll later. At the moment, I do not have any premiums injured. Yeah, nervous-making saying that. One backup each for Def, Mid, and Fwd, and I can use the Fwd backup to cover rusk with DPP. If I manage to have no disasters, I may try an upgrade next week. Have to see what happens.

Oh, and the gods mocked me big time last week. I put the E on Answerth, and he scores a 98! I move JJ to the bench since he went for 44 and 36 the last two weeks. He then of course, tons up, outscoring Answerth. I didn’t have the courage to see if I lost any matches by single digits.

I’m giving up on Cow numbers for the rest season. At this point, they really don’t matter much. If you want to see numbers for a Cow, let me know in the comments and I’ll do a few guys, but in practice the cows have left the pasture at this point of the season.

Oh, last week in the comments, Arzi, not a hamster, as far as I know, asked: “If it isn’t too much effort FD, maybe next week add a column that compares your early round projections against actual? For science!!!”

I thought about that, but I am making projections based on current season averages and not how well I think someone will do over the rest of the season. So, not exactly doable as asked. But, I do think the idea of me showing how projections match reality is fair. I’ll think about how to do that, and if I come up with a way that isn’t too much work I will write it up. I can say, just off the top of my head, that on a great week I’m $1-200 off, but more commonly $5-800-ish off. That’s mostly because the breakevens are not actually correct, making me have to guess how not correct, and that varies a lot week to week. Around my being sick I forgot to adjust once and was more off. Now, if I am $1000 off a projection for a player worth, say $250,000, that is just 0.004% off. I’m pretty sure even my worst projections are less than 1% off. Also, my goal is to show trends and scale, and that works fine even at the worst case.

I think I talked myself out of running more numbers. If you want more, again, just say so in the comments.

What I will do, at the end of the season, or maybe the beginning of the next one, is go through whatever predictions I made and posts and such and see how they held up. I’ll go over my own team as well, which will not be very exciting this season, but if nothing else having to do it will be good for me learning. Might help others as well, who knows?

While I’m at it, I’m open to idea for the next few weeks. I’m tempted to review the cows in some way. Did it by haiku already in a past year…..

Dodgy Advice

 

Wow, I almost forgot, with nobody to remind me, pout sulk, that I’m thinking of added a “Dodgy Advice” section. Not sure I will have the time to do that every week, but on the other hand, can it be harder than good advice? Probably, but so what? Anyways, you can get good advice from everyone else on the site, so why be all redundant? But maybe-good, maybe-bad, use-it-at-your-own-risk-and-don’t-come-crying-to-me-stop-with-the-hyphens type advice? Yeah, I can do that.

So, Jason Johannisen is only $363,800 this week, with a breakeven of 79. I have no idea why he had two bad weeks that dropped his price by $100,100 but he did, and then tonned up. He is way cheap for his 85ish average.  If you have to replace a defender and can use extra cash elsewhere, or are short cash and need a defender, well, he is a bargain.

Other

Fantasy Premier League starts up soon! This is the last weekend before it begins Friday night England time.  The Supercoach Talk league code is “eijmnn” You should join! Another way to Pound the Priest. (Not like that.)

This year I’m trying something new-ish, and not thinking about FPL at all until the weekend before. I feel that not obsessing for weeks and overthinking everything might help me not, well, overthink. I only did about two weeks prep last season, which I think worked, so let’s see how this goes…..

 

Remember, all predictions wrong or triple your money back!

Apologies in advance for delays in responding to comments, ’cause sleep and work. Stupid time zones.

Please let me know what I missed and messed up in the comments. I’ll try and fix and add tomorrow afternoon.

And don’t forget Project Whinge just because I wrote a bunch of stuff after I talked about it!

Thanks for Reading!

 

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