Cow Talk – Round 18

Written by Father Dougal on July 19 2017

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

The cows are turning over. The ones we started with are pretty much topped out, their prices rising and falling with their scores. Makes for boring write ups, and not much to project. But, we have a whole new, well mostly new, set of cows! I’m going to drop the mature ones and start on the young ones. Not sure yet which one is Vyvyan….

 

Standard bits

When looking at projections, remember that a score over or under a player’s current average will affect not just the next week but the ones after it since their average, and thus the projections, will move along with the current week. If you think their current average is not a good predictor of future performance, take that into account when you plan.

Also, don’t forget that any cow is capable of a shock high or low score. Extra so if they have had one in the past. Every week I am reminded how these numbers are just a help in making decisions, and not predictions of what will actually happen.

This season I am including past weeks and more weeks ahead. After spending all that time on growth patterns it would be silly not to include the data needed to see them! I have also put historical numbers in gray, so it is easy to see projections vs reality.

Defenders

Scharenberg – Losing his job for a few weeks really messed up his growth. Seems to have a job again. Not likely to make tons of cash, but downgrade to a cheap enough rookie and you could end up with almost $200,000 to play with.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 164,000
2 164,000
3 164,000
4 164,000
5 164,000
6 164,000
7 164,000
8 164,000
9 164,000
10 65 164,000
11 46 164,000
12 69 164,000
13 201,400
14 201,400
15 201,400
16 57 201,400
17 70 224,500
18 61.4 252,000 Eagles
19 61.4 266,933 14,933 14,933 Crows
20 61.4 279,633 12,700 27,633 Roos

Ryan – Should have added him last week. One big rise then likely to slow down. 

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 117,300
2 117,300
3 117,300
4 117,300
5 117,300
6 117,300
7 117,300
8 117,300
9 117,300
10 117,300
11 37 117,300
12 87 117,300
13 117,300
14 49 117,300
15 65 163,800
16 91 209,900
17 67 245,500
18 66 279,400 Hawks
19 66 302,623 23,223 23,223 Giants
20 66 308,391 5,768 28,991 Suns

 

Midfielders

Witherden – Put him in the mids so there would be one! Wow is he doing well. I plan to keep him as a backup for a long time, plan to at least. Last round or two he could easily be upgrade-able for cheap, or a source of big cash if you have a trade to use to harvest him. His growth might only stop when the season does!

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 117,300
2 117,300
3 117,300
4 117,300
5 117,300
6 117,300
7 117,300
8 117,300
9 117,300
10 117,300
11 117,300
12 117,300
13 117,300
14 76 117,300
15 91 117,300
16 74 117,300
17 109 193,300
18 87.5 263,800 Blues
19 87.5 311,750 47,950 47,950 Eagles
20 87.5 352,515 40,765 88,715 Dogs
21 87.5 372,572 20,056 108,772 Priests
22 87.5 387,320 14,749 123,520 Wombats
23 87.5 398,073 10,753 134,273 Turnips

Rucks

Darcy – I had planned to get him in as a backup and downgrade before the carnage made that a bad plan.  He is doing ok for a rookie.  That 99 came too soon to get him to a high point, but at least moved his price up. Probably not going to be traded out by most people anyways.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 117,300
2 117,300
3 117,300
4 117,300
5 117,300
6 117,300
7 117,300
8 117,300
9 117,300
10 117,300
11 117,300
12 117,300
13 117,300
14 50 117,300
15 99 163,800
16 71 209,900
17 67 245,500
18 71.8 279,400 Hawks
19 71.8 296,339 16,939 16,939 Giants
20 71.8 308,878 12,539 29,478 Suns

 

Forwards

Parsons – From a cash point of view, he should be sold this or next week. Not sure a cash point of view matters for him. While his 32 was annoying, he averaged 65 if he came on as an emergency both of the last two weeks. Not so bad really.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 117,300
2 117,300
3 60 117,300
4 68 117,300
5 117,300
6 117,300
7 19 117,300
8 38 152,300
9 47 168,000
10 42 170,500
11 56 182,500
12 199,000
13 51 199,000
14 82 213,300
15 49 241,800
16 98 258,800
17 32 292,000
18 53.5 294,100 Crows
19 53.5 297,576 3,476 3,476 Blues
20 53.5 280,365 -17,211 -13,735 Swans

 

Greenwood – Nice to have him back. Big money made, small money probable. Trade or hold as needed.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 117,300
2 117,300
3 117,300
4 117,300
5 117,300
6 117,300
7 117,300
8 117,300
9 104 117,300
10 72 117,300
11 72 117,300
12 68 196,900
13 240,000
14 127 240,000
15 84 296,300
16 342,000
17 71 342,000
18 85.4 376,600 Cats
19 85.4 383,473 6,873 6,873 Pies
20 85.4 389,158 5,684 12,558 Power

 

 

Other cow stuff:  The hotel California is turning into the roach motel California. Any cow who comes is now is almost certain to never leave. Like this bit of Cow Talk that was here last week. Seems to be stuck….

­Other non-cow stuff: Blah Blah Supercoach Carnage Blah

Apologizes for the minimal write-ups this week. I managed to have a power failure and am also under the weather. Had to choose between numbers and text this week, so of course picked numbers. So much for my plan to compare all the cows to styles of beer. Mmm, beer. There’s a Reddish-Brown Ale bubbling away about two meters from me, speaking of beer. Should be nice and ready in time for the GF. Makes it sort of like Hugh Greenwood…..

Remember the Craggy Island guarantee, all predictions wrong or double your money back!

­

Did I miss someone? Say so in the comments, and I’ll see what I can do.

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3 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 18”

  1. Greenwood and Witherden in the Hotel California! Great bench cover, and DPP status to boot.
    I think Scharenberg and Ryan get one more week, and then it’s off to the abattoir for them.

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    1. I don’t think I’ll have a trade for Scharenberg. Probably keep him. Trading out Parsons this week instead.

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