Cow Talk – Round 2

Written by Father Dougal on April 5 2017

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

A few rays of hope are shining through the dark clouds of the cow-pocalypse. The overall scoring for cows is still low, but there were more good matches and even tons!

This week is the week when people most want to know who to trade in and out. I tried to provide some useful data on that last week. We sure did see some up and downs. And “Captain” Brett Eddy has a new nickname! To me the data from last week says to be careful when trading, which is not to say don’t trade. Just don’t make short term and maybe even no term trades that will make me want to waive the ladle of sadness at you in a sad manner.

So when should you trade? I was pondering McCarthy to Will Hoskins-Elliot a lot since the round ended. How likely is McCarthy to turn up and put his first two matches aside, and WHE, won’t average a ton, and careful, conservative stuff like that. Then, like a bolt from the heavens, it struck me – a brick tossed by Father Jack. (Tired of Briiiiick.) But the brick knocked some sense into me. McCarthy is about as bad as bad gets in terms of a cowndidate for a cowrection. (Ok, upon re-reading that it could so be taken the wrong way, so please do not take it the wrong way. Thank you.) On the other end WHE is about as good a trade in correctional candidate as we are likely to see. If McCarthy to WHE isn’t a good correctional trade, then there is no such thing as a good correctional  cow trade. And since there is such a thing as a good correctional cow trade, McCarthy to WHE must be one.

Ok, so epicowly bad to great start is ok. That isn’t very informative, since hopefully we all knew that, even if it took me a bit of overthinking. Where is the line, or at least what neighborhood does the line live in?

Well, points are the end goal. How many points is a trade worth? I can think of an easy example, which at least gives a starting place. If you have one trade left, it is the last week, and you have an injured premium that needs to be replaced, that trade is worth a week of premium output. And we could totally have the same situation but with two weeks left in which case a trade is worth two weeks of premium output Call that 250 points. I won’t say trades aren’t worth more than 250 points, but I feel they are worth no less then 250 points. You know how I got that, so if you do not agree feel free to use your own number. It also happens that 250 points over 20 weeks, which is how many we have left per player after week 2, is 12.5 points a round. That implies that if you want to look at very long term trades a baseline is 12.5 points a round. Or better, 250 points over the course of a season. (Minimum.)

How much is that in money? I don’t know. I have yet to think of a good way to do that…..well. Ok, I just as I was typing thought of one. Literally…..So if we know that the floor is 12.5 a week, and we know what 12.5 points costs, which is $68,000, and that is way low. Darn. Well, thinking…..a trade let’s you upgrade from a cow to a premium. That means an increase of 50 points a round which is $272,000 per round left, which is….a lot very far from the end of the season…..well, there is probably a way to figure $ per point, when we find it we can use that times 250. Hmm, 12.5 per week time 20 week = 250, D’oh we knew that, well anyways, 250 = one milion…right, not that either…moving on…

Oh and I had something more numbers-ish actually planned. I took the list of all Cow Talk relevent cows from last season, and found who all of the over 100s and over 90s were scored against to see how that matched up with things like points allowed and %. It turns out there is some relationship, but that some team that let up a lot of points where stingy to cows, and some that let up few points still let up some big cow scores.

BRL 121 126 100 102 130 105 96
GCS 129 109 109 128
STK 100 135 126 111 91
GEE 106 130 102 103
NTH 104 105 112
WCE 101 108 101
CAR 126 109 98
COL 126 104 96
ESS 105 100 92 95
FRE 115
GWS 115 96
SYD 106
HAW 98
MEL 97
WBD
PTA
RIC
ADE

 

So what does this tell us?

Cows who play the teams prone to letting up good cow scores are your friends, and those who don’t let cows score even 90+ are not. Will the same teams do well and badly this season? Well, I bet some sure will.

What Else?

Trade that look like they will make you less than 250 points seem dodgy. That does not mean trade that look to make you more than 250 are okay, just that they are not, not okay.

Non – Cowish bit

The same logic that applies to the McCarthy –> WHE also applies to Hannebury –> Bontempelli, assuming you agree that Hamsters is injured. If you can’t collectively trade a premium playing with an injury, out of position, who is failing the eye test, and is averaging over 50 points below his last season out for The Bont, who I am sure needs no description, then you can’t collectively trade premiums ever. And while I am way against trading premiums just because you are sad about their start, like Treloar, who I have and have never considered trading, trading someone who is hurt….yeah, I can see that. Hmm, how many points would that be…..If Bont goes at 115 the rest of the way, and Hanners goes at 100 then that is 15 * 20 = 300. And I don’t think Hamsterberry is going to manage 100 a game over the next 20. If he does not, then that is even farther ahead. I guess I’m making two trades this round. Really wanted to make none. Obviously I didn’t expect that Hanners and McCarthy would be Deluxe Devo Spudboys this season. (This is why you should never take advice from me.)

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20 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 2”

  1. I was planning to bring Butler in this week but after reading your article last week Im considering just holding trades as I dont know whether he is worth burning a trade.
    I used one trade in a panic last week for goldy to Stef martin so Im trying to be more conservative this week.
    My rookies at the moment are:
    Def: Mbank, Otten, Hampton, Stewart, Hibberd (to be replaced in next couple of weeks),
    Mid: Taranto, SPP, Barrett, Parfitt, Pickett,
    Fwd: WHE, FLorent, Houston, Eddy

    So I have all the main guys on the bubble except butler. My candidates to trade for him are florent, Parfitt or Pickett but I think all three have ok JS for the time being. Also if I trade one of them to Butler I lose my Mid/FWd rookie link.

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    1. Pickett to Butler via dpp might be worth consideration. Pickett is barely gonna make money, but Butler at -90 will make a motza.

      Considering you have florent to swap with pickett it should be on your radar.

      Don’t you have Dahl or Macrae?

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    2. How good do you think Butler is? Will he make $150,000 more than one of the others, or make it a lot faster? His big score is in R1, so his future few games are the really important ones.

      My research does show that this type of trade can be dodgy, but that does not mean a specific instance is.

      If you are actively trying to be conservative, hold off. I would say bring in him in is aggressive. (Which does not mean wrong.)

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      1. Passive and Aggressive are two perfectly ways to play SuperCoach. If you’re gunning for overall, you need to be as aggressive as you can. If you want to win your leagues against your mates and you’ve got a couple of carton of beer and bragging rights on the line, you can be more passive and picky on what you do.

        As Father said, there is no right or wrong on this. Go for the option that suits your needs.

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        1. Fair call guys, normally Id just be focusing on a cash league so Im still in that mindset. But this year I am lucky enough to be sitting in top 1000 after round two so maybe I should be more aggressive.
          Pending team selections I will probably go with Hutta’s suggestion earlier in the week of Florent to Butler.
          I will give pickett another go as he is playing the bombers this week and then the suns.

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  2. Im sorry if I seem slow, but those numbers in the table… are they cow scores against the club in each line? E.g. Relevant cash cows scored 121, 126, 100, 102, 130, 105 and 96 against the Lions last season?

    Which would mean, I would look for cows this season perhaps playing the majority of their upcoming games against teams in the top half of that table, in the hope they go large against them?

    If this is right, I should point out a caution that maybe those teams only had this many large cow scores against them, because they were the sides opposing coaches were more willing to start rookies against?

    If I have all this completely wrong, please forgive me my sins and go through scripture with me as you would with a 5-year-old. Thanks, love the work nonetheless!

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    1. You are correct, they are cow scores vs each club. I should have labeled that!

      I could not see a pattern in which clubs let up the high scores. Richmond letup points and would not be a club other team would be afraid to start cows against, and yet they let up zero good cow scores. The Eagles had a good defense and let up several good cow scores.

      Another factor is teams can’t let up high scores to cows that play for them. Essendon has a lot of cows last season, none of which score well against their own team,

      While it might change this season, I would expect many of the clubs that let cows score well last season to do that again. I like to look at who a cow is playing as part of my planning. (Thus the strength of schedule sermon.)

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  3. Thanks for the write up FD.

    I am interested in your thoughts on the cow they call Witts … he is not in my team as I went with Gawn and Sandi … but he has exceeeded my expectations … should I be condisering him?

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    1. Only cow I thought of getting in was Witts for Ryder. Bank that extra 200 thousand.
      T/U- That’s a good idea.
      T/D- Don’t be a donkey save the trade.

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    2. I feel safe in saying consider, yes. Huttabito is the best person to talk about specific rookies. I do better at finding patterns and gameplay stuff, while he is way into the specific players.

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  4. The following should only be considered as correction of rookies taking into consideration job security and hopefully natural progression;
    Defenders: Marchbank, Otten and possibly Hampton
    Mids: Powell- Pepper, Ainswoth and Taranto
    Rucks: Pruess and Witts
    Forwards: Hoskin-Elliott, Hannan, and Houston?
    In Waiting: Burton, Newman & Hayward.

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  5. I’m not as scientific as you FD but when looking at cow correction trades I generally only make them if I can get an extra 150k from the trade. Since that’s what I’m hoping to make from rookies anyway.
    So if I think McCarthy will make 50k profit but WHE will make 200k profit then it’s a good trade. Anything less than 100k is a definite no, and anything between 100-150k is a bit of a grey area depending on points gained, no. of trades left etc. Like I said not very scientific but it helps me not make stupid sideways trades as its actually very hard to gain 150k off a correction trade.

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    1. That is a good rule to follow. Trades may be worth more than $150,000 but they sure aren’t worth less.

      The other issues with McCarthy –> WHE is timing. WHE will make money much sooner than McCarthy will. Enough so that having it sooner could make a difference on when you can bring a premium in. Both more and faster cash. If we wait long enough McCarthy will probably make as much as WHE, but fast money is important.

      Context means more than the flat sum of money. Will be talking about that some next week actually.

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    2. By that logic, should we trade Roughie for WHE given they will average a similar amount but WHE is $150k cheaper?

      I was considering Taranto for WHE but I feel Taranto may improve quickly.

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      1. If $150,000 is a minimum, that means it is not clearly a bad trade. I would not go as far as to say it meant it was a good one.

        Not an issue for me since I need to deal with McCarthy. Hmm. I wouldn’t say Roughy needs to be dealt with, which would make me less interested in trading him out.

        (edit) Oh, and I think Roughy will average higher then WHE over the season, which to me means a point cost as well as the cost of the trade to get the money. If you think they will average about the same, then it is just trade for money.

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      2. I agree with FD on this one, the difference will probably be a bit under 150k and if theres a point loss then there’s no grey area for me, it’s a definite no. Also it depends whether you consider Roughie a cow or keeper. If you think he’s a cow then you probably shouldn’t have picked him to start with, because he was never gonna make much cash. I say back your preseason judgement and hope he starts producing keeper scores.

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  6. Let’s hope the cow doesn’t take the cowrection the wrong way…

    What do you think of a cowrection for a double-barrel to another double-barrel?
    Horlin-Smith for Hoskin-Elliott?

    I took Horlin-Smith instead of Taranto as it was only a little more and I like the fact that he was getting a good run in the guts, but he just hasn’t come to the party points wise. Now he’s got a broken thumb and out for 1 week, but with Cam Guthrie getting closer to go and Menegola racking up the possessions in the VFL, it’s up in the air.

    TU – Bring in WHE
    TD – Sit tight with Horlin-Smith

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    1. You had me thinking “good idea” at “broken thumb.”

      I get wary right away when someone is injured.

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  7. For those trying to decide whether to get rid of Pickett or guys like Bowes / Florent (like I am), I just used Father D’s growth tables from the pre-season and note that if Florent maintains his 40 ave and Picket maintains a 30 ave they will pretty much gain the same amount of cash by rd 6 ($32k vs roughly $26k).
    Factor in that Pickett is around $50k cheaper and has the bombers and Suns coming up I am leaning towards holding him and trading Florent for Butler.

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