Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows
A few rays of hope are shining through the dark clouds of the cow-pocalypse. The overall scoring for cows is still low, but there were more good matches and even tons!
This week is the week when people most want to know who to trade in and out. I tried to provide some useful data on that last week. We sure did see some up and downs. And “Captain” Brett Eddy has a new nickname! To me the data from last week says to be careful when trading, which is not to say don’t trade. Just don’t make short term and maybe even no term trades that will make me want to waive the ladle of sadness at you in a sad manner.
So when should you trade? I was pondering McCarthy to Will Hoskins-Elliot a lot since the round ended. How likely is McCarthy to turn up and put his first two matches aside, and WHE, won’t average a ton, and careful, conservative stuff like that. Then, like a bolt from the heavens, it struck me – a brick tossed by Father Jack. (Tired of Briiiiick.) But the brick knocked some sense into me. McCarthy is about as bad as bad gets in terms of a cowndidate for a cowrection. (Ok, upon re-reading that it could so be taken the wrong way, so please do not take it the wrong way. Thank you.) On the other end WHE is about as good a trade in correctional candidate as we are likely to see. If McCarthy to WHE isn’t a good correctional trade, then there is no such thing as a good correctional cow trade. And since there is such a thing as a good correctional cow trade, McCarthy to WHE must be one.
Ok, so epicowly bad to great start is ok. That isn’t very informative, since hopefully we all knew that, even if it took me a bit of overthinking. Where is the line, or at least what neighborhood does the line live in?
Well, points are the end goal. How many points is a trade worth? I can think of an easy example, which at least gives a starting place. If you have one trade left, it is the last week, and you have an injured premium that needs to be replaced, that trade is worth a week of premium output. And we could totally have the same situation but with two weeks left in which case a trade is worth two weeks of premium output Call that 250 points. I won’t say trades aren’t worth more than 250 points, but I feel they are worth no less then 250 points. You know how I got that, so if you do not agree feel free to use your own number. It also happens that 250 points over 20 weeks, which is how many we have left per player after week 2, is 12.5 points a round. That implies that if you want to look at very long term trades a baseline is 12.5 points a round. Or better, 250 points over the course of a season. (Minimum.)
How much is that in money? I don’t know. I have yet to think of a good way to do that…..well. Ok, I just as I was typing thought of one. Literally…..So if we know that the floor is 12.5 a week, and we know what 12.5 points costs, which is $68,000, and that is way low. Darn. Well, thinking…..a trade let’s you upgrade from a cow to a premium. That means an increase of 50 points a round which is $272,000 per round left, which is….a lot very far from the end of the season…..well, there is probably a way to figure $ per point, when we find it we can use that times 250. Hmm, 12.5 per week time 20 week = 250, D’oh we knew that, well anyways, 250 = one milion…right, not that either…moving on…
Oh and I had something more numbers-ish actually planned. I took the list of all Cow Talk relevent cows from last season, and found who all of the over 100s and over 90s were scored against to see how that matched up with things like points allowed and %. It turns out there is some relationship, but that some team that let up a lot of points where stingy to cows, and some that let up few points still let up some big cow scores.
So what does this tell us?
Cows who play the teams prone to letting up good cow scores are your friends, and those who don’t let cows score even 90+ are not. Will the same teams do well and badly this season? Well, I bet some sure will.
Trade that look like they will make you less than 250 points seem dodgy. That does not mean trade that look to make you more than 250 are okay, just that they are not, not okay.
Non – Cowish bit
The same logic that applies to the McCarthy –> WHE also applies to Hannebury –> Bontempelli, assuming you agree that Hamsters is injured. If you can’t collectively trade a premium playing with an injury, out of position, who is failing the eye test, and is averaging over 50 points below his last season out for The Bont, who I am sure needs no description, then you can’t collectively trade premiums ever. And while I am way against trading premiums just because you are sad about their start, like Treloar, who I have and have never considered trading, trading someone who is hurt….yeah, I can see that. Hmm, how many points would that be…..If Bont goes at 115 the rest of the way, and Hanners goes at 100 then that is 15 * 20 = 300. And I don’t think Hamsterberry is going to manage 100 a game over the next 20. If he does not, then that is even farther ahead. I guess I’m making two trades this round. Really wanted to make none. Obviously I didn’t expect that Hanners and McCarthy would be Deluxe Devo Spudboys this season. (This is why you should never take advice from me.)
Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom