Cow Talk Round 2 –> 3

Written by Father Dougal on April 3 2019

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Warning, FD is about to quote Beavis and/or Butthead!

(Head-banging motions) Breakin the Law! Breaking the Law!

Not exactly appropriate for a priest

Shows what you know, that was by Judas the Priest!

…..right…..

Anyways, it is the week for confessing our sins and trying to correct them. Almost everyone sins some, but only a few of us have the courage to stay the course and stick to our sins!  

And why doesn’t everyone atone for their sins? Who sticks to their sins for…gosh…sakes?

Because of the pennance! See, when you sin and want to make it better, you have to do this pennace thing. In Supercoach, it means you give up a trade. And some of us do not like giving up our trades. Using trades when you do not need to is Bad. Almost a sin in fact.

So people who fix their sins are sinning again to fix them?

Right! That’s why you need to be really sure you are fixing your sin and not just finding a creative new way to sin. You could end up sinning three times!

So, this is another rant about not trading?

Nope, not at all! Quite the opposite. Note the whole “Breaking the Law” thing above? That’s because, despite the danger of multiple sins leading to serious wailing and gnashing of teeth, I’m going to encourage people not to be too stuck on the whole “rules and laws” stuff people always trot out this time of year.

….Are you trying to improve your own rank by misleading others?

Nope.

Been struck on the head recently? Maybe we need to use the cowncussion protocol?

Nope again. You see, the laws and rules about Supercoach are just ways to encourage people not to do things that we know are considered harmful. Stuff like licking raw chicken and GOTO statements. New players are prone to do things like sideways trade premiums that are very likely to go badly, and so we try to discourage people from doing those things until they have a better idea what they are doing. I know I needed that sort of help when I was first starting.

Understatement

Yeah, can’t argue. But, firstly, helpful as the Supercoach code is, it is more for new coaches than experienced ones. Secondly, people should be able to have fun and take punts if that is what they really enjoy.  And thirdly, the code is more what you’d call “guidelines” than actual rules.

“Never sideways trade premiums.” Ok, what if they are hurt, are they still a premium? What if they are not a premium anymore. Thought they were, but oops, now not so much. Maybe a lot not so much. Most of the time, a bad week or two is just a bad week or two, but sometimes is isn’t. Dan Hannebery has had a bad two weeks that has lasted over a year. He’s a great example of both a player’s first two weeks being well below the rest of his season and of someone who it made sense to trade out.

Both at the same time?!?!?

Yup. So, in 2016 he averaged 113.4. His first two scores in 2017 were 52 and 71. That promoted much discussion about trading him out before his price dropped, etc, with much “never sideways trade your premiums” and “He will do better the rest of the season” and all that we hear now. I owned him and watched both of those matches, and he looked wrong to me. That boy was not right. So, I decided to sideways trade him.

How did that work out?

His average over the rest of the 2017 season was 101.1.  Now, that is way better than his first two week’s average of 61.5. On the other hand it was 12.3 points less than he was priced to average. So, if you traded him to another premium who was priced at or below their average, you came out ahead. I had seven candidates for his replacement, six of them were clearly better and would have been successful as replacements. I, of course, picked #7 but still came out just barely ahead.  (More details in last years R2 Cow talk for those who care)

But, take Lachie Neale last season. First two scores of 99 and 96.  Next two of 77 and 85. Time to jump off? Nope, he went for 116.9 from R5 on! Can you imagine trading him out after his 4 poor rounds, taking a $37k loss on him and then seeing him score like that? Spending a trade to get a lot fewer points?

I do not like to imagine that.

Right, that is what the whole “do not sideways trade premiums” is about. Someone is always going to have bad luck to start. 1 week, two weeks, four weeks, whatever. If they are not hurt and have not had their role changed, gotten too old, or some other clear reason for the change, stick with them. But, if there is a clear reason, then you should think about replacing them.

Hibberd last year is a good example. Had a 99 average in 2017, had a 73 average over Rounds 1 and 2, and then had a 73 average the rest of the season.  His role changed. He looked kinda dodgy. People who kept him suffered for it, people who traded him sideways came out ahead, assuming they picked a good guy to bring in, like Laird.

If you are sure you need to get rid of a premium, for sure bring in someone you are sure of. You have to get the joiner part right as well as the leaver part.

A lot of people last year jumped on Charlie Curnow after R2 last season. His first two scores were 126 and 96, cost $408k. He looked just like a player who was breaking out. Was his 3rd year, had averaged 74 in 21 games his second year, but oh, was he a trap. He averaged 73.8 the rest of the season. Or Zac Fisher, who I brought in for $263k to replace an injured guy, Started with a 93 and 110, then averaged 68.5 the rest of the year. Did make about $100k on him at least thanks to one other well timed big score, but the points, owch.  Oh, and Riley Bonner. He was talked up big pre-season, and if you started with him, not too bad, starting with a 119 and 76. Then a lot of people made him the incoming part of a corrective trade, and spent $257,300 for someone who averaged 59.7 for the rest of the year.

Oh, another thing I just this moment realized. Later in the season, it is much easier to know you are not wasting a trade. When a long term injury hits a premium, you can be 100% sure you are making good use of a trade by swapping him for another premium.

So, should you follow the code? I’m not without sin, and so won’t cast first scone, which I think is a waste of good breakfast food anyways. If, for example, Dusty averages 93 the rest of the year, and you swap him for Rocky who averages 115 and plays 20 more games, well of course you came out way ahead. If Dusty averages 103 like he was priced at, then you are still ahead with 115 x 20 from Rocky.  But if Rocky pops a whatever R5, scores 12 and then is out for 8 weeks, owch. Or maybe not owch if he made enough by then. I sure can’t predict what either of them will do. What I will say is don’t make any moves you can’t handle being wrong about.

Corrective trading premiums is like eating fugu. Rewarding with careful preparation and some luck, but if things go wrong….

Thanks for….

Eating fugu, where the bleep did that come from?

I don’t know. I just thought of it. And I was wrapping up.

You talked about both Beavis and Butthead, and sin and you end with fugu? The deadly to eat if not prepared right pufferfish, which I mention because lots of people may not even know what it is.

Well, yeah

You had a good point up there about sin, meaning bad picks to start, and then more sin burning a trade on someone who ends up fine, with the extra third sin of bringing in someone who then chokes and hoses you, meaning you spent a trade to end up worse off. Follow up on that!

You just did.

Oh. Nevermind.

So we’re done?

No, you have not talked about the thing

Right! I want to follow up this year’s post on corrective trades next year. But, I am travelling the end of this week and weekend. Is there anyone out there willing to save the data about the 10-20 most popular trades “who in for who out” this round, and who the top 10-12 overall traded outs and traded ins are? If so I would really appreciate it and will say nice things about you in this post next year, even if I have to make them up.

Thanks for reading!

 

 

 

 

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27 thoughts on “Cow Talk Round 2 –> 3”

    1. I am neutral on that, because I just don’t have a good guess at what they will do. And I don’t own Dusty so have not thought too hard about him! I can imagine it going either way. I’m pretty sure other people have put more thought into it.

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  1. I broke this rule, but it was to fix my team structure. Too many premiums in the guts and not enough up forward.
    I was running 6 premos and 2 rookies in the middle
    and 3 premos and 3 rookies up front.

    Martin down to a good mid rookie
    Bad fwd rookie up to Kelly

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  2. This may break some heavenly rules. I made a mistake not starting with Grundy.
    Therefore I am considering Merret to Libba[+$240000] then Goldy to Grundy
    Still have 30 trades but not Drew. Any Godly help with be greatly appreciated.

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      1. Goldstein will also drop this week – based on current averages, about 24k (compared to 30k for Grundy). That being said, I would prioritize the other two trades anyway.

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  3. I was mid- rule breaking before I read this as I was jumping from Zerrett to Fyfe purely due to fyfes must-have form.

    However, the section about how Hannebery ‘didn’t look right’ in 2017 stood out to me. I watched Zerrett very closely on the weekend and he looked really good. He was running hard late and was pigging in a similar vein to what I’ve seen in previous years. On the contrary Fyfe was obviously great early in his game but late looked like he was managing his body and did not stand out. His score suggests otherwise but I’m still not sold on his body to burn a sideways trade (+60k) to get him in. He’ll prove me wrong of course but hey, I’ll keep the faith.

    Cheers FD

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    1. I would put the house on it that Fyfe doesn’t see out the entire season. If you want him this is probably the last time I’d consider bringing him in, otherwise you’ll be burning two trades getting him in and out.
      Zerrett scoring at 1.2ppm last week, still elite. I’m already looking to bring him in as a fallen premo soon…..

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      1. LOL you guys and your refusal to accept that Merret is finished as far as SC relevance is concerned are hilarious.
        There are 37 players currently scoring at 1.2ppm or better and 24 of them are cheaper than Merrett.
        4 players have the exact same average minutes p/game as Merrett and only 1 of them has a lower ave than him Mathieson 83.0. The other 3 are JPK ave 115.5, Gresham ave 103.5 and Dusty with the same ave as Merrett 87.5.

        There is absolutely nothing about Merretts form to suggest that he’ll reverse the downwards trajectory that he’s been on since 2017. Unlike Dusty he doesn’t look disinterested Merrett is trying his hardest and giving his best but he’s just not good enough.
        A single good supercoach season does not make a Premo he’s what is known as a ‘flash in the pan that turned out to be fools gold’.
        Stop pumping him up due to your own prejudices/favoritism some people regard you guys as authorities on the game of supercoach.

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        1. “some people regard you guys as authorities on the game of supercoach”

          Wow! This really has brightened my day.

          By the way, you know who else has been on a “downward trajectory” since 2017? Patrick Dangerfield.

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          1. Sugercoating is optional apparently! Chin up boys: most of us truly appreciate the opinions and advice you provide us with

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        2. I considered starting Merret this year but his injury affected pre-season was the deal breaker. I don’t doubt Merret’s ability to still find it and score well. The thing that has changed in my mind was that I was expecting that the tag would go to Shiel freeing Merret up but this hasn’t seemed to happen. Like other players susceptible to a tag (Zorko I’m looking at you) other teams just keep going back there to shut down one of the oppositions best midfielders rather than trying to quell an A grader that will still get 30+ touches.

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        3. I have no problem with your differing opinion, healthy debate is what keeps the Forum interesting.
          For the record, I don’t have him in my side. However, as I’ve said earlier, the kid is only 23 and has been a Top 8 MID twice already. To completely dismiss him would be a little short-sighted in my opinion. Especially when you take the “Fallen Premium principle” into account. For example, he had a famous slow start last season yet came home with tons in (I believe) 12 of the last 13 games of 2018. For those Coaches that picked him up cheap as M8 mid-season, it was quite a wise move. I haven’t completely closed the door on him, that’s all.
          For a list of guys I have given up on, head to the “Corrective Trading” thread that I posted on Monday.
          As for “authorities”, we do our best to get as much info out as possible. What you do with that info and to your team is all yours. Good luck!

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        4. But he didn’t have just one good season. He had two. Three if you take out the first part of last year.

          That’s a pretty big flash in the pan…

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  4. Whose the better rookie out of scrimshaw & rozee? I have not seen much of either unfortunately.. scrimshaw May make a few dollars more but a DPP swing between Moore/rozee is enticing ..

    It’ll be Greene to one of the above

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  5. Brilliant stuff FD.

    My new rule to myself is, “if you didn’t start them, leave them”, with reference to those injury-prone, big-starting popular INs this week, eg Rockliff, Fyfe etc.

    May hurt if they do magically end up playing 22 games, but will hurt a hell of a lot more, if you do bring them in … and then they don’t!

    Even great starters like Kelly and Lloyd, will likely have the odd bad game and will be cheaper than they are now at some point down the track. With the multiplier already estimated to put 4.75% downward pressure on premos (based on this week’s BEs), it’ll be almost impossible to maintain their prices.

    Don’t panic. Think long-term and ONLY make the trades you HAVE TO, would be my tuppence worth.

    Lessons from last year are still very fresh 😉

    Thanks again FD.

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  6. I’m correcting. Ridley to proper rookie and Yeo to Neale.
    If Yeo has another ordinary game, his price will plummet! BE 181 or so this week.

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  7. Love the debate on Merrett, FWIW I find the contributors to this website second to none and are a wealth of information. I was so badly burnt by Billings last year that I still have the scars to show it . Cash generation is hard to find in the early rounds so shorting on premiums has become my new method of obtaining it. Nobody will agree with my ‘corrective trades’ but they have generated 250k+ in cash and on top of that the ‘Midpricers’ of Sheed and Boak will increase in price so that any trade to a proven premium in another 3-4 weeks will be with a minimum of cash outlay. The one up one down trade may only need to be a one up trade thus saving trades down the track.
    Trades thus far;
    Out. Merrett In Sheed after rnd 1

    Out.Heeney , Ridley rnd 2
    In. Boak , Rozee

    There is nothing to say that both of Heeney/ Merret won’t be back in my side but I need evidence of a form reversal.If Heeney is injured and is sitting in the fwd line pushing out scores of 70’s for the next 2-4 weeks, then it’s a good move, if he pumps out 140 next week then there’s egg on my face.That’s SC.

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