Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows
Warning, FD is about to quote Beavis and/or Butthead!
(Head-banging motions) Breakin the Law! Breaking the Law!
Not exactly appropriate for a priest
Shows what you know, that was by Judas the Priest!
Anyways, it is the week for confessing our sins and trying to correct them. Almost everyone sins some, but only a few of us have the courage to stay the course and stick to our sins!
And why doesn’t everyone atone for their sins? Who sticks to their sins for…gosh…sakes?
Because of the pennance! See, when you sin and want to make it better, you have to do this pennace thing. In Supercoach, it means you give up a trade. And some of us do not like giving up our trades. Using trades when you do not need to is Bad. Almost a sin in fact.
So people who fix their sins are sinning again to fix them?
Right! That’s why you need to be really sure you are fixing your sin and not just finding a creative new way to sin. You could end up sinning three times!
So, this is another rant about not trading?
Nope, not at all! Quite the opposite. Note the whole “Breaking the Law” thing above? That’s because, despite the danger of multiple sins leading to serious wailing and gnashing of teeth, I’m going to encourage people not to be too stuck on the whole “rules and laws” stuff people always trot out this time of year.
….Are you trying to improve your own rank by misleading others?
Been struck on the head recently? Maybe we need to use the cowncussion protocol?
Nope again. You see, the laws and rules about Supercoach are just ways to encourage people not to do things that we know are considered harmful. Stuff like licking raw chicken and GOTO statements. New players are prone to do things like sideways trade premiums that are very likely to go badly, and so we try to discourage people from doing those things until they have a better idea what they are doing. I know I needed that sort of help when I was first starting.
Yeah, can’t argue. But, firstly, helpful as the Supercoach code is, it is more for new coaches than experienced ones. Secondly, people should be able to have fun and take punts if that is what they really enjoy. And thirdly, the code is more what you’d call “guidelines” than actual rules.
“Never sideways trade premiums.” Ok, what if they are hurt, are they still a premium? What if they are not a premium anymore. Thought they were, but oops, now not so much. Maybe a lot not so much. Most of the time, a bad week or two is just a bad week or two, but sometimes is isn’t. Dan Hannebery has had a bad two weeks that has lasted over a year. He’s a great example of both a player’s first two weeks being well below the rest of his season and of someone who it made sense to trade out.
Both at the same time?!?!?
Yup. So, in 2016 he averaged 113.4. His first two scores in 2017 were 52 and 71. That promoted much discussion about trading him out before his price dropped, etc, with much “never sideways trade your premiums” and “He will do better the rest of the season” and all that we hear now. I owned him and watched both of those matches, and he looked wrong to me. That boy was not right. So, I decided to sideways trade him.
How did that work out?
His average over the rest of the 2017 season was 101.1. Now, that is way better than his first two week’s average of 61.5. On the other hand it was 12.3 points less than he was priced to average. So, if you traded him to another premium who was priced at or below their average, you came out ahead. I had seven candidates for his replacement, six of them were clearly better and would have been successful as replacements. I, of course, picked #7 but still came out just barely ahead. (More details in last years R2 Cow talk for those who care)
But, take Lachie Neale last season. First two scores of 99 and 96. Next two of 77 and 85. Time to jump off? Nope, he went for 116.9 from R5 on! Can you imagine trading him out after his 4 poor rounds, taking a $37k loss on him and then seeing him score like that? Spending a trade to get a lot fewer points?
I do not like to imagine that.
Right, that is what the whole “do not sideways trade premiums” is about. Someone is always going to have bad luck to start. 1 week, two weeks, four weeks, whatever. If they are not hurt and have not had their role changed, gotten too old, or some other clear reason for the change, stick with them. But, if there is a clear reason, then you should think about replacing them.
Hibberd last year is a good example. Had a 99 average in 2017, had a 73 average over Rounds 1 and 2, and then had a 73 average the rest of the season. His role changed. He looked kinda dodgy. People who kept him suffered for it, people who traded him sideways came out ahead, assuming they picked a good guy to bring in, like Laird.
If you are sure you need to get rid of a premium, for sure bring in someone you are sure of. You have to get the joiner part right as well as the leaver part.
A lot of people last year jumped on Charlie Curnow after R2 last season. His first two scores were 126 and 96, cost $408k. He looked just like a player who was breaking out. Was his 3rd year, had averaged 74 in 21 games his second year, but oh, was he a trap. He averaged 73.8 the rest of the season. Or Zac Fisher, who I brought in for $263k to replace an injured guy, Started with a 93 and 110, then averaged 68.5 the rest of the year. Did make about $100k on him at least thanks to one other well timed big score, but the points, owch. Oh, and Riley Bonner. He was talked up big pre-season, and if you started with him, not too bad, starting with a 119 and 76. Then a lot of people made him the incoming part of a corrective trade, and spent $257,300 for someone who averaged 59.7 for the rest of the year.
Oh, another thing I just this moment realized. Later in the season, it is much easier to know you are not wasting a trade. When a long term injury hits a premium, you can be 100% sure you are making good use of a trade by swapping him for another premium.
So, should you follow the code? I’m not without sin, and so won’t cast first scone, which I think is a waste of good breakfast food anyways. If, for example, Dusty averages 93 the rest of the year, and you swap him for Rocky who averages 115 and plays 20 more games, well of course you came out way ahead. If Dusty averages 103 like he was priced at, then you are still ahead with 115 x 20 from Rocky. But if Rocky pops a whatever R5, scores 12 and then is out for 8 weeks, owch. Or maybe not owch if he made enough by then. I sure can’t predict what either of them will do. What I will say is don’t make any moves you can’t handle being wrong about.
Corrective trading premiums is like eating fugu. Rewarding with careful preparation and some luck, but if things go wrong….
Eating fugu, where the bleep did that come from?
I don’t know. I just thought of it. And I was wrapping up.
You talked about both Beavis and Butthead, and sin and you end with fugu? The deadly to eat if not prepared right pufferfish, which I mention because lots of people may not even know what it is.
You had a good point up there about sin, meaning bad picks to start, and then more sin burning a trade on someone who ends up fine, with the extra third sin of bringing in someone who then chokes and hoses you, meaning you spent a trade to end up worse off. Follow up on that!
You just did.
So we’re done?
No, you have not talked about the thing
Right! I want to follow up this year’s post on corrective trades next year. But, I am travelling the end of this week and weekend. Is there anyone out there willing to save the data about the 10-20 most popular trades “who in for who out” this round, and who the top 10-12 overall traded outs and traded ins are? If so I would really appreciate it and will say nice things about you in this post next year, even if I have to make them up.
Thanks for reading!
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