Cow Talk – Round 4

Written by Father Dougal on April 18 2018

“Small or Far Away” Father Dougal on Cows

Here at last, the first projections of the season! But, not only the traditional price change projections, but also, new this very week, introduced in a sentence with lots of commas, piles of commas, big huge heaping gobs of commas, enough with the commas, my very own time/cash value ratings!

You appear to have substituted commas for clarity.

God….darn it, please don’t come in and ruin my big announcement!

The commas did that. Anyways, what the heck is time/cash value? 

I’m so glad you asked!

You told me to ask. 

Right, but you didn’t have to say that out loud, so to speak. The first Cow Talk of the season with projections is not a quick one you know.

Fair point, sorry.

Right, so “I’m glad you asked” I said. Earlier this season I talked about the value of fast points and ran a bunch of charts showing how getting fewer points per round early can be more valuable than getting more points per round late. That idea is true for cash as well, since cash can be traded for goods and services, such as players who get you points.  So, is less cash sooner better than more cash later? Clearly it depends on how much cash and how much time is left in the season.

Let’s look at Murray’s numbers below. (First of the Defenders.) To start, there is no room for the column showing who he will play over the next weeks, but that is available lots of other places so it made way for the numbers. The numbers in grey are historical. The rest of the numbers are projections of some kind.

Column by column:

Week is weeks of play with price changes. At the moment it does not include byes, because they are a huge pain to add in and I haven’t done that yet. Will have to happen soon, probably week after next. I usually dodge this issue by not projecting out more than 4 weeks, but with the new numbers, projections farther out are actually useful so I can’t hide my delay in getting the byes set up anymore. It will end up being the gameweek, or round.

Score is his historical scores or the average of his historical scores.

Price is his historical price or his projected scores, assuming he scores his current average every week. The next week’s multiplier is calculated from the breakevens, (lots of them averaged, sort of) the rest are historical.

Proj. Change is how much his price is expected to change that round.

Total Proj is the total price projection between now and that week.

Time/Cash Value is the Total Proj * the rounds of scoring left after that round has been played. Murray is projected to go up $53,657 between rounds 5 and 6. Since he will play in 16 rounds after Round 6, we multiply $53,657 by 16 and get $858,509. Which is wrong, because the real product of $53,657 * 16 is $858,512. The difference is because I am rounding the numbers for display but not in the calculations. Since the rounding error is so small I don’t try and correct for it. After all, these numbers in the game are rounded to the nearest $100, so off by $3 does not bother me. Much. Now for just the next week that number is useless, but since we have the same number for all the future weeks, we can compare them and see if the player is worth holding to make the extra week’s cash, or if we are better off using that cash sooner.

Whoa!

Yeah, that’s a big bit.  For Murray, his TCV peaks at round nine, and starts going down after that.

Change is how much his TCV goes up each round. When that number starts getting small, there is less cost to harvesting him sooner if you can use the money. We can’t control when the downgrade targets or fallen premiums show up, and using this number we can see how much we are giving up if we go early on him.

Extracted Time/Cash Value takes into account that we don’t get all of the cash from a downgrade target. This is the projected value of the player, minus $123,900, then multiplied by the number of scoring rounds left.  This can be used on historical weeks too, which is nice if you want to decide if you are better off selling this week or next week, which TCV doesn’t help with. Interestingly enough it does not peak at the same time as TCV.

Change is how much his ETCV goes up each round. When that number starts getting small, there is less cost to harvesting him sooner if you can use the money. And yes I have two columns named change. I am sure we can all keep track of which change column applies to TCV and ETCV.

The one to the left of it?

Sigh, yes, exactly. Anyway, if you plan to downgrade Murray it looks like the best time would be Round 8, with Round 7 a close second. If you plan to use him to upgrade from it looks like the best time would be Round 9, with Round 8 being a not bad option. At least that is what I am taking from his numbers. It could all just be madness

Nonsense!

Not helping with the “not madness” idea there mate….

 

Defenders

Sam Murray One of those cows who gets a lot of value from their points, to some degree making all the new numbers not quite as useful. No rush to do anything with him, so we can monitor week by week.

 

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Time/Cash Value Change Extracted Time/Cash Value Change
1 72 123,900
2 58 123,900
3 95 123,900
4 92 191,700 1,220,400
5 79.25 251,200 2,164,100 943,700
6 79.25 304,857 53,657 53,657 858,509 858,509 2,895,309 731,209
7 79.25 338,743 33,886 87,543 1,313,148 454,639 3,222,648 327,339
8 79.25 356,857 18,113 105,657 1,479,191 166,043 3,261,391 38,743
9 79.25 370,310 13,453 119,110 1,548,427 69,236 3,203,327 -58,064
10 79.25 379,430 9,120 128,230 1,538,762 -9,665 3,066,362 -136,965
11 79.25 385,817 6,387 134,617 1,480,784 -57,977 2,881,084 -185,277
12 79.25 390,799 4,982 139,599 1,395,992 -84,792 2,668,992 -212,092
13 79.25 394,012 3,212 142,812 1,285,304 -110,689 2,431,004 -237,989
14 79.25 393,659 -353 142,459 1,139,672 -145,632 2,158,072 -272,932
15 79.25 396,421 2,762 145,221 1,016,545 -123,127 1,907,645 -250,427
16 79.25 397,717 1,296 146,517 879,102 -137,443 1,642,902 -264,743
17 79.25 397,264 -453 146,064 730,320 -148,782 1,366,820 -276,082
18 79.25 396,229 -1,035 145,029 580,115 -150,205 1,089,315 -277,505
19 79.25 395,018 -1,211 143,818 431,453 -148,662 813,353 -275,962
20 79.25 393,944 -1,074 142,744 285,487 -145,966 540,087 -273,266
21 79.25 392,958 -985 141,758 141,758 -143,729 269,058 -271,029
22 79.25 392,374 -585 141,174 0 -141,758 0 -269,058

 

Jeremy Finlayson Also one of those cows who gets a lot of value from their points, to some degree making all the new numbers not quite as useful. No rush to do anything with him either; we can monitor week by week. 

 

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Time/Cash Value Change Extracted Time/Cash Value Change
1 87 123,900
2 106 123,900
3 77 123,900
4 101 211,900 1,584,000
5 92.75 283,600 2,714,900 1,130,900
6 92.75 330,210 46,610 46,610 745,767 745,767 3,300,967 586,067
7 92.75 373,769 43,559 90,169 1,352,540 606,773 3,748,040 447,073
8 92.75 400,925 27,155 117,325 1,642,545 290,005 3,878,345 130,305
9 92.75 421,058 20,134 137,458 1,786,959 144,413 3,863,059 -15,287
10 92.75 434,988 13,930 151,388 1,816,660 29,702 3,733,060 -129,998
11 92.75 444,865 9,877 161,265 1,773,914 -42,746 3,530,614 -202,446
12 92.75 452,459 7,594 168,859 1,688,589 -85,326 3,285,589 -245,026
13 92.75 457,520 5,061 173,920 1,565,278 -123,311 3,002,578 -283,011
14 92.75 458,082 562 174,482 1,395,855 -169,423 2,673,455 -329,123
15 92.75 462,011 3,929 178,411 1,248,877 -146,979 2,366,777 -306,679
16 92.75 464,043 2,032 180,443 1,082,660 -166,217 2,040,860 -325,917
17 92.75 463,895 -148 180,295 901,476 -181,184 1,699,976 -340,884
18 92.75 462,964 -931 179,364 717,457 -184,019 1,356,257 -343,719
19 92.75 461,753 -1,212 178,153 534,458 -182,999 1,013,558 -342,699
20 92.75 460,646 -1,107 177,046 354,092 -180,366 673,492 -340,066
21 92.75 459,603 -1,043 176,003 176,003 -178,089 335,703 -337,789
22 92.75 458,998 -605 175,398 0 -176,003 0 -335,703

 

Tom Doedee Also one of those cows who….I sense a theme. See Murray and Finlayson

 

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Time/Cash Value Change Extracted Time/Cash Value Change
1 86 123,900
2 115 123,900
3 85 123,900
4 57 219,100 1,713,600
5 85.75 276,800 2,599,300 885,700
6 85.75 305,891 29,091 29,091 465,460 465,460 2,911,860 312,560
7 85.75 329,566 23,675 52,766 791,493 326,033 3,084,993 173,133
8 85.75 358,873 29,307 82,073 1,149,022 357,529 3,289,622 204,629
9 85.75 380,582 21,709 103,782 1,349,172 200,150 3,336,872 47,250
10 85.75 395,758 15,175 118,958 1,427,491 78,319 3,262,291 -74,581
11 85.75 406,583 10,825 129,783 1,427,611 120 3,109,511 -152,780
12 85.75 414,847 8,264 138,047 1,380,468 -47,142 2,909,468 -200,042
13 85.75 420,444 5,597 143,644 1,292,792 -87,676 2,668,892 -240,576
14 85.75 421,651 1,207 144,851 1,158,806 -133,986 2,382,006 -286,886
15 85.75 425,775 4,124 148,975 1,042,823 -115,983 2,113,123 -268,883
16 85.75 428,017 2,242 151,217 907,303 -135,521 1,824,703 -288,421
17 85.75 428,150 132 151,350 756,748 -150,555 1,521,248 -303,455
18 85.75 427,487 -663 150,687 602,748 -154,000 1,214,348 -306,900
19 85.75 426,512 -975 149,712 449,136 -153,612 907,836 -306,512
20 85.75 425,595 -917 148,795 297,590 -151,546 603,390 -304,446
21 85.75 424,708 -887 147,908 147,908 -149,682 300,808 -302,582
22 85.75 424,205 -503 147,405 0 -147,908 0 -300,808

 

Aaron Naughton is a fine example of being careful how much you try to get from the numbers. The projections are based on a 53 average, but his scoring pattern implies he will do better than that, in which case all the projections are low. Even if he does average 53 he’s got two more week of growth. 

 

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Time/Cash Value Change Extracted Time/Cash Value Change
1 25 166,800
2 48 166,800
3 61 166,800
4 78 182,400 1,053,000
5 53 218,400 1,606,500 553,500
6 53 247,182 28,782 28,782 460,514 460,514 1,972,514 366,014
7 53 266,022 18,840 47,622 714,329 253,815 2,131,829 159,315
8 53 267,766 1,744 49,366 691,120 -23,209 2,014,120 -117,709
9 53 269,122 1,357 50,722 659,390 -31,729 1,887,890 -126,229
10 53 269,553 431 51,153 613,839 -45,552 1,747,839 -140,052
11 53 269,643 89 51,243 563,669 -50,170 1,603,169 -144,670
12 53 269,906 263 51,506 515,059 -48,610 1,460,059 -143,110
13 53 269,789 -117 51,389 462,497 -52,562 1,312,997 -147,062
14 53 267,856 -1,933 49,456 395,646 -66,851 1,151,646 -161,351
15 53 268,490 634 50,090 350,628 -45,019 1,012,128 -139,519
16 53 268,460 -30 50,060 300,358 -50,270 867,358 -144,770
17 53 267,492 -968 49,092 245,458 -54,900 717,958 -149,400
18 53 266,310 -1,181 47,910 191,641 -53,817 569,641 -148,317
19 53 265,142 -1,168 46,742 140,226 -51,415 423,726 -145,915
20 53 264,162 -980 45,762 91,524 -48,702 280,524 -143,202
21 53 263,312 -850 44,912 44,912 -46,612 139,412 -141,112
22 53 262,782 -530 44,382 0 -44,912 0 -139,412

 

Midfielders

Tim Kelly Remember that theme from the defenders? Like that, but somehow with the chance of being a keeper. Chance.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Time/Cash Value Change Extracted Time/Cash Value Change
1 118 117,300
2 117 117,300
3 90 117,300
4 89 231,700 1,940,400
5 103.5 303,600 3,054,900 1,114,500
6 103.5 350,495 46,895 46,895 750,315 750,315 3,625,515 570,615
7 103.5 393,069 42,574 89,469 1,342,037 591,722 4,037,537 412,022
8 103.5 429,681 36,612 126,081 1,765,136 423,099 4,280,936 243,399
9 103.5 456,797 27,116 153,197 1,991,562 226,426 4,327,662 46,726
10 103.5 475,791 18,993 172,191 2,066,286 74,724 4,222,686 -104,976
11 103.5 489,356 13,566 185,756 2,043,317 -22,969 4,020,017 -202,669
12 103.5 499,697 10,341 196,097 1,960,974 -82,343 3,757,974 -262,043
13 103.5 506,723 7,026 203,123 1,828,110 -132,864 3,445,410 -312,564
14 103.5 508,383 1,660 204,783 1,638,265 -189,845 3,075,865 -369,545
15 103.5 513,506 5,123 209,906 1,469,340 -168,925 2,727,240 -348,625
16 103.5 516,319 2,814 212,719 1,276,316 -193,023 2,354,516 -372,723
17 103.5 516,559 239 212,959 1,064,793 -211,523 1,963,293 -391,223
18 103.5 515,817 -741 212,217 848,869 -215,924 1,567,669 -395,624
19 103.5 514,683 -1,134 211,083 633,250 -215,619 1,172,350 -395,319
20 103.5 513,608 -1,076 210,008 420,015 -213,234 779,415 -392,934
21 103.5 512,560 -1,048 208,960 208,960 -211,056 388,660 -390,756
22 103.5 511,970 -590 208,370 0 -208,960 0 -388,660

Nick Holman  He’s sort of an off key version of the theme.  A thirty-two means watch him closely. But if that is a one off, he’ll go right back to making cash even at a 75 average. Another low score and all bets are off.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Time/Cash Value Change Extracted Time/Cash Value Change
1 96 102,400
2 92 102,400
3 82 102,400
4 32 196,100 1,299,600
5 75.5 237,000 1,922,700 623,100
6 75.5 259,656 22,656 22,656 362,493 362,493 2,172,093 249,393
7 75.5 274,798 15,142 37,798 566,973 204,480 2,263,473 91,380
8 75.5 304,640 29,842 67,640 946,958 379,985 2,530,358 266,885
9 75.5 326,730 22,090 89,730 1,166,484 219,525 2,636,784 106,425
10 75.5 342,298 15,568 105,298 1,263,576 97,092 2,620,776 -16,008
11 75.5 353,458 11,160 116,458 1,281,034 17,458 2,525,134 -95,642
12 75.5 361,929 8,471 124,929 1,249,289 -31,745 2,380,289 -144,845
13 75.5 367,739 5,810 130,739 1,176,650 -72,639 2,194,550 -185,739
14 75.5 369,463 1,724 132,463 1,059,701 -116,949 1,964,501 -230,049
15 75.5 373,566 4,103 136,566 955,962 -103,739 1,747,662 -216,839
16 75.5 375,890 2,324 138,890 833,338 -122,624 1,511,938 -235,724
17 75.5 376,265 376 139,265 696,326 -137,012 1,261,826 -250,112
18 75.5 375,872 -393 138,872 555,489 -140,837 1,007,889 -253,937
19 75.5 375,153 -719 138,153 414,460 -141,029 753,760 -254,129
20 75.5 374,448 -706 137,448 274,895 -139,564 501,095 -252,664
21 75.5 373,741 -707 136,741 136,741 -138,154 249,841 -251,254
22 75.5 373,353 -388 136,353 0 -136,741 0 -249,841

 

Lachlan Fogarty Came from left field, and is looking quite fine as it turns out. Normal sort of growth curve. Nice to have for the few who have him. 

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Time/Cash Value Change Extracted Time/Cash Value Change
1 82 117,300
2 47 117,300
3 70 117,300
4 80 175,200 923,400
5 69.75 217,600 1,592,900 669,500
6 69.75 258,978 41,378 41,378 662,041 662,041 2,161,241 568,341
7 69.75 290,792 31,814 73,192 1,097,874 435,833 2,503,374 342,133
8 69.75 308,663 17,871 91,063 1,274,880 177,006 2,586,680 83,306
9 69.75 321,925 13,262 104,325 1,356,224 81,344 2,574,324 -12,356
10 69.75 331,007 9,082 113,407 1,360,879 4,655 2,485,279 -89,045
11 69.75 337,406 6,399 119,806 1,317,862 -43,017 2,348,562 -136,717
12 69.75 342,362 4,956 124,762 1,247,617 -70,244 2,184,617 -163,944
13 69.75 345,610 3,249 128,010 1,152,094 -95,523 1,995,394 -189,223
14 69.75 345,616 5 128,016 1,024,127 -127,967 1,773,727 -221,667
15 69.75 348,272 2,656 130,672 914,706 -109,421 1,570,606 -203,121
16 69.75 349,580 1,308 131,980 791,881 -122,825 1,354,081 -216,525
17 69.75 349,305 -275 131,705 658,525 -133,355 1,127,025 -227,055
18 69.75 348,485 -820 130,885 523,539 -134,986 898,339 -228,686
19 69.75 347,486 -999 129,886 389,657 -133,882 670,757 -227,582
20 69.75 346,589 -897 128,989 257,978 -131,679 445,378 -225,379
21 69.75 345,757 -832 128,157 128,157 -129,821 221,857 -223,521
22 69.75 345,269 -489 127,669 0 -128,157 0 -221,857

Bailey Banfield aka the “good ” steervodore.

Arrghhh!!

Ha, worked that right in. Amusing myself at least.  Will make decent money even with no big score, and if he gets just one ton he’ll be ready to sell at a nice price three weeks later.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Time/Cash Value Change Extracted Time/Cash Value Change
1 51 123,400
2 64 123,400
3 69 123,400
4 69 172,900 1,940,400
5 63.25 218,100 3,054,900 1,114,500
6 63.25 251,027 32,927 32,927 526,837 526,837 3,620,772 565,872
7 63.25 274,064 23,036 55,964 839,456 312,620 4,034,247 413,475
8 63.25 287,546 13,482 69,446 972,238 132,782 4,278,672 244,425
9 63.25 297,565 10,019 79,465 1,033,041 60,803 4,326,112 47,440
10 63.25 304,311 6,746 86,211 1,034,532 1,491 4,221,633 -104,478
11 63.25 309,015 4,704 90,915 1,000,067 -34,465 4,019,307 -202,326
12 63.25 312,703 3,688 94,603 946,033 -54,034 3,757,499 -261,808
13 63.25 315,054 2,351 96,954 872,587 -73,446 3,445,096 -312,404
14 63.25 314,613 -441 96,513 772,106 -100,481 3,075,661 -369,435
15 63.25 316,703 2,090 98,603 690,224 -81,882 2,727,108 -348,553
16 63.25 317,654 950 99,554 597,323 -92,902 2,354,433 -372,675
17 63.25 317,230 -424 99,130 495,649 -101,674 1,963,243 -391,191
18 63.25 316,357 -872 98,257 393,030 -102,619 1,567,640 -395,603
19 63.25 315,357 -1,000 97,257 291,772 -101,258 1,172,334 -395,306
20 63.25 314,476 -882 96,376 192,751 -99,021 779,407 -392,926
21 63.25 313,671 -804 95,571 95,571 -97,180 388,657 -390,751
22 63.25 313,191 -480 95,091 0 -95,571 0 -388,657

 

Jaidyn Stephenson  Well, I’d mock his blah growth, but he really isn’t doing that badly. One ton can mean another ton, and then his owner will be happy. The secret to biog cash is one or two well time high scores, no matter how much you spud up the rest of the time. We’ll watch him to see if he is a quick sell or has more money in him then just what he will get from his 115.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Time/Cash Value Change Extracted Time/Cash Value Change
1 62 180,300
2 64 180,300
3 33 180,300
4 115 203,600 1,434,600
5 68.5 245,100 2,060,400 625,800
6 68.5 277,758 32,658 32,658 522,532 522,532 2,461,732 401,332
7 68.5 319,373 41,615 74,273 1,114,099 591,567 2,932,099 470,367
8 68.5 328,048 8,675 82,948 1,161,276 47,177 2,858,076 -74,023
9 68.5 334,533 6,485 89,433 1,162,628 1,351 2,738,228 -119,849
10 68.5 338,600 4,067 93,500 1,121,999 -40,629 2,576,399 -161,829
11 68.5 341,305 2,705 96,205 1,058,254 -63,745 2,391,454 -184,945
12 68.5 343,545 2,241 98,445 984,455 -73,799 2,196,455 -194,999
13 68.5 344,797 1,251 99,697 897,271 -87,184 1,988,071 -208,384
14 68.5 343,350 -1,447 98,250 785,997 -111,274 1,755,597 -232,474
15 68.5 344,920 1,570 99,820 698,740 -87,256 1,547,140 -208,456
16 68.5 345,437 517 100,337 602,020 -96,720 1,329,220 -217,920
17 68.5 344,597 -839 99,497 497,487 -104,533 1,103,487 -225,733
18 68.5 343,373 -1,224 98,273 393,093 -104,394 877,893 -225,594
19 68.5 342,085 -1,288 96,985 290,956 -102,137 654,556 -223,337
20 68.5 340,981 -1,104 95,881 191,762 -99,194 434,162 -220,394
21 68.5 340,001 -980 94,901 94,901 -96,861 216,101 -218,061
22 68.5 339,401 -599 94,301 0 -94,901 0 -216,101

 

Andrew Brayshaw is the first of the Bad Cows. We have a small herd of cows not doing well. I’m struggling for a name for them all, working on it. Brayshaw is doing so badly, as the rest of his little herd, that I am not sure its worth the time to run their numbers!  We’ll see how they go, but at this rate I’m going to exile them to Mooron Pasture until they get better.

Oh come ON, you totally stole that!

Yes, yes I did. I’m weak. There was a Moo joke just so….there. It’s perfect. Mooron Pasture it is, and, well, my apologies to Cowvin.

Gak! Wait, he’s not even the right…never mind, just go on….

As an owner of Brayshaw, I hope he puts up a big score, but I will probably trade him out when there is a downgrade target I don’t want to miss, and I have no other good option.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Time/Cash Value Change Extracted Time/Cash Value Change
1 58 198,300
2 62 198,300
3 32 198,300
4 42 213,600 1,614,600
5 48.5 218,400 1,606,500 -8,100
6 48.5 215,839 -2,561 -2,561 -40,976 -40,976 1,471,024 -135,476
7 48.5 222,497 6,658 4,097 61,462 102,437 1,478,962 7,937
8 48.5 229,593 7,095 11,193 156,696 95,235 1,479,696 735
9 48.5 234,886 5,293 16,486 214,318 57,622 1,442,818 -36,878
10 48.5 238,286 3,400 19,886 238,638 24,320 1,372,638 -70,180
11 48.5 240,586 2,300 22,186 244,046 5,408 1,283,546 -89,092
12 48.5 242,454 1,868 24,054 240,544 -3,502 1,185,544 -98,002
13 48.5 243,549 1,094 25,149 226,337 -14,207 1,076,837 -108,707
14 48.5 242,680 -869 24,280 194,239 -32,098 950,239 -126,598
15 48.5 243,903 1,223 25,503 178,523 -15,716 840,023 -110,216
16 48.5 244,351 448 25,951 155,709 -22,814 722,709 -117,314
17 48.5 243,818 -533 25,418 127,092 -28,617 599,592 -123,117
18 48.5 242,997 -822 24,597 98,386 -28,705 476,386 -123,205
19 48.5 242,118 -879 23,718 71,153 -27,233 354,653 -121,733
20 48.5 241,360 -758 22,960 45,919 -25,233 234,919 -119,733
21 48.5 240,683 -677 22,283 22,283 -23,636 116,783 -118,136
22 48.5 240,272 -411 21,872 0 -22,283 0 -116,783

 

Paddy Dow is being exiled to Mooron Pasture. 

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Time/Cash Value Change Extracted Time/Cash Value Change
1 35 193,800
2 46 193,800
3 49 193,800
4 41 200,400 1,377,000
5 42.75 208,600 1,439,900 62,900
6 42.75 213,234 4,634 4,634 74,149 74,149 1,429,349 -10,551
7 42.75 214,921 1,687 6,321 94,821 20,672 1,365,321 -64,028
8 42.75 216,237 1,315 7,637 106,915 12,094 1,292,715 -72,606
9 42.75 217,264 1,027 8,664 112,630 5,715 1,213,730 -78,985
10 42.75 217,562 298 8,962 107,539 -5,091 1,123,939 -89,791
11 42.75 217,597 35 8,997 98,966 -8,573 1,030,666 -93,273
12 42.75 217,782 185 9,182 91,823 -7,143 938,823 -91,843
13 42.75 217,668 -115 9,068 81,609 -10,213 843,909 -94,913
14 42.75 216,094 -1,574 7,494 59,951 -21,659 737,551 -106,359
15 42.75 216,594 501 7,994 55,961 -3,990 648,861 -88,690
16 42.75 216,562 -32 7,962 47,774 -8,187 555,974 -92,887
17 42.75 215,776 -787 7,176 35,878 -11,896 459,378 -96,596
18 42.75 214,818 -957 6,218 24,874 -11,004 363,674 -95,704
19 42.75 213,873 -945 5,273 15,819 -9,055 269,919 -93,755
20 42.75 213,080 -793 4,480 8,961 -6,859 178,361 -91,559
21 42.75 212,393 -687 3,793 3,793 -5,168 88,493 -89,868
22 42.75 211,964 -429 3,364 0 -3,793 0 -88,493

 

Luke Davies-Uniacke is also being exiled to Mooron Mountain. No wait, Pasture! I totally meant Mooron Pasture!  

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Time/Cash Value Change Extracted Time/Cash Value Change
1 25 189,300
2 77 189,300
3 23 189,300
4 37 194,900 1,278,000
5 40.5 205,000 1,378,700 100,700
6 40.5 196,084 -8,916 -8,916 -142,662 -142,662 1,154,938 -223,762
7 40.5 198,392 2,308 -6,608 -99,124 43,539 1,117,376 -37,561
8 40.5 201,008 2,617 -3,992 -55,882 43,242 1,079,518 -37,858
9 40.5 202,991 1,983 -2,009 -26,113 29,769 1,028,187 -51,331
10 40.5 204,023 1,031 -977 -11,730 14,383 961,470 -66,717
11 40.5 204,609 586 -391 -4,305 7,425 887,795 -73,675
12 40.5 205,190 581 190 1,899 6,203 812,899 -74,897
13 40.5 205,381 191 381 3,427 1,528 733,327 -79,572
14 40.5 204,114 -1,267 -886 -7,088 -10,515 641,712 -91,615
15 40.5 204,749 635 -251 -1,760 5,328 565,940 -75,772
16 40.5 204,837 88 -163 -980 780 485,620 -80,320
17 40.5 204,179 -657 -821 -4,103 -3,123 401,397 -84,223
18 40.5 203,337 -842 -1,663 -6,651 -2,548 317,749 -83,648
19 40.5 202,489 -848 -2,511 -7,533 -882 235,767 -81,982
20 40.5 201,773 -716 -3,227 -6,455 1,078 155,745 -80,022
21 40.5 201,147 -626 -3,853 -3,853 2,602 77,247 -78,498
22 40.5 200,759 -388 -4,241 0 3,853 0 -77,247

 

Cameron Rayner was going to be exiled too, but he is doing a Naughton, and improving so much that his price is going up! May end up making good coin if he has really raised his game. If he has the very same scores but in reverse order, he’d be a complete disaster. Hmm, he and Naughton are regressing to the mean! Whoda thunk it.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Time/Cash Value Change Extracted Time/Cash Value Change
1 38 202,800
2 20 202,800
3 63 202,800
4 97 211,900 1,584,000
5 54.5 283,600 2,714,900 1,130,900
6 54.5 305,198 21,598 21,598 345,564 345,564 2,900,764 185,864
7 54.5 318,885 13,687 35,285 529,273 183,709 2,924,773 24,009
8 54.5 308,771 -10,114 25,171 352,390 -176,883 2,588,190 -336,583
9 54.5 301,393 -7,378 17,793 231,303 -121,088 2,307,403 -280,788
10 54.5 295,327 -6,066 11,727 140,719 -90,583 2,057,119 -250,283
11 54.5 290,617 -4,710 7,017 77,185 -63,535 1,833,885 -223,235
12 54.5 287,364 -3,253 3,764 37,637 -39,548 1,634,637 -199,248
13 54.5 284,642 -2,722 1,042 9,374 -28,263 1,446,674 -187,963
14 54.5 280,705 -3,936 -2,895 -23,156 -32,530 1,254,444 -192,230
15 54.5 279,964 -741 -3,636 -25,450 -2,294 1,092,450 -161,994
16 54.5 278,903 -1,061 -4,697 -28,179 -2,729 930,021 -162,429
17 54.5 277,144 -1,759 -6,456 -32,278 -4,099 766,222 -163,799
18 54.5 275,368 -1,776 -8,232 -32,927 -649 605,873 -160,349
19 54.5 273,756 -1,613 -9,844 -29,533 3,394 449,567 -156,306
20 54.5 272,448 -1,308 -11,152 -22,305 7,228 297,095 -152,472
21 54.5 271,354 -1,093 -12,246 -12,246 10,059 147,454 -149,641
22 54.5 270,649 -705 -12,951 0 12,246 0 -147,454

 

Rucks

Tim English is going so well, please please keep your job mate! I hope Bevo decides to make him the lone ruck, and not just because I own Tim and want the cash. He had a tragic game round two in which he looked like Mason Cox did in round one, but then wow! His back-up ruckness may keep him from being sold. Certainly no rush!

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Time/Cash Value Change Extracted Time/Cash Value Change
1 83 134,700
2 33 134,700
3 76 134,700
4 78 184,900 1,098,000
5 67.5 220,100 1,635,400 537,400
6 67.5 261,605 41,505 41,505 664,074 664,074 2,203,274 567,874
7 67.5 289,798 28,193 69,698 1,045,465 381,391 2,488,465 285,191
8 67.5 304,890 15,092 84,790 1,187,055 141,591 2,533,855 45,391
9 67.5 316,101 11,211 96,001 1,248,012 60,957 2,498,612 -35,243
10 67.5 323,686 7,585 103,586 1,243,026 -4,985 2,397,426 -101,185
11 67.5 328,990 5,304 108,890 1,197,788 -45,238 2,255,988 -141,438
12 67.5 333,134 4,144 113,034 1,130,342 -67,446 2,092,342 -163,646
13 67.5 335,797 2,663 115,697 1,041,272 -89,070 1,907,072 -185,270
14 67.5 335,442 -355 115,342 922,733 -118,539 1,692,333 -214,739
15 67.5 337,755 2,313 117,655 823,583 -99,150 1,496,983 -195,350
16 67.5 338,830 1,075 118,730 712,379 -111,204 1,289,579 -207,404
17 67.5 338,422 -407 118,322 591,612 -120,767 1,072,612 -216,967
18 67.5 337,525 -898 117,425 469,699 -121,913 854,499 -218,113
19 67.5 336,482 -1,043 116,382 349,145 -120,554 637,745 -216,754
20 67.5 335,558 -923 115,458 230,917 -118,228 423,317 -214,428
21 67.5 334,713 -845 114,613 114,613 -116,304 210,813 -212,504
22 67.5 334,210 -503 114,110 0 -114,613 0 -210,813

Forwards

Jake Waterman: Blah blah, slowly rising blah.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Time/Cash Value Change Extracted Time/Cash Value Change
1 51 123,900
2 78 123,900
3 72 123,900
4 61 181,000 1,027,800
5 65.5 228,100 1,771,400 743,600
6 65.5 257,152 29,052 29,052 464,824 464,824 2,132,024 360,624
7 65.5 277,013 19,861 48,913 733,692 268,868 2,296,692 164,668
8 65.5 292,760 15,748 64,660 905,245 171,553 2,364,045 67,353
9 65.5 304,452 11,692 76,352 992,574 87,330 2,347,174 -16,870
10 65.5 312,415 7,963 84,315 1,011,774 19,200 2,262,174 -85,000
11 65.5 318,006 5,592 89,906 988,970 -22,804 2,135,170 -127,004
12 65.5 322,354 4,348 94,254 942,543 -46,427 1,984,543 -150,627
13 65.5 325,179 2,825 97,079 873,711 -68,832 1,811,511 -173,032
14 65.5 325,015 -164 96,915 775,318 -98,393 1,608,918 -202,593
15 65.5 327,388 2,373 99,288 695,018 -80,300 1,424,418 -184,500
16 65.5 328,527 1,139 100,427 602,561 -92,457 1,227,761 -196,657
17 65.5 328,202 -325 100,102 500,511 -102,050 1,021,511 -206,250
18 65.5 327,383 -819 99,283 397,133 -103,379 813,933 -207,579
19 65.5 326,409 -974 98,309 294,927 -102,205 607,527 -206,405
20 65.5 325,541 -868 97,441 194,882 -100,045 403,282 -204,245
21 65.5 324,741 -800 96,641 96,641 -98,241 200,841 -202,441
22 65.5 324,268 -473 96,168 0 -96,641 0 -200,841

Bayley Fritsch is amazingly consistent.  At this rate he has more weeks than I expected of slow value increasing.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Time/Cash Value Change Extracted Time/Cash Value Change
1 60 117,300
2 60 117,300
3 56 117,300
4 58 164,900 738,000
5 58.5 199,600 1,286,900 548,900
6 58.5 224,483 24,883 24,883 398,125 398,125 1,609,325 322,425
7 58.5 245,161 20,679 45,561 683,422 285,296 1,818,922 209,596
8 58.5 259,816 14,655 60,216 843,027 159,605 1,902,827 83,905
9 58.5 270,693 10,877 71,093 924,210 81,183 1,908,310 5,483
10 58.5 278,127 7,434 78,527 942,329 18,119 1,850,729 -57,581
11 58.5 283,360 5,232 83,760 921,356 -20,973 1,754,056 -96,673
12 58.5 287,418 4,058 87,818 878,175 -43,181 1,635,175 -118,881
13 58.5 290,069 2,652 90,469 814,224 -63,952 1,495,524 -139,652
14 58.5 290,019 -50 90,419 723,353 -90,870 1,328,953 -166,570
15 58.5 292,208 2,189 92,608 648,256 -75,097 1,178,156 -150,797
16 58.5 293,276 1,068 93,676 562,056 -86,200 1,016,256 -161,900
17 58.5 293,024 -252 93,424 467,120 -94,936 845,620 -170,636
18 58.5 292,320 -704 92,720 370,881 -96,239 673,681 -171,939
19 58.5 291,471 -850 91,871 275,612 -95,269 502,712 -170,969
20 58.5 290,710 -760 91,110 182,221 -93,391 333,621 -169,091
21 58.5 290,007 -704 90,407 90,407 -91,814 166,107 -167,514
22 58.5 289,592 -415 89,992 0 -90,407 0 -166,107

Jarrod Garlett either puts up a big score in the next week or two, or is just a less consistent Bayley Fritsch.  Dang, wow, they started at the same price and have an average only 0.5 diferent! Yet I feel like they are different players because Garlett got his average from three decent scores and one crap one, while Fritsch is 56-60 each week.  Average does not tell the whole story for sure. Garlett’s up and down scoring makes him a better cow. I think I wrote about that 3 or 4 years ago. At the time is was a revelation….which has led to numbers of the beasts, or at least numbers of the Cows.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Time/Cash Value Change Extracted Time/Cash Value Change
1 61 117,300
2 36 117,300
3 64 117,300
4 71 158,200 617,400
5 58 193,300 1,179,800 562,400
6 58 229,063 35,763 35,763 572,211 572,211 1,682,611 502,811
7 58 253,973 24,910 60,673 910,097 337,886 1,951,097 268,486
8 58 265,638 11,665 72,338 1,012,729 102,633 1,984,329 33,233
9 58 274,311 8,673 81,011 1,053,142 40,413 1,955,342 -28,987
10 58 280,116 5,805 86,816 1,041,788 -11,354 1,874,588 -80,754
11 58 284,148 4,032 90,848 999,327 -42,461 1,762,727 -111,861
12 58 287,323 3,175 94,023 940,233 -59,094 1,634,233 -128,494
13 58 289,327 2,003 96,027 864,239 -75,995 1,488,839 -145,395
14 58 288,808 -518 95,508 764,064 -100,174 1,319,264 -169,574
15 58 290,643 1,835 97,343 681,402 -82,663 1,167,202 -152,063
16 58 291,454 811 98,154 588,925 -92,477 1,005,325 -161,877
17 58 291,020 -434 97,720 488,602 -100,322 835,602 -169,722
18 58 290,188 -833 96,888 387,551 -101,052 665,151 -170,452
19 58 289,246 -941 95,946 287,839 -99,712 496,039 -169,112
20 58 288,420 -826 95,120 190,241 -97,599 329,041 -166,999
21 58 287,670 -750 94,370 94,370 -95,871 163,770 -165,271
22 58 287,220 -449 93,920 0 -94,370 0 -163,770

Daniel Lloyd is at least doing well enough to avoid the mooron label, and like so many others is one ton away from good cash.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Time/Cash Value Change Extracted Time/Cash Value Change
1 61 214,200
2 54 214,200
3 95 214,200
4 69 251,300 2,293,200
5 69.75 283,000 2,704,700 411,500
6 69.75 313,412 30,412 30,412 486,587 486,587 3,032,187 327,487
7 69.75 326,091 12,680 43,091 646,371 159,785 3,032,871 685
8 69.75 334,691 8,600 51,691 723,673 77,302 2,951,073 -81,798
9 69.75 341,122 6,431 58,122 755,581 31,908 2,823,881 -127,192
10 69.75 345,135 4,013 62,135 745,620 -9,961 2,654,820 -169,061
11 69.75 347,795 2,660 64,795 712,746 -32,874 2,462,846 -191,974
12 69.75 350,007 2,212 67,007 670,074 -42,673 2,261,074 -201,773
13 69.75 351,230 1,223 68,230 614,074 -56,000 2,045,974 -215,100
14 69.75 349,719 -1,512 66,719 533,748 -80,325 1,806,548 -239,425
15 69.75 351,290 1,572 68,290 478,032 -55,716 1,591,732 -214,816
16 69.75 351,796 506 68,796 412,777 -65,255 1,367,377 -224,355
17 69.75 350,927 -870 67,927 339,633 -73,144 1,135,133 -232,244
18 69.75 349,669 -1,257 66,669 266,676 -72,956 903,076 -232,056
19 69.75 348,350 -1,320 65,350 196,049 -70,628 673,349 -229,728
20 69.75 347,219 -1,130 64,219 128,438 -67,611 446,638 -226,711
21 69.75 346,217 -1,002 63,217 63,217 -65,222 222,317 -224,322
22 69.75 345,603 -613 62,603 0 -63,217 0 -222,317

Billy Gowers only cost $117,400 which means he is a slow money maker rather than a mooron. If he cost $50k more he would be exiled to the Pasture.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Time/Cash Value Change Extracted Time/Cash Value Change
1 49 117,400
2 57 117,400
3 43 117,400
4 48 152,900 522,000
5 49.25 179,100 938,400 416,400
6 49.25 194,892 15,792 15,792 252,680 252,680 1,135,880 197,480
7 49.25 210,390 15,498 31,290 469,355 216,676 1,297,355 161,476
8 49.25 221,679 11,289 42,579 596,105 126,750 1,368,905 71,550
9 49.25 230,063 8,384 50,963 662,520 66,415 1,380,120 11,215
10 49.25 235,748 5,685 56,648 679,782 17,261 1,342,182 -37,939
11 49.25 239,730 3,982 60,630 666,934 -12,848 1,274,134 -68,048
12 49.25 242,836 3,106 63,736 637,362 -29,572 1,189,362 -84,772
13 49.25 244,839 2,003 65,739 591,655 -45,707 1,088,455 -100,907
14 49.25 244,626 -214 65,526 524,205 -67,450 965,805 -122,650
15 49.25 246,346 1,720 67,246 470,720 -53,485 857,120 -108,685
16 49.25 247,154 808 68,054 408,324 -62,395 739,524 -117,595
17 49.25 246,875 -279 67,775 338,873 -69,451 614,873 -124,651
18 49.25 246,233 -642 67,133 268,531 -70,342 489,331 -125,542
19 49.25 245,481 -751 66,381 199,143 -69,387 364,743 -124,587
20 49.25 244,815 -667 65,715 131,429 -67,714 241,829 -122,914
21 49.25 244,203 -612 65,103 65,103 -66,326 120,303 -121,526
22 49.25 243,840 -363 64,740 0 -65,103 0 -120,303

Willi Rioli has two working legs, making him the best of the Eagles forward rookies. Not Venable, darn it.

Special Guests

Riley Bonner is here because I own him, ran his numbers, and it felt wrong to not share. As it turns out, his ETCV went down last week, which is a serious bad thing! On the other hand, one good match, yadda yadda yadda. I still feel he is an 80-ish average player and want his points more than cash from him, which is why he really isn’t a cow. I’m beginning to this anyone who costs more than $135k is a bad option for cash making. You might do ok, but Mooron Pasture is looking pretty full at the moment; each occupant a living symbol of disappointment for the owners. 

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Time/Cash Value Change Extracted Time/Cash Value Change
1 119 257,300
2 76 257,300
3 68 257,300
4 60 306,700 3,290,400
5 80.75 317,500 3,291,200 800
6 80.75 327,739 10,239 10,239 163,820 163,820 3,261,420 -29,780
7 80.75 342,566 14,827 25,066 375,986 212,166 3,279,986 18,566
8 80.75 361,702 19,136 44,202 618,827 242,841 3,329,227 49,241
9 80.75 375,911 14,209 58,411 759,341 140,514 3,276,141 -53,086
10 80.75 385,576 9,665 68,076 816,907 57,566 3,140,107 -136,034
11 80.75 392,357 6,782 74,857 823,430 6,523 2,953,030 -187,077
12 80.75 397,635 5,278 80,135 801,353 -22,077 2,737,353 -215,677
13 80.75 401,057 3,422 83,557 752,013 -49,340 2,494,413 -242,940
14 80.75 400,809 -248 83,309 666,472 -85,540 2,215,272 -279,140
15 80.75 403,703 2,894 86,203 603,418 -63,054 1,958,618 -256,654
16 80.75 405,082 1,380 87,582 525,494 -77,924 1,687,094 -271,524
17 80.75 404,664 -418 87,164 435,822 -89,672 1,403,822 -283,272
18 80.75 403,641 -1,023 86,141 344,566 -91,256 1,118,966 -284,856
19 80.75 402,431 -1,210 84,931 254,793 -89,773 835,593 -283,373
20 80.75 401,354 -1,077 83,854 167,708 -87,085 554,908 -280,685
21 80.75 400,362 -991 82,862 82,862 -84,845 276,462 -278,445
22 80.75 399,776 -587 82,276 0 -82,862 0 -276,462

 

Zac Fisher is…a lot like Bonner. Same reasons to own and hold, same recent poor score issue. More likely to be worth holding long term. But really, I’m just blathering about both of them and have no edge on anyone as far as what to do with them. Numbers in case they help someone. Ignore the man behind the curtain of the confessional.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Time/Cash Value Change Extracted Time/Cash Value Change
1 93 263,600
2 110 263,600
3 76 263,600
4 45 318,400 3,501,000
5 81 338,200 3,643,100 142,100
6 81 339,767 1,567 1,567 25,069 25,069 3,453,869 -189,231
7 81 344,911 5,145 6,711 100,671 75,601 3,315,171 -138,699
8 81 363,769 18,858 25,569 357,970 257,299 3,358,170 42,999
9 81 377,773 14,004 39,573 514,455 156,486 3,300,355 -57,814
10 81 387,284 9,510 49,084 589,004 74,548 3,160,604 -139,752
11 81 393,950 6,667 55,750 613,253 24,249 2,970,553 -190,051
12 81 399,145 5,194 60,945 609,447 -3,806 2,752,447 -218,106
13 81 402,503 3,359 64,303 578,729 -30,718 2,507,429 -245,018
14 81 402,199 -304 63,999 511,994 -66,735 2,226,394 -281,035
15 81 405,062 2,863 66,862 468,036 -43,958 1,968,136 -258,258
16 81 406,417 1,355 68,217 409,303 -58,734 1,695,103 -273,034
17 81 405,976 -441 67,776 338,881 -70,422 1,410,381 -284,722
18 81 404,934 -1,042 66,734 266,937 -71,944 1,124,137 -286,244
19 81 403,708 -1,226 65,508 196,525 -70,412 839,425 -284,712
20 81 402,619 -1,089 64,419 128,839 -67,686 557,439 -281,986
21 81 401,619 -1,001 63,419 63,419 -65,420 277,719 -279,720
22 81 401,025 -593 62,825 0 -63,419 0 -277,719

 

Final thoughts

Next week Cow Talk will be a day late, since the round won’t be over until after the normal Cow Talk time! The quick turnaround may result in a lot of short write ups.

Now that I’m sorta kinda making predictions, remember the Craggy Island guarantee – all predictions wrong or double your money back!

This is a free site!

Oh, well then *triple* your money back!

Thanks for reading.

49
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26 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 4”

  1. Great Sermon F D.

    I’m thinking of culling Bonner early.

    Hear me out..

    I have a little cash in the bank so…

    With Finlayson, Murray and Doedee and all capable of 80+ average. Do I need Bonner?

    Bonner BE58 will take 2/3 weeks to make 50K
    Coffield BE-45 will make that this week.

    Then I can turn one of those scrawny runt cows into Coniglio at M6.

    I prefer to upgrade my spud cows.I know it makes no difference but it always feels better than sideways trading them for minimal cash.

    I’m hoping Mirra holds his spot. I have a plan to open my D/M dpp
    after next week.

    Thanks again F D.

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  2. zerret predicted to drop to 465k this week with a be of 130. is this drop based on his average to score 70 this week, or is it based on something different?
    i need him to drop tho 463k for my trades to work.
    cole (wce) non playing to mirra.
    brayshaw to zerret. will need 2-3 weeks for him to drop

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    1. Prediction is based on Merrett scoring 67. But if he scores 100 he will only drop by about 14k to around the 480k mark.

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    2. Merrett has a score of 57 coming out of his 3 round average. He should not lose a heap of cash. A score of 90 = loss $18,000, 100 = loss $13,000 and 120 = loss $4,000 approximately as a guide.

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      1. Correction with regard to 53 coming out of his 3 round average, this will be the following week. Price estimates are correct for this round.

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  3. Excellent work as always FD. I like how most of the best rookies seem to max out around the bye rounds – very handy.
    I agree that it’s time to send Brayshaw to Mooron Pasture!

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  4. Excellent work.
    With regards to mid pricers they are generally picked because you think they can get within close range of the premiums thus generating early points and a small nest egg as stepping stone to a fallen premium. They are generally a big gamble with a very low percentage success rate with the majority punching above their weight early bottoming out in the first 3 increases.

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  5. Brilliant Father. Particularly enjoyed …
    If he had the very same scores but in reverse order, he’d be a complete disaster. Hmm, he and Naughton are regressing to the mean! Whoda thunk it.

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    1. Dropped Brayshaw for Crowden last week, pocketed $100k and Crowden ended up with more points and shot up $40k…

      I thought Brayshaw would be ready to go, but has been outperformed by Banfield and Crowden. Goes to show how important State League experience is, versing bigger bodies helps translate to AFL quicker.

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  6. “Garlett’s up and down scoring makes him a better cow. I think I wrote about that 3 or 4 years ago. ”

    Is there any chance you could dig that post up at some point? I would be very curious to read about this.

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