Cow Talk – Round Eleven

Written by Father Dougal on May 30 2018

Small or Far Away” Father Dougal on Cows

My brain is demanding a week off, and negotiations went badly for me; lacking a brain on my side. We’ve bargained down to nothing all think-y before the player write ups in Cow Talk, and no planning beyond this week until next week because I already know what I need to do trade wise this week so no point. I can’t argue, because no brain. There are a lot of cow decisions to be made, but what they are is getting more and more individual since team situation over the byes had to drive things now, and that will differ a lot.

I’d write something about how it is probably better to focus on not stuffing up than trying to be clever, but not allowed to because of the brain deal. Except I just did! Ha, I out thought my own brain! Wait, is that a good thing or a bad thing…..?


Sam Murray: Was unexpectedly out and forced a lot of trades last week.


Jeremy Finlayson Was unexpectedly out and forced a lot of trades last week. Teamwork with Murray of a sort.


Tom Doedee He has a good chance of holding his value up to his bye on R14. My, yes a 104 should push him past $400,000 when he gets to his bye. The only Musketeer that was even on the pitch last week.

Aaron Naughton Trade before he plays again.


Ed Richards He should be ok up to his bye… I was wrong, he was more than ok, and with a 102 in his cycle he will probably go up in price the weeks before and after his bye. Use him as you need to.

Lachlan Murphy Showed unexpected solidarity with Murray and Finlayson and was also out last week. His in and out-ed ness is a real pain. Can’t count on him for a score or as a loophole.


David Mirra: Backed up his 89 with an 81. He will make money well past his bye, and if I owned him I would be planning to hold through and past it. Your needs will vary of course.


Tim Kelly Trade now or hold to R14. Don’t be wishy washy. I was way wrong, wish and or wash away! He only attended five center bounces and was forward a lot, so if his role has changed all bets are off. I have no idea what will happen with him now. Really threw a spanner in the works with his sudden and big drop in scoring.

Nick Holman With a 122 in his three round average you would be mad not to hold him at least to R14! And since he did not play last week, cause bye, that holds. Gonna go up in price and will be worth having on the pitch over the byes. If you want to trade him out on R14 that could make sense if you have enough other people playing that round.

Lachlan Fogarty had another week off.


Bailey Banfield  will probably (probably) hover around his current price. He hovered again, a bit up. We know what to expect from him.

Jaidyn Stephenson  Do ya feel double or nothing lucky? I hope you didn’t ’cause he went right back down. Having gone down he may go back up some. These guys who could do anything any week really you just have to use when you need to use them and risk what you need to or have to. 

Andrew Brayshaw He will probably keep hovering. And hover he did, a bit up with a monster score of 72. A monster by his standards at least.

Paddy Dow: Scored a 72 and could make it to the byes without a price drop.

Cameron Rayner What was I thinking wasting part of my life writing about this bloke? He is worth $34,100 more than when he started after ten weeks. He’s dropped.


Oscar McInerny: Well, he beats crickets. Chugging along being a backup ruck. Probably has some more growth in him. No evidence he will make much more money, but being a ruck-like object he could surprise with a big score.


Jake Waterman is likely to lose cash now with his 94 out of his system. Great option to trade out this week if you are looking for one.

Bayley Fritsch is really doing well in his new role. The Demons have gone totally bonkers the last few weeks, which has to be helping him as well. The below chart still has his full season average, which is lower than his average since his role change. Looks likely to rise in price up to his bye

Daniel Lloyd Heh, looks like the blade got stuck halfway down, but if he does badly this week it might just get unstuck. Well, the blade is still stuck, but seems to be getting lose…..

Billy Gowers only managed a 45 and is pretty likely to start losing money. He started losing money. He looks likely to lose more.

Jack Henry: Standard disclaimer about another lucky ton Or a lucky near ton, that 99 will keep his value going up until the week before his bye, and who knows what he’ll do over that time!

Esava Ratugolea: Well darn. Trade before he plays again, which won’t be soon.


Ben Ronke He has a lot of money to make and has a good chance of going up in price right up to his R14 bye. What I said last week still goes this week.

Charlie Spargo is going up slowly just like we would have expected. Should go up until his bye

Matt Guelfi is a lot like Spargo: going up slowly just like we would have expected. Should go up until his bye

Jack Higgins is added as requested. Seems safe enough until his bye.


Other-Cow Stuff

There is this Tim Smith guy who plays forward for the Demons. All the cool kids are getting him, and the uncool kids are copying the cool kids and getting him. He may be one of those guys that you want to get because not having him risks everyone else moving past you by one Tim Smith. Hard to know exactly what one Tim Smith is, but we will find out and given his start…..

Non-Cow Stuff

Speaking of people as units of measurement, I give you the Smoot – which is still in active use!


Final thoughts

Feel free to ask questions in the comments; you never know what might happen.

Please let me know if I forgot someone. I usually wait for 5 weeks data but can make exceptions. 

Now that I’m sorta kinda making predictions, remember the Craggy Island guarantee – all predictions wrong or triple your money back!

Thanks for reading.


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13 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round Eleven”

  1. Thanks FD.

    Entertaining as always.

    Do you have any numbers for Jack (Snags) Higgins?

    He seems to have a BE close to his ave.

    I kinder want to keep him until his Bye R14. I just don’t want him to bleed too much cash before then.

    I always seem to keep the DPP rookies longer than I need too.

    Maybe I’m suffering some kind of DPP bias?

    Thanks again.


    1. He’s only priced at $280k, so he definitely won’t ‘bleed’ cash. He’s made $150k profit, so it wouldn’t be disastrous to trade him out now, but I think the DPP would be beneficial until R14.


  2. Great stuff as always FD!

    If Hurley plays this week or next and gets through unscathed and lowers in price, Doedee to Hurley could be a great premo upgrade after the round 13 bye for pretty minimal cash.

    Other than that it’s the Smith and Rice double downgrade for me this week!


  3. Excellent FD. I’m by no means cool, but even a tired brain knows a good thing when it sees one. And Timothy Smith appears to be the goodest of good things.


  4. I do think Guelfi is a lot better than Spargo however. He’s maintaining his scores better and should be good til his bye at least. Spargo might be cooked next week. I kinda hope he is to force the trade I’d like!


    1. If I had any faith in Essendon’s form then I’d agree with you. As it stands though Melbourne are likely to keep winning which will allow Spargo score more as a result.


  5. I traded Doedee too early, Kelly too late, and missed the boat on Ronke and Mirra.

    I am NOT missing out on Timothy Smith!


  6. Love your work, but made a blunder on Jaidyn Stephenson :):)
    Naughton and kelly out for me this week going to Rice and Smith



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