Cow Talk – Round Nine

Written by Father Dougal on May 16 2018

“Small or Far Away” Father Dougal on Cows

We have a very Cow Talk question this week – Is it worth bringing in Ronke Kong this week if you don’t already have him?

As opposed to bringing him in if you do already have him?

Ur, right. Anyways, math can give us an idea of what might happen if you do. Let’s look at a “worst case” type average of 66, his low score so far.

Looks like a quick $93,000 and 122 points over two rounds. That’s not the worst worst case ever.

We often say that you want to make $150,000 from a cow, so what would it take for him to make $150,000 in a reasonable amount of time?

Looks like an average of 79.1 does it by his bye.  An 82.3 average does it a round sooner.

Then the question is, is it worth it given your team situation? How many trades, who else you have, and all that stuff. You know what doesn’t matter? Last week. As far as this decision goes, the only thing that matters is if the best thing for your team is bringing him in or not. He’s exactly the same as a two gamer with a starting price of $214,700 and scores of 66 and 120. Well, slightly better in that you have the data of his round one 92. What other people have done just doesn’t matter; only what gets you the most points at the end of the season. Emotionally, it is rather crazy-making to be getting less than others, but logic-wise it does not matter.

While I’m at it, I didn’t write a pre-season sermon this year about how PODs (Points of Difference) are a bad concept that leads people astray. Did one the year before and the year before that, so gave it a rest in favor of other things. But, since we’re here, I think PODs are a misleading concept that lead people astray. If someone said to you:

“I’m going to bring in the second best player available because a lot of other people are bringing in the best player available”

Would you says “makes sense” or “that might be a bad plan”?  I’m going with bad plan. Of course, often to get a POD people end up with the fourth best player, if that. Not really an improvement.

There is one way to get that much sought after POD, who you have and scores well and few other people have – pick whoever you think are the very best players, and hope that lots of other managers don’t think they are the  very best players, and then happen to be right on one or more of them that other people didn’t pick. No way to force it; if you get one you do. Luck works too of course, you might pick a guy for reasons other than you expect them to do well and then they surprise you – rather like how I got Ronke, actually. There were no defense downgrade options that let me make the moves I wanted to, so I got him in for English because I wanted to avoid a donut in the forward line. Made a move I was forced to. No skill at all, needed a forward, got the forward on the bubble with the best break even who was named, and Mr. Jackpot paid a visit. Luck is a big part of success in Supercoach, so don’t go sub-optimally on the skill part that you *can* control.

Defenders

Sam Murray: It appears that the Four Musketeers have had one of those mid-story setbacks, which often, um, happen mid-story. Now Murray is the only one of the four who looks likely to keep going up in price! This illustrates why I hate making predictions; things change fast and unexpectedly. Having data and a place to start is useful, but wow, stuff can reverse quickly!

Jeremy Finlayson asks – do you believe in me? If I can go back to an average around 80 you can hold me tight, but if you fear I am just a 60-70 kind of guy, then you must let me go. (He says.)

Tom Doedee asks the same question as Finlayson. I suppose if we let them both go they can get a room or something.

Aaron Naughton lived up to his name. Darn. Trade before he plays again. Last to join the Musketeers; first to leave.

 

Ed Richards finally put up another score that gives his owners hope of cash. If he can do another next week he may end up decent by his bye.

Midfielders

Tim Kelly is so good and steady that I have little new to say about him. I repeat that it will be really hard to make trading him work for you for a while. I won’t say it can’t be done, every team is different, but there almost has to be someone in another line you can make more points/week by upgrading before him.

Nick Holman went down, could go right back up.  I feel like you just have to see what he does every week, and decide how much you need cash now vs maybe more cash later. I’m turning into a real cash now type, but keep having others who should go before Nick. I am seriously wondering if he might be worth keeping through the byes as another warm body. Of course I am way tight R12, and others may not be. Every team different……

Lachlan Fogarty had the week off.

 

Bailey Banfield looks like someone who wants to be turned into steaks. He could easily miss his BE. He did miss he BE, and could again. He can go anytime, and will probably (probably) hover around his current price.

Jaidyn Stephenson dodged the curse, and with an 84 will go up a bit more if he can keep his average up. He did not keep his average up. He could score anything. For him, I dust off my trusty comment for players of his ilk, “Do ya feel lucky?”  He could do anything.

Andrew Brayshaw looks to have hit his price and seems likely to hover around it for a while. I suspect he will be turned into Phillips by a big huge pile of managers next week. (And some this week.)

Paddy Dow: His scores are trending up. Of course they couldn’t go down or stay the same because if they hadn’t gone up he’d have lost his spot! Maths, or something.  Seems good for next week, and after that depends on a lot on his next score.

Cameron Rayner seems to have peaked. He peaked. Seems headed down. Might do another good score…might. Appears to be a good trade out option.

Rucks

(sound of crickets)

Forwards

Jake Waterman Put up a great 94 which gives hope of rises to his bye, if he can put up tolerable scores. If. Cursed him, sorry. That’s a lie; I’m not sorry, I don’t own him. I’m probably a bad person…..

Bayley Fritsch has had a role change and it sure seems to suit him! It’s like he is a different player over the last three weeks then he was the first four. In a way he really is. His projections might well be too low now. I have hopes of holding him and playing him productively on field up to his bye….dammit, cursed him! I own him too. That’s what I get for being a bad person.

Daniel Lloyd either scores big and gets a stay of execution, or gets the chop next week.

Billy Gowers either scores big and gets a stay of execution, or gets the chop next week. Notice the recycled comment? Recycling is good for the environment, yeah, that’s it, not me being lazy. Well, more that it applies to Gowers as well. This sort of happens to cows with up and down scores. At some point they hit an up without much expectation of more up, and the risk of down means sell right that week. See, look at all that extra added text stuff, not lazy hardly much at all!

Jack Henry He remains a great example of how one well over average score can push a player to his season high price. Even better chance he will never be worth more significantly than whatever he is priced at after round 9. – assuming he keeps his job!  I’d kinda want to give him one more week on the pitch just in case he goes big again, but unless he does he should be out after the next week in which he plays.

Esava Ratugolea:   Sorry I forgot to write him up in the past. He’s kinda boring as far as being a cow goes, although he has been fun to watch play! He seems like a classic slow riser, and hopefully for his owner will stay one. Unless he rises fast, nothing wrong with that happening. Seems like he will peak about $300,000 and hover.

Non-Cow Stuff

….I think I did that up top, with my POD rant like thing. Oh, I want to be sure and give credit to Natopotato88 who several weeks back said “Pods are for the end of the season.” in a comment somewhere. I have tried for something like three years to find a quick way to express that concept, so am very happy he did so I can use it now. It is not that POD are never relevant, just that they are only relevant in a very few circumstances at the end of the season. Since my brain is now fried, I’m going to just hope someone else explains in the comments so I don’t have to! So much for my not being lazy.

Final thoughts

Feel free to ask questions in the comments; you never know what might happen. Please let me know if I forgot someone. I usually wait for 5 weeks data but can make exceptions.

Now that I’m sorta kinda making predictions, remember the Craggy Island guarantee – all predictions wrong or triple your money back!

Thanks for reading.

 

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30 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round Nine”

  1. Dear Father,

    Are you really 4th overall?? If so, well done and all the best for taking out the 50k!!

    Regards, Daisy

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  2. Awesome as usual, but there is one number you forgot to include. I know you’re the modest type, so I calculated it for you:

    All Priests: top 0.002%

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  3. Thanks Father, it all makes sense.
    Congrats on 4 th position, long way to go but you’re at the pointy end.

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  4. Great stuff on the 4th position Father, definitely hoping you can take out the $50k!

    Noticed in the trade talk thread that you were considering Webster this week.

    I’m also considering him and my current backline premo set-up is Laird, Sicily and Yeo. Simpson seems the obvious choice but was thinking maybe holding off until after his bye for him and go with Webster as he works my bye structure better.

    Note that you said PODs are better off later in the year so I suggest you would recommend getting in Simpson and leaving Webster for later if he continues his form.

    Cheers

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    1. Thank you!

      Dang, I wasn’t clear. I meant that taking a player’s ownership into account wasn’t a good idea until the end of the year, not the bringing in low ownership players should wait until the end of the year.

      For those two, I would first look at who fits your byes best, then if that is even take Simpson because he has a much longer track record of good averages. I’d want Laird, Simpson, Yeo, and Sicily before taking punts on anyone else.

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  5. Thanks for another great sermon FD.

    Congrats again on your heavenly ranking.

    Our Father who art in SC heaven.

    Dougal be thy name.

    Amen. 🙂

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  6. Naught -on and Doedee will be culled this week. Finlayson will stay in the hope scoring will increase but also bc his dpp brings much needed flexibility atm.

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    1. Thanks very much for pointing that out, I appreciate it. Looks like Mason Cox might end up playing for me this week.

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  7. So would going Billings to Ronke this week be worth it? This is my current plan but not sure if i would be better off just going a week early on phillips then ainsworth next week or go Ronke?

    THIS WEEK (RD 9)
    Naughton to Keefe/Cumming
    Billings to ronke

    NEXT WEEK (RD 10)
    Holman to Dusty
    Henry to Phillips (via spargo)

    WEEK AFTER (RD 11)
    Doedee to Simpson
    Fritsch to Walters

    Advice welcomed. Thanks (and congrats on the ranking F.D!)

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    1. Well, it seems like it helps you get in cheap Dusty, so really I think it could work if you are up for risking Ronke’s worst case.

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  8. Interesting to see this got the copy/paste job in one of the forums over at JR. I guess informative, well written content counts for something after all…

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      1. Jock Reynolds, another SC / fantasy site. I used to go there semi-regularly last year but two things happened, (a) I found this site, and (b) there seemed to be more flogs / idiot comments than there had been previously.

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  9. Just with the PODs talk want to chip in that there’s two ways of looking at who the “best” player and hence second best etc is each week. There is best performing and there is best value.

    I can understand people who pick a POD on the basis of best value as it should let them improve the rest of their side.

    Also good job on 4th place and another great sermon, keep it up!

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    1. Thank you!

      By POD I was only talking about ownership %. Totally agree there are a variety of ways to evaluate “best”.

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  10. Finally got a read through this article and then I casually got to the bottom and I saw my name and I panicked as I thought FD was going to tear me apart in some way because I showed him what not to do or something like that.
    But thanks for that FD and all the best with your team, hope you can push even higher in those rankings

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    1. Thank you!

      I’d be very reluctant to mention anyone in a bad way; not really fun for anyone. I see a lot of good advice being shared by a lot of people here and I like being able to give credit where it is due. You definitely deserve credit for that bit of wisdom.

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