Cow Talk – Round Ten

Written by Father Dougal on May 23 2018

“Small or Far Away” Father Dougal on Cows

 

It looks like the Musketeers are really struggling. But, is it their fault? Maybe they have forces working against them! Four loyal defenders of the goal, vs….attackers of the goal? There are a lot of very good young attackers right now. And they all wear red! Fritcsh, Ronke, Guilfi, and Spargo united in wearing red to oppose the musketeers – the Cardinal’s Guards! Clearly the work of Richelieu! Four attackers in Red battling for our affections and pitch time with the Musketeers! What does this mean? Nothing! If Chewbacca is from Paris you must make him pope! Something like that…..

Defenders

Sam Murray: Things change so fast, like now Murray is not looking to keep going up in price. With so many Pies out, who does he have to kick to? I doubt he will start going below 60 much if at all, and he could certainly have a good game and fix his cash making right up. Oh, and he plays the Dogs next! Followed by the Dockers at home! So hope. Like all the Musketeers, he looks better to upgrade then downgrade if you can manage that. No I’m wrong, Naughton is more of a downgrade.

Jeremy Finlayson let down anyone who believed in him. All of GWS seems to be struggling though. Coniglio has had the same form slump Finlayson has. I’m inclined to think that the drop off from so many GWS players is from the team form drop. Without someone to kick to, your kicking points go down. For their premiums you can hold and hope that Greene and Kelly and Lids come back and things get back to where they were at the beginning of the season. Finlayson is a lot harder to hold. If you really want him on the pitch over the byes then hold him. He does play the Suns R12 and the Lions R14. His R13 bye is nice. I would be inclined to get value from him while you can, most likely an upgrade to a defensive premium if you can find the cash. So few defensive downgrades limit options.

Tom Doedee repaid the faith of anyone who believed in him with a nice 91. He has a good chance of holding his value up to his bye on R14. There would be nothing wrong with upgrading him sooner if needed but no rush at least as of this week. Could change anytime…..

Aaron Naughton Trade before he plays again.

Ed Richards has the correct average this week in only one try! He should be ok up to his bye, although no real issue if you want to use cash from him before then.

Lachlan Murphy does not have the normal 5 games to be included, but at this point I think seeing his numbers is valuable so I ran them and included him anyways. The biggest worry with him is his job security, but he is very likely to go up in value any times he plays, up to his bye. Would be great if he could make it long enough for a defensive downgrade to become available.

David Mirra: Added by request. Should have thought of him with the other 4 gamers. He’s doing well and if he keeps it up and keeps getting selected he will make some good cash.

Midfielders

Tim Kelly is so good and steady that I have little new to say about him. I forgot to say “Cursed him” after that, so of course I actually cursed him. Argh. If you can make good use of him now and don’t need his points on the pitch there is nothing wrong with trading him now. If, like me, you can make more of an improvement elsewhere, then holding him to his bye should end up ok. (Should.) What I would NOT do is hold him a few weeks while his price goes down and then trade him. That would be a bad plan. Trade now or hold to R14. Don’t be wishy washy.

Nick Holman went down, could go right back up….I am seriously wondering if he might be worth keeping through the byes as another warm body. He went right back up and then some! With a 122 in his three round average you would be mad not to hold him at least to R14!

Lachlan Fogarty had another week off.

Bailey Banfield  will probably (probably) hover around his current price. He hovered. Sort of like a bee. He and Brayshaw, had they done well, could have ended up with a cool name like “The Killer Bees” but instead they are just the “Big Busts” (Not like that.) Banfield is much less of a bust; but hard to be excited about a bloke with a 56 average. If nothing else he is reliable.

Jaidyn Stephenson For him, I dust off my trusty comment for players of his ilk, “Do ya feel lucky?” Did ya feel lucky? If you held him you got another 84! Wow, cool. Do ya feel double or nothing lucky? If he goes for another 49 his price drops right back down, while another 84 pumps it up another $6,000 ish…..more 150% or nothing….well, up to you Mr. Lucky. Unless you’re a doctor, in which case Dr. Lucky, in which case there is this game you should know about……

Andrew Brayshaw looks to have hit his price and seems likely to hover around it for a while. He also hovered. He will probably keep hovering. (Probably.) He’s a much bigger bust than Banfield, not like that, since he started out so much more expensive. At this point that really doesn’t matter though. Both the Big Busts are great candidates for being traded out.

Paddy Dow: Seems good for next week, and after that depends on a lot on his next score. His next score was a bust….ok fine, “not like that.” If we had better cows that joke wouldn’t keep coming up….dammit, not saying it again. Anyways, he ought to be Paddy Bow so he could join the club. Doesn’t even look like he will make it to his bye without leaking money.

Cameron Rayner Seems headed down. He went down, and I’m realizing how hard it is to stop seeing the naughty in everything once you start. All I’d need to be Beavis is a Butthead, or possibly the other way around. Speaking of buttheads, Cam Rayner appears to be heading down in price again, making him, in Supercoach terms only of course, something of a butthead.

Rucks

(sound of crickets)

Forwards

Jake Waterman Cursed him… I’m probably a bad person…..yeah, a 52 so cursed. Up and down like a Yo yo. Too bad that name is taken. I’m thinking that Yeo going up and down may just be confirmation bias. Get a name like that we notice every up and down. When I have time I should compare him to some other popular players and see if he is really more up and down. Oh, was this supposed to be about Waterman? Yeah, um, good for a week, and a good score gets him to the byes without a cash drop. He really is a big yo-yo this season.

Bayley Fritsch dammit, cursed him! I own him too. That’s what I get for being a bad person. Whoo hoo, I got away with it! Wow, he is scoring so well it is really reducing the urgency of bringing in a premium forward in his spot. Probably the best of the Cardinal’s guards and looking like a hold until his bye. The below chart has his fulls season average, which is lower than his average since his role change.

Daniel Lloyd either scores big and gets a stay of execution, or gets the chop next week. He avoids the chop. I’d make some sort of guillotine joke but that is out of period for Dumas….of course so is footy. Heh, looks like the blade got stuck halfway down, but if he does badly this week it might just get unstuck.

Billy Gowers only managed a 45 and is pretty likely to start losing money.

Jack Henry: That ton has worked its way out of his system and he’s very likely to go down in price. He’s ready to go. Standard disclaimer about another lucky ton, yadda yadda yadda….

Esava Ratugolea: Had the week off.

Ben Ronke is one of the few cows that might have been worth bringing in a round after his bubble. He is looking like the 2nd best of the Cardinal’s Guards right now, although with only 4 weeks of scores its a bit hard to know for sure. But, price wise, he has a lot of money to make and has a good chance of going up in price right up to his R14 bye.

Charlie Spargo helps fill out the Cardinals Guards, and makes the “Extracted time/cash value” column useful, because you can see how even though he will have some money to make after his bye, you will be better off by downgrading him and using the cash on premiums. Well, assuming he is a cash cow for you and not a scoring cow. Over the byes they are all scoring cows, but R15 probably back to cash cow, so cash cow for trading out and chart reading purposes.

Matt Guelfi is a lot like Spargo. Same bye, same being ready to sell at his bye with some cash left to make, about the same value and profit potential. I’m sure they will find a way to separate soon enough. I tried to come up with a combo name for them, like Brangelina, but they were all bad without being funny-bad. So not-funny-bad I’m not even putting them here to prove it. Apparently I do have some sort of quality bar, even if its rather low.

 

Non-Cow Stuff

While it is hard to make a plan that lasts more than a week or two, we’re getting to the time of year when you might want to figure out when all of your cows will be ready, and when their byes are and look at who you want to bring in and when their byes are. When byes are do not change, even if how much someone costs will. I tend to find this helpful, even though what I plan never exactly works out.

Final thoughts

Feel free to ask questions in the comments; you never know what might happen. Please let me know if I forgot someone. I usually wait for 5 weeks data but can make exceptions.

Now that I’m sorta kinda making predictions, remember the Craggy Island guarantee – all predictions wrong or triple your money back!

Thanks for reading.

 

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18 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round Ten”

  1. Hi Father,

    Always look forward to your Cows post – essential reading. Like many I am praying for you to continue your successful tilt for the SC crown but I’m curious as to your reasoning not to bring in Dangerfield for Kelly – you say you can make more of an improvement elsewhere (as could I in the short term) – is it a calculated risk on Dangerfield not significantly increasing his scoring, 2 spots left in your mid and bringing him in another way, divine inspiration or something else?

    Thanks again for the great articles and good luck!

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    1. Thanks very much!

      Kelly is my M7, with Phillips/Spargo at M8. Kelly should manage a 95 average. Danger could certainly raise his average to say 125 over the byes, which is 30 points. He could go a bit higher, but so could Kelly. My M8 spot would probably manage 70 at best, could be more like 60-65. Rockliff should get a 100, and could go 110 or 120. So 125-95 = 30. 100-70 = 30. So while those cases are equal, Rocky doing well or the M8s doing worse is a lot more likely then Kelly going low or Danger going a lot higher. Plus, Rocky plays all three byes. Rocky is also much more likely to rise in price then Danger and by more.

      I can also see a case where Danger only goes at 115ish and Kelly goes at 100, in which case small gain.

      I also would like more evidence Danger is really all the way well.

      Also, I would be upgrading a non-playing Dom Barry to Rocky, adding one player to each of my bye rounds. Kelly to Danger is a playing player to another playing player over the byes, and no improvement numbers on the field wise.

      Also, if he is healthy and doing well, I can get Danger later, but I won’t want to bring in Rocky after his price starts rising.

      So a lot of things all added together. I basically think I will get more points by fixing my M8 than I do improving my M7.

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  2. Hi Father,
    Is it worth downgrading someone like Mitch Crowden at about 200k for only 80k profit? Or is it a waste of a trade?

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      1. I prefer to upgrade players like that when possible, but if the player you are downgrading them to is good and you can make good use of the money, sure. I downgraded Garlett to Guelfi round 6 for $95,200. I’d prefer to fix non-playing players over playing ones, unless you need them for a loophole.

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  3. Hey guys, probably not the greatest place to ask so will probably ask in trade talk as well but why is Travis Boak scoring better this year than last? Has he had a role change or is it just One Of Those Things™?

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  4. Dear Father,

    Thanks for the care, thought and effort that you put into this section.
    And thanks for the humour that you inject into your comments which makes our stressful job as SC coaches just that little bit lighter.

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    1. Sort of what I said above talking about my own team. If that is what gets you the most points yes, if it isn’t then do the thing that gets you the most points. If Kelly is M8 then it is a much better move then if he is M7.

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